SPORTS WAGERS
Gleison Tibau -110 over Evan Dunham
As one of the unofficial “gatekeepers” of the lightweight division, Gleison Tibau presents a tough challenge for any fighter looking to move up in the ranks. Known for his wrestling and ground game, Tibau uses his size to overpower his opponents.
Starting his UFC career with four straight victories, Evan Dunham was looked at as a possible contender in the lightweight division before losing three of his past five fights. While Dunham’s record is impressive, he has lost to the better opponents he has faced. Although he is an exciting fighter, we feel he is not ready to defeat an opponent of Tibau’s caliber. He has also shown that he has problems facing solid wrestlers, which is not a good thing when you are matched up against someone like Tibau. In a fight where he is once again the bigger fighter expect Tibau to use his wrestling to grind out a victory.
Frankie Edgar +175 over Jose Aldo
The champion Jose Aldo defends his featherweight title against the former lightweight champion in a dream matchup. Coming off of a controversial loss to Benson Henderson, Frankie Edgar makes his debut in a weight class that many feel he is better suited for. Known for his wrestling, boxing, cardio and resiliency, “The Answer” presents a tough match up for the champion.
Returning from a long layoff due to injury, Aldo is fighting in the octagon for the first time in over a year. Ring rust could be a definite factor and against an opponent like Edgar, that likes to push the pace, it could prove costly for Aldo. Both fighters are evenly matched with Aldo possessing the power advantage. However Edgar has shown that he has the chin to withstand punishment and also has the speed and evasiveness to avoid strikes. If he can withstand Aldo’s leg kicks, look for Edgar to attack from all angles using his boxing and then look to secure takedowns which could be the deciding factor in what should be a close fight. At the price being offered, the value definitely lies with Edgar.
Jeff Alexander
Phoenix Suns +8.5
The Suns have struggled on the road this season, but I like them to keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think. They match up well with Golden State, which has been evident in the last two meetings which have been decided by 4 points combined. In fact, the Suns have won or lost by fewer than 8.5 points in 15 straight meetings.
Dave Price
Atlanta Hawks -7
This is a game Atlanta wants badly. You might recall that it was brutally embarrassed by 39 points in Chicago last month. In addition to holding the motivational edge, the Hawk's have the advantage in terms of rest. They have had two days' rest while Chicago just played last night. To make matters worse for the Bulls, they are expected to be without Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich this evening. The home team has held the advantage in this series. It has won 4 of the last 5 meetings with each of the wins coming by double digits. The Hawks defeated the Bulls 92-75 in the season's first meeting in Atlanta. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. Also, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lay the points.
Joe Duffy
Western Illinois vs. IUPUI
Play: Western Illinois
We have been fading IUPUI all year as they are ravaged by injuries. They have just seven scholarship players. They did finally beat us last week against their rival Fort Wayne. That snapped a four-game spread skid, but extended their losing streak to eight in a row.
What is especially tough on them is that they lost a heartbreaker in OT, so it is a difficult bounceback game. They have two okay options in Mitchell Patton and Donovan Gibbs, but this team is very thin in talent.
Western Illinois is also off a loss, but to a very good Oakland team that was playing a rare home game. Each of their four previous losses was met with a win and three with a cover in the next game.
IUPUI has had no home court advantage, going 1-5 to the number, while Western is 7-4 and 7-3 against the spread on the road.
Already decimated by injuries and now off a heart-breaking loss, they are no match for the conference leader, especially considering there is almost no significant home road splits.
Wunderdog
Portland at St. Mary's
Pick: Portland +20
The St. Mary's Gaels used to be the doormat in the West Coast Conference, but over the last few years that has changed dramatically as they now have become the biggest challenger of the strong hold Gonzaga has had on the conference. The Gaels are 18-4 on the season and a perfect 12-0 at home, and have won six straight games. They have not brought their "A" game to these mismatches however, as they are just 1-4 ATS as a chalk of -17 or more on the season. Portland has lost and failed to cover each of their last five, but they should be alive tonight as St. Mary's held them to a season low 38 points at home in their previous meeting. Conference teams favored by -20 or more have failed to an 84-134 ATS mark. Take the points.
Andrew Lange
Idaho State at North Dakota
Play: North Dakota
Since 2009, when asked to play back-to-back road games in Big Sky play with only one day of rest, Idaho State is 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS. Seven of those 10 losses came by more than seven points, tonight’s line against North Dakota. This shouldn’t come as a shock seeing as the Bengals have been Big Sky bottom feeders for quite some time and travel within the league can be brutal. Here they go from Greeley, Colorado (lost to Northern Colorado by 15 on Thursday) to Grand Forks, North Dakota – I can’t confirm but I seriously doubt they chartered a flight but instead like most mid-major schools, took commercial flights sprinkled in with a few hours on a bus. North Dakota isn’t a great team but we’ve seen signs its home court is going to be tough on opposing teams. In mid-January, the (they no longer have a team nickname for PC reasons) rolled off three straight home wins against Montana State, Eastern Washington and Portland State. The closest margin was nine points. The win over Montana State was particularly noteworthy considering MSU beat UNC on a Thursday and in the exact same travel situation as Idaho State lost to UND, 86-73, on Saturday. Some of what I speak of is accounted for in the line, but at -7, we're still in a price range where if North Dakota wins, which I'm confident they will, there is a good chance they’ll cash a ticket.
Hollywood Sports
Nashville at San Jose
Prediction: Under
San Jose (7-0-0) remains the last remaining unbeaten team in the NHL after their 3-2 victory in the shootout over Edmonton on Thursday. The Sharks have won played 4 straight games Under the Total following a victory. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing two goals or less in their last game. Furthermore, this will be San Jose's sixth straight game at home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total on their home ice. Nashville (2-2-0-3) enters this game coming off their 2-1 win in a shootout in Los Angeles against the Kings. The Predators have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring two goals or less in their last game. The Under is also 4-1-2 in their last 7 games coming off a victory. Nashville stays on the road for this one -- and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road. Lastly, in the last 8 meetings between these two teams, the Under is 5-2-1. While the Under is listed at 5, these are too strong of team trends to not take your chances with the Under while living with a Push if the final score lands on 5. Take the Under in this one.
Steve Merril
Bobcats vs. Rockets
Play: Over
These two teams just met 12 days ago with Houston beating Charlotte 100-94. That game was played at 2:00 pm ET on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day; it was a Monday afternoon. That day is notorious for sluggish offensive performances, and we saw that from both teams. The Bobcats and Rockets combined to shoot just 40.6% (63-155) from the field and 36.4% (16-44) from three-point land. Charlotte hasn’t played for two days so the Bobcats should play much better offense than they did in their last two games when they scored just 85 and 78 points. Houston’s defense allows 103 points per game this season so the Bobcats should have success, especially since this game will be played at a fast pace. Houston’s offense is in tremendous form right now. The Rockets have scored a total of 454 points over their last four games while shooting an incredible 49.7% (163-328) from the field. Houston’s offense should have another good game tonight as the Bobcats defense has allowed 100 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 44.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. The Rockets are in terrific rhythm as a team and they understand how they need to play in order to have success. “Everybody was running,” said Carlos Delfino. “Everybody got involved. If you move the ball, everybody can find open shots. It makes basketball easy.” We expect both teams to go up and down the court making this a high-scoring game between the Bobcats and Rockets on Saturday night.
NHL Predictions
Bruins / Maple Leafs Over 5.5
The Bruins won all 6 meetings between these two teams last year. In those games we saw totals of 8, 9, 5, 9, 7, and 8 with the OVER going 5-1. The Bruins have scored 15 goals over their last 4 games, and are coming off a game where they gave up 7 goals against Buffalo. The Leafs have scored 18 goals over their last 5 games for a little over 3 goals per game during that span. They gave up 19 during that span, also putting them a little over 3 goals against per game during those games. The OVER is 25-9-2 in the Bruins last 36 road games. The OVER is 20-7-1 in these two teams last 28 meetings and 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Toronto. I see no reason why this one won't be a higher scoring game and get over today's total.
Tampa Bay Lightning -109
The Rangers enter tonight's game with a 3-4 record with their last game being a 3-0 loss at home vs Pittsburgh. The Rangers have scored 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their 7 games. Tampa Bay on the other hand is 6-1 on the season and they've been on a very impressive run lately. Tampa Bay scored 8 goals in an 8-3 victory last night at home, and have now scored an average of 5.29 goals per game to easily lead the league in that category. They are also 12th in goals against per game, and their power play is 3rd in the league. The Lightning split their 4 meetings with New York last year, but are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs the Rangers. In my opinion we get a very good price here today on maybe the NHL's hottest team right now.
Detroit Red Wings -128
The Red Wings beat a solid St Louis Blues team at home last night to improve to 4-2-1 on the year. They've won their past two games and 3 of 4. The Blue Jackets have lost 2 straight games and are 2-5-1 on the season. Columbus has scored just 11 goals this year and sit 29th in the NHL with just 1.62 goals per game. The Red Wings already beat the Blue Jackets in Columbus this year, although it was a tight 4-3 shootout victory. The Red Wings went 4-2 against Columbus last year and are 9-4 in their last 13 meetings in Columbus. Detroit has scored 4+ goals in three of their last four games and if they can find the net tonight they should be able to take care of a Blue Jackets team that is struggling to score. Take the Red Wings.
San Jose Sharks -1.5 +195
The Nashville Predators enter this game 2-2-3 on the year, somehow finding ways to get points although they've struggled offensively. The San Jose Sharks on the other hand have had no problems offensively helping them to a 7-0 start to the year. San Jose is ranked 2nd in the league behind Tampa Bay averaging 3.86 goals per game, compared to the Predators who are dead last in the NHL with 1.57 goals per game. The Sharks sit second with just 1.71 goals against per game. The Sharks are 16-7 in their last 23 meetings with Nashville and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games vs the Preds. Also note that 5 of the Sharks 7 wins have been by 2 or more goals. I like San Jose on the puck line here.