DAVE COKIN
CLEMSON AT NORTH CAROLINA ST
PLAY: CLEMSON +2
If there’s an award for grit, this Clemson entry is a definite nominee. This team can grind with the best of them, and that attitude has served the Tigers well all season. Nevertheless, they’re currently just on the outside looking in as far as that proverbial bubble is concerned. So this is a very big road test for Clemson, and one they really need in the win column for their at-large resume.
North Carolina State is an enigma to me. Not that the Wolfpack were supposed to be an elite ACC entry this season, but I don’t know anyone who was envisioning this team sitting at 3-10 in league play heading down the homestretch. There has been the occasional flash of brilliance. NC State has a very impressive win over Miami, and they blew out Pittsburgh on the road. But the good has been overwhelmed by the bad, and if I had to point the finger at one area that has been the culprit, it’s shoddy defense.
Next up for the Wolfpack is a home date with North Carolina. In what is basically a lost season to this point, it’s entirely possible that NC State will be looking past Clemson today in a game that really doesn’t mean all that much. Of course, if NC State comes out of the gate fast, that all goes out the window and all their focus will be on this opponent. On the flip side, if Clemson gets out of the gate in good fashion today, I think they’ll have a decent chance to maintain control throughout the game.
The numbers favor Clemson. They’re winners on all three sets of projections I utilize at this time of the season. When that takes place and my side is also cast as the underdog, it’s pretty much an auto-play for me unless there are some mitigating circumstances that come into play. In this instance, those intangibles also favor the visitors. So it’s Clemson plus the bucket for me.
Rob Vinciletti
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State -1
The Cowboys will look to bounce back off a blowout loss at Kansas and take on a Texas Tech team off a big upset win over Oklahoma. OK.St has won 16 straight at home vs Texas Tech and have covered 3 of 4 as a home favorite of 2 or less. Tech is 4-25 on the road, including 1-14 if the posted total is 120 to 130. Look for Ok. St to win this one.
Marc Lawrence
Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -3
Edges - Orange: 5-1 ATS with same season loss revenge of 10 or more points in this series. Panthers: 0-4 ATS versus conference opponents off a loss this season. With Pittsburgh 0-9 ATS in games off a win when facing a winning opponent off a loss, including 0-5 this season, we recommend a 1* play on Syracuse.
Will Rogers
Avalanche vs. Oilers
Play: Oilers -110
The Oilers host the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday, and they'll look to snap a three game losing streak. The Avs come in as winners of three of their last four, but they might be in for a rough ride here on the road against a talented young Oilers team. My money is on Edmonton at home.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Home ice has been key in this series, with the home team prevailing in five of the last seven meetings between the two teams. Edmonton has won four of it's last five home games against Colorado.
2. Connor McDavid - The rookie phenom is lighting up opposing goaltenders since his return from injury. He has five goals and nine assists in his last nine games overall. He's tallied seven points in his last four home games.
3. X-Factor - The Avalanche are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when coming off two days rest.
Scott Spreitzer
Oregon State vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -10½
A little payback will be on the mind of the Ducks after losing 70-57 on January 3. Oregon suffered a horrible first half that night, shot poorly for the game and even got out-worked on the glass. Plenty of motivation in this one, especially when you also consider they have dropped two straight games heading into Saturday, snapping a six-game winning streak. Both of the losses came on the road and they're back at the friendly confines in Eugene, where they're a perfect 15-0 SU this season and on a 22-0 run since last year. Oregon State's offense bogs down on the road and they're horrible on the glass away from home. They'll also face a Ducks' team that forces over 15 turnovers per game in Eugene. The Beavers are on a 2-10 ATS slide on the road against teams with a winning home record, while Oregon enters on an 8-1 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record.
Jim Feist
Knicks vs. Wolves
Play: Over 204½
New York is in the middle of the pack defensively in points allowed. The Over is 6-2 in the Knicks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. They allowed 111 points in a loss to Brooklyn and play the second of a back to back spot here, so the home team will run right at 'em. Young Minnesota pays no attention to defense, No. 23 in points allowed, No. 26 in field goal shooting defense. But they can score, topping 102 points in 5 straight recently, part of a 10-1-1 run over the total. Minnesota is 5-0 over the total at home and 18-7-1 over playing on no days rest. And when these teams clash the overt is 4-1.
Jimmy Adams
Butler vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -11
This may very well be the year that Villanova makes their run in the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats have a history of going out early in the Big Dance, but this is Coach Jay Wright's most talented team in quite some time. In their last game, the Cats went into Temple and dominated the Owls, winning by a score of 83-67. Temple may not be a top notch team, but they have knocked off some strong competition at home this season.
Turnovers have been a focus in practice this week for Nova. Despite tearing apart most of their opponents, the Wildcats have been turning the ball over too often. Focusing on cutting down on giving the ball away can only be a positive for us, as this team is clearly playing like the best team in the country.
The Bulldogs are a team that doesn't pass the "eye test." Basically, they beat lower competition to keep their record respectable, but when asked to step up in class they just don't have the talent level to compete. Expect the Wildcats to easily take care of business at home against an inferior Butler squad.
Heath Mac
Duke vs. Louisville
Play: Under 144
A big game here and one we are looking forward to. Duke are coming off a thrilling 1 point win over arch rivals North Carolina 74-73. That win came at a cost though, with Matt Jones going down injured and with the Blue Devils already playing a 7 man rotation with Amile Jefferson out, the Blue Devils are in a bad position. Jones was playing over 32 minutes per game and will be tough to replace. As such, we think it will be the offense that suffers as Jones leads the Blue Devils in 3 point attempts on the season and helps space the floor. Dukes road defense is solid, allowing 72.5 ppg (ranked 118th).
Louisville is in great form and getting the W’s against all comers. However Duke did beat them 2 weeks ago on the road 72-65 and the Cards will be keen to atone here. It is their defense (60.7 ppg, ranked 7th) that will be the key to a Louisville win. The Cards are a defensive juggernaut, but particularly at home where they are allowing a measly 55.3 ppg, good enough for 2nd in the country. In their last 2 home games, they have allowed 58 and 47 points. This will be a tight game and with a restricted line up, the Blue Devils may be happy to play at the Cards slower pace.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Duke's last 5 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 6 games and UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 7 games at home.
Kyle Hunter
Ole Miss vs. Auburn
Play: Ole Miss -4½
The Auburn Tigers are extremely short-handed in the backcourt without Kareem Canty. Auburn's offense was a joke in their first 3 games without Canty. They shot horrific percentages against mediocre defenses in Georgia, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. Last game Auburn buried 15 out of 23 shots from 3 point range. The Tigers won in shocking fashion at Arkansas. I don't expect them to be able to keep that pace up.
Ole Miss is getting healthier again with Saiz playing again in the post. Stefan Moody should play here as he has improved from a previous hamstring injury. The Rebels offense is fully capable of putting up a big number against a poor Auburn defense. I don't think Auburn has the firepower to keep up. With 5 being a very important number in college basketball, I recommend laying no more than 5 points here.
Bob Harvey
Bucks vs. Hawks
Play: Over 205
Two teams harboring playoff hopes collide tonight in Atlanta where the Hawks host the Milwaukee Bucks. Game time is 7:30 PM ET at Phillips Arena where Atlanta is favored by -8.5 with the total at 205. The Two teams coming off close losses square off tonight
The Bucks (22-23, 27-27 ATS) suffered a self-inflicted 98-95 home loss to the Charlotte Hornets. They committed nine turnovers in the fourth quarter that the Hornets converted into 15 points.
The Hawks (31-25, 27-28 ATS) are coming off a 115-111 home loss to the Miami Heat. Kyle Korver, who led the NBA in 3-point shooting each of the past two years, has finally found his stroke finished 4-of-7 from beyond the arc and is 12-of-21 from 3-point range in his past four games. Backcourt mate Jeff Teague scored 23 points with seven assists and is averaging 21.3 points and 6.3 assists in his past four games.
The OVER is 17-8 in the Bucks last 25 vs. Eastern Conference. The OVER is 8-3 in the Hawks last 11 vs. the NBA Central. Atlanta is also 9-4 to the high side in their past 13 home games.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Atlanta and 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.
The Bucks are 5-11 ATS in the past 16 meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference.
Matt Fargo
St Josephs vs. Davidson
Play: Davidson +2.5
We won with Davidson on Tuesday as it took out Richmond to move to 7-6 in the Atlantic Ten and break away from a couple teams. The Wildcats are two games out of fourth place in the conference and the upcoming schedule is pretty doable. They are 13-1 at home with the lone loss coming against VCU at the end of January and while there are not many quality home wins, this has always been one of the toughest environments in the country. This is the second of three straight home games and Davidson will be out to hand St. Joes its first road loss of the season. The Hawks are the only team in the country that have yet to lose a true road game and they have absolutely dominated conference games, winning by double-digits in five of six A-10 road games. It has been a very impressive feat and because of the size of the wins, they are perfect against the number as well and overall, are 11-1 ATS in road and neutral court games. This helps us here of course as we are dealing with a much different number than we normally would be dealing with as an outright win means a cover.
Cajun Sports
Bucks vs. Hawks
Play: Under 205
This matchup features our NBA complimentary selection for Saturday. Our numbers favor the Under in the Bucks vs. Hawks contest in Atlanta. We note that nineteen of thirty-five meetings between the two clubs in Atlanta has seen the Under cash while five of the last eight meetings overall have also come in on the low side of the oddsmakers total. When these two have met under the current price range they are a perfect 0-3 Under the last three. The Bucks are 0-5 Under after playing their last three games at home and now play in the current price range. Milwaukee is 2-7 Under after playing their last three at home and now play in any price range. The Bucks are 15-30-1 Under coming off an Under in their last game and now playing in the conference road. When Atlanta is playing at home and facing Milwaukee and the Bucks are coming off an ATS loss and going Under at home in their last game the Under is a perfect 0-5 the last five meetings in this situation. We want to Play UNDER on NBA road underdogs when their next game is against a team they lost to by more than ten points earlier in the season. These road pups have seen the Under cash at a rate of 84-115 Under for fifty-eight percent winners.
Power Sports
Kentucky vs. Texas A&M
Pick: Texas A&M
It's hard to recall now, but once upon a time it was Texas A&M sitting pretty atop the SEC standings, with a top 5 ranking nationally to its name no less. That was just a month ago, in fact. But five losses in their last seven games overall have left the Aggies unranked and searching for answers. Can they get back here?
Well, technically, they already did get "back on track" w/ a 71-56 win over Ole Miss on Tuesday. That game took place right here in College Station and I'm proud to say that I was on it. Things weren't looking so good early on as the home team fell into an early 20-11 hole. But from there, they outscored the Rebels 60-36 and held them to just 31.8 percent shooting for the game. A&M remains a strong 14-1 SU at home this season, outscoring its opponents by nearly 18 points per game.
Kentucky is the hot SEC team right now as Coach Cal has this group riding high off four consecutive double digit wins. The latest came in Lexington, against Tennessee, though UK could not hold on for the cover there (as big 17.5-pt chalk). I think all that perceived "momentum" works against the Wildcats here though as all six losses this season have come on the road where they are just 5-6 SU overall (includes neutral site games). In "true" road games, their record is only 3-5 SU. The problem away from home has been on the defensive end where they allow roughly 11 more points per game than they do at Rupp Arena. A&M happens to lead the SEC in defensive efficiency, so look for them to pull this one out.
Robert Ferringo
Take Louisville (-6) over
Oh how quickly things change. Less than two weeks ago Louisville was the ranked team when these two locked up in Cameron Indoor. Duke won a close, hard-fought game and now Louisville gets to throw it back at them. The Cardinals are not only motivated by revenge, but they are also catching the Blue Devils in a letdown spot after their huge mid-week rivalry game at North Carolina. It's a solid spot for the Cardinals, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. I think the Cardinals beat the number here.
Strike Point Sports
Take Kentucky (Pick) over Texas A&M
The Aggies have absolutely zero confidence right now. Texas A&M has dropped four straight and five of their past six overall. And for all the good they did to begin the year, it appears there really isn't much going right for this team in February. And considering all of the above, this is the wrong team to host at the moment. Kentucky has been coming out swinging ever since their back-to-back losses at Kansas and Tennessee a few weeks ago. The Wildcats have reeled off three straight SEC wins by 19, 34 and 27. I don't think any team in the league can slow them at the moment, and certainly not a struggling bunch like the Aggies. Kentucky continues its top form while Texas A&M stays in its slump. UK wins in College Station.