Jeff Benton
How about that 6♦ free-play winner on Charlotte outright by 17 points over the Cavaliers on Friday? I’m now on runs of 24-11, 14-5 and 11-4 and 5-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday’s freebie in college basketball, I’ll take Oklahoma State as a small home favorite against Baylor.
Hard to ignore the home team’s dominance in this rivalry recently, as the host has taken each of the last eight meetings, going 6-0 ATS in the last six. During the 8-0 SU run, Oklahoma State has won four in a row in Stillwater, the last two by 10 points each (84-74 last year as a 4½-point chalk; 93-83 two years ago as a 1½-point favorite). It’s also hard to ignore Oklahoma State’s 12-1 mark in its gym this season – including last Saturday’s 97-76 pounding of Oklahoma as an 8½-point favorite (you may recall my 40 Dime winner on the Cowboys in that one!).
Showing no signs of a letdown after such a big victory over an archrival, OSU on Wednesday went to Iowa State and took out the Cyclones 69-64 as a 2½-point road favorite. Then again, the Cowboys covering pointspreads is not exactly news. Check out these pointspread streaks for OSU: 22-8-1 overall, 15-6 in Big 12 games, 33-16-3 in Stillwater, 19-8-1 against winning teams, 17-5-1 following a SU victory and 15-5 after a spread-cover. Furthermore, of the last nine Big 12 rivals that have come to Gallagher-Iba Arena, only one has walked away with the cash. That was Texas, which won 72-60 on Feb. 1 in Stillwater. That means in their other eight most recent Big 12 home games, the Cowboys are 8-0 SU and ATS!
Finally, I think Baylor is a quality team that could do some damage in the NCAA Tournament. And the Bears have won their last three in a row. But two of those were two-point victories, one at home (Missouri), one on the road (Nebraska).
5♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
Karl Garrett
Wake Forest (-3) at NC STATE
Right now the Wolfpack are most definitely a go-against, and even a conference home game for them is no shoe-in as evidenced by their collapse against Maryland the other night.
NC State has lost 5 in a row, and 7 of their last 8 games, and they are also a money-burning 1-6 against the spread in that span. For the season, the Wolfpack is just 8-7 straight up at home, and 3-8-1 against the spread in Raleigh.
Wake Forest is off a close loss at Virginia Tech in a game they did cover as the road dog, and I believe they get back on track against the fading 'Pack.
The Demon Deacons have covered 7 of their 11 lined road games this year, and they have also won 3 of the last 4 series meetings against NC State.
No issue with laying a point or two in this one.
Take the road team here.
4♦ WAKE FOREST
Louisville at DE PAUL (+11)
Case of the Cardinals laying an inflated road price on Saturday, as Louisville is gaining a little momentum with wins in their last pair, and 4 of their last 5.
Problem is, the Cards have gone just 3-8 against the spread their last 11 games, and while they should definitely notch the straight up win, I doubt highly they will notch the cover.
DePaul has been racking up the covers save for their last game against Rutgers in which they were routed. The Blue Demons are on a 7-1 spread run their last 8 games, and I just get the feeling that the linemakers have over-inflated the price on this one.
Louisville gets another much-needed win, but the linemakers keep the Blue Demons in this ball game for the 8th cover in their last 9 games.
Take the home dog.
2♦ DE PAUL
Chuck O'Brien
USC (+1) at Washington State
I’ve hit back-to-back complimentary winners the last two days, including Friday’s play on the Bucks. Let’s make it 3-for-3 by taking USC in a pick-em spot at Washington State in Saturday’s college basketball action.
Two teams going in completely opposite directions here. USC, which scored an impressive 67-64 win at Washington on Thursday, has ripped off four straight victories. Washington State has lost three in a row and six of its last seven – with five of those being double-digit defeats, including Thursday’s horrendous 71-51 home loss to UCLA as a five-point favorite.
That effort to the Bruins, coupled with last Saturday’s 86-70 loss at Cal in a game the Cougars led by 11 points at halftime, tells me Wazu has thrown in the towel on the season. On the flip side, the Trojans have regained some traction after a 2-5 slump and they’re eager to finish on a high note (since they won’t be allowed to participate in the Pac-10 Tournament because of school-imposed sanctions for past violations).
This is a big payback game for USC, too. The Trojans blew a 10-point lead to Washington State exactly a month ago and lost 67-60 at home. Prior to that, USC had won consecutive meetings, including last year’s 46-44 victory as a 2½-point road underdog. No surprise there, seeing that the road team and underdog are both 6-2 ATS in the last eight USC-Washington State meetings. Also, the Trojans have cashed in five of seven road games and 38 of 56 on Saturday; the Cougs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 overall and they’ve cashed just once in their last seven home games (and once in their last six on Saturday).
5♦ USC
Bobby Maxwell
Texas at TEXAS TECH (+7)
I'm 53-23-1 with my last 77 FREE plays and delivering on the college hardwood today with a winner on Texas Tech as the Red Raiders host Texas in a Big 12 matchup.
Neither one of these teams has been dominating lately, but with this many points being offered, I’ll gladly take a good Texas Tech team at home over a struggling Longhorns’ squad. Plus you know the fans will be wild in Lubbock tonight and ready to pull off the upset win over their hated in-state rivals.
Texas has shown it isn’t very good on the road lately, losing four of the last five on the highway, including Wednesday’s 82-77 loss at Missouri as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Longhorns have lost six of their last nine overall and covered just two of their last 10 overall. This team has been a disaster at the window, including 3-12-1 ATS on the road and 2-11 overall.
Texas Tech is 7-3 ATS at home this season but they’ve lost their last two overall, including an ugly game at Baylor on Tuesday, losing 88-70 as an 11 ½-point underdog. This team has to shoot well from the floor because they really struggle on the glass. A balanced attack is what they have to get if they want any shot at the upset win today.
Back on Jan. 27, the Red Raiders went to Texas and lost 95-83 but got inside the number as 16 ½-point pups. They have covered three of the last four against the Longhorns and seven of their last nine at home. Texas is on ATS slides of 2-8 as a favorite, 1-5 as a road favorite and 6-20-1 in Big 12 action.
Grab the points with the Red Raiders. Play Texas Tech.
3♦ TEXAS TECH
Utah (+11') at SAN DIEGO ST.
Just a lot of points to pass up here with a Utah team that is improving and looking much better lately. I know San Diego State has been playing very well lately, but this is too many points to look past. Grab them and play the Utes in this one.
Utah has won two of thee, including a 64-55 win at TCU as a one-point favorite and then Wednesday they defeated UNLV 66-61 in Salt Lake City as four-point home underdogs. They outrebounded the Rebels and held them to 23 of 53 shooting.
San Diego State has cashed in six-straight games and won 12 of 13 at home this season, but Utah’s style is going to frustrate the Aztecs. Utah has won two of the last three and three of the last five in this series, but fell 70-68 at home back on Jan. 19, coming up just short as a one-point favorite.
The Utes are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six on Saturday and 3-0-1 in their last four as pups. I’m going to grab the points and count on their deliberate style to get inside the number tonight. Play Utah.
3♦ UTAH
Brett Atkins
I've hit five of my last six free plays and will make it another winner tonight as I deliver a comp winner on UCLA, grabbing the points with the Bruins at Washington in a Pac-10 matchup.
UCLA coach Ben Howland should be commended for even getting this team close to .500 with the way they looked to start the season.
Thursday, UCLA went to Washington State and scored a 71-51 victory as five-point underdogs. The Bruins shot 29-of-44 from the field and held the Cougars to 18-of-50 shooting. They got good, balanced scoring with four of their five starters in double-digits, which is exactly what these guys need because they have no one superstar that can get 20 every night.
Washington has lost two of three, including Thursday’s 67-64 loss to USC, falling as a 9 ½-point hoem chalk. These guys have not gotten balanced scoring and have been relying on Quincy Pondexter too much lately.
UCLA is on ATS runs of 24-9-1 as a road ‘dog and 10-1 as a road ‘dog of 7 to 12 ½-points. Meanwhile, the Huskies are just 8-18 ATS overall and 2-6 ATS at home against teams with losing road marks.
The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two, including in Southern California on Jan. 21 when UCLA scored a 62-61 upset as a 3 ½-point home underdog. Too many points to pass up tonight. Grab the points and play the Bruins.
4♦ UCLA
Jay McNeil
Now on a 16-7 run with comp plays following Friday's 4♦ winner on the Bulls. For Saturday, looking at the BracketBuster Challenge and going to play what should be a burial with Wright State over Ohio.
Barely a road trip, the Raiders' mere 135-mile jaunt isn't going to be that big of a challenge against a team that has been inconsistent the entire season and carries a two-game losing streak into the contest.
And given how well the Raiders have played - they're currently sitting in second place in the Horizon League and on the verge of a 20-win season - not to mention the proximity between the two schools, Wright State could very well have just as many fans in the Convocation Center than the Bobcats.
Coach Brad Brownell knows the importance of nabbing a win in this event, especially with the entire Horizon League contingent participating. Only first-place Butler will play a televised game, so that could add motivation to the Raiders, who will be looking for respect from the NCAA Selection Committee.
And they'll get it if they employ that stingy defense that ranks 18th in the nation in points allowed (60.2), and can penetrate a team whose scoring defense is ranked 211th in the country.
The 18-9 Raiders are on ATS runs of 11-3 in non-conference play and 7-2 on Saturdays, while Ohio is mired in spread slides of 4-11 as an underdog, 5-11 on Saturdays and 0-6 when catching points in this range.
All Wright State in a blowout.
4♦ WRIGHT STATE RAIDERS
Joel Tyson
Wall, meet Virginia.
Virginia, meet the Wall!
The Cavaliers enter Saturday's action riding a 4-game losing streak, and they have also lost 6 of their last 8 overall. Against the spread, the Wahoos aren't much better, failing 6 of their last 9 games.
Clemson appears to have righted their ship, as the Tigers have won 3 of their last 4 following their 3-game losing clip.
The Tigers are 12-2 straight up at home, and 8-3 against the spread against the spread at home this year.
Until I see some signs the Cavs are out of their slide, I will go against them.
Take Clemson minus the points.
4♦ CLEMSON
Red Dog Sports
Georgia Tech/Maryland Over 67 (1st Half)
Every home game for Maryland in ACC action has passed this mark, as they have scored 86, 78, 79, 74 and 68. Even the William and Mary game had 69 at the half. As for GT, they have scored 68 or more in their 6 ACC road games. The scores tallied 74, 68, 78, 68, 70 and 77 in those meetings. Also, 3 of the last 4 GT/Md games have gone over in the first half.
Tom Freese
UTEP at Tulsa
Utep is 19-5 overall and 10-1 in Conference Play Guard Randy Culpepper scores 17.6 points a game. Derrick Caracter scores 14.2 points and 9 rebounds a game. Forward Jeremy Williams scores 11 points a game. Guard Christian Polk scores 10.9 a game while shooting 41% from behind the arc. Arnett Moultrie scores 10.5 points and 6.8 rebounds a game. The Miners are 2-5-1 ATS their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their last game and they are 1-8 ATS their last 9 games vs. Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane is 19-7 overall and 8-4 in Conference Play. Tulsa plays with revenge from a 73-59 loss at UTEP on January 30. Guard Ben Uzoh scores 15.8 points a game. Center James Jordan 15.1 points and 8.5 rebounds a game. Guard Justin Hurtt scores 13.7 points a game while shooting 40% from behind the arc. Three other players score between 7.2 and 5.7 points a games. Tulsa scores 73 points a game. The Golden Hurricane is 18-7 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding their opponents by 6 or more and they are and they are 5-1 ATS their last 6 games with the Miners. PLAY ON TULSA -
SPORTS WAGERS
MISSISSIPPI -5 over Florida
This is a huge, huge game that has enormous tournament implications. Florida and Ole Miss are both right on the bubble and today’s game could very well be the game that either seals or defeats either of these two squads bids. The Gators bounced back against Auburn on Thursday to stop a two-game losing streak that potentially put them in serious danger of sliding off the bubble. More worrisome for the Gators, however, is that they couldn’t stay close to Xavier at home and blew a 10-point halftime lead to South Carolina with their tournament lives on the line. That’s very troubling and tells me Florida is playing tight at the worst possible time. Mississippi absolutely needs to win this game to keep its ever so slight tournament hopes alive. They have lost four of its last five games, including losses to SEC powers Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Today’s showdown is the proverbial “Last Stand” and they have a very good shot to survive. Florida can’t shoot the three-ball with any success (30.9%) and that’s huge because the Rebels defense only allows opponents to shoot 33.2% on three’s. Florida will have to score inside the arc against a Mississippi defense that allows 45% shooting and that means the Gators will labor for points. With massive pressure on both these teams to come out with a win I’ll back the home team that is sure to play inspired basketball. Its defense will frustrate the Gators and ultimately send them to the NIT. Play: #520 Mississippi –5 (Risking 2 units).
Missouri –4½ over NEBRASKA
How many times have I written about this Missouri team and the constant disrespect it gets by the books and public? Joe Lunardi, ESPN’s college basketball “expert” doesn’t feel this team is a lock for the tournament and that may very well be the saddest/funniest line that’s come out of Bristol in a while. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: This Tiger’s team has a chance to go to the final four with the right tournament draw. Nebraska is a pathetic 1-10 in Big-12 conference play and has lost five in a row coming into today’s game. They rank last in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency and 4th from the bottom in defensive efficiency while shooting a terrible 46.3% from inside the arc. They don’t have a single NBA prospect and considering they play in a major conference it’s a major problem. Missouri is just miles ahead statistically and talent wise over this Nebraska team and the only thing keeping this number from being -8 or -9 is the home court. I won’t let that deter me from making the play on the better team. If you believe the media than Missouri needs all the wins it can get and that works to our advantage. The Tigers are simply too talented to not pull away from this feeble opponent. Play: #583 Missouri -4.5 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Mississippi State Bulldogs -6.5
After a tough overtime loss to Kentucky, expect the Bulldogs to take out their frustration on lowly LSU, which has lost 11 straight, today. The Bulldogs already have a 16-point win over LSU this season and I don't expect the Dogs to spare the Tigers in this spot. This seems to be the key: LSU is 0-7 ATS when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average of 9.3 points. The Tigers are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games. With this in mind, this line seems a little soft. We'll lay the points for 1 unit.
Matt Rivers
Florida +5
We're obviously not looking at a Florida team that still boasts Horford, Noah, Brewer, Humphrey and players like that but Billy Donovan does have a capable team and one that can without a doubt compete today in Oxford.
The Gators are 18-8 and really never seem to be out of a game. Granted Florida is not an explosive squad that just pummels inferior opponents but they also rarely ever get fully outclassed and embarassed.
Chris Warren is super talented and the Rebels at times have looked very good this season. Andy Kennedy's team started the season out in fine form but things have not been nearly as good of late. These guys have now dropped three of four after the home loss to Vanderbilt and the lone win, which was against Alabama, saw the Rebs fall behind by a whopping 20 points at the half. The second half was great but this team is just not playing very good ball and certainly not consistent winning type basketball.
Donovan's boys have eight losses on the season. Two have been by one point, one has been by three points and one has been by six points. My point is that these guys play close games and the Rebels right now are not a team that should just blow them out.
Ole Miss can win this game as they are a fairly skilled club with Warren, Polynice, White and a few others but they also can lose this game. It's really not that far from a 50-50 proposition in terms of just the win. Getting five or so with the visitors is almost like snatching up some free points.
Florida did have that very subpar effort a few games ago at home against Xavier but I'm not taking all that much from that one game. That was the Gators' one egg. Every team shrivels up like that at some point in a long season. The Musketeers are pretty good but, no doubt, that effort by Florida was awful.
Mississippi just needs a win right now. To ask them to win by more than a handful seems like a bit much.
Tony George
Kansas State -5.5 vs Oklahoma
Yeah the number gives me pause, but word is out of Manhattan that coach Martin was NOT happy with the performance against Nebraska, allowing the Huskers woeful offense 87 points in a thriller at home. Practice has been intense all week for this game. Not K State Hoops at its finest in the NU game, and I expect the Wildcats who have only 1 road loss in conference to get it done BIG Saturday against a reeling Oklahoma team who has dropped 3 straight including a 10 point loss to Colorado! K State has covered 8 out of 10 in this series, and has not forgotten a home loss to OU last year and will come in here focused and playing better defense, I assure you. I will lay it for a free play. Inconsistent scoring from OU will not get it done against the Wildcats.
Scott Spreitzer
Portland at Loyola Marymount
What a win on Thursday for Loyola-Marymount. The long-suffering program beat a ranked opponent for the first time since 1990, when they knocked-off Gonzaga! But trying to recover from the huge win in just 48-hours is going to be awfully tough. LMU is playing much better basketball this season, obviously, and head into tonight's tilt with a 14-13 record. But they have still struggled as a reasonably small underdog, covering just 6 of their last 23 when getting less than seven points. The Lions have not matched up well with Portland, even this season. The Pilots rocked LMU, 79-39 in January. They have now lost four in a row to Portland and five of the last six meetings, overall. Only one of those five Pilot wins came by less than 11 points, and that was an eight point win. Portland is also as good as it gets when priced as a road PK or fave, going 8-0, 100% ATS in their last eight chances. Look for Portland to end LMU's celebration with a big road win and cover on Saturday night.
Play on: Portland
VEGAS EXPERTS
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks
This is a dreadful spot for the visiting Heat. Sure they won by 13 last night, but they needed two overtimes to do so and the possibility of no Dwyane Wade for a second straight night means no chance in Dallas Saturday night. The Mavs have to improve upon that horrid home ATS mark sooner or later and off back to back impressive wins over Phoenix and Orlando, the time is now. They've beaten the Heat five straight times at home.
Play on: Dallas