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(2) Kentucky (26-1, 14-11 ATS) at (19) Tennessee (20-7, 10-13-1 ATS)
Just two weeks removed from their first meeting of the year, these SEC rivals clash again when the Wildcats travel to Knoxville’s Thompson-Boling Arena to face Tennessee.
Kentucky won its first 19 games of the year, got tripped up SU and ATS at South Carolina on Jan. 26, and has since won eight in a row – most recently avenging the loss to the Gamecocks with Thursday’s 82-61 home blowout as a 16-point favorite. The Wildcats are putting up 80.5 ppg (10th nationally) on 48.1 percent shooting, while allowing 65.2 ppg on just 37.8 percent shooting (sixth).
The Volunteers have been up and down lately, dropping three of their last five games (1-4 ATS), including a 75-62 setback at Florida on Tuesday as a two-point pup. During the five-game stretch, Tennessee has been outscored by an average of about five ppg (70.6-65.4), but four of those contests – including all three losses – were on the road. At home, where they’re 13-1 SU but only 5-6 ATS, the Vols pile up 82.0 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting and give up 63.9 ppg on 37.5 percent shooting.
Kentucky has cashed in the last five meetings in this rivalry (4-1 SU), including the 73-62 home win two weeks ago as a 9½-point favorite. Last year in Knoxville, the ‘Cats rolled 90-72 as a six-point pup, moving to 4-1 ATS on their last five Tennessee trips. That said, the home team has cashed in five of the last seven meetings. Also, the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 contests
The Wildcats are on ATS upswings of 4-0 overall (all in the SEC), 7-2 on the highway, 5-0 on Saturday, 4-0 against winning teams and 5-1 versus squads with a win percentage above .600. On the flip side, the Vols are on ATS slides of 2-8 overall (all in SEC action), 0-6 after a SU loss, 1-4 at home, 2-5 against winning teams and 2-5 after a non-cover.
The under for Kentucky is on runs of 4-1 overall (all in SEC play), 5-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against winning teams, and Tennessee is on “under” streaks of 23-9 overall, 6-1 at home, 6-2 in SEC play, 6-0 after a non-cover and 4-1 after a SU loss. Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings overall, but the over has hit in four of the last five Knoxville clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
Notre Dame (18-10, 11-10-1 ATS) at (11) Georgetown (19-7, 12-10)
The Hoyas look to beef up their postseason credentials when they play host to Notre Dame in a Big East tilt at the Verizon Center.
Georgetown has been a middling operation lately, going splitting its last eight games (both SU and ATS), but rallied to beat Louisville 70-60 Tuesday as a four-point road underdog to halt a two-game SU and ATS hiccup. The Hoyas are the fourth-best shooting team in the country, connecting on 49.9 percent of their shots, including 39.3 percent from three-point range (19th), while allowing 40.9 percent shooting. The Hoyas are 11-3 (5-6 ATS) at the Verizon Center, where they shoot even better, hitting at a 51.4 percent clip.
The Fighting Irish’s flagging NCAA hopes got a slight boost Wednesday night with a 68-53 victory over No. 12 Pittsburgh as a one-point home pup, despite Notre Dame not having leading scorer Luke Harongody (knee) for the third straight game. The Irish went 10 of 18 from three-point range against Pitt and they rate fourth in the nation behind the arc, hitting 41.5 percent. The Irish allow a whopping average of 80 ppg on the road this season, while scoring 74.7. They’ve lost six of seven true road games, but cashed in the last two (at Louisville and at Seton Hall).
Last season, Notre Dame beat Georgetown 73-67 as a three-point home favorite, ending a 5-0 SU run by the Hoyas in this rivalry (4-1 ATS). The home team and the favorite 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the SU winner is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Hoyas are on ATS nosedives of 7-24-1 coming off a pointspread victory, 2-6 at home against teams with a losing road record and a meager 10-23 within the Big East. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is on a 16-34-1 ATS plunge in its last 51 games following a spread-cover.
The over for Georgetown is on surges of 6-1 at home and 4-0 on Saturday, but the under for the Hoyas is on upswings of 4-0 after a SU win, 46-21 after a spread-cover and 5-2 in the Big East. Notre Dame is on “under” runs of 13-3 after a spread-cover, 4-1 after a SU win and 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(21) Texas (22-6, 10-14 ATS) at (22) Texas A&M (19-8, 15-8 ATS)
The Longhorns, trying to regain the form that led to a 17-0 start, make the trip to College Station to face Big 12 and in-state rival Texas A&M at Reed Arena.
Texas has followed a 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS purge by winning its last two games, beating Texas Tech 71-67 as a 6½-point road chalk last Saturday, then topping Oklahoma State 69-59 laying nine points at home Wednesday. The Longhorns average 82.5 ppg (fifth in the country) on 47.2 percent shooting, while allowing 67.8 ppg on 38.9 percent shooting. However, they’re just 5-4 in true road games, including 3-3 when visiting Big 12 foes (1-5 ATS)
After a 6-1 SU surge, Texas A&M dropped two of its last three games, including a 70-66 loss at Baylor on Wednesday. However, the Aggies cashed as a 6½-point chalk and have now reeled off seven straight ATS victories. On the year, A&M has outscored opponents by about six ppg (71.3-65.0), but on the home court, the Aggies average 73.5 ppg and give up just 59.0 ppg. They’ve won 13 of 14 in College Station (6-4 ATS in lined games).
Texas A&M has cashed in three straight and four of the last five in this rivalry, despite going just 2-3 SU in that stretch. On Jan. 16, Texas needed overtime to pull out a 72-67 home victory, falling far short as a 14½-point chalk. The Aggies are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall and 7-0 in the last seven College Station clashes, and the home team is on an 11-4-1 ATS tear.
The Longhorns are on a plethora of pointspread purges, including 3-12 overall, 6-20-1 in conference play, 5-15-1 on the road, 3-11 against winning teams, 1-6 on Saturday and 1-8 after a SU win. Conversely, along with their current 7-0 ATS surge, the Aggies are on pointspread rolls of 6-0 against winning teams, 25-8 after a SU loss, 19-7 in Big 12 play, 5-2 at home and 35-17 on Saturday.
Texas is on “over” streaks of 9-2 after a spread-cover, 8-2 on Saturday, 7-3 on the highway and 18-8 after a SU win. A&M, meanwhile, sports “under” runs of 4-0 overall (all in the Big 12), 6-2 at home, 5-1 after a SU loss and 6-2 on Saturday. The under has also been the play in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry, including the Jan. 16 contest, despite it going to overtime.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M
Arizona State (20-8, 11-13 ATS) at California (19-9, 15-12 ATS)
The top two teams in an underwhelming Pac-10 Conference square off when the Sun Devils head north to Berkeley’s Haas Pavilion for a battle Cal.
Arizona State has won four in row and six of its last seven games (4-3 ATS), including Thursday’s 68-60 win at Stanford as a 2½-point favorite. The Sun Devils average 68.4 ppg on 45.8 percent shooting, but their defense is the key, allowing just 58.5 ppg (seventh in the nation) on 39.6 percent shooting. On average, ASU has barely outscored foes on the road this year, averaging 66.1 ppg and giving up 65.8. That said, since losing their first two conference games of the season (both on the road at UCLA and USC), the Sun Devils are 5-1 SU and ATS on the highway
The Bears are on a 5-1 SU and ATS roll, having hammered Arizona 95-71 Thursday night as a 12-point home chalk, following a 64-49 win at Oregon last Saturday giving 6½ points. In fact, all five of Cal’s wins during their current run have come by double digits. The Bears have run up a 14-1 home mark this year (5-8 ATS in lined action) on the strength of averaging 83.1 ppg, while allowing 63.9 ppg.
California is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 78-70 road win catching four points on Jan. 28. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, the road team is on a 16-5 ATS run, and the Sun Devils have cashed on five of their last six trips to Berkeley. The SU winner has covered in the last 11 meetings.
The Sun Devils have beaten the spread in just two of their last eight Saturday games, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests and 5-2 ATS in their last seven coming off a spread-cover. The Bears are on ATS upticks of 5-1 overall (all in the Pac-10), 4-1 at home and 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
The under is 4-1 in ASU’s last five starts (all in the Pac-10), but the over is 13-2 in its last 15 against winning teams. In addition, Cal is on “over” tears of 4-1 overall, 10-0 against winning teams, 15-5-1 at home, 35-15-1 in the Pac-10, 50-19-1 after a SU win, and 42-17-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 13 of the last 16 clashes overall and six of the last eight at Cal.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CALIFORNIA and OVER
(10) New Mexico (26-3, 17-9-2 ATS) at (13) BYU (26-3, 16-10 ATS)
The scorching-hot Lobos go after their 13th consecutive win overall and their seventh straight road victory, traveling to the Marriott Center to face Brigham Young in a battle of the Mountain West Conference’s top two teams.
New Mexico hasn’t lost since Jan. 9, when it fell to visiting UNLV 74-62 as a five-point chalk. The Lobos are on a 12-0 SU tear (7-4-1 ATS), but they’ve barely escaped in their last two, holding off Air Force 59-56 last Saturday in Albuquerque and pulling out a 72-66 win over Colorado State on Tuesday, failing to cover as a big favorite in both games. New Mexico is 11-2 (7-4-1 ATS) away from home, averaging 74.9 ppg and giving up 68.8.
BYU has won four in a row SU and ATS, with three of those wins coming by 22 points or more and all four coming by at least 14 points. On Wednesday, the Cougars rolled past San Diego State 82-68 laying 7½ points at home. BYU rates in the top 10 nationally in points per game (82.8, third), field-goal percentage (48.9, eighth), three-point percentage (42.0, third) and free-throw percentage (77.9, first).
New Mexico is 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three meetings in this rivalry, following a 6-0 SU and ATS run by Brigham Young. A month ago at the Pit, the Lobos prevailed 76-72 as a 1½-points home chalk. The SU winner has cashed in 16 straight meetings in this rivalry, the home team is on a 5-1 ATS string, and the chalk has covered in nine of the last 13 clashes. Finally, BYU is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings overall and 7-0 in the last seven Provo contests.
The Lobos are on ATS runs of 19-9-2 overall, 3-1-1 on the road and 15-7 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but they are also 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight Saturday games. The Cougars are on spread-covering sprees of 4-0 overall (all in the Mountain West), 8-3 at home, 4-1 after a SU win, 6-2 on Saturday 14-5 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 16-6 after an ATS win.
New Mexico is on a bundle of “under” tears, including 4-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the highway, 12-3-1 in conference play and 9-3 on Saturday. BYU, meanwhile, is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall (all in the MWC) and 8-3 against winning teams. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in eight of the last 11 meetings, though the under has hit in the last two contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BYU
Maryland (20-7, 14-9 ATS) at Virginia Tech (21-6, 10-10-1 ATS)
Surging Maryland, seeking its fifth straight win, treks to Blacksburg to face the Hokies in a matchup of two of the ACC’s top teams.
The Terrapins have won four in a row and six of seven (5-2 ATS), all in conference play, with the only loss coming at first-place Duke. On Wednesday, they rallied to beat Clemson 88-79 as a five-point home favorite. Maryland sports one of the top shooting defenses in the nation, allowing just 37.6 percent from the floor (sixth), and they’ve been even better on the highway, holding opponents to just 36.1 percent in their own gyms.
Virginia Tech had notched wins in five straight games and eight of nine before an ill-fated two-game road trip. The Hokies lost to Duke 67-55 on Sunday, pushing as a 12-point ‘dog, then got rocked at Boston College 80-60 as a one-point pup Wednesday. For the season, Va-Tech is averaging 71.5 ppg and giving up 62.9, but on the home floor, it is outscoring opponents by more than 17 ppg (74.1-56.8).
Maryland is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, though it has only won one of those four contests, posting an 83-73 victory last year as a 3½-point home favorite. The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five matchups, and the pup is on a 4-1-1 ATS uptick.
The Terrapins are on several positive pointspread streaks, including 11-3 overall, 6-2 on the road, 19-7 inside the ACC, 10-3 against winning teams, and 7-3 after a SU win. The Hokies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six starts after a non-cover, but they’ve gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four overall, all in the ACC.
The under for Maryland is on runs of 4-0-1 on the road and 5-2 after a spread-cover, and the under for VaTech is on rolls of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 4-1 at home and 5-2 in the ACC. However, the Terps are on “over” surges of 13-6-1 overall, 10-3-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 43-20-1 on Saturday, and the Hokies sport “over” streaks of 4-1 after a SU loss, 5-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last seven matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND
(1) Kansas (27-1, 10-14-1 ATS) at Oklahoma State (19-8, 12-8-1 ATS)
The top-ranked Jayhawks take their 13-game winning streak to Stillwater, Okla., for a Big 12 clash with Oklahoma State at Gallagher-Iba Arena.
Kansas suffered its only loss of the season on Jan. 10 at Tennessee (76-68 as a five-point road chalk), then jumped into Big 12 play and ripped off 13 straight wins, including nine by double digits. The latest was Monday’s 81-68 rout of Oklahoma, the ninth time in 13 league contests that Bill Self’s squad topped 80 points. However, Kansas came up well short as a 20½-point home favorite, and that’s the one negative with the Jayhawks, who have failed to cover in four straight overall and seven of their last eight (0-3 ATS in their last three Big 12 road games).
The Cowboys’ three-game SU and ATS winning streak came to a halt Wednesday when they lost 69-59 at Texas, falling just short as a nine-point road underdog. On the bright side, Oklahoma State is 13-1 at Gallagher-Iba Arena (6-1-1 ATS in lined games), including 5-1 SU and ATS in conference home games. Going back to last year, Oklahoma State has won 18 of 19 at home (10-2-1 ATS in lined action), going 10-1 (9-2 ATS) when hosting league rivals.
The SU winner has covered the spread in all 13 of OSU’s Big 12 contests.
The Jayhawks are 10-1 in road/neutral-site games (4-6-1 ATS), averaging 76.1 ppg (46.2 percent shooting) and holding opponents to 65.4 ppg (37.9 percent). Oklahoma State outscores visitors by 15 ppg (79.6-64.6) while posting a 48 percent to 40.5 percent shooting advantage.
Kansas has won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), but in the most recent contest in Stillwater two seasons ago, Oklahoma State scored a 61-60 upset victory as a whopping 11-point home underdog. In fact, the host has won three in a row (3-0 ATS) and six of the last eight (5-3 ATS) in this series.
The Jayhawks are in pointspread ruts of 0-4 overall, 3-7-1 on the road, 0-4 on Saturday, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-5 versus winning teams. Conversely, Oklahoma State is on ATS upticks of 23-9-1 overall, 34-16-3 at home (10-2-1 last 13), 16-7 in Big 12 play, 20-9-1 against winning teams and 5-1-1 when playing at home against an opponent with a winning road record.
Kansas carries “under” trends of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 against winning teams and 35-17 after a SU victory. On the flip side, Oklahoma State has topped the total in four of five at home, four straight Saturday outings and four of five after either a SU or ATS loss. Finally, the under has hit in four of the last five Kansas-Oklahoma State battles overall, and the last five clashes in Stillwater have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
Missouri (21-7, 14-8 ATS) at (6) Kansas State (23-4, 15-6-1 ATS)
Kansas State will try to extend a six-game winning streak, avenge one of its conference losses and continue the home team’s dominance in this rivalry when the streaking Tigers pay a visit to Fred Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan.
Missouri has won three in a row and four of its last five, most recently blasting Colorado 92-63 as a 14½-point home favorite on Wednesday. With that spread-cover, the Tigers have cashed in four straight games overall, and they’ve also gotten the money in three straight road games (2-1 SU), all against Big 12 foes. Mizzou is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS in conference roadies, with two of those losses (at Oklahoma and at Baylor) being by a total of seven points.
The Wildcats are coming off consecutive road routs of Oklahoma (83-68) and Texas Tech (83-64), easily cashing as a 5½-point favorite in both games. Not only has Kansas State won six in a row and seven of eight – including five consecutive Big 12 road wins – but it is on a 8-3-1 ATS roll (all in conference). The ‘Cats are 13-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in Manhattan, but just 4-2 SU and ATS in conference home games (3-2 ATS as a home favorite).
The Tigers put up 72.8 ppg as a visitor but shoot just 39.6 percent from the floor, while surrendering 72.1 ppg (42.7 percent). Meanwhile, K-State is averaging 81 ppg (44.9 percent) at the Bramlage Coliseum while limiting visitors to 64.7 ppg (39.9 percent).
These teams opened the Big 12 season against each other on Jan. 9, and Missouri rallied for a 74-68 victory, getting a meaningless slam dunk at the buzzer to barely cover as a five-point home chalk. The host has won the last six meetings in this rivalry both SU and ATS and is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 12 series clashes.
Missouri has cashed in four straight overall, five straight on Saturday, eight straight following a victory of more than 20 points and 19 of 26 conference games. On the downside, despite cashing in four of six Big 12 road contests this year, the Tigers are just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 on the highway.
Kansas State is also on a slew of ATS hot streaks, including 14-4-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 6-2 in the Big 12, 10-4-1 after both a SU and ATS win and 39-18-2 on Saturday.
The Tigers are on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 5-2 after a SU win and 5-2 on Saturday, but they’ve topped the total in eight of nine against winning teams. The Wildcats are also on “over” surges of 7-1 against winning teams, 15-7 after a spread-cover and 8-3-1 on Saturday. Lastly, the over is 8-1 in the last nine battles between these schools, with the last four in Manhattan hurdling the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(7) Villanova (23-4, 17-9 ATS) at (4) Syracuse (26-2, 17-7 ATS)
The game of the day comes from the Carrier Dome in upstate New York, where the Orange host Villanova with first place on the line in the rugged Big East.
The Wildcats rebounded from their first two-game losing skid of the season – 84-75 home loss to UConn; 70-65 loss at Pitt – with Wednesday’s 74-49 destruction of South Florida. Villanova easily cashed as a 13-point home chalk, ending ATS slides of 0-3 and 1-5. Jay Wright’s club won 10 of its first 11 road games – including four straight Big East road wins and spread-covers – but it has since dropped two of its last three as a visitor (SU and ATS). The SU winner has covered the spread in each of ‘Nova’s last nine games on the highway.
Syracuse dropped a 66-60 decision to Louisville as a 7½-point home favorite two weeks ago, but then bounced back with a pair of impressive road wins over Georgetown (75-71 as a two-point ‘dog) and Providence (99-85 as an eight-point chalk). Somewhat surprisingly, both of Syracuse’s losses this season came at home (where the Orange are 15-2 SU and 7-6 ATS in lined action), while it is 11-0 on the road (10-1 ATS).
The Orange sit atop the 16-team Big East at 13-2 SU (10-5 ATS), one game ahead of Villanova (12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS).
The Wildcats swept the season series from Syracuse last year, winning 102-85 as a 6½-point home favorite and 89-86 at the Carrier Dome as a two-point pup. Villanova has won three in a row, five of six and seven of the last nine in this rivalry, going 6-3 ATS over this stretch. It is also 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to the Carrier Dome.
Also in this rivalry, the underdog has cashed in five of the last six, and the SU winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last five meetings and nine of the last 10.
These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the country, with the Wildcats ranking second in averaging 83.8 ppg and Syracuse sitting seventh at 81.2 ppg. The Orange also lead the nation in field-goal shooting at 52.2 percent, while ‘Nova sinks 46.6 percent of its shots. Syracuse holds a defensive edge, limiting opponents to 65.3 ppg (39 percent) compared with the Wildcats’ 72 ppg (40.4 percent).
In building an 11-3 road/neutral-site record, Villanova has put 82.2 ppg on 48.2 percent shooting, but the Wildcats have also given up 78.6 ppg (42 percent) away from home. By comparison, the Orange outscore visitors by 19 ppg (81.6-62.6) and outshoot them 53 percent to 38 percent.
In addition to its 2-5 ATS slump overall, Villanova has failed to cash in four straight games after a SU victory. However, the Wildcats have covered in six of their last eight road games and 11 of 15 after a spread-cover. Syracuse is on pointspread rolls of 26-9 overall, 19-8 at home, 17-6 in conference play, 21-8 versus winning teams, 21-9 after a SU victory and 21-8 when coming off a spread cover.
Also, Syracuse’s 17-7 ATS mark is tied for third-best in the nation, while the Wildcats’ 17-9 ATS record is tied for ninth.
Villanova has topped the total in 15 of 21 overall, five of six on the road and 13 of 17 after a SU win, and the over is 9-2 in Syracuse’s last 11 Saturday contests. However, the Orange are also on “under” runs of 9-3 overall (all in the Big East), 4-0 at home and 6-1 after a SU victory. Finally, these two topped the total in both meetings last year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Houston (29-28, 26-31 ATS) at Utah (37-21, 35-20-3 ATS)
The struggling Rockets head north to Salt Lake City, hoping to win at EnergySolutions Arena for the second time this year as they visit the Jazz.
Houston is coming off Friday’s 109-105 upset victory over San Antonio as a 3½-point home underdog. The Rockets snapped a three-game losing skid with the victory, but they’ve still dropped six of their last eight games, all SU and ATS. Going back further, they’re lost 10 of their last 15 contests and they’re 6-18 ATS in their last 24. On the bright side, Houston has managed to win three of its last five road outings both SU and ATS.
Utah rebounded from Monday’s 105-100 home loss to Atlanta (as a three-point chalk) with Wednesday’s 102-93 victory over Charlotte, barely covering as a 7½-point home favorite. Then the Jazz went to Sacramento last night and got stunned 103-99 as a seven-point road favorite. Utah has still won 19 of its last 24 games, going 17-4-3 ATS. During this stretch, the Jazz are 11-2 on their home floor (8-3-2 ATS). Also, last night’s result aside, Jerry Sloan’s squad has scored at least 100 points 18 times in this 24-game surge.
Houston pounded the Jazz 113-96 as an eight-point underdog back in the first week of the season, but Utah got revenge 11 days ago, rolling 104-95 in Houston as a three-point road chalk. Prior to this season, the home team had won seven straight series clashes (4-3 ATS), but the visitor has now covered in 11 of the past 16 meetings.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Rockets’ last 11 games and 15 of the last 16, and the winner is 15-1 ATS in their last 16 road outings (10-0 ATS last 10). Also, the winner is 18-1-3 ATS in Utah’s last 22, including 9-0 ATS in the last nine. Finally, the winner has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between these teams.
Houston has failed to cover in 18 of 24 overall, nine of 12 on the road, nine of 13 against Western Conference opponents, four straight versus the Northwest Division, five of six on Saturday and seven of eight when playing on consecutive nights.
On the opposite end of the pointspread perspective, the Jazz are on ATS surges of 33-16-3 overall (17-4-3 last 24), 16-6-2 at home, 13-3-2 in Western Conference contests, 36-15 when facing Southwest Division foes, 3-0-1 on Saturday and 5-2-1 when going on the second night of a back-to-back.
The underdog has cashed in 14 of Houston’s last 19 games, but the favorite is 10-5-1 ATS in Utah’s last 16.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for the Rockets on back-to-back nights and 4-1 for Utah at home. However, the under is on streaks of 14-6 for Houston on the highway, 4-1 for Houston in Western Conference games, 5-3 for the Jazz overall and 5-1 for the Jazz against Western Conference opponents. Also, the under has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati at West Virginia
Prediction: West Virginia
With West Virginia 16-2 SU versus sub .800 opposition this season, this is one country road where the Bearcats don’t belong. The visitors are also strangers to conference covers this season, as well as blue water, posting a dark and dusty 3-11-1 ATS mark versus Big East foes. Cincy’s win at home last season against Bob Huggins’ boys probably brought a teardrop to some Mountaineer eyes. However, West Virginia’s 24-4 ATS record when they win SU with revenge is almost heaven compared to the Bearcats’ 5-49 ATS number when they lose SU versus a foe with revenge – and should have the Hillbillies celebrating with a misty taste of moonshine this year. With the series host 5-1 ATS, we know where we belong on this last Saturday in February. Lay the points with WVU.
Tom Freese
Wis-Green Bay at Loyola Chicago
Prediction: Wis-Green Bay
Loyola-Chicago is 14-14 overall and they are 5-12 in Conference Play. Guard Terrance Hill scores 11.7 points a game while shooting 39% from behind the arc. Guard Geoff McCammon scores 11.1 points a game while shooting 42% from beyond the arc. Forward Walt Gibler scores 10.8 points a game. The Ramblers score 64.6 points a game and they shoot just 68% from the foul line. Loyola-Chicago is 7-16-1 ATS their last 24 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 Saturday games. Wisconsin Green Bay is 19-11 overall and 10-7 in Conference Play. Guard Rahmon Fletcher scores 16.4 points a game while shooting 38.5% from behind the arc. Guard Bryquis Perine scores 13.1 points a game. Guard Troy Cotton scores 11.4 points a game while shooting 40.7% from behind the arc. The Phoenix score 68.1 points a game and they shoot 73% from the foul line. The Phoenix are 5-1 ATS their last 6 games and they are 3-1-1 ATS their last 5 Horizon League Games. PLAY ON WISCONSIN GREEN BAY -
Matt Fargo
Cincinnati at West Virginia
Play on: West Virginia
This has all of a sudden turned into a very big game for West Virginia. The Mountaineers were sitting pretty at one point in the Big East Conference at 8-2 but they have dropped three of their last five games to move into fourth place in the conference and there is no guarantee that is where they will finish. Following this game against Cincinnati, West Virginia closes the season with games against Georgetown and Villanova, two teams that are both in the hunt for one of those coveted top four positions in the conference. They are coveted because the top four seeds receive two byes in the upcoming Big East Tournament and we all know how important byes are in these conference tournaments. The Mountaineers lost a tough revenge game at Pittsburgh which came after a home loss against Villanova but they did bounce back with two relatively easy wins against Providence and Seton Hall. West Virginia then played at Connecticut on Monday and caught the Huskies are the wrong time who are once again heating up at the right time. A loss here puts West Virginia either into a tie with Louisville or just a game ahead of Georgetown with a game remaining against the Hoyas and neither of those scenarios is ideal. Head coach Bob Huggins will be facing his former team for the third time since coming to West Virginia and he is 0-2 so far with a loss in each of the last two seasons. While revenge is no longer in the forefront, it is still a game that he wants to win. As for Cincinnati, it has been quite the up and down season. The Bearcats started the year strong with a 10-3 record including a 2-0 start in the Big East but a loss at home against Pittsburgh started a downward spiral that they have not been able to recover from. Cincinnati is 5-8 in its last 13 games and one of those wins was a non-conference cupcake over CS-Bakersfield. A win at Connecticut on February 13th was the possibility of a start of a big finish but losses against South Florida and Marquette has cooled things once again. The Bearcats got a break with DePaul at home on Wednesday but they close the season with three brutal games that include Villanova and Georgetown after this one. Cincinnati is tied for ninth place with three other teams so getting that eighth spot and one bye seems very unlikely at this point. The Bearcats are only 2-7 in true road games this season and they will be in a very tough spot facing a team that is extremely angry and knows exactly what is on the line. The extra two days off that the Mountaineers have for this matchup is very important as well as the physicality of this conference benefits teams that have had more time to rest. Cincinnati is just 5-14 ATS this season against teams with a winning record while West Virginia is 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS this season coming off a loss. It has also won 11 of 12 games when playing with three or more days of rest which just shows how important that time off can be.
Sam Martin
Wyoming at Utah
Prediction: Utah
If you want a perfect example of what a team that gives up on a season looks like, then look no further than Wyoming. The Cowboys have lost seven straight both straight up and at the betting window, with four of those losses coming by 22, 22, 28, and 31 points. They even lost by eight points as two-point choice at home against TCU! Utah isn?t the best team, but they are at home, which means Wyoming is on the road. And the Cowboys are 0-9 away from home this season, losing by 15 points per game. This one has blowout written all over it! 5* Play on Utah.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Houston @ Southern Methodist
PICK: Southern Methodist
Defense. Defense. Defense. We love taking good defensive teams vs. bad defensive teams. Especially if getting points or laying a very small number. Even better yet if they are at home. That's what we have here. Houston is a terrible defensive team and SMU is very solid.
The Mustangs have the second best scoring defense in Conference USA allowing opponents only 58.6 PPG. They allow their opponents to shoot only 39% in conference play. That mark also ranks them second in Conference USA, tied with Marshall, only behind UTEP who is by far the best team in the league. That's going to be a big problem for a Houston team that ranks second to last in the conference in offensive FG% at just 39%. This is a bad match up for a poor shooting Cougar team. The UH defense has allowed over 46% for the season and they rank 310th (out of 347) nationally in that category.
This is also a bad spot for UH. First of all its a road game where the Cougs are just 2-4 SU in Conference USA play. Their only road wins have come vs. East Carolina, who sits at 3-10 in conference play, and vs. Rice who is in last place in CUSA play at 1-12. Thus, their only two road wins have come against teams who have combined to go 4-22 SU in league games. Nothing too impressive for sure. Secondly, Houston is off a HUGE win at home over Memphis and a letdown is highly likely. UH had lost 11 straight in their series with the Tigers and they had this home game circled in red for quite some time. They actually dominated Memphis and cruised to an easy 92-75 win. That big win was just 8 days after losing to a poor Central Florida team (just a 5-8 conference record). This team is all over the board and we expect them to be a bit full of themselves and play down quite a few levels here.
SMU has come on strong to win 4 of their last 5 homes games. Their only loss during that stretch was to UTEP who sits squarely in first place. They have covered 9 of their last 11 overall as the oddsmakers have not yet caught up to their improvement. Houston isn't at full strength for this road tilt as key reserve guard Zamal Nixon will most likely be out with mono. Leading scorer Aubrey Coleman has been bothered by thigh bruise and top rebounder Maurice McNeill has a broken nose effecting his breathing on the court. Those things + the emotional letdown factor all will contribute to an SMU win and cover here.
BIG AL
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play Portland Trail Blazers -4
Portland has won two of its first three games on this five-game road trip, although the loss came last night, by four points, in Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog. Minnesota is mired in a big slump, as the Timberwolves have won just one of their previous nine games, including a blowout loss last night in Oklahoma City. Tonight, we'll take the road-favored Trail Blazers, as Portland falls into a 64-35 ATS system of mine. What we want to do is play on any .550 (or better) road favorite of less than eight points that failed to cover as a road underdog its last time out, if it is matched up against a .399 (or worse) opponent off back to back losses. Portland is a super 27-13 ATS as a road favorite, and Minny is 28-41 ATS at home its last 69. Take Portland.
Rob Vinciletti
LSU vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -8½
The Tigers are 21-3 vs teams who average 65 or less with several big covers. When they play losing teams they have won 19 of 22 and have cashed 6 of the last 7 Saturday games. Tonight they catch an LSU team that wont remind anyone of the days when Shaq played there. LSU is 1-12 in the conference this year with their lone win coming on Thursday night at home vs Arkansas. Look for them to regress back to normal tonight as they are 0-10 on the road losing by an average 18 points per game. When they have home loss revenge they are 0-4 and have failed 3 times vs the spread. They lost and failed to cover every time this year on the road in this range as a dog. Take Auburn tonight.
Tony George
Memphis -3
The 4th road game for Charlotte who is 1-7 ATS their last 8 and they are short handed with injuries and Memphis is in revenge mode after a road loss to the Bobcats. Short number here and Charlotte has lost all 3 road games and so far SU and ATS and a 4th straight road game is always a reason to go against that road team, Memphis gets the better of them tonight at home.
JIM FEIST
DETROIT PISTONS / GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
TAKE GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
The best weapon for Golden State is the three-pointer in their uptempo attack. Fortunately, they face a weak perimeter defense in Detroit, allowing over 36% shooting from long range 23rd in the NBA. Golden State is rested for this one, while the Pistons are playing their 4th game in 5 nights all on the road. Look for the rested home team to run right at the tired team that is 3,000 miles from home. Play the Warriors.
James Patrick Sports
Ball State vs. Toledo
The Rockets end a horrible campaign in their home court against a surging Ball State Cardinal team. There are a lot of key match-ups in the MAC on Saturday and we look for Toledo to catch the Red Birds sleepwalking as the home team has cashed the past (4) meetings in this series and we'll ride the Rockets here. Big Game James Patrick's selection in Saturday MAC action is Toledo Rockets.
King Creole
Ill.-Chicago +4.5 vs Wis.-Milwaukee
38-19-2 ATS in 2009/2010: All Conference underdogs playing off BB SU and ATS wins.... the last win as an UNDERDOG. 'Play on' team is ILLINOIS-CHICAGO.
24-9 ATS if playing off 2 or more SU Underdog wins in a row (ILLINOIS-CHICAGO).... and 17-4 ATS if an Underdog of 7 < points.
Great Lakes Sports
Oregon State at USC
Play: USC Trojans
The USC Trojans have a respectable 8-4 ATS record when playing at home vs the Oregon State Beavers since 1996, and the USC Trojans are a stellar 10-1 ATS when playing their last eleven games following a double-digit loss at home. The home team is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. We look for the USC Trojans to roll over the Oregon State Beavers in this key Pac 10 showdown to grab the home ATS Win&Cover tonight.
GREG SHAKER
Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan Under 145
This number is actually up from the scout opening of 144 and the number is not going anywhere right now. My CBB Math Model has it handicapped at 138 and strong enough to take a look at it. Northern ILL has a very strong pace rating of #25 in this country and the primary reason why we have such a large number. EMich tempo is midrange and both squads have less than average offensive efficiency. What draws me to this game is the fact that while the home team has a higher percentage of shooting over their last 5 played, their scoring numbers are down both offensively and defensively. Averaging just 128 ppg over the last 5, while averaging allowing almost 47% shooting. They have simply been pacing down recently and they have certainly controlled the pace here on this court, with just 125 ppg all year right here and UNDER hitting at 6-3. I am going to look further into this one but for now, a pretty strong lean in UNDER.
Oregon State/USC Over 106
An amazing opening line of 104.5 for this game as we have two Pac 10 crawlers on the court and the line has been driven upward. By who I don't know, but I would suspect both sharp and square betting. My Math Model has this one handicapped at 111.5 but it is not taking into account of the recent happenings with Trojan contests as they continue to play very good D. Combined these teams are 15-8 UNDER in the Away/Home Situation that they are in today but I will discount that a bit since there has been Oddsmaker re-adjustment for this total. In fact, the first contest this year had a closing line of 111 which is about where I have it handicapped. That game produced just 96 though and with USC limiting opponents to a measly 35% shooting here at this arena perhaps we will see that type of game again. However, for Value Orienting I have a small lean right now to OVER.
Syracuse -5.5
Let me just first say that I will be staying away from this Extraoridary High Profile Game but I thought I would give you my thoughts on the possible outcome. My Handicapping Model has a 10 point win by the Orangemen but I am not sure that I trust that due to the intangibles involved here in this contest. The Wildcats have had some letdowns this year but they have played most of Big Games well and I have had them a couple times this year including their Big Win over West Va. Syracuse however is treating this one like it is the game of the century and with their combined strong D and uncanny shooting ability I have to lean that they will find a way to win this game. Interestingly though they have been the much better road squad at 10-1 ATS while covering around the 50% mark here in the Dome. That suggests that they are a "Do what it takes to win" type squad and perhaps these points could hold up to be a winner. However, I will put a small lean on Syracuse -5.5 based on the short line here compared to what they have been laying, what is going to be a vocal and active crowd situation, and a strong desire to show the visitors that they are the better team.