SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Siena (22-5, 14-10-1 ATS) at (18) Butler (24-4, 11-17 ATS)
Butler, piling up victories at a rapid rate, steps out of Horizon League play for a Bracket Buster matchup at Hinkle Fieldhouse against the Saints, who lead the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.
Butler hasn’t lost since a 67-57 setback at Alabama-Birmingham on Dec. 22. The Bulldogs have followed with 16 consecutive victories, though they’ve gone just 7-9 ATS in that stretch. On Wednesday, they rolled over Illinois-Chicago 73-55, but fell short as a whopping 22½-point home favorite. Butler’s last nine wins have come by double digits, and for the year, it is averaging 70.0 ppg while allowing just 60.5.
Siena has been nearly as hot, going 16-1 SU in its last 17 starts (9-6-1 ATS in lined games). The Saints bounced back from the lone loss in that span – an 87-74 setback Feb. 12 at Niagara as a 3½-point chalk – by ripping Canisius 74-57 as an eight-point road favorite on Sunday. Siena is putting up 76.3 ppg and allowing exactly 10 less on average, at 66.3.
Siena has won Bracket Busters each of the last three years (1-2 ATS), including an 81-75 victory over Northern Iowa last year, though it failed to cash as a seven-point home favorite. Butler has played Bracket Buster contests each of the past four seasons, going 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS), including a 75-63 win at Davidson last year as a 4½-points underdog.
The Bulldogs have covered in their last four Saturday starts, but are otherwise in ATS ruts of 2-5 overall and 5-13 at home. The Saints, meanwhile, are on ATS surges of 11-5 outside the MAAC, 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 on Saturday and 5-1-1 on the highway.
Siena is on “over” streaks of 7-3 in non-conference action, 5-2 on Saturday and 39-19 in roadies against teams with a winning home record. Also, the total has gone high in nine of Butler’s last 14 non-conference games and is 11-1 in the Bulldogs’ last dozen Saturday outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Florida (18-8, 11-10 ATS) at Ole Miss (17-8, 12-8-1 ATS)
Two teams clinging to NCAA Tournament hopes get together when the Gators travel to Oxford’s Tad Smith Coliseum for an SEC contest with the Rebels.
Florida dropped Auburn 78-70 Thursday night to end a two-game SU hiccup, but it fell just short as a nine-point home chalk for its third straight ATS setback. The Gators are averaging 71.7 ppg on the road this year, while allowing just a shade less at 70.3 ppg, and they’ve struggled from long distance, hitting just 30.9 percent from 3-point range.
Mississippi has dropped four of its last five games (1-3-1 ATS), including the last two in a row, losing 71-63 at Mississippi State as a four-point pup on Feb. 11, then falling 82-78 Thursday night as a three-point home chalk against No. 17 Vanderbilt. The Rebels are racking up 82.1 ppg in Oxford this season, outscoring foes by more than 14 ppg (67.8).
Florida is on a 7-1 SU run (6-2 ATS) in this rivalry, notching a 78-68 home win last year but failing to cover as a 13½-point chalk. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a non-cover, but they own positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 on the road and 9-4 coming off a SU win. The Rebs’ current 1-3-1 ATS skid has all come in SEC play, and they are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home starts, though they are on ATS rolls of 12-5 following a non-cover and 26-11 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under is 16-7 in Florida’s last 23 starts overall, 13-3 in its last 16 Saturday games and 26-10-1 in its last 37 outings after a SU win. Conversely, Mississippi is on “over” stretches of 20-9-1 as a favorite, 4-1-1 after a SU loss, 9-3-1 at home and 5-2 against winning teams. In addition, five of the last seven in this rivalry have cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(22) Baylor (20-5, 12-6 ATS) at Oklahoma State (18-7, 11-7-1 ATS)
Baylor pursues its fourth straight victory when it travels to Stillwater for a Big 12 meeting with the Cowboys.
The Bears have won five of their past six games, including the last three in row, whipping Texas Tech 88-70 Tuesday as an 11½-point home chalk to halt a three-game ATS slide. Baylor is among the nation’s best shooting teams, hitting 48.8 percent from the floor (ninth), and they also defend extremely well, allowing just 37.5 percent shooting (sixth). With those stats in mind, it’s no surprise that they average 37.6 rebounds (ninth) and give up just 27.7 boards (19th).
Oklahoma State has struggled with its consistency of late. Over the past 12 games, it has won two in a row, followed by two losses, then three wins and three losses, before winning its last two games. The Cowboys ripped Oklahoma 97-76 last Saturday as an 8½-point home chalk, then beat Iowa State 69-64 Wednesday laying 2½ points on the road. The Pokes are 17-1 at Gallagher-Iba Arena going back to last season, including 12-1 this year, outscoring visitors by nearly 16 ppg this season (79.4-63.8).
These two teams have alternated victories, both SU and ATS, over the last five meetings, with the home team winning and cashing each time. A month ago, Baylor rolled 83-70 giving six points in Waco. The Bears are 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes, and the chalk and the home team are on identical 6-0 ATS tears. In fact, the host has won the last eight in a row.
Baylor is on a bundle of positive ATS runs, including 12-5 overall, 12-5 on the highway, 7-1 as a road pup, 6-2 on Saturday and 11-5 against winning teams. Likewise, the Cowboys are on spread-covering sprees of 22-8-1 overall, 33-16-3 at home, 17-5-1 after a SU win, 15-5 after an ATS victory and 15-6 in the Big 12.
Baylor is on “over” surges of 10-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 9-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 8-1 after a SU win, 9-2 in the Big 12 and 6-2 on Saturday. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last eight meetings. But Oklahoma State is on “under” streaks of 9-4 in Stillwater, 20-8 after a SU win, 6-2 after a spread-cover and 5-0 at home versus teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
Georgia Tech (18-8, 12-7-1 ATS) at Maryland (18-7, 13-8 ATS)
The surging Terrapins seek their ninth win in the last 11 games when they play host to Georgia Tech in an ACC clash at the Comcast Center.
Maryland bounced back from a 77-56 beatdown at Duke as a 9½-point pup last Saturday by posting a pair of wins. The Terps routed Virginia 85-66 laying nine points at home Monday, then beat North Carolina State 67-58 giving 4½ points on the road Wednesday to move to 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games. Maryland has piled up an average of 84.7 ppg at Comcast this year, on a stout 50.5 percent shooting, while giving up just 61.5 ppg on 36.6 percent shooting.
The Yellow Jackets stifled reeling North Carolina 68-51 Tuesday as a six-point home favorite, ending a 1-3 SU skid (0-3-1 ATS), with all three losses coming on the road in conference play – at Duke, Miami and Wake Forest. Georgia Tech gets outscored by just under a point per game on the road (72.2-71.6), and it has lost its last four roadies (1-2-1 ATS, all in the ACC).
Maryland has owned this rivalry lately, winning the last eight in a row (6-2 ATS), including a pair of victories last year – 68-61 at home as an eight-point chalk and 57-56 getting 2½ points on the road. The Terps are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the road team and the pup are on identical 5-2 ATS runs.
The Terrapins are on ATS rolls of 10-2 overall, 7-0 as a chalk, 5-0 at home, 9-2 against winning teams and 18-6 in ACC action. The Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 coming off a spread-cover, 5-2 ATS in their last seven on Saturday and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 following a SU win, but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall (all in conference play).
The over for Maryland is on upswings of 5-1 at home, 9-3 with the Terrapins favored, 10-2-1 with the Terps a home chalk and 25-10 on Saturday. On the flip side, Georgia Tech is on “under” streaks of 7-2 overall, 7-2 in the ACC, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall and 4-1-1 in the last six starts at Maryland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND
(15) Texas (20-6, 9-13 ATS) at Texas Tech (16-9, 11-8 ATS)
The reeling Longhorns make the trek to Lubbock to battle Texas Tech in a Big 12 matchup at United Spirit Arena.
Texas was ranked No. 1 in the nation on Jan. 18, with a 17-0 SU record, but has since gone 3-6 SU and an even worse 2-7 ATS, including an 82-77 setback at Missouri on Wednesday as a 3½-point pup. For the season, the Longhorns average 83.5 ppg and allow 68.1, but on the highway, the numbers tighten up considerably, with Rick Barnes’ troops scoring 77.4 ppg and giving up 76.0.
The Red Raiders have been inconsistent at best over the past six weeks, going 4-7 SU (5-6 ATS), opening that stretch with a three-game skid that was followed by two wins, two losses, two more wins and two more losses. They followed a 72-61 road upset of Oklahoma with last Saturday’s 67-65 loss to Texas A&M laying one point and Tuesday’s 88-70 setback at Baylor getting 11½ points. Texas Tech averages 80.8 ppg at home and gives up an average of 70.2.
Texas has won nine of the last 10 in this rivalry (6-4 ATS), including the last three in a row, though Texas Tech has covered in the last two meetings. On Jan. 27 in Austin, the ‘Horns won 95-83, but fell short as a hefty 16½-point favorite. Still, Texas is on a 9-1 ATS tear on its last 10 trips to Lubbock and is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 matchups overall, and the road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
The Longhorns are on bevy of pointspread purges, including 2-11 overall, 3-12-1 in roadies, 2-8 laying points, 1-5 as a road chalk, 6-20-1 in the Big 12, 1-5 on Saturday and 2-10 against winning teams. The Red Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home starts and 5-1 ATS in their last six as a pup of under six points, but they are on a 2-5 ATS skid as a home pup of that same price.
In this rivalry, the under is 6-1-1 in the last eight Lubbock clashes. However, Texas is on “over” tears of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 7-2 on the highway, 5-1 laying points, 5-1 as a road favorite and 7-2 against winning teams. Likewise, Tech sports “over” streaks of 37-16-2 overall, 26-10-2 as a pup, 20-8-2 after a SU loss and 15-6 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Illinois (17-9, 10-15 ATS) at (4) Purdue (22-3, 12-12-1 ATS)
The surging Boilermakers go after their ninth consecutive victory and a season series sweep of Illinois when these Big Ten rivals clash at Mackey Arena.
The Illini have had six days to digest Sunday’s ugly 72-53 home loss to Ohio State as a two-point home underdog, snapping a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS). Part of that winning streak included three straight Big Ten road victories (SU and ATS) at Penn State (77-67), Iowa (57-49) and Wisconsin (63-56). Illinois is 4-2 SU and ATS in conference roadies, allowing just 63 ppg in those contests.
Purdue also is coming off a game against Ohio State, but unlike Illinois, it dominated the ninth-ranked Buckeyes most of the way Wednesday then held on down the stretch for a 60-57 upset victory as a 3½-point road underdog. The Boilermakers have won eight in a row, all in conference, with half of the victories being double-digit blowouts. Also, they’ve followed up a 4-9 ATS downturn by cashing in their last three games in a row.
Purdue has won 19 of its last 21 at home, including 12 of 14 conference home games. This year, the Boilers are 12-1 at Mackey Arena (7-6 ATS), outscoring visitors by 18.1 ppg (75.3-57.2) and outshooting them 46.7 percent to 38.7 percent.
The Boilermakers’ current winning streak began with an 84-78 win at Illinois as a five-point road chalk on Jan. 19. Purdue also topped the Illini 66-56 as a three-point favorite in last year’s Big Ten tournament, ending a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Illinois (including the Illini’s 71-67 overtime win at Purdue last year as an eight-point road underdog). The Boilermakers are still 9-4-1 ATS in the last 13 series clashes and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven in West Lafayette. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last eight head-to-head battles.
The Illini have covered in four of their last five road games, but they’re in ATS funks of 3-7 versus winning teams, 2-7 on Saturday and 0-4 when coming off a double-digit home loss. Purdue’s 4-1 ATS run overall is offset by a 1-4 ATS mark in its last five Saturday outings and a 5-12-1 ATS rut following a spread-cover.
Illinois is riding “over” streaks of 17-7 overall, 8-2 on Saturday, 6-1 versus winning teams, 8-1 after a SU defeat and 9-4 after a non-cover. Conversely, for Purdue, the under is on surges of 5-2 overall (all in conference) and 4-0 at home. Finally, six of the last seven meetings between these squads – including last month’s battle at Illinois – have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE
(2) Kentucky (25-1, 13-11 ATS) at (17) Vanderbilt (20-5, 13-10 ATS)
The top two teams in the SEC hook up for the second time in three weeks, with Kentucky gunning for a season sweep of the Commodores, who return to Memorial Gym in Nashville looking for a fourth straight win.
The Wildcats needed overtime to dispose of Mississippi State on Tuesday, but they got the job done, winning 81-75 and cashing as a 2½-point road favorite. Kentucky, which trailed Mississippi State by seven points with less than three minutes to play in regulation, has now won six in a row (4-2 ATS) since suffering its first and only loss of the year (68-62 at South Carolina on Jan. 26). John Calipari’s squad is 10-1 (6-5 ATS) in SEC action and 8-1 (6-3 ATS) in road/neutral-site games this year. The ‘Cats outscore opponents by exactly 10 ppg away from Rupp Arena (79.2-69.2) and they shoot 47 percent, while holding the opposition to 38.4 percent.
Vanderbilt outlasted Ole Miss 82-78 as a three-point road underdog on Thursday, picking up its third straight win (2-1 ATS) and its 14th victory in the last 16 games. During the 14-2 run, the Commodores are 9-2 SU and 6-5 ATS in SEC action. Also, they’ve won 18 straight home games overall (10 in a row versus SEC opponents). This year, they’re 13-0 at Memorial Gym (6-5 ATS in lined action), outscoring visitors by 18 ppg (84.2-66.2) while making 51.6 percent of its shots versus 38.4 percent for the opponent.
The Wildcats dominated Vandy 85-72 as an 8½-point home favorite on Jan. 30, cashing for the 11th time in the last 16 meetings. Kentucky shot 52.2 percent from three-point land (12-for-23), and DeMarcus Cousins (21 points, 10 rebounds) recorded a double-double in leading five players in double-figure scoring.
The home team has won six in a row in this series, cashing in each of the last five. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in those five games.
Kentucky has now covered in consecutive games, ending an 11-game stretch in which it alternated ATS wins and losses. Still, the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover, but they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the highway and they’ve covered in four straight Saturday contests. On the flip side, the Commodores are 0-4 ATS in their last four on Saturday, but 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against winning teams.
The Wildcats have topped the total in 12 of their last 17 games overall, and Vandy is on “over” runs of 8-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 19-7 in SEC action and 6-1 after a SU win. Also, four of the last five series clashes between these two in Nashville have eclipsed the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Wichita State (22-6, 10-10-1 ATS) at Utah State (21-6, 14-9 ATS)
This year’s slate of Bracket Buster games ends with arguably the most intriguing matchup of all, as Wichita State heads to the Smith Spectrum in Logan, Utah, for a clash with the red-hot Aggies.
The Shockers are coming off a pair of narrow Missouri Valley Conference home wins this week over Missouri State (66-64 on Sunday) and Evansville (76-70 in overtime on Wednesday), but they’re just 6-4 SU in their last 10 after a 16-2 start to the season. Also, they failed to cover as a heavy favorite against both Missouri State and Evansville and are now 0-4 ATS in their last four and 2-6 ATS in their last eight. Wichita State is 11-5 in the Missouri Valley, good for second place behind Northern Iowa.
Utah State lost its first two WAC games of the season, both on the road, but has since ripped off 11 consecutive wins (9-2 ATS). Most recently, the Aggies dropped Louisiana Tech 67-61 on Wednesday, but fell short as a 12-point home chalk. Utah State, which has won 15 of its last 17 overall, sits atop the Western Athletic Conference standings at 11-2.
Wichita State has split 12 road/neutral-site games this year (5-5-1 ATS in lined roadies), and it averages just 64.1 ppg on the highway while giving up 62.6. On the other hand, Utah State is 14-1 SU and 8-4 ATS at home this year, and it has won 48 of its last 49 games in Logan, the lone blemish being a 68-63 loss to St. Mary’s as a six-point chalk on Dec. 5. The Aggies are putting up 79.5 ppg at home this season (50.7 percent shooting overall, 45.7 percent from three-point range) while giving up 60.1 ppg (39.9 percent shooting overall, 33.7 percent from three-point range).
This is the first meeting between these teams, but both are frequent “Bracket Buster” participants. Wichita State topped Cleveland State 70-59 as a one-point home underdog last year, ending a four-game SU and ATS “Bracket Buster” losing skid. Utah State lost at St. Mary’s 75-64 as a four-point underdog in last year’s “Bracket Buster” contest, ending a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) in this made-for-TV event.
Wichita State has cashed in 13 of its last 19 non-conference games, but is otherwise in the midst of pointspread dips of 0-4 overall, 1-4-1 on Saturday and 1-4-1 after a SU win. However, the Missouri Valley Conference is 14-5 ATS the last two years in “Bracket Buster” games.
The Aggies have failed to cover in four of their last five non-league games, but otherwise they’re on ATS rolls of 9-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-0 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 versus Missouri Valley clubs and 15-5-1 after a non-cover.
The over is on runs of 6-1 for the Shockers in non-conference play, 14-4 for the Shockers on Saturday, 17-8 for the Shockers after a non-cover and 9-0 for Utah State after a non-cover. Conversely, the under is 4-1 in Wichita’s last five road games, 4-1 in the Aggies’ last five at home and 6-1 in the Aggies’ last seven on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH STATE
NBA
Miami (29-27, 28-28 ATS) at Dallas (33-21, 22-32 ATS)
The Mavericks try to continue their dominance of the Heat when they return to American Airlines Center for a rematch of the 2006 NBA Finals.
Miami ran its winning streak to five in a row (SU and ATS) with Friday’s 100-87 double-overtime win at Memphis, cashing as a 6½-point road underdog. The Heat, who outscored the Grizzlies 15-2 in the second OT, played without star guard Dwyane Wade, who injured his calf in Wednesday’s win at New Jersey, and Wade likely will miss this contest as well. The Heat’s 5-0 roll (4-0 on the road) comes on the heels of losing five in a row overall (0-4 on the road) and seven of eight (2-6 ATS). They continue to struggle offensively, as last night’s 100-point effort was just the second time in the last seven games – and the third in the last 11 – that Miami hit the century mark.
Dallas opens a three-game homestand tonight after playing four of its last five games on the road, including last night’s 95-85 upset win at Orlando as a 6½-point road underdog. The Mavs are still just 4-6 SU in their last nine games and 5-14 ATS in their last 19. Their only home game in the last two weeks came on Wednesday, when they beat Phoenix 107-97 and covered as a four-point home favorite. That ended an 0-10 ATS slide at home and an 0-17 ATS slump as a home favorite.
The Mavs lost to the Heat in six games in the 2006 Finals, including dropping the last four in a row after taking Games 1 and 2. Since then, however, Dallas won seven straight meetings (3-3-1 ATS), including a 106-93 rout in Miami as a 1½-point road favorite on Dec. 11. Including the NBA Finals series, the Mavs are 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 head-to-head clashes, but Miami has cashed in four straight in Dallas. In fact, the road team is 9-1-1 ATS and the underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
The Heat have covered in five of their last six against the Western Conference, but they’re otherwise in ATS nosedives of 3-6 against the Southwest Division, 1-5 on Saturday and 2-7 when playing on back-to-back nights. It’s been all negative at the betting window for Dallas, too, as it carries ATS trends of 8-19 overall (5-14 last 19), 6-21 at home (2-17 last 19), 1-6 on Saturday, 3-5 versus the Eastern Conference and 2-6 when facing teams from the Southeast Division.
Miami is on “under” runs of 22-8-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0 on Saturday, 6-0-1 when playing on no rest, 9-3 versus the Western Conference and 15-6 against the Southwest Division. Dallas has stayed low in 11 of 15 against the Southeast Division, but the Mavs have topped the total in seven of their last 10 at home, 13 of 19 against Eastern Conference foes and four of five on Saturday.
Finally, the under has hit in six of the last seven Mavs-Heat meetings in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Matt Fargo
Marist at Cal-Irvine
Play: Cal-Irvine
The season has been done for Marist for quite some time now and what a season it has been. The Red Foxes are 1-25 on the season and arguably one of the worst teams in college basketball. If there is anything good that has come from this season it is that a lot of young players have gotten valuable minutes in looking toward next season. Now Marist is being asked to head to the west coast for this Bracket Buster game on Saturday. This season, the furthest west the Red Foxes have travelled was to Buffalo, New York so this is something brand new to the team and it will be more into getting out of the snow and cold of Dutchess County and into the warmer environment of California. The lone win came this season at home against Manhattan by just six points and while it has been involved in some close games on the road, those were early in the season and the margins have been anything close of late. It has been a roller coaster of a season for the Anteaters who have dropped 10 of 12 road games heading into Wednesday?s conference showdown at Riverside but they are a very decent 9-5 at home including wins in two of their last three games at Bren Events Center. After dropping a non-conference game at Cal-Bakersfield two weeks ago, Cal-Irvine came back home and defeated the Roadrunners to split the home-and-home series. That may not seem overly important but it extended the Anteaters record to 4-1 this season in home games coming off a road game. That will be case again here as the Anteaters are back home following that Wednesday road game and there will be no lookahead here despite this being a non-conference tilt as Cal-Irvine does not play again until the following Saturday. The Anteaters have won their Bracket Buster games the last two years which tells us that these games are just as important as these late-season conference matchups. Cal-Irvine is certainly not used to laying a big number but we should not be worried as the Red Foxes are more concerned about taking in the sights than playing in a meaningless hoops game. 3* Cal-Irvine Anteaters
Marc Lawrence
Akron at Virginia Commonwealth
Prediction: Akron
Its time to separate the men from the boys on this BracketBuster Saturday. Its also time the ball started to bounce the Zips way in this non-conference matchup. The men from the Rubber City have fallen to the Rams in each of the two previous seasons. The 2007-2008 meeting was in this same BracketBuster situation and the 5-point loss as home favorites cost Akron a ticket to the Big Dance. Despite the 73-69 loss last season in Richmond, the Zips brought home the cash as 8.5 points dogs. The Zips will also be taking points this season and our Playbook database reminds us that the visitors are a solid 14-7 ATS as non-conference dogs under 6th-year HC Keith Dambrot, including 9-2 ATS in their last 11. Well look for that number to improve this afternoon in Virginias capital city as the Rams are a not-so-tough 14-22-3 ATS as non-conference favorites since 2000. VCU also enters off a same-season revenger with Drexel where they are a sheepish 0-4 ATS after dueling with the Dragons. With a same-season revenger against James Madison (lost SU as double-digit favorite) on deck, this makes for a nice BracketBuster sandwich. Simply put, the Zips are just too dangerous to ignore in this underdog revenge role. Let the bustin begin!
Rob Vinciletti
Portland U vs. Loyola Marymount
Play: Portland U -4.5
Portland is an amazing 12-1 and 11-1 ats this year when favored. Tonight they catch Loyola Marymount in a huge let down spot off their big win vs Gonzaga. The Pilots are 8-2 ats in conference action this year and have won 7 of 8 times as a road favorite in this range the past few years. The last time these 2 teams met they won by 40 points. Loyola Marymount has lost 17 of 19 times when they are facing revenge for a loss of 20 or more and have lost 4 of the last 5 in the series. They may have tripped up Gonzaga the other night but look for things to get back to normal tonight. Portland gets it done tonight.
Sam Martin
Charlotte Bobcats at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
After their big win against the Cavs, the Bobcats find themselves as a road underdog in Milwaukee tonight. Both teams played last night, so the rest factor goes right out the window. And although the knee jerk reaction is to believe that Charlotte is in a letdown spot, they have already responded with wins by 11 and 16 points after beating Cleveland this season. We?ll back them again here tonight and fully expect an outright win. 5* Play on Charlotte.
Larry Ness
Morgan State @ Murray State
PICK: Murray State -12.5
Morgan State was rolling along unbeaten in MEAC play until losing 71-68 at South Carolina St on Feb 15. The Bears will take a 20-8 overall mark (11-1 in the MEAC) into Saturday's game at Murray State. The Racers are 25-3 (16-0 in the OVC), one of just four remaining conference unbeatens and along with Butler, own the nation's longest active winning streak at 16 in a row. However, both schools know very well that while this game is for conference pride, neither team is a serious at-large contender. Morgan State earned its first-ever NCAA tournament bid last year by beating Norfolk St 83-69 in the MEAC title game. The win also marked the return to the national stage for head coach Todd Bozeman, the center of an NCAA scandal before being fired at California-Berkeley in 1996. He was out of coaching for eight years before resurrecting his career at Morgan State and Bozeman's team is now on the verge of a second straight NCAA appearance. Murray State is no stranger to NCAA appearances, having made 13 in its history but none under current head coach Bill Kennedy. Mick Cronin (now head coach at Cincinnati) took the Racers to the "Big Dance" in 2004 and 2006 but Kennedy's teams have fallen short each of the last three seasons. Kennedy and the Racers are due this year. Kennedy's first collegiate head coaching job came at Centenary and he took over at Southeastern Louisiana hired in 1999. In his sixth and final season at Hammond, La (2005) his team went 24-9, winning both the conference regular season and tournament titles while getting the Lions to the NCAA tournament for the first time in school history, where it lost to Oklahoma State 63-50. That team won a school-record 24 games that year and the program hasn't won more than 17 games in any season since (team is 14-10 this year). Coaches matter in college hoops and with 25 wins already (plus that 16-game winning streak), this could be a special season for Kennedy and the Racers. The school's lone NCAA win in 13 appearances came in 1988 when it beat No. 3-seeded North Carolina St before losing 61-58 to Kansas, which led by Danny Manning, would go on to capture the national title. That's something to shoot for. The Bears are led by senior guard Holmes (22.0-4.1) plus 6-8 sophomore Thompson (12.5-11.9) and 6-8 freshman Jackson (10.4-4.2). The Racers are one of the nation's best-balanced squads, as eight players have played in all 28 games, averaging between 15.4 and 26.1 MPG. Six of them average between 9.8 and 10.5 PPG (how about that for balanced scoring?). Murray St averages 78.8 PPG and shoots 51.2 percent (2nd in the nation) from the floor, while allowing a modest 60.5 PPG and holding opponents to 38.6 percent (15th) from the floor. Murray St and Butler have each won 16 straight games entering Saturday (longest active winning streak in the nation) plus the Racers take an 18-game home winning streak (14-0 TY) into this game. I'm laying the points as the Racers "make a statement!"
Joseph D'Amico
Wichita State vs. Utah State
Play: Utah State -6½
Utah State has won 11 in a row SU and is 9-2 ATS in that span. The Aggie's have easily disposed of some very competitive teams TY. They are an excellent home team, covering 5 of their L6 when playing host. Surprisingly, Utah State has the 9th ranked offense in FG% in the nation, which includes 76.9% FT's and 42.8% beyond the arc. When at home, the Aggie's are outscoring opponents by an average of 19.4 PPG. Starters Wesley, Quayle, and Bendall are all averaging over 10 PPG. They face a Wichita State squad that has failed to cover 4 straight and 6 of their L8. Outside of possibly having a deeper bench, the Shocker's are far inferior to the Aggie's in every category. They are 1-3-1 ATS their L5 road games, 1-4-1 ATS their L6 following a SU win, and 0-4 ATS their L4 overall. The Aggie's are 5-1 ATS their L6 at home, 8-2 ATS their L10 as a favorite, and 9-2 ATS their L11 overall. Utah State continues to dominate foes. take the Aggie's.
JIM FEIST
SACRAMENTO KINGS / LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
TAKE: OVER
Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA meet here. Just as bad, both teams know they're not going anywhere except to the NBA draft lottery, which means teams often focus on offense more than defense after the All Star break. Sacramento is 27th in the NBA allowing 106 ppg, while the Clippers are 17th in points allowed. The Kings are on a 6-2 run over the total and this is their 5th road game over the last 6 games. The Clippers are on a 7-2 run over the total and have clearly packed it in defensively, allowing 109, 132, 109 and 110 points the last four games -- all losses. Play the Kings/Clippers Over the total.
EZWINNERS
Oklahoma State Cowboys -2
Oklahoma State needs to win this game at home, because they are starting a brutal four game stretch in the Big 12. After hosting #22 Baylor in this game, they play at #15 Texas, host #1 Kansas and travel to College Station to face #24 Texas A&M. The Cowboys resume is the very definition of a bubble team, with an RPI of 39 and just three road wins, they need another win over a ranked team and this game will be their best chance in this four game stretch. This has been a home dominated series with the home team winning six straight meetings and going 6-0 against the spread in those games and I expect that trend to continue here. Lay the points with the Cowboys.
James Patrick Sports
Alabama vs. Georgia
Georgia has been a real tough team to beat at home in the Stegeman Colisum with a (8-1) ATS mark the past (9) contests behind their Big Man, 6'9" Tompkins who's been a huge presence in the paint and the Dogs have a terrific guard trio in Leslie, McPhee and Ware and they will pressure the heck out of an Alabama offense that is averaging just (63 ppg.). Georgia is a solid bet to Turn the Tide in this SEC match-up.
Great Lakes Sports
St Johns at South Florida
Pick: South Florida
College Basketball Selection: St Johns at South Florida 12:00PM EST Play on: (530) South Florida Bulls The South Florida Bulls are a very solid 8-1 ATS in their last nine games including a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing in their last four home games. The South Florida Bulls is also a stunning 8-1 ATS vs the Big East Conference, and they are 5-1 ATS when playing in their last six Saturday games. We look for the South Florida Bulls to roll over the St Johns Red Storm and grab the home ATS Win & Cover tonight.
O.C. Dooley
Indiana +16 at Minnesota
It has been a very rough season at Minnesota marred by both injuries and suspensions. But on Thursday evening in front of an ESPN national audience the Gophers had a chance to basically salvage the campaign as they drilled visiting Wisconsin resounding 68-52 count. On the other hand an ESPN national audience back on Tuesday saw Indiana get pummeled by Michigan State 72-58 on their own home floor. Since these two teams are coming off radcically different ESPN televised results this week, the oddsmakers have seriously "inflated" the price tag and I am taking advantage. Indiana seemingly has hit an all-time low as they are riding a current 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS skid which includes four consecutive "double digit" setbacks. One of the reasons why the Hoosiers have had such a tough time is due to their overall youth as head coach Tom Crean continues to overhaul this once-proud program. Crean arrived in 2008 finding an Indiana program in complete chaos on the heels of former mentor Kelvin Sampson's recruiting scandal. Crean also saw the Hooisers dealing with drug problems and an overall disdain for academic achievement. While Crean continues his overhaul of the program, Minnesota veteran head coach Tubby Smith has had to deal with a myriad of off-the-court issues which has led to suspensions. Prior to Thursday night's rout of Wisconsin, the Golden Gophers had actually FAILED to cover the spread in an amazing EIGHT consecutive outings. Turning to this Big-10 series early last month we saw a very close thriller that ultimately was decided in OVERTIME. Despite of all their problems Indiana is on a 5-1 ATS roll in the past six head-on clashes with Minnesota. My database research indicates that "double digit" road underdogs like Indiana off a "double digit" home loss have actually COVERED the spread a positive 63% of the time in the past five years (114-68) when taking the court on a SATURDAY. That means the latest humiliation suffered by Indiana actually works in their favor this evening
Triple Threat Sports
Utah State (-) over Wichita State
Utah State failed to cover on national TV against Lousiana Tech on Wednesday night, and that likely provides value here. We like it when a team plays below expectations for all but five minutes and stills pulls out a SU win, and teams like that are usually Play On teams the next game. That is the situation for the Aggies here, and seeing as how the Shockers are just 1-3 SU in Bracket Buster games and will be playing an 11pm "body clock" game, we will lay the points here.
Brian Graves
St. John's vs. South Florida
Pick: USF -4.5
With Gilchrist back in the lineup Jones doesn't have to be a one man team anymore for the Bulls and this team has won 4 straight home conference games with all of them being very solid wins. St. John's is a weaker version of the Bulls and on the road I don't see them putting up too much of a fight. Take USF to win this game 69-56!