SPORTS WAGERS
OKLAHOMA ST. -3½ over Texas A&M
This is a big underlay. The Cowboys schedule has to be considered one of the toughest in recent memory, yet they're 13-15 overall and 6-9 in the conference. That doesn't look great on paper but when you consider that the Cowboys played Stanford, Pitt, Tulsa, New Mexico, Alabama and Va. Tech twice before conference play began, it's really not that bad. It would be difficult to find another team in the country with a more difficult out-of-conference schedule. Then there's the conference schedule that has seen OSU play Mizzou, Iowa State and Baylor twice each and Kansas and K-State once. Ken Pomeroy, widely regarded as a top authority on college basketball, ranks Oklahoma State's strength of schedule as #1 in difficulty. Now the Cowboys will take on an Aggies team that they lost by 15 to back on Jan 28. However, that contest was after OSU played Iowa St, K-State and Mizzou. Now the Aggies are coming off back-to-back home games against #3 Missouri and #5 Kansas in which they lost by just 9 and 8 respectively to give them more credibility than they deserve. Again, those two games were at home. On the road, Texas A&M has one win this year and it came against 1-14 Texas Tech. The Aggies are not only in a letdown spot after two big games, they simply lack intensity on the road. This is a bad visitor in a bad spot against a passionate team playing in front of a passionate fan base. This has blowout written all over it. Play: #526 Oklahoma State -3½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
DEPAUL -1½ over Providence
Last place in the Big East is up for grabs here, as both clubs are 2-13 in the conference. The difference is that the Blue Demons are at home and they're undervalued because of seven straight losses. However, they had a 15-point lead on Louisville a week ago after games against Marquette, Notre Dame and UConn. They played at St. John's on Monday and led most of the way before falling by seven. This is really a great opportunity for them to snap this futility streak against a Friars team that has been sitting idle for a full week. Providence closes out its home schedule on Tuesday against the Huskies and that's a game that will bring a lot more focus to than this one. The Friars have dropped seven straight on the road and with virtually nothing to play for anymore, we envision them being here in body only. The Blue Demons shooters are superior, as is their PG play and Providence does not nearly bring the requirements needed here for a win against a motivated host. Play: #530 Depaul (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
We're also playing the following game:
DUKE/Virginia Under 138 Pinnacle
Duke/Virginia Tech Under 138 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Sean “Paddy” Murphy
North Carolina @ Virginia
PICK: North Carolina -4
Virginia has been an absolute beast at home this season, posting a 13-1 SU record. However, this will be the Cavaliers toughest test to date, as the Tar Heels roll in with their 11-2 ACC record, and a full head of steam following four consecutive dominant wins, both SU and ATS.
I'm thinking that the Cavs will need to play a nearly perfect game to hang with the Tar Heels for 40 minutes in this one. Do I see them accomplishing that task? No.
Virginia is 1-2-1 ATS over its last four games, and is coming off a narrow two-point win at rival Virginia Tech earlier this week. Yes, the Wahoos have been dominant here at home, but they've also faced a rather weak schedule, both in and out of conference. Save for an early season win over Michigan, I haven't been overly impressed by anything they've done here in Charlottesville.
North Carolina has played exceptionally well lately, but I still think there's room for improvement. Note that the Tar Heels have increased their offensive production in each of their last four games. After giving up 74 points at N.C. State earlier this week, I'm confident we'll see them focus on sharpening up their defense today.
Virginia is an ideal opponent to do that against, as the Cavaliers are averaging just over 63 points per game on the season. They've shot the ball fairly well in recent weeks, but I expect them to see their second-chance opportunities diminish against an outstanding rebounding team today.
Save for a Virginia upset in Chapel Hill back in January of 2010, this series has been all Tar Heels in recent years. Talent wins out again on Saturday.
JR O'Donnell
North Carolina -4
This "STRONG MEMBERS MOVE" has some national, but more importantly ACC implications, as the Tat Heels try to stay abreast of the Duke Blue Devils for the #1 seed in the ACC for the tournament. UNC is the #1 major college scoring team in the nation at 82.9 ppg, and Virginia is one of the top three defensive (points allowed) teams in the nation at 52.2 overall. There are some issues here, in that UNC outrebounds them (& everyone else) at "14" redounds per game. They are better at the point, better at the shooting guard, and have the best inside duo in the nation in Zellar and Henson. True UVA has Mike Scott who may be the ACC player of the year, but they are missing 7-0 center Assane Sene, and this is a HUGE problem for them on the boards, and defensively in the low post! Carolina is 5-0 SU in their last "5" on the road, and 4-1 SU in their last "5" on the road at UVA. Virginia is 2-5 ATS in their last "7" at home, and 1-8 SU in their last "9" vs. the Heels, and 1-4 SU in their last "5" home to UNC. Carolina is better in the backcourt by a lot, better in the frontcourt, and has a small edge in bench/depth. Power Rated @ - 8.555 points
Free NCAAB release for 2/25: Georgetown -9.5 over Villanova. We like the Hoyas to win by double-digits today at home vs a Wildcat team that is just 1-8 on the road this season. Georgetown has covered the number in four of the last five meetings with Villanova, and six of the last eight. Villanovas stock has decreased significantly this year while Georgetown remains strong, particularly at home where they are 13-1. Plus the Hoyas are coming off a tough loss at Seton Hall, so we expect them to bounce back with an exclamation point here. Georgetown is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Villanova is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. We'll side with the home chalk today in Georgetown -9.5. Our free plays are 166-88-1 overall. Sign up today for the best free basketball picks on the internet at www.iseewinners.com. Thank you, and best of luck today.
WUNDERDOG
Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois
Pick: Northern Iowa -3.5
A short time ago the Southern Illinois Salukis ruled the MVC and made some noise in the NCAA Tournament, but it is a program that has had a difficult time finding their way back to that level, or even close to it. The Salukis enter this contest at 8-21 on the season. They have the look of a team that has quit, losing their last five and playing well under the line with four straight ATS losses. Northern Iowa at 18-12 has been a pretty steady program each year and would love to get to 20 wins on the season, needing two more. This group of seniors would enjoy reaching the 20-win plateau for the fourth time in their four years here. The Panthers have the edge in talent and history as they are 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings between these clubs. Play on Northern Iowa.
Marc Lawrence
Oklahoma @ Baylor
PICK: Oklahoma
Huge game for the Sooners as they look to enhance their slim postseason chances with a major upset today. Apparently No. 14 Baylor didn’t get the memo that teams need to be playing their best basketball of the season when March – and tournament time – rolls around. No, after losing three of their last five SU and six of their last eight against the number, Scott Drew’s Bears appear more interested in taking a long winter’s nap than making a serious run at the Big 12 crown. That’s fine with us as we like Oklahoma to get revenge here for a 12-point home loss to Baylor back on January 24. The numbers, much like Shakira’s hips, don’t lie: OU owns a commanding 31-4 SU and 24-10-1 ATS mark in the series and Sooners head coach Lon Kruger chips in with a nearly unblemished 8-1 ATS effort as a dog of more than 4 points versus a sub .875 opponent. Meanwhile, the Bears take the court in the middle of a Lone Star sandwich, going 2-6 ATS after tangling with Texas and 1-6 ATS before rumbling with the Red Raiders. We’re not about to suggest that Oklahoma will skip out of Waco with the outright win, not when Wednesday’s win over Okie State in Bedlam, Part Two elevated the Sooners’ Big 12 record to a mere 4-11 SU. But with Baylor just 2-5 ATS as home chalk versus conference foes this season, we don’t expect the hosts to improve on their recent 2-3-1 ATS record versus .650 or less adversaries. Back the hungry dog as the Bears slide deeper into pointspread hibernation. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oklahoma.
SPORTS WAGERS
WINNIPEG +111 over St. Louis
Barring a major collapse, the Blues are going to the playoffs this year for the first time in three seasons and just the second time since '03. The reason they're going is because of the NHL's second best home record, which sees the Blue Notes with just four regulation losses all year. Away from home is different and the Blues’ sub .500 road record does not warrant them being the chalk here. Only three times this year have the Blues won consecutive road games and they're coming off an OT win in Nashville. This venue is going to be crazy this afternoon, as the Jets start the day in first place in the Southeast for a #3 seed in the conference. The Jets’ 19 home wins are third in the NHL behind only Detroit and St. Louis. Winnipeg is currently on a season-long eight-game home stand. They've picked up seven out of a possible eight points in the first four games with wins over Tampa Bay, Colorado and Boston. In the other game, they lost to Philly in OT. The Jets have scored four goals or more in every one of those games and have scored four or more in five straight. That should bode well here against a Blues team that rarely wins when the opposition scores three or more. Wrong side favored. Play: Winnipeg +111 (Risking 2 units).
NASHVILLE -½ +130 over San Jose
The Sharks will play their eighth straight road game here and will conclude their season long trip tomorrow in Minnesota. In the first six games of this journey they have two wins over two reeling teams, Washington and Toronto. They were clocked by the Jackets 6-3, they lost to Tampa Bay 6-5 and lost to Carolina as well. Against the Maple Leafs on Thursday, they were fortunate to hang on to that 2-1 win, after the entire third period was played in their own end. Frankly, San Jose looks awful. Play has been sloppy, goaltending is shaky and its defense appears to be lost out there. Nashville is not the team you want to be facing when you’re not at your best. The Predators play a sound brand of hockey and rarely beat themselves. They get outstanding goaltending, they have two of the league's premier d-men in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter and offensively, they're scoring goals. The Preds’ last five games have come against Chicago, Detroit, Dallas, Vancouver and St. Louis. They picked up points in four of those games with only miss being in Detroit when the Wings scored with five seconds remaining. The Sharks are widely perceived as being better than the Predators or at least on equal terms but that is a complete misconception. This is a great spot for the host to bury a fragile team playing its eighth successive road game. Play: Nashville -½ +130 (Risking 2 units).
Vegas Experts
Missouri at Kansas
Play: Missouri
Although the revenge angle is in play here, this is an overlay with the home team considering these teams played to a three-point game earlier in the year. Mizzou enters this one off a loss, at home to Kansas State, Tuesday night. They'll be ready to play. KU is 16-33 ATS when riding a win streak of 5+ games.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Texas -10.5 over TEXAS TECH: I know that Texas is on an ATS run of 8-17-1, but the Red raiders have an ATS mark of 8-20 in their last 28 games at home. Much like the St Mary's play the other night, in which i felt they needed an easy win for confidence, i see the same for Texas here. Good team for texas to be playing here as they have won the last 3 in this series by at least 16 points in each game, while 7 of their last 9 wins in this series has been by at least 12 points. The Red Raiders have been piss poor this year as they are just 1-14 in the Big 12 this year and have been outscored by at least 13 points in 11 of those losses, while being outscored by 17.1 ppg in their Big 12 losses overall. The have just 1 home in in the Big 12 and have been outscored by 20 ppg in their Big 12 losses, with only 1 of those losses coming by less than 13 points. TT is 328th in the nation in scoring at 59.6 ppg and while Texas is just 155th in points allowed (66.2 ppg), they are 58th in defensive FG% (40.6%), which should make it hard for this bad TT offense to get many good looks. The Longhorns are 58th in scoring (73.8 ppg) and they have averaged 69.8 ppg in the Big 12, but I do see them hitting 70 points tonight vs a Red Raiders team that has allowed 68.5 ppg in the Big 12. The Red Radiers have averaged just 50.6 ppg in their last 5 games and they have scored just 52.6 ppg in their 14 Big 12 losses, so I clearly don't see how they get more than 55 in this one, while the Longhorns should hit at least 70 of their own. I'll call for Texas by at least 18 here, as they build confidence for the Post season.
4 UNIT PLAY
Georgia State/ William & Mary over 127: The Panthers have been playing some higher scoring games of late and yes I know that two of them went to OT, but their last 4 games (regulation only) have still averaged 134 ppg. The GSU offense has been hot of late as they have averaged 68.8 ppg in their last 4 games ( regulation) and will be taking on a William & Mary squad that is just not that great on defense. A couple of games ago the Tribe did allowed just 63 and 54 points to Drexel and Northeastern respectively, but this is still a team that has allowed 71.3 ppg in their last 7 overall and 72.7 ppg at home. The Tribe does average a respectable 66.1 ppg at home, while the Panthers have allowed 61.6 ppg on the road this year and 65.2 ppg (regulation) in their last 4 games overall. I feel the Tribe can get at least 62 in this one, as their offense has been playing pretty well of late and they do score well at home. The Panthers, on the other hand, should hit the 70+ point mark vs a Tribe team that is just not that good on defense. Tribe home games this year have averaged 138.8 ppg on the year, but I will call for something slightly less than that as I see about 132 in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
KENTUCKY -11.5 over Vanderbilt: Kentucky is the best team in the nation, but they have been simply awesome at home this year. At Rupp arena the Cats are a stellar 17-0 and have outscored their opponents by 22.4 ppg on their home floor, while in the SEC they have gone 6-0 on their home floor and have outscored those opponents by 19.3 ppg. Vanderbilt is a solid 20-8 on the year, but they come in just 4-3 in their last 7 games and 2-2 in their last 4 on the road. In their last 2 games their offense has really struggled as they put up just 60 ppg on 40.5% shooting in the two games vs Georgia and South Carolina. That's not gonna get the job done here as Kentucky on this floor is allowing just 59.2 ppg on 36.5% shooting for the year. Vandy's defense looked good in their last 2 games, but South Carolina and Georgia are not offensive juggernauts. Vandy has allowed 66.8 ppg on the road this year, but they have given up 73 points or more in 3 of teir last 4 road games. The Cats are rolling right now and they should have no problems with a Vanderbilt team hat has been mediocre at best of late.
North Carolina -3.5 over VIRGINIA: The Cavs know how to play some defense, that's for sure, as they come in allowing just 52.1 ppg overall and 48.2 ppg at home this year, but the Heels have a good enough offense to crack their defense. In the first meeting North Carolina was just the second team this year to put more than 61 points on the board (70) vs the Cavs and the only ACC squad to do so. Granted that was at home, but this heels team has a lot of firepower that they can score on anone and anywhere and they do average 76.5 ppg on the road this year. The Heels do allow 71.4 ppg on the road, but their defense overall has played better as they have allowed just 60.5 ppg in their last 4 games and will be facing a Cavs offense that just doesn't score well as they have averaged just 63.1 ppg overall and 66.4 ppg at home. The Heels will get thier points off of this defense, but I just don't see the Cavs scoring enough to keep it close. Heels by 7 or 8 here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Iowa State +7.5 over KANSAS STATE: The Wildcats are off Texas, Kansas and then BB wins vs Baylor and Missouri (both on the road), so they may be a bit spent for this one and Iowa state is more than capable of haning with this team even if the situation was regular. You may see an outright upset here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Old Dominion/ Drexel Over 118.5: ODU's home games have averaged 128.2 ppg, while their last 5 overall have averaged 132.6 ppg. Drexel's last 6 have hit at least 119 poiints, while their last last 5 games overall have averaged 129 ppg. Important game that should be close and we have possibility of OT and a lot of FT's at the end. Mid 120's in this one.
More later
Harry Bondi
S Alabama +2.5
How can Florida International be favored over anyone right now let alone a South Alabama squad that has won four in a row and is playing its best basketball of the season right now. Golden Panthers are 7-20 overall and are 1-9 straight up at home. Jag's are coming off a 79-76 outright win over a much better Florida Atlantic team on Thursday (we had South Alabama on the phones!) Wrong team is favored here, the small dog South Alabama over Florida International.
Hollywood Sports
Cal Poly SLO at Cal-Santa Barbara
Prediction: Cal-Santa Barbara
The Gauchos (15-9) return home after playing three straight games -- as well as seven of their last eight games -- on the road. UC-Santa Barbara is 8-3 on their home court with an average winning margin of +7.1 PPG based on the strength of a tough defense that holds their opponents to just a 38.8% shooting percentage. The Gauchos also look to rebound from their 70-58 loss at Long Beach State on Wednesday as a 7.5-point underdog -- and they have bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. UC-Santa Barbara is 3rd in the Big West with their 9-4 record. However, their deeper metrics suggest they are a bit underrated. The Gauchos net Points-Per-Possession conference efficiency margin of +0.07 (Offensive PPP: 1.07; Defensive PPP: 1.00) is 2nd best in the Big West. Cal Poly SLO (15-13) has lost two games in a row after their 81-73 loss at Northern Colorado as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Expect the Mustangs to remain flat in this one since they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Cal-Poly SLO has also failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games after a point spread defeat. The Mustangs are 4th in the Big West with their 6-7 conference record. Cal Poly SLO's +0.01 net PPP conference efficiency margin (Offensive PPP: 1.06; Defensive PPP: 1.05) is 5th in the Big West by far behind the Gauchos' efficiency margins. Tellingly, the Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Cal Poly SLO has also failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. And the Mustangs have failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games on the road. Furthermore, Cal Poly SLO has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Santa Barbara. Look for those trends to continue in this one. Take UC-Santa Barbara minus the points.
OC Dooley
Georgia State -8.5
The intangible surrounds one of the season goals for Georgia State as this afternoon they attempt to garner win #20 on what is their final contest of the regular campaign. Georgia State almost pulled off that goal back on Wednesday in a game they lost at home in overtime. The month of February has been excellent for today’s road favorite (5-2) with the only setbacks featuring games that extended into an overtime session. One of the reasons why Georgia State is in line to garner a 20-victory campaign for just the fourth time in school history has to do with an excellent defense that has permitted on average just 59’ points per game which is tops in the conference. The first Colonial Conference league game this season for Georgia State just happened to be against today’s opponent as they dominated William-and-Mary in a 66-34 rout. Georgia State comes into today’s regular season finale with Top-3 conference rankings in defense, scoring margin, turnover margin and assists-to-turnover ratio. For whatever the reason Saturday’s have been a disaster for William-and-Mary (1-7 ATS) with the average losing margin at “eleven points” which opens the door for the visiting side to cash a winning ticket
Steve Janus
Michigan -5½
My money is on the Michigan Wolverines to improve to 16-0 at home this season, and easily cover this 5.5-point spread. Michigan went on the road and beat Purdue earlier this season, and now they will finish up the regular season at home with a big win tonight.
Purdue is a solid basketball team, they are just 8-7 in conference play. The Boilermakers are a horrible 5-16 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite since 1997.
Michigan is 18-8 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons, 8-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Jack Jones
Clemson -4
The Clemson Tigers are showing solid value at home today as just a 4-point favorite over the NC State Wolfpack. The Wolfpack have lost three straight coming in, including back-to-back home losses by double-digits. It's safe to say they are feeling pretty deflated right now.
Look for Clemson to pounce on them early while continuing to play solid basketball today. Clemson has won three of their last four with all three victories coming by double-digits. What's most impressive is that three of those four contests were on the road.
NC State is 1-9 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Wolfpack are 7-21 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Clemson is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Bet Clemson Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit South Carolina +3
The Volunteers have been fool's gold when laying points on the road. They are just are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. Tennessee is just 2-10 in all games away from home this season and is just 1-8 in its last 9 true road games. Take the Gamecocks.