Indian Cowboy
Minnesota (-1.5) over New York
We expect the line to be relatively small one way or another in this contest and we have Minnesota likely winning this affair by 7 to 8 points. We like the Timberwolves here as this is a game they will undoubtedly get up for as they lost to this New York team by 5 points back in December and will have revenge coming into this game. This is a Minnesota team that beat Toronto to close out the year as 6-point underdogs at home, which speaks volumes as they have won 3 out of their last 4 contests, including beating the LA Clippers and Chicago Bulls as well. The Knicks will have bigger fish to fry on this road trip and with Minnesota having revenge, being 6-0 ATS against teams with a straight up winning record of late, this sets up nicely for the young Timberwolves to beat the Knicks at home - note, this team is not going to the playoffs, so beating well known teams in the Eastern Conference or getting up to play elite Western Conference teams gives this team a chance to use as a benchmark of improvement as the season progresses.
Allen Eastman
Gonzaga (-6) over St. Mary's
Gonzaga and St. Mary's are major rivals in the WCC, and this is a big game for both teams. Right now these two teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in the standings, and this game will likely decide the regular-season champions. St. Mary's also needs this win to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume. This is a big revenge game for the Bulldogs. They lost by three points at St. Mary's back on Jan. 21 and they will not want to be swept by the Gaels. Gonzaga had beaten St. Mary's eight straight times before losing that game this year. They have really dominated this series, and I think that they will even it up. St. Mary's is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games, and I don't think they will get the cash in this one. Go with the homer here.
Stephen Nover
Marquette -3
This is Marquette's revenge game of the year after it lost at home to DePaul, 57-56, on a 3-point play by Billy Garrett Jr. with 1.1 seconds left one month ago. The Golden Eagles haven't lost consecutive games to the Blue Demons since 1991-92.
Marquette has good young starting talent. Henry Ellenson is not only the best player on the court but one of the finest in the country. The Golden Eagles, though, have a weak bench. They rely on their starters and they need to rebound well to beat DePaul.
The Golden Eagles, though, catch a huge scheduling break here. They have had a week off, their longest time off since Christmas break. They also have outrebounded five of their last six opponents. So look for Marquette to not only be highly motivated, but fresh, too, with their starters ready for big minutes.
Dave Essler
Clemson +2
Might be able to get a better number later - but I will be traveling this morning. Clemson is simply the better team, needs the game more, and I almost always fade NC State before they play North Carolina - which they do on Wednesday.
John Ryan
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Play: Oklahoma +4
10* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on West Virginia in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-37 ATS mark good for 65.4% winners since 1997. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA) after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Sooners are a solid 90-45 ATS (+40.5 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game; 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games when they score 75 to 80 points in a game; WVU is just 24-54 ATS (-35.4 Units) when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game. Last, Sooners are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points Sooners are in a valley type situation, BUT are still one of the best teams in the nation. WVU is of course a top-level team, but based on the metrics are not at the Sooner’s levels. WVU relies on a suffocating pressing defense to win games. However, Oklahoma is the type of offense that can overcome that strength. Sooners rank 13th scoring 82.8 PPG and 20th in overall effective FG percentage. The biggest weakness that WVU has is that they cannot shoot the three and rank 300th hitting just 31.4% of those shots. Sooners have tremendous length and can pack the paint making it even more difficult for WVU to score.
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati -2½
The Bearcats are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Huskies. Connecticut is getting a lot of respect right now and are coming into this game off back-to-back impressive home wins over Tulsa and SMU. I believe that has the Huskies overvalued on the road against a talented Cincinnati team that is going to be extremely motivated to not only bounce back from a 68-70 loss at Tulsa last time out, but get a much-needed signature win.
Keep in mind the Bearcats went on the road and beat UConn 58-57 back on 1/28. While the Huskies will be out for revenge, this is a tough spot for them off that big win against SMU. You also have to factor in that Cincinnati is 12-3 at home this season and have won 5 straight at home against conference opponents.
Connecticut is just 24-44 ATS in their last 68 road games after playing 2 straight games at home and 29-50 ATS in their last 79 off 2 or more consecutive home wins. The Huskies are also 0-2 ATS this season when revenging a same season loss and 1-3 ATS in their last 4 off a win by 6 points or less.
Tony George
Xavier vs. Georgetown
Play: Xavier -4
I have an early opening line as of Friday at -2 for Xavier on this and no doubt the public will drive this line higher, and while I like to fade the public more times than not, I would have to agree. There is no doubt in the Xavier locker room all week on the whiteboard the score of 81-72 was displayed – that was the score of the home defeat suffered at the hands of the Hoyas last month. Since then things have changed and in my mind Xavier is going to be an Elite 8 team, and possibly and a Final 4 team this season. Georgetown has been on a downward spiral as of late.
The Hoya’s have dropped 5 out of their last 6 games and I doubt they can repeat a 51% from the floor performance that they had in game 1 of this series, hitting 80% from the charity stripe and playing a team that only hit 35% from the floor in that game. With those numbers you are going to win, but I doubt we see a repeat against one of the nation’s best teams in round 2. I doubt the Hoyas can match points all day with Xavier who is clearly in revenge mode here and they are 8-2 ATS their 10 Saturday games, and 9-3 ATS on the road this season. Revenge is sweet.
Ray Monohan
Warriors vs. Clippers
Play: Warriors -5
The Warriors and Clippers go at it on Saturday night and this is the perfect bounce back spot for Golden State. The Warriors were demolished in Portland last night and with only 5 losses on the season, the Warriors don't let losing streaks happen. They match up well here in this spot as they have gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Pacific Division. They've been dominating top tier teams this season and when the spotlight comes out, they certainly perform at a high level. Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.Warriors are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games following a straight up loss.
Tony Karpinski
Warriors vs. Clippers
Play: Warriors -5
Golden State is off a rare loss last night and they got hammered. Klay Thompson has been terrific over the last 10 games, scoring 24ppg. And with Harrison Barnes always being excellent with helping to double up, he will help with Chris Paul when needed, and take care of business. 38 year old Paul Pierce hasn't shown up in some time, and with Luc Richard Mbah a Moute playing sub par over the last 6-7 games, it will be the same outcome for 2 staples in their front court. Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record Golden State wins here on Saturday night!
Alex Smart
Blues vs. Coyotes
Play: Blues -133
The St.Louis Blues are red hot and have won four straight games, and have dominated opponents from the Pacific divison like their hosts Arizona this season, and in the past winning 20 of their L/28 games. One of the key reasons for the Blues dominating nature recently , is because of the play of their starting goalie Elliot who is 11-3-2 in his L/16 starts including 5-0-1 in his L/6 games between the pipes. Elliott is 5-2-0 with a 1.71 goals-against average and two shutouts versus Arizona and will be the key cog, in a game Im betting the Blues win tonight as road chalk. Coyotes are 7-22 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Blues are 5-2 in their last 7 road games.Blues are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Arizona.
Larry Ness
Ohio St. vs. Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska
Thad Matta spent one year at Butler and three at Xavier (never won less than 24 games and all four teams made NCAA appearances), before taking over at Ohio St. This marks his 12th season at Columbus with all 11 of his previous teams winning 20-plus games. NINE of the 11 previous years Ohio St has earned an NCAA bid and three teams have won 30-plus games, two of those reaching the Final 4. However, Year 12 has been struggle, as Ohio St’s win this past Tuesday against Michigan gives the Buckeyes a modest 17-10 record (9-5 in Big Ten play) and surely a questionable at-best, at-large resume.
Tuesday’s win only moderately helps a resume that included only one RPI-Top 50 victory (Kentucky) before beating the Wolverines. A trio of forwards lead the way for Ohio St, the 6-7 Loving (12.6-5.3), the 6-7 Bates-Diop (11.9-6.6) and 6-4 small forward Tate (11.6-6.2). PG Lyle (10.0-4.4 APG) and fellow guard Williams (8.1) are the backcourt mainstays , while the 6-11 Thompson (7.0-5.1) and the 6-10 Giddens (3.9-3.9) split time at center. Ohio St does not have a senior on the roster and after this game in Lincoln, the Buckeyes finish with two games vs No. 8 Michigan St and one against No. 4 Iowa (uh-oh!).
Tim Miles came to Nebraska a few years back and in his second season (2013-14), led the Cornhuskers to a rare NCAA appearance (19-13, overall). However, last year’s team was a HUGE disappointment, finishing 13-18 and a woeful 310th (out of 351) in scoring at 61.5 PPG (shot 41.2 % overall, including 28.4% on threes). This year’s team is only 14-13 (6-8 in Big Ten play) and going nowhere but Nebraska has averaged 73.3 PPG, 11.8 points higher than last year which is the largest single-season increase in school history. Last year’s leading scorer (Petteway at 18.2 PPG) is gone but the 6-7 White (a Kansas transfer) has taken over by averaging g a solid 17.5 PPG and 6.1 RPG. 6-7 big guard Shavon Shields has had another another very good season, chipping in with 15.7 & 6.0. Junior guard Webster contributes 9.7 PPG off the bench and freshman guard Watson (8.8) has developed into a solid starter.
The problem for Nebraska here is that the Cornhuskers most likely will be playing a fourth straight game without three-time captain and second-leading scorer Shields, who remains in the school's concussion protocol. The better news is that 6-7 freshman Jack McVeigh has made three straight starts in place of the injured Shields, scoring a career-high 17 points in Nebraska’s recent game with Indiana. The injury to Shields has opened the door for younger players like McVeigh and sophomore Jake Hammond (2.6 points, 3.2 rebounds) to see more playing time.
With or without Shields, Nebraska grabs a home win over an Ohio St team which “just doesn’t have it” this season.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Florida Gators over the South Carolina Gamecocks.
Sure looks like the Gamecocks are impostors as we head into the final weeks of the regular season in college buckets, as South Carolina's shocking back-to-back losses (at home last Saturday in ugly fashion to Kentucky, and midweek at a bad Missouri team) leaves way more questions than answers for Frank Martin's team.
Florida is coming into this game off a solid road win at Georgia, a team that South Carolina did lose to in Athens earlier this season.
The Gators have been able to cover each of their last 4 meeting at South Carolina, and the road team stands at 20-6-1 against the spread the past 27 in this series.
Any points a plus, so line up right now for a play on Florida.
3* FLORIDA
Brad Wilton
Let's side with St. Joe's to notch the conference road win and cover as they look to beef up their at-large credentials for the upcoming Bog Dance selection.
Davidson has been on an uptick with wins in 3 of their last 4 games, but St. Joseph's has been playing on a higher-level for quite some time now, as the Hawks have won their last 4 games, and have lost outright just once in their last dozen games contested.
Phil Martelli's bunch has also covered in their last 4 wins, and they do own the lone conference win between the schools, a 75-70 win last season against a far better Davidson team in Philadelphia.
Have to lay the short wood with the Hawks today.
4* ST. JOSEPH'S
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 18-7 runwith complimentary plays: Oklahoma at WEST VIRGINIA (-3)
The STORYLINE in this game today - We have a huge rematach on our hands today, as West Virginia hosts Oklahoma in a highly anticipated Big 12 contest. I contemplated the Sooners' resilience factor, but after hitting my DVR and reviewing WVU's aggressive defense that forced Oklahoma into one of its worst shooting performances of the season, I opted against it.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is West Virginia's home court. The Mountaineers nearly pulled out the victory in Norman last month. This time around, I expect Bob Huggins' boys to shut down the third-ranked Sooners' three-guard lineup in Morgantown. I know West Virginia might be short-handed, but I've seen how this team comes together.
BOTTOM LINE is - West Virginia is catching Oklahoma at the perfect time, as the Sooners have hit a wall offensively, shooting 38.6 percent from the field and 30.7 from long range during a disappointing 1-3 stretch. The Mountaineers, whose 18.6 turnovers forced per game ranks second in the country, lead the Big 12 in scoring defense (65.6) and turnover margin (plus-4.5) while topping the nation with 10.2 steals per contest. The Sooners have lost their last two trips to Morgantown.
4* WEST VIRGINIA
Chris Jordan
Though this one is on the road, I think there's a bit of revenge on the horizon, and that's why I'm taking Kansas to dominate the Sunflower Showdown tonight.
Yes, the Jayhawks have lost two straight in Manhattan for the first time in over three decades, but the second-ranked Jayhawks look to snap that skid while extend their winning streak to seven.
I say they do it.
Kansas has won 50 of the last 55 meetings with the Wildcats, and 27 of its last 31 on the road. But, the Jayhawks have lost consecutive matchups in Manhattan for the first time since a four-game skid from 34 seasons ago.
With Kansas State sitting in eighth in the conference, I don't see it having much of a chance. We saw the Jayhawks dominate the Wildcats on Feb. 3, winning 77-59 while shooting 55.1 percent.
Kansas coach Bill Self emphasized the team's road efforts and says he want to see his team perform, challenging it in this one. I suspect we'll see a double-digit win.
3* KANSAS