Hollywood Sports
Boise St. at Nevada
Play: Boise St.
The Broncos (16-11) are a team playing with a bunch of momentum. Their 70-56 win at Fresno State was their fourth win in a row which has elevated them to 3rd place in the WAC standings. Boise State have proven themselves to be solid propositions away from home given their 8-7 record. The reason for this can be seen in their effective pressure defense that is 3rd in the nation by stealing the ball in 13.1% of their opponent's possessions while ranking 8th in the nation by having their opponent's turn the ball over in 25.7% of their possessions. This is certainly a vulnerability for Nevada (11-16) as they are turning the ball over in 22.1% of their possessions (224th in the nation). The Wolf Pack have lost two of their last three games after their 67-59 loss to Idaho. While they did defeat the Broncos in their January 15th meeting by a 69-67 score, Nevada did turn the ball over seventeen times. Boise State has improved a great deal since that time. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog of under seven points. With revenge on their mind and the motivation to earn a double-bye in the upcoming WAC Tournament, look for the Broncos' defensive pressure to lead them to victory. Take Boise State Saturday night.
Joel Tyson
Missouri at KANSAS STATE (-3)
Frank Martin's Wildcats have another chance at upping their postseason stock if they can come through with the win at home today against conference rival Missouri, and I think they will do just that.
Kansas State is on a 3-game conference win and cover streak that includes knocking off then-number one Kansas and it also includes a very nice road win at Nebraska a place where the Cornhuskers had lost just once this season.
Back at home I fully expect the Wildcats to get out early, and stay out in front of Mizzou.
Missouri enters play today on a 4-game winning streak, but only one of those wins came on the road, and beating Iowa State in Ames does not qualify as a "step up" road win.
For the season the Tigers are just 4-7 against the spread in their lined road games, and at 21-43 against the spread overall their last 64 lined away dates, you can see Missouri is not a team that travels "well".
Series numbers show the home team with 8 straight wins, and a 10-1 spread mark the last 11 times these schools have faced one another. Included is a double-digit Missouri rout of Kansas State back in the middle of January.
Revenge-time for K-State, as the Wildcats take care of business at home both straight up and against the spread.
Lay it!
5♦ KANSAS STATE
Southern Illinois at INDIANA STATE (-8')
As for your free play, looking at a MVC contest for Saturday, and I see that Indiana State's little hiccup is now firmly in the past, as the Sycamores come into this home game against the Salukis of Southern Illinois with wins in 4 of their last 5, and covers in 5 of their last 6.
Included is a solid road win at Southern Illinois as the 2-point dog. No issue at all laying a few with an Indiana State team that is 9-3 straight up, and 7-4 against the spread on their home hardwood this season, and the Sycamores are facing a Saluki squad that just poses no threat away from home.
Southern Illinois is 4-9 this season in all away games, and a money-burning 3-8-1 against the spread in lined away games.
State has controlled this Missouri Valley rivalry of late, as they not only won outright at Southern Illinois earlier this month, but the Sycamores have now won and covered 3 of the last 4 series showdowns.
Make it 4 of 5 as Indiana State continues their late season surge.
2♦ INDIANA STATE
Joel Tyson
Vanderbilt (-9) at LSU
As for your free play this afternoon, looking for Vanderbilt to bounce-back after going ice-cold on Tuesday night at home against Tennessee as they went from 11 in front to losing outright by 9.
The Commodores were on a 5-game winning streak prior to their mid-week meltdown against the Vols. I expect them to get healthy again against an LSU team that is just 11-17 for the year, and just snapped a 10-game conference losing streak with the underdog stunner at Miss State earlier this week.
Trent Johnson's team will be happy that they ended their misery, and will fall behind against the hungry 'Dores who are a righteous 8-2-1 against the spread on the road this season.
Vandy has also captured 4 straight in this series, going 3-1 against the spread in those 4 straight up victories.
Road wood no issue today for the 'Dores who need to get the bitter taste of their Tennessee loss out of their mouths tonight.
Vandy to roll.
3♦ VANDERBILT
Bobby Maxwell
BYU at SAN DIEGO ST. (-3)
For my comp selection, this isn’t just one the most anticipated game in San Diego State sports history, this is one of the most anticipated games in the history of the city of San Diego. The entire city is Aztec-crazy lately as the Mountain West team is ranked sixth in the country and on national TV today in its showdown with BYU. With an arena as wild as it can be today, I’m going with the home team to win this one and storm the court. Lay the points with the Aztecs.
The game has been sold out for months and the students began lining up Wednesday for this one. And there’s the payback factor for the Aztecs whose only blemish this season is their 71-58 loss in Provo, Utah as 5 ½-point underdogs. Since then, San Diego State has won seven in a row and they’ve cashed in three of their last four.
Obviously, the key for BYU is the play of the nation’s leading scorer Jimmer Fredette. He has torched the Aztecs over the years and scored 43 points in the first meeting a month ago. Last year in San Diego he had 33 points in a 71-69 BYU victory. Wednesday, he scored 34 points in the Cougars’ 84-76 win against Colorado State.
Look for San Diego State coach Steve Fisher to run a lot of players at Fredette and give him a lot of different looks. The Aztecs are on ATS surges of 30-12-1 on Saturdays, 20-7 as a home chalk of up to 6 ½ points, 14-3 at home against teams with a winning road record and 12-4-1 against winning teams overall. BYU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road underdog.
This game is too important to the Aztecs and to the crazy crowd that will be there to lose. Look for a close game but a late San Diego State run will get them the win and cover. They will dominate the final 8 minutes of the game. Play San Diego State today
3♦ SAN DIEGO ST.
Stephen Nover
Florida (+8') at KENTUCKY
Off my win with the Utah Jazz last night, I'm looking at two winners for today, including Florida plus the points against Kentucky in SEC action. My complimentary NBA winner is available in the appropriate section at this site.
Sure Kentucky is darn good at home. The Wildcats have won 32 in a row at Rupp Arena.
But this number is too high given where these teams are at right now.
Florida is 22-5 and 11-2 in the SEC. Kentucky is 19-8 and 7-6 in the SEC.
So a strong case can be made that Florida is the better team. That's the way the AP pollsters see it with the Gators ranked 13th and Kentucky 22nd.
No doubt Kentucky is going to be primed for this matchup after losing 77-76 in overtime at Arkansas this past Wednesday.
Can Kentucky's youth be trusted, though? The Wildcats have failed to cover in six of their last eight games.
The Gators are playing well having won six in a row and 14 of their last 16. They beat Kentucky, 70-68, earlier this month.
The Gators also have covered in five of their last seven visits to Rupp Arena.
2♦ FLORIDA
Scott Delaney
Gonzaga (-15) at SAN DIEGO
I don't know how in the hell the Zags continue their mystique in the West Coast Conference, but it appears their dominance once again will carry through.
After beating St. Mary's on Thursday night, the Bulldogs are in the driver's seat to win the league title for a record 11th straight season.
That's impressive.
San Diego started the whole brew ha ha, when it upset St. Mary's last week, allowing Gonzaga to pull closer to the Gaels. With Thursday's overtime win over St. Mary's the Zags created a first-place tie for themselves.
They can wrap things up with another dominating win over the hapless Toreros, whom Gonzaga beat down, 86-53, in Spokane last month, a win that ignited the team's current seven-game conference winning streak.
I know San Diego's mystique with Gonzaga, but the Toreros aren't the same thorn in the side they've been in year's past.
They're horrible.
I'll lay the chalk with Gonzaga tonight, and look for another blowout win.
1♦ GONZAGA
Stephen Nover
Chicago (-3) at MILWAUKEE
Off my win with the Utah Jazz last night, I'm looking at two winners for today, including Chicago minus the points against Milwaukee in Central Division action. My complimentary College winner is available in the appropriate section at this site.
While the Bucks have regressed this season, the Bulls have improved so much under Tom Thibodeau that they rank just behind Boston and Miami as the top contender in the Eastern Conference.
The Bulls are off a huge home victory versus Miami, but can't afford to take any games off trying to chase the Celtics and Heat down for best record.
There is a huge class difference between Chicago and Milwaukee. The Bulls are 11-0 in the Central Division. The Bucks are 3-6 in the division.
While the Bulls are just 13-13 on the road, the Bucks are only 14-13 at home.
The Bulls are 14-4 in their last 18 games, 5-1 in their past six. Milwaukee is 3-9 in its last 12.
The Bucks have suffered multiple injuries. They are finally healthy. Chicago, though, also has been banged up having lost Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah for long stretches.
But now the Bulls are at full strength, too. This will be Noah's third game back. The Bulls are 2-0 against the Bucks this season, winning by an average of 12 points. Both games were at United Center, but the Bulls didn't have Noah in either contest.
The road price is short to get the far superior team.
1♦ CHICAGO
Matt Fargo
Wichita State @ Missouri State
PICK: Missouri State -1
You couldn’t ask for a better regular season finale in the MVC as Wichita St. heads to Missouri St. to play for the regular season championship. The Bears have already defeated Wichita St. once this season and while that sets up a revenge game for the Shockers, the final home game of the season for Missouri St. supersedes that. The Bears are 7-1 at home in the conference with the only loss coming by just a single point to Northern Iowa. Wichita St. was the overwhelming favorite to win the conference this season it has played well enough to do so with a 14-3 record but not many people expected the Shockers to be challenged. They have actually performed better on the road than at home this season as they are 9-1 outside of Charles Koch Arena with the only loss being a non-conference setback at San Diego St. Wichita St. is a perfect 8-0 in road MVC games which is a strong reason why the line is as low as it is. Wichita St. has been an underdog only two times this season and it failed to cover both of those games and going back further, the Shockers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of fewer than seven points. They are also just 3-8 ATS this season against teams coming off a win so stopping momentum has been a problem. Meanwhile, Missouri St. is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against teams with a winning road record. On the season it is 19-4 as a favorite and a win here also means a cover. 3* Missouri St. Bears
SPORTS WAGERS
VIRGINIA TECH +4/+178 over Duke
9:00 PM EST. The Dukies are once again the top-ranked team in the nation and once again that will probably change before the Dance begins. This year’s field is a lot more wide open than in previous years, meaning there are no great teams and the Blue Devils are absolutely in that group. So, what we have here is the extremely popular, #1-ranked Dukies and their seven straight wins a small favorite on the road against a Hokies team that is on the bubble and could will their way into the tourney with a win here. The Hokies are a well-balanced squad that can go toe-to-toe with these Blue Devils and can also play just about any style too. VT can score, they can play defense and they’ll be ready for the Dukies and their barrage of three’s. The ACC is not that strong this year and while Duke has a lot of wins, the last real quality team or potential tournament participant team they played on the road, St. John’s, they were buried. The Hokies are another quality team they’ll have to face on the road and besides that, when you wager on Duke you always have to pay a premium to do so and that’s something that rarely comes recommended. Hokies outright. Play: #666 Virginia Tech +4 (Risking 1.02 units to win 1). Play: Virginia Tech +178 (Risking 1 unit).
AUBURN +4 over Arkansas
1:30 PM EST. Both these teams are going nowhere and there’s just no way we’re laying road points with a Razorback team that is coming off a giant OT win over Kentucky on Wednesday. Arkansas is 6-7 in the conference and all the teams below them are all junk SEC clubs. The Razorbacks have already lost road games at LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi St and last Saturday they were buried in Alabama. The Razorbacks are 7-8 since a loss at Texas (79-46) on Jan 4th and again, they’re coming off that monstrous home win over Kentucky in a game they played their hearts out for 53 minutes. The Tigers are a nothing team that has lost three in a row and 11 of 14 games. Having said that, Auburn can close out the season with three consecutive wins, as they have Mississippi and LSU on deck. The Tigers last two wins have come at South Carolina and then at home over Mississippi St and they’re in a tremendous spot to pick up another win. In any event, this one is not about wagering on Auburn. It’s all about wagering against a vulnerable and not very good Razorback squad on the road laying points. Play: #534 Auburn +4 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
MINNESOTA –5 over Michigan
4:30 PM EST. What the hell happened to the Gophers? Here’s a team that was 16-4 after beating Northwestern on Jan 26. Since then, Minnesota has just one win in seven games and that includes three straight losses at home, the latter two to Illinois and Michigan St. The Gophers biggest problem is offense or lack thereof. They go on these prolonged droughts and when that happens they can get badly outscored. Thing is, this venue has always been their savior. They’ll be folks hanging off the rafters for this one and it’s hard to imagine these Golden Gophers dropping four in a row in a place they seldom lose even one game. Our philosophy has always been “sell high and buy low” and that’s precisely what we’re doing here. The Wolverines are coming off four extremely intense games in succession. That takes a toll. They lost by a point to Wisconsin on Wednesday and last Saturday they won in OT in Iowa. Prior to that they lost by a deuce against Illinois and beat Indiana by four. Michigan will now play its third on the road in its last four games and it’s not like they’re a good team. They, too, have serious scoring woes to go along with poor rebounding skills and the Gophers should find the Wolverines style of play and lack of scoring much more to their liking. Play: #590 Minnesota –5 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Info Plays
3* Chicago Bulls -3.5
Reasons why Chicago will cover:
1) Play against home teams revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 85 points. It's 78-42 over the last 5 seasons.
2) Normally we like to fade teams who have played 3 games in 4 days, but the Bulls are 11-3 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season.
3) The Bucks are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central, and a winless 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Matt Rivers
San Diego State -3.5
There is no doubt that Jimmer Fredette is insanely great and a guy who can lead the Cougars to a victory in any single game. But with the Aztecs being pretty much great and in a revenge situation I just don't see them letting that happen at home.
Steve Fisher's squad is legit. Yes BYU is as well and they proved that in the first meeting along with pretty much every single other game this season but now going away from Provo is not going to result in a Cougar sweep.
SDSU is a few victories away from a number one seed in the tournament and this is one of those few victories that they will need to get. Kawhi Leonard is a star and there is a quality-surrounding cast led by Malcolm Thomas and D.J. Gay. These guys are an amazing 27-1 and have truly smacked around all comers, whether on the east coast the west coast or wherever. The team is extremely experienced and senior laden and at home should be able to defend their home court for sure in this revenge situation. To be honest with you I don't see the Aztecs right now losing to anybody at home and BYU is borderline great with a superstar in Fredette but they aren't the same dominant force on the road and will get somewhat exposed today outside of their cozy comfort zone with altitude.
The Cougars will compete as the Aztecs did on the road for the bulk of the first meeting but in the end it's asking a bit too much as San Diego State gets a well deserved school record 28th victory somewhere in the neighborhood of around 10 points.
Tom Freese
Dallas Mavericks vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Dallas Mavericks -9½
Washington is 15-42 straight up this year. The Wizards are 14-33 ATS their last 47 games when playing with no rest. The Wizards are 9-22 ATS their last 31 games as an underdog. The Wizards are 5-12 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. Dallas is 41-16 straight up this year. The Mavericks are 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 games following a straight up win by more than 10 points. Dallas is 6-1 ATS their last 7 road games and they are 20-8-1 their last 29 games when playing with two days of rest. Dallas is 21-7 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game.
Black Widow
1* on Memphis +4.5
Currently sitting at 21-7, the Memphis Tigers are really starting to play up to their potential. Memphis is 5-1 in their last six games overall, beating solid teams in Gonzaga and UCF on the road while also beating Southern Miss and UAB at home. UTEP is not playing well, only covering one of their last eight games overall. Memphis is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) as a road underdog or pick since 1997. The Tigers are 94-55 ATS (+33.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games since 1997. Memphis is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Miners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the road team is also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Memphis and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on St. Mary's -10.5
Off 3 straight defeats and looking to avenge brutal 15-point loss at Portland last month, expect the Gaels to rise to the occasion in this highly motivated spot. The Gaels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Pilots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lastly, the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.
Tony George
Missouri vs. Kansas State
Play: Missouri +4
They are better than Kansas State here. KSU off a huge road win at Nebraska on Wednesday, short week and Texas on deck Monday Night for KSU, great sandwhich spot for Mizzou to step in and pull off a HUGE road win and play themselves into a nice Big 12 tourney seed.
Patrick Webb
Missouri vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -3½
I like KSU in this match up. KSU has won 5 of 6 Big 12 games three double digit home victories, while Missouri has its only conference victory on the road versus lowly ISU. Kansas State is a team that needs to finish strong for any chance of an at large selection, while Missouri and coast to the end of the season with a bid likely clinched.
K-State is a very strong team at home this season, with wins over Baylor and a convincing win over Kansas 12 days ago. They shoot much better at home (+6% from three over overall # at 43.2%) and have had a reliable guard option emerge in Rodney McGruder to help take pressure off of Jacob Pullen. KSU also has decent size in Samuels, Kelly and Henriquez- Roberts to help combat Missouri's talented down low duo of Ratliffe and Bowers.
Missouri is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a .600 or above road record, while KSU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-0 as a home favorite.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Kansas State -3.5
Having won 3 in a row and 5 of 6, the Wildcats are starting to play like most thought they would all along. They won't be lacking any motivation today as they look to avenge last month's 75-59 loss at Mizzou. Winning at home hasn't been a problem for K-State. The Wildcats are 14-2 in their home gym, winning these contests by an average of 16.7 points. This mark includes a recent 84-68 victory over Kansas. The fact that K-State is coming off a win at Nebraska is extremely important. That's because the Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 78.1 to 63.7 in this situation. Lay the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Florida @ Kentucky
PICK: Florida +8.5
The Gators are red hot as they have won six straight games and 14 of their last 16. That said, we see a lot of line value here as Florida is a good sized underdog at Kentucky on Saturday. Yes, the Wildcats have won 32 straight at Rupp Arena but, winning a game and covering a game are two different things! This is especially true when you’re talking about a point spread that is up in the range of eight points! Note that Kentucky is an ugly 4-9 ATS in SEC action this season. Also, the Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points the last three seasons combined. As for the Gators, they are a confident team coming in on a red hot roll and they already defeated the Wildcats three weeks ago in Florida. The Gators are a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season and all five wins have been outright victories. While they may not be able to pull off the upset here, the Gators certainly are very capable of keeping this game very close all the way through. That said, consider a small play on Florida plus the points in Saturday afternoon NCAAB action!
EZWINNERS
Boston Celtics -8
The Clippers and Celtics both made trades right before the deadline on Thursday, but I'm not sure that the Clippers trade will impact them on the court in a positive way. The Clippers rookie star Blake Griffin was developing a nice chemistry with point guard Baron Davis who was traded away, and the newly acquired Mo Williams is nursing a sprained ankle. I'm not sure how LA's legs will be for this game. This is the first official home game for the Clippers after a long eleven game road trip that started on February 4th and extended through the All-Star break and this is also the second of a back to back (they played the Lakers here as a road game last night) and the Clippers fourth game in five nights. Boston is coming off of a tough loss against Denver on Thursday and they should have the newly acquired Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic avaliable for this game. The Clippers are just 1-5 against the spread in the second game of their last six back to back situations and I expect those struggles to continue. Lay the points.