Larry Ness
Utah State @ Saint Mary's
PICK: Utah State +4
Saturday’s “Game of the Day” among BracketBuster games has to be Utah St at St Mary’s. Utah St is ranked 25th in the AP poll (24th in the coaches’ poll) while St Mary’s is unranked by the AP but the coaches rank them 23rd. Most “bracketologists” have the Gaels in the Big Dance win or lose in the WCC tourney, although their 74-66 loss at 6-21 San Diego Wednesday night sure didn’t enhance their at-large chances. St Mary’s won 28 games last year and made the Sweet 16, a feat Utah St hasn’t accomplished despite all its success under Stew Morrill. Morrill came to Utah St prior to the 1998-99 season and beginning in his second season, has won at least 23 games in each of the last 12 years. The Aggies have earned seven NCAA bids during that span but own just one NCAA win, an upset of No. 5 seed Ohio St back in 2001. The Aggies got an at-large bid last season but they sure don’t want to count on receiving one this year. A loss here at St Mary’s would all but ensure they wouldn’t receive one in 2011, meaning a WAC tourney title would be a must. The Aggies are ninth in the nation in scoring defense at 58.4 PPG and will face a St Mary’s team averaging 80.3 PPG, which ranks 12th in the nation. The Gaels miss the size, scoring and rebounding of last year’s 6-11 ‘twins,’ Samham (21.3-10.8) and Allen (10.7-7.6). The 6-6 Jones (13.8-7.7), an ‘escapee’ from San Diego, has been a HUGE addition plus the 6-9 Young (10.3-4.8), the 6-7 Steindl (7.1-3.0) and the 6-9 Walker (6.3-3.7) comprise a solid frontcourt. However, the team’s strength this year is the backcourt duo of McConnell (16.9-6.2 APG) and Dellavedova (12.7-5.4 APG). The Aggies don’t have a player as good as St Mary’s pair but Utah St does own a very deep backcourt with Green (11.0), Pane (10.7), Williams (9.0) and Newbold (8.4-4.3). The 6-7 Wesley (14.3-7.9) will challenge Jones up front plus the 6-7 Jardine (8.4-7.8) and the 6-9 Bendall (6.2-5.6) make this an even battle inside .The edge goes to Uah St in the motivation department though, having lost to St Mary’s 68-63 at home in early December of last season and two years ago at St Mary’s 75-64 in a BracketBuster game. Take the points!
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN JOSE –1½ +120 over Colorado
That sound heard late last night was the proverbial towel being thrown in by the Av’s. Lots of folks are suggesting they got the best of the Blue Notes but we’re not buying that yet. It takes time to see which team got robbed but the Blue Notes didn’t give up much unless EJ lives up to his #1 overall pick at some point. Thus far, he hasn’t come close and he looks like he’s going to be one of those “can you believe he went first overall” guys. Jay McClement? Big deal. He’s a third line forward on 99% of the teams in this league. The Av’s gave up a potential big scorer in Chris Stewart. At times Stewart looks disinterested but he’s shown signs of brilliance many times and has 40 goals (he missed 21 games this year with a broken hand) combined between last season and this one. Kevin Shattenkirk missed a good portion of this year due to injury. However, he, too, has offensive upside and even participated in the skills competition at the all-star games. In any case, whatever happens surely doesn’t benefit the Av’s for the remainder of this season. They’ve been outscored 38-14 during their current nine-game slide and they gave up offense. With a slew of other offensive talent on the rack, with shaky goaltending (Budaj starts tonight) and in the midst of a nine-game losing streak, the Av’s will have the daunting task of facing one of the hottest teams in the league. San Jose is in the midst of an 11-2-1 stretch and there are no signs of that ending anytime soon. The Sharkies are getting great goaltending from Antti Niemi and they’re as healthy as they’ve been all season long. They should put this team away early and cover this 1½-goal line without breaking a sweat. Play: San Hose –1½ +120 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA ST. +2½ over Washington St.
This is Bracket-Buster weekend and with the Big Dance just around the corner and all eyes on college hoops, it’s also the weekend that ruins bankrolls. This one looks too easy and that’s what caught our eye. The Sun Devils are 1-12 in the conference and they’ve dropped nine in a row. The Cougars are 7-7 in the conference and they’re 17-9 overall. The Cougars also have wins over Baylor and Washington and just a five-point loss against Kansas. It’s not easy to make a case for ASU, as they’re likely going to have to win this game to cash the ticket. So, who is betting the putrid Sun Devils today taking back 2½ points or even 2 at some joints? Again, we caution you to be very careful if you were thinking of laying it. Just like the two games above, this one is sure to attract a lot of action on the chalk. Statistically, the numbers scream Washington State but stat geeks get ruined every year in every sport. This one is all about playing the side the books want action against and anytime you’re on the same side as the house you’re in pretty good hands. Play: #528 Arizona St +2½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
NORTHERN IOWA +4 over George Mason
On a Saturday afternoon with a ton of games and no NBA going, there are certain teams and matchups that slide under the radar and under normal circumstances this one might have too. George Mason is a team that has brought a lot of attention to themselves because they currently hold the nations longest winning, which now stands at 12. They not only have been winning but they’ve been destroying everything in their path. In fact, the Patriots smallest margin of victory over their last eight games is 14 points. Six of their last 12 wins have been by 20 points or more and they’re coming off a blowout win over VCU, a team that was challenging them for the CAA division title. George Mason is a virtual lock to win the title after that last win. They’ll close the season with games against Northeastern and Georgia St and there’s just no chance of them losing at home to Northeastern in their next game, which will lock up the title. Today, with a ton of attention on them, George Mason will step out of its conference and play their third road game in its past four when they play in Northern Iowa. The Panthers are no pushovers and they’ve played a way more difficult schedule than the Patriots. NIU has wins over Indiana, Iowa St., New Mexico and Wichita St. They also played Syracuse and Iowa and although they lost, they still played those programs and competed. George Mason has played a whole bunch of poor CAA teams and frankly, they have zero notable wins on their résumé. Its out of conference schedule saw them lose to N.C. State, Dayton and Wofford. Now the Patriots are a small and enticing road favorite in a game that means nothing to them and with a lot of focus on them by the betting public, they’re a recipe today for a bad wager. Play #672 Northern Iowa +4 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Charleston Southern +4½ +100 over NC WILMINGTON
This is another case of a CAA team stepping out of their conference to play a virtual unknown. NC Wilmington is that Colonial team and they’re not even a good CAA team. The Seahawks have won two in a row and three of four but they all came against CAA junk. Prior to that they lost six of seven in the conference and that’s somewhat disturbing. What’s most interesting, however, is that Charleston Southern is a team you usually cannot bet because the oddsmakers don’t post lines on their games. Only two of their 27 games this season offered a betting line and now they’re a seemingly small dog on the road against a CAA team that is 13-14 on the year and that’s 9-4 at home. Charleston Southern is 2-11 on the road and they’re just 8-8 in the Big South. Folks, this one has trap written all over it. You have to be able to recognize these games and ask yourself why would the books offer a line on this and why aren’t the Seahawks -6½ or -7? If you lay the points, you’re asking for trouble. The line and situation says so. Play: #677 Charleston Southern +4½ +100 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Telly
One of my free five plays today!
Portland -6
OC Dooley
Michigan State -3
It was one year ago when these same two teams squared off in primetime as Illinois ended up a 78-73 winner. The hype and excitement caused by ESPN Gameday being on campus helped the Illni and tonight the tables are completely turned. Even though it has been a dreadful season for Michigan State who has lost outright 6 times in the most recent 8 outings, the ESPN Gameday crew are in town in part because this Spartans program has been so successful long term and also has made consecutive visits to the NCAA Final Four. I have found out that Michigan State Tom Izzo has actually CHALLENGED fans to be at their vocal best with National-TV hype in town and that certainly has not been the case this campaign where there has been much local criticism. The most important thing to consider regarding Michigan State is that they have successfully COVERED the spread in consecutive outings, which is in stark contrast to the prior nine games where the team went a disastrous 0-9 ATS. The latest loss for the Spartans was on Tuesday where they stayed inside the betting number of a 61-51 outright setback on the road at mighty Ohio State. Despite yet another straight-up setback there were actual positives in that game especially from Derrick Nix who demonstrated some fancy footwork and good post defense on Jared Sullinger. Also on Tuesday Michigan State got healthy contributions from freshman Keith Appling (6 assists) and Adreian Payne (10 points in 11 minutes) off the bench. The Spartans also have to be relieved that Kalin Lucas is finally rounding into form after a long bout with an achillies injury. Long term Michigan State is a productive 24-10 ATS when revenging a “same season” loss against an opponent