Chris Jordan
With my freebie for Saturday, I'm laying the small number with Murray State on the road, at Austin Peay.
I'm looking for revenge here, as the Racers are in the running for an Ohio Valley Conference West division regular-season crown, and might not be sweating it as much had it won at home against the Governors.
Murray State is 14-12 this season, but 8-5 in Ohio Valley Conference play. That 76-73 home loss two weeks ago to this Austin Peay team is still stinging. The result shook up the conference standings, but the Racers come in having won two straight.
The Racers come in with a share of first place in the OVC West, tied with UT Martin. UTM won its game Thursday at home, 87-84 in overtime over Eastern Illinois, and the two finish the regular season against each other in Murray (Feb. 27).
A win, obviously, puts the Racers in the driver's seat. I'm banking on a big revenge factor and will side with the road chalk.
1* MURRAY STATE
Scott Delaney
For my second complimentary winner on Saturday, it is out of the Big Sky Conference, where I'm siding with the Idaho State Bengals to cover the number in Cedar City, Utah, where the Southern Utah Thunderbirds have struggled all season.
While I know Southern Utah holds a 15-10 edge in the series, the T-Birds are a disappointing 4-20 and 2-12 in Big Sky Conference play this season.
SUU has never been a downright powerhouse out of the Big Sky, but you could always expect a solid effort. This year, however, it is averaging 69.6 points a game and allowing 83.3.
The Bengals won 87-68 in Pocatello on Jan. 28, and should have no trouble in this one, taking advantage of a team that is scoring 69.8 points and shooting .433 percent from the field during conference games.
Lay the small road chalk.
4* IDAHO STATE
Brad Wilton
Saturday free play winner is the Warriors to bounce-back from last night's clobbering at the hands of the Blazers with the win and cover in Los Angeles tonight against the Clippers.
Golden State got handed their worst loss of the season, and now someone needs to pay....that someone is the L.A. Clippers who the Warriors have handled in both meetings this season, and 4 in a row since last season.
Golden State has covered in their last pair of visits to the Staples Center, and I see no reason why they won't cover tonight against a Clippers team that did toy with San Antonio on Thursday night by double-digits.
Can Doc Rivers' team step up again against another Western heavyweight?
I don't think so, especially since Golden State is sure to be in a surly mood after last night's setback in Rip City.
Go with the Warriors.
2* GOLDEN STATE
Joe Williams
Missouri at Arkansas
Play: Missouri +11.5
Mizzou heads to Fayetteville looking to add to the woes of the Razorbacks. Missouri is 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Arkansas, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series. The dog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, too. Mizzou is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five games overall and 4-1 ATS in the past five road outings. Arkansas is 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a straight up losing record.
Bruce Marshall
Brigham Young -18.5
Curious bit of scheduling in the WCC, which has BYU and USD playing back-to-back games this week. USD put a scare into BYU on Thursday, but at the risk of sounding snarky, let's see the Toreros do it again. This still does not appear a promising scenario for the offensively-challenged Toreros, who barely score 60 ppg and are under 40% from the floor (including just 27.6% beyond the arc), in stark contrast to the high-powered Cougar lineup that exploded for 105 ppg (!) in last weekend's road romps up the coast at USF and Santa Clara.
Greg Shaker
La.-Monroe / Texas-Arlington Over 147.5
When the Mavericks lost Star Forward Kevin Harvey with the season ending ACL many thought that UT Arlington would not be able to continue their Torrid Scoring and Pace. But they were wrong! UL Monroe will not back down here, they never do and the primary reason why our number is MUCH higher than what the Odds Makers have set for this one. This one should be quite fun..
King Creole
Wisconsin Green Bay -14.5
As we head into the last few weeks of Conference play in the 2015 / 2016 College Basketball season, in-season REVENGE starts to play a big part in ATS success. On Saturday, there are FIFTEEN (15) home favorites who are playing with 'The BIG R' from a loss earlier this season. After dissecting our College Hoops database, King Creole has whittled down these Revengers to just three plays. We'll be riding a situation that has already cashed 80% of the time in the last month of play (21-5-1 ATS) for these hosts who have an ax to grind. In most cases, individual TEAM trends also back up our case as well. Our database query looks at teams playing in the comfort of their home venue… who are WINNING teams on the season… and who are also playing CONFIDENTLY off a SU win in their most recent game. Add it all up together, and it makes perfect sense for 'against the spread' profitability: Good team… with full support from the home crowd… off a win… and playing with the ultimate in motivation.
21-5-1 ATS in the last 30 days (80%): All WINNING (> .500) conference home favorites playing with 'SSR1' (same-season single revenge) and off a SU win… versus any opponent also off a SU win. On Saturday, those 'Revengers' are: LOUISVILLE… WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY… and GONZAGA. We also note that when these teams are laying -4 or MORE points, the results have improved to 14-2 ATS (88%). That 'tighenter' applies to all three of our PLAY ON teams. As we type this on Friday afternoon, LOUISVILLE is -5 versus Duke… WISCONSIN-GB is -14.5 versus Youngstown State… and GONZAGA is -5 versus St Marys.
WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY is 5-0 ATS since 2003 as favorites of -6 > points playing with SSR1 (same season single revenge)...
Youngstown State is 1-7-1 ATS in the last four seasons playing 'INTO' SSR1 (same season single revenge)…
Wunderdog
Marquette vs. Depaul
Pick: Marquette -150
Marquette is 16-10 but needs some wins to improve its postseason hopes. They have losing lost of their last four games, including 65-62 against Creighton last Saturday. Henry Ellenson scored 16 points but the Golden Eagles were just 5-of-18 from three-point range. Marquette did beat Providence in overtime 96-91 on Feb. 10, holding the Friars to just 38.9 percent from the field. DePaul has failed to turn it around this season and has lost three in a row, including a 15-point loss to lowly St. John's on Wednesday. The Golden Eagles want to avenge a one-point loss to the Blue Demons in the first month of the season. Take Marquette on the moneyline.
Dr Bob
San Francisco Pk
San Francisco lost at home to Loyola 83-87 but they suffered from about 12 points of negative 3-point and free throw variance in that game and the Dons are likely to get revenge here in Malibu. Loyola has one of the worst home court advantages in the nation and the Lions are just 12-35-1 ATS in their last 48 conference home games (0-7 ATS this season). Loyola just lost straight up as a favorite to Santa Clara and bouncing back from losses at home is not something the Lions have historically been good at, as they are just 33-74-1 ATS at home after a loss, including 1-19-1 ATS more recently in home games after a home loss. San Francisco, meanwhile, is 48-15 ATS in conference games away from home, including 10-2 ATS with same season revenge for an earlier home loss to their opponent. The line is catching up to the Dons, as my ratings favor USF by 2½ points (assuming Loyola’s leading scorer Adom Jacko plays), I’ll take San Francisco in a 1-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at +1.
College of Charleston +3
NC Wilmington just ended an 11 game win streak with an 18 point loss at William & Mary and the Seahawks could lose again today to a Charleston squad that applies to a very good 143-56-8 ATS home underdog revenge situation. Charleston has been a little worse since losing top scorer Canyon Berry to a season ending injury a month ago but the line is more than fair, as my ratings favor Wilmington by 2 ½ points. I’d take Charleston in a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 or more and for 2-Stars at +4 or more.
Opinion - Mississippi -6
Auburn managed to win at Arkansas by 4 points but that win is a mirage, as the Tigers still suck despite that win. The fact that Auburn won by ONLY 4 points despite a randomly excessive 15 of 23 (65%) on their 3-point shots is an indication of just how bad the Tigers are. Auburn is only 34.8% on 3-point shots this season and that number is even lower without the good shooting of leading scorer Kareem Canty and T.J. Dunans, so making 65% from long range cannot be expected again. My ratings favor Mississippi by 7 points with those two Auburn stars no longer playing and I like backing the Rebels after a loss. Ole’ Miss is 62-42-4 ATS after a loss in 10 seasons under coach Kennedy, including 6-2-1 ATS this season and 32-16-1 ATS after a double-digit loss – so I expect a good effort from the Rebels after losing by 15 points at Texas A&M on Tuesday night. I’ll lean with the Rebels at -6 or less and I’d take Mississippi in a 1-Star Best Bet at -5 or less.
OVER (149/159) – St. Joseph’s at Davidson
This line opened at 141, was 149 when I released it and has now gone to 159 points. Obviously a mistake by the odds makers. I would have made it a bigger play at 149 but I thought something was wrong when my prediction was so much higher than the posted line. No opinion at the current line.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS -5 over Baylor
Baylor is 19-7 overall while the Longhorns are 17-9. That separates these two by a game. Both teams are 8-5 in the conference, which does not separate them at all. The Longhorns are ranked #24 in the country while the Bears are ranked #25. Similarities run rampant in regards to the results of these two but that’s where the similarities end.
You see, Baylor is Baylor. Every year they have a decent record and every year they get knocked out of the tournament in March because they just don’t have what it takes to advance. Baylor has made it to the Elite 8 perhaps twice in the last decade but most of the time they are out before the Sweet-16 round. Last season, Baylor lost in the opening round to Georgia State and we’re suggesting this year’s edition is not in any better shape. The Bears are coming off an OT win over Iowa State. However, prior to that, Baylor had lost four of its previous seven games by 10, 8, 11 and 18 points respectively. One of those losses was at home against these same Longhorns. Baylor really was made to look helpless on their home floor by the Longhorns in the first meeting and Scott Drew doesn’t seem like the kind of coach who could go home to road and make the right kind of adjustments while Shaka Smart keeps making the right ones and improving his club week in and week out.
Texas is 8-3 over its last 11 games with losses to #3 Kansas, then #3 Oklahoma and #10 West Virginia. All three of those defeats were on the road. At home, the Longhorns have thrived with victories in seven straight at home. Four of those wins were against ranked teams and the last six have all been by more than the points being offered to Baylor here. In other words, when Texas wins, they almost always win by seven or more. Texas also has a 10-point home win over Texas Tech, the same team that Baylor just lost to by 18 points. The Longhorns just keep coming on and Shaka Smart knows precisely how to get his teams peaking at the right time while Baylor has been playing kinda like a disease lately with Scott Drew standing on the sideline and scratching his head. Coaching matters and this game will likely reveal that Scott Drew cannot compete with Shaka Smart with similar talent levels.
Scott Rickenbach
Wizards vs. Heat
Play: Heat -115
Even though Miami is dealing with some injury issues they put on a fantastic performance in their win at Atlanta last night. Also, they catch the Wizards in a very tough scheduling situation as it is the 3rd game in 3 nights for Washington due to making up a game on Thursday because of that huge snow storm last month. The Wizards have impressed with wins on back to back nights but to now go on the road in a "3 in 3 situation" and make it 3 straight is really asking a lot. I'll ride the home team here that has a 4-1 (80%) SU record this season as a home favorite of 3 points or less. In other words, they should absolutely get the SU win here and that is why I see value with the money line here at -115 rather than laying the 1.5 points. Also, the Wizards are 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS in road games this season where they are a road dog of 3 points or less. This is a very unique situation that is difficult for the Wizards and I also expect Miami's role players to build off of last night's strong performance while also possibly welcoming back some key personnel to the floor tonight.
Dave Price
Butler +11
The Butler Bulldogs are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. They could really use a signature win like this over Villanova, and you can bet that they will be scratching, clawing and fighting their way to get it. That's especially the case considering they'll be out for revenge from a tough 55-60 home loss to the Wildcats in their first meeting this season. I believe they can stay within 11 on the road in the rematch to cover this inflated number. Butler is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who allow 39% or less shooting over the last 3 seasons.
Andre Ramirez
Warriors vs. Clippers
Play: Warriors -5
The Warriors are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 0 days rest and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. The Clippers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lay the money on the Clippers for today's winner.
Brandon Lee
Tennessee +2.5
The Volunteers come into this game having lost 2 straight and 5 of their last 7 overall, but all 5 of those defeats came on the road, where Tennessee is a mere 1-12 on the season. The Volunteers are a completely different team on their home floor, where they are 11-2 and simply are showing too much value here as a home dog to pass up. LSU is consistently overvalued due to all the attention that surrounds Ben Simmons and the Tigers are just 9-15 ATS because of it. LSU is just 3-7 on the road and should not be favored here. Volunteers are 34-10 ATS in their last 44 as a home dog, 28-7 ATS in their last 35 as a home dog of 6 or less and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a conference loss by 10 or more points.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma State -1
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are in a massive letdown spot tonight. They are coming off three straight wins over Top 25 opponents in Iowa State, Baylor and Oklahoma. It's only human nature for them to have a letdown after storming the court against Oklahoma on Wednesday.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have had two extra days of rest to get ready for Texas Tech after last playing on Monday at Kansas. They will be highly motivated for a victory here as they are out for revenge from a 63-61 loss at Texas Tech earlier this month on February 3rd.
It's hard not to like the Cowboys' chances in this one considering they are a sensational 17-1 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Red Raiders. The home team has won six straight meetings in this series as well.
The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 39-13-3 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Oklahoma State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Red Raiders are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 road games.