Terron Chapman
Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Play: Kentucky -2.5
The Kentucky Wildcats made easy work of the Tennessee Volunteers the first time these two got together, with a 73-62 win Lexington. Saturday afternoon, the venue changes to the Thompson Boling Center in Knoxville, but ultimately, I think we’ll see a similar result.
Bruce Pearl’s team won’t be an easy out Saturday afternoon on their home floor. The Vols have 13 wins against just one loss this season on their home-court where they shoot just over 48% from the field while holding their opponents to just 37.5%. One of those wins is responsible for the No. 1 ranked Kansas Jayhawks lone loss this season, so the Vols should be taken serious at home. However, the Wildcats have won their last three against the Vols, including their last visit to Knoxville. The Wildcats can bring it on the defensive end as well, holding opponents to 37.6% shooting from the field away from Lexington.
If the Vols had a better outing against the Gators their last time out, they may have found themselves as a slight favorite for this rematch. They may have been looking past the Gators to this match-up with the Cats. Even still, odds makers appear to have gotten it right listing the Cats as the slight favorite in this one. The Wildcats are too talented and I don’t think they’ll fall victim to a letdown. Look for this one to be closer than the first meeting, but expect the Cats to find a way to win down the stretch. Play on the Kentucky Wildcats for 1 unit.
Joseph D'Amico
Wake Forest over North Carolina.
North Carolina is just horrible. I watched as they played FSU in a must-win situation at home and were shredded 77-67 on Wednesday. The Tar Heel's have lost 7 of their L8 both SU and ATS. They lost Forward Ed Davis 2 weeks ago. They will also most likely be without the Wear brothers. The once-proud NC squad is just 1-7 SU on the road and is being outscored by an average of 7 PPG when a visitor. They face a Wake Forest team led by Aminu Al-Farouq, Ishmael Smith, and CJ Harris, who are combining for 40.2 PPG. The Demon Deacons are 12-1 SU at home TY, covering their L4 in a row. The Tar Heel's are 3-13 ATS their L16 overall, 0-6 ATS their L6 vs teams with a winning percentage of over .600, and 0-6 ATS their L6 as a road 'dog. The Demon Deacon's are 5-1 ATS their L6 overall, 5-1 ATS their L6 vs. the ACC, and 4-1 ATS their L5 as a favorite. North Carolina's woes continue. Take Wake Forest
SPORTS WAGERS
BYU –8 over New Mexico
Let’s see if we have this right. Both these teams play in the Mountain West and they’re #1 and #2 in the conference. They virtually have identical records at 26-3 overall. They’re both also ranked nationally, as the Lobos come in ranked #12 while the Cougars come in ranked #13. These two also played a month ago in New Mexico and the Lobos won by four. As for strength of schedule, give a significant edge to New Mexico, as its out of conference schedule included ranked teams, California, Texas Tech and Texas A&M while the Cougars have not faced a ranked team all season long. In fact, one could not argue that the Lobos are much more battle tested. Why then are the Cougars so heavily favored? Reputation counts for something but not that much when talking about the Mountain West. This looks like a line designed to attract money on the Lobos and it’s for that reason the Cougars are a play. The Cougars are deeper, they play better defense and with 22,000+ screaming fans on hand and its 15-0 home record, look for the Cougars to make a statement. The line says so. Play: BYU –8 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
TEXAS A&M –1 over Texas
The Aggies have lost one game at home all year and that lone loss came at the hand of the #1 team in the country, Kansas. They lost by five points but could’ve won it too, as they allowed the Jayhawks just 59 points. The Aggies are just so tough to beat and you can triple that at home. They played four ranked teams in its out of conference schedule, including three in a row in four days in late November. They also played another ranked team, Washington in December and went 2-2 in those four games. They beat Clemson and nearly beat West Virginia. The Aggies went into Texas on Jan 16 and lost by five. Now the venue switches and the Longhorns have been dropping in its ranking for weeks now. This is a very beatable team and even in its last game against Oklahoma St., they won by 10 but that score is flattering to the Longhorns, as OSU hung around all game and the Longhorns could not shake them off. This is a team that can go cold for long stretches at a time and usually do. Furthermore, its free-throw shooting is a huge problem, especially when they’re in the 1 and 1 situation because more times than not they’ll miss that first one. The Longhorns have gone just 5-6 over its last 11 games and what we have here is a team on the rise, the Aggies, playing at home against a team on the decline and frankly, the Aggies should put this intruder away. Texas are imposters and will be exposed as such once again. Play: Texas A&M –1 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Stan Lisowski
ILLINOIS
Golden Gophers have to be a bit down here after their monster effort in their last game, a tough beat at home vs. Purdue. Here, they have lost 5 straight meetings, while the Illini are undefeated as a home favorite standing 9-0 SU, winning those games by a 12.5 point average.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors
The Pistons have covered two of the first three games on the current road trip, but this is a tough spot for them. Playing in the second night of back to backs against up tempo Golden State is no small chore and the Warriors have revenge for a nine-point road loss back in December. Note that Golden State is a perfect 10-0 ATS this season when they allow between 93 and 98 points in a game. Detroit averages about 93.
Play on: Golden State
LARRY NESS
Arizona @ Stanford
PICK: Stanford -3
Sean Miller must be longing for his days at Xavier right about now. Miller went a spectacular 120-47 (.719) at Xavier over the last five years. The last four he led the team to the NCAA tourney with the highlight being the 2008 team which lost to UCLA in the regional final, winning 30 games on the season. He took over at Arizona this year, trying to extend the school's 25-year streak of NCAA tournament appearances, the longest active streak and the second-longest of all time (Dean Smith led the Tar Heels to 27 NCAAs). However, despite playing in the weakest Pac 10 in decades, the Wildcats enter this game 13-14 (7-8), having lost three straight and FIVE of their last six. The guard duo of Wise (14.7-3.3-3.3) and Fogg (10.4-2.9-2.2) has been solid plus 6-8 freshman Williams (15.5-6.8) has certainly done his share. However, the team plays poor overall defense and has never really found a rhythm. Stanford won 20 games in Johnny Dawkins' first year at Palo Alto (first head coaching gig) last season but the loss of Goods (16.2) and PG Johnson (6.6-4.5 APG) in the backcourt plus the team's best inside player in Hill (13.6-5.9) has been too much to overcome. The 6-7 Fields (22.1-8.7) has been terrific and sophomore guard Green (17.1) has really stepped up (averaged just 6.4 as a freshman) but the team has little else. The 6-8 Owens (6.9-3.6 LY) was expected to be a big part of this year's team but he's missed the entire season and we've still never been given a reason. Neither team is much to look at this year (kind of sums up the entire Pac 10) but Stanford has enough to avenge an earlier loss at Tucson with "room to spare" in this one. Lay the modest points.
John Fisher
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga
Play: San Francisco +18.5
This was the only team the Zags lost too in their conference. The Dons have some athletes that can stay with any team. However, they beat themselves more often then not. They also tend to go on scoring droughts that can be scary. Add to this that the Zag players are pissed with the Dons celebration victory. I put this game as a 2 STAR. Zag players have commented that they want REVENGE and to embarrass the Dons. Could happen. 18.5 pts is a lot of points to be favored when other team matches up well. Zags win by DD's but 18.5??? Zags 79 Dons 65 John "The Hook" Fisher The Humble Producer
JR O'Donnell
Ball State vs. Toledo
Play: Ball State -5
Ball State will pound the Rockets tonight as laying points on the road is usually as bad prop here , but not tonight!! Winners of 9 out of the last 10 Jr O will back the Boys from Muncie Indiana Early tonight!! Looking inside the #'s Ball State is on a winning mission here after a few early season clunkers, Toledo has packed it in and will fold like a tent tonight!!! Losers by 20 last game at home to Western Mich and the home game before that 16 to East Michigan!!! Ball is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Jamie Tursini
North Carolina vs. Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest -7
The Tarheels have completely given up. They have no true point guard that can handle the pressure. They are prone to turnovers throughout. They didn't give FSU a game at home and have no shot here.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -9.5
With Trevor Ariza expected to miss and with Kyle Lowry out, the Rockets will be missing a pair of key contributors when they take on a Jazz team that will be very hungry after losing to the lowly Kings last night. The Rockets played last night as well, and beat the Spurs, but this is not a team that has fared well in back-to-backs. In fact, the Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games playing on zero day's rest. The Jazz haven't had nearly the same problems as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on zero days rest. The Jazz have also proven to be a strong bounce back team at 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. You also have to like the fact that they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll lay the points here tonight.
Jack Jones
Kentucky -2.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are showing excellent value on the road as a small favorite against Tennessee this afternoon. The Wildcats are 27-1 this season and any time you can find them at this price, it's a good idea to back them. Tennessee has had a great year considering the adversity they have faced, but they are just not on the same level as the Wildcats here. Kentucky has 3 players averaging more points than the Vols' leading scorer. The Vols have lost 3 of their last 5 games overall, including a 62-73 road loss at Kentucky. The Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Vols over the last 3 seasons.
Kentucky is 12-5 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Vols have not fared well when trying to bounce back from a bad loss like the one they suffered at Florida last time out, 62-75. The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee is 0-7 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season. Certainly the Vols will be wanting revenge, but they just don't have the talent to match-up with Kentucky as there are mismatches across the board in the Wildcats' favor. Take Kentucky.
Info Plays
3* on The Citadel +10.5
Reasons why The Citadel covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (WOFFORD) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less. This is a 47-15 ATS System hitting 75.8% over the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 4-0 this season alone.
2.) The Citadel played Wofford to a 2-point game in their first meeting, and we see them looking for revenge in this second meeting. The Citadel is 24-6 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog, so they have been getting the money at an 80% rate when in the role of the underdog over the last 2 years. Bet The Citadel on the road.
Black Widow
1* on Vanderbilt -1.5
At 21-6 this season, the Commodores are having a great year and should be a much heavier favorite today at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are only 14-14 this season and they know that their fate rests in the SEC Tournament, which will be their only chance to play in the postseason. Arkansas is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons. This team has kind of packed it in of late, and they don't really have much reason to show up Saturday either. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Arkansas does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Commodores in this one. Take Vanderbilt and lay the points.
EZWINNERS
Wake Forest -7
The Demon Deacons landed in the national rankings and then lost their next two games. Wake Forest has had a week off before this game against North Carolina and I expect them to regroup and blow out this struggling Tar Heels team. Wake Forest has a tendency to play to its level of competition and even though UNC is having a horrible year I expect the Deacs to put forth a huge effort. Wake Forest already has a road victory against North Carolina and I expect another convincing win this time around. North Carolina is on a 3-13 slide against the spread in their last sixteen games overall. Lay the points.
Bryan Leonard
North Carolina at Wake Forest
It's been an extremely long year for the Tar Heels who are accustomed to playing for the national title. They are just 14-14 on the season and 3-10 in conference play. North Carolina has dropped 10 of their last 12 games with the only wins coming against in-state rival NC State. After today they play their final home game of the season against Miami and then travel to Duke to end the regular season against their biggest rival. We simply can't see a team who has shown little character all year showing up on Saturday against a far superior Wake Forest squad.
Wake has won the last two meetings in this series including a convincing 82-69 win earlier this year in Chapel Hill. The Demon Deacons should have plenty of motivation after back to back road losses at Virginia Tech and NC State. The later was an embarrassing showing in which they scored a season low 54 points. Wake Forest is virtually unbeatable at home posting a 41-4 mark the past three seasons.
North Carolina owns just one road victory on the season and we simply can't see them getting in the win column here. Without anything to play for until the conference tournament don't expect a superior effort here from a team that isn't used to playing at this level.
PLAY WAKE FOREST