Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh (-4') at ST. JOHN'S
Friday night winner on the Charlotte Bobcats, now 4-1 my last 5 comp play releases.
Both Pittsburgh and St. John's are coming off of losses, but perhaps Pitt's is a little more stunning since they were blown out at Notre Dame earlier this week, while St. John's got nipped in overtime at home against Marquette.
I expect the Johnnies to be a little demoralized after letting that game get away, and I expect Pitt to take it to the Red Storm but good in this one.
St. John's is just 3-6-1 against the spread at home this season, while Pittsburgh is still on a 4-1 straight up, and against the spread run in Big East play their last 5, and they have also won and covered the last 4 in this series, including a 10-point home win as the 8 1/2-point choice at the end of January.
Lay the road wood, as Pittsburgh bounces-back strong from Wednesday's loss in South Bend.
4♦ PITTSBURGH
Vanderbilt (+1) at ARKANSAS
Vanderbilt dodged a bullet at home on Thursday, as they needed overtime to get by a pesky Georgia team. Some would say that today the Commodores look ripe for the picking on the road, and normally I would agree, but it appears the Hogs are running on fumes right now, as Arkansas comes in having lost their last pair, and 3 of their last 4 overall.
The Commodores did blow out the Razorbacks, 75-58 in the schools last meeting last March to stop a 5 game series slide, and at 21-6 for the season, the 'Dores are looking to up their stock come seeding time for the Big Dance next month.
Arkansas has dropped to 14-14 for the year, and while they are 12-6 straight up at home, it looks like Coach Pelphrey's team is working towards building on something for next season.
Vandy the call.
1♦ VANDERBILT
Derek Mancini
Minnesota (+2') at ILLINOIS
Nice hit on the Hornets outright over the Magic 100-93 last night! Looking at the college game, and specifically a Big Ten showdown with Illinois hosting Minnesota.
Taking the Illini in Champaign has traditionally been a solid play, but not this year, and not against a Minnesota team that's peaking at just the right time. Illinois is just 5-8 ATS at Assembly Hall this season, and its tough to ignore recent games like Indiana (terrible effort) or their blowout loss to Ohio State.
Illini may have the better overall record, but you don't win basketball games based on your record, you win them based on your play... And in case you haven't noticed, the Gophers are on an impressive tear (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS L3 games). Wins against Wisconsin, Indiana (blowout), and a near upset of Purdue are as good a resume as you can have going into this contest!
Minnesota road record sends gamblers running, but you have to take into account their improvement as the season has progressed. Gophers defensive play has never been better this year (63 ppg, 39% shooting), and based on the way the Ilini offense has struggled, I'm happy to take the surging road dog in this match up. Grab the points with Minnesota Saturday in Champaign.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Mississippi at ALABAMA (-1')
Looking at the college game Saturday, and the SEC specifically, as Alabama hosts Ole Miss.
Plenty of gamblers have already given up on this Crimson Tide team, but not Mancini! Ole Miss may have the better record, but when you take into account their recent play, this is a very dangerous match up for the Rebels.
Losses at Mississippi St, Vandy, and Florida (0-3 SUATS), have exposed the Rebels for what they are: an average team. And Alabama has just the formula to expose them once again, using their staunch defense to slow the game down and force the Rebels to play in the half court. This formula didn't work so well in Oxford, but if you saw the Ole Miss-Mississippi State game, you saw how different the Rebels offense looks on the road.
Before you go fading Alabama, remember they've played 4 of their L5 games on the highway, and for a team that's terrible on the road, that's a nightmare stretch. But now, safe back at home, the Tide should start to exhibit the same tenacity we saw in wins over Mississippi State, LSU, and Arkansas. Lay the points, as Alabama gets back on track Saturday.
3♦ ALABAMA
Michael Cannon
Villanova (+5') at SYRACUSE
Take the points with Villanova on the road over Syracuse.
Too many points here.
These teams are a lot closer than the point spread suggests, so I have no problem taking Villanova as the dog.
The Wildcats absolutely buried South Florida on Wednesday, winning 74-49 as a 13-point home chalk. That came on the heels of back-to-back losses at Pitt and at home to UConn. This team has the quickness and athleticism in the backcourt to break down the Syracuse 2-3 zone and create open looks.
The Orange have won two straight road games, but return home to face a determined Villanova team that is still in the hunt for the regular season Big East crowns.
I can’t help but think back a couple weeks ago to the last time Syracuse was at home against a determined opponent. The Orange lost to Louisville, 66-60 and Villanova is a much better team than the Cardinals.
The Wildcats have won and covered the last three in this series. ‘Nova is also on a 6-2 ATS run in its last eight road games.
Take the points with Villanova as this one goes down to the wire.
2♦ VILLANOVA
North Carolina at WAKE FOREST (-7)
Take Wake Forest minus the points at home over North Carolina.
The Tarheels are dead. They’ve been floundering for a while but they have officially thrown in the towel on the season.
I’ve never seen a Roy Williams coached team fold like this team has. Whether it’s the same mental errors every game, or just a complete misunderstanding of the offense, this team just can’t get it right.
I know injuries have played a major part in their free-fall, so I’m not going to beat them up too bad about it, but the fact remains we are getting solid point value going against them with a very capable Wake Forest team at home.
The Demon Deacons lost their last two on the road, but prior to that had won four straight and six of seven. Wake has covered seven of its last nine overall.
North Carolina hasn’t beaten or covered against anybody except NC State over its last 10, so I see no real danger laying the points against them today.
Take Wake Forest as the home chalk as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ WAKE FOREST
Bobby Maxwell
Villanova at SYRACUSE (-6)
I'm rolling with my FREE plays, currently 58-27-1 with my last 86 comp selections. Tonight I'm delivering on the Big East marquee game between Villanova and Syracuse.
Of course everybody knows about this one already, the Carrier Dome in Syracuse is sold out and will be the biggest crowd ever to see the Orange play.
So expect it to be loud and expect to see a Syracuse team that comes out focused and ready to win big. They clinch the Big East crown with a win in this one, something they haven’t won since 2003 when the Orange won their only National Title.
Since that ugly loss to Louisville two weeks ago, the Orange have gone to Georgetown and won a tough one and then went to Providence on Monday and crushed the Friars 99-85 with a second-half blitz that got them the cover as eight-point favorites. The play of Rick Jackson and Andy Rautins has been superb lately and all these guys crash the boards. Their defensive gameplan will be to limit the rebounding and assists of Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds and not let him get the other guys going.
The Wildcats have dropped two of their last three and two of their last three on the road, cashing in just 2 of seven overall.
Syracuse is on ATS runs of 26-9 overall, 17-6 in Big East play, 19-8 at home and 10-1 as a favorite of up to 6 ½ points. This is the Orange’s game tonight and they will deliver a big show for the capacity crowd. Lay the chalk and go with Syracuse.
5♦ SYRACUSE
Oregon (+6) at UCLA
I'm rolling with my FREE plays, currently 58-27-1 with my last 86 comp selections. Tonight I'll improve on it with a play on Oregon as the Ducks visit UCLA in Pac-10 play.
Oregon snapped its five-game losing streak on Thursday with a 54-44 win over USC, cashing as a 10 ½-point underdog.
Now they go down the freeway to take on UCLA in a Pac-10 game and I expect this team to keep it rolling, at least get within the number today. The Ducks held USC to 19-of-58 from the field on Thursday night and they already own a 71-66 win over UCLA this season. Back on Jan. 28, Oregon beat the Bruins by five, cashing as a four-point home chalk. They have cashed in three of four against the Bruins.
UCLA hasn’t been able to string together back-to-back good games lately, and after beating Oregon State on Thursday, expect them to look average at best today. Inconsistency is going to happen with an inexperienced team like the Bruins.
UCLA is on ATS slides of 2-8 on Saturdays, 2-9 after a spread-cover and 3-10-1 as a favorite of up to 6 ½-points. I’m loving the Ducks tonight, especially after that solid performance on Thursday at USC. Play Oregon.
3♦ OREGON
Chuck O'Brien
LSU at AUBURN (-8')
Take Auburn and lay the points against LSU in SEC hoops action on Saturday.
LSU finally got its first SEC win Wednesday, knocking off Arkansas 65-54, ending a 12-game losing skid that began when the conference season tipped off on Jan. 9. While LSU is to be commended for continuing to fight, especially after previously suffering two narrow home losses to Mississippi State (60-59) and Tennessee (59-54), that doesn’t change the fact that this team is awful.
LSU has scored less than 60 points in 10 of its 13 league games, and on the road this year, the team is averaging 57.6 points per game on 38 percent shooting. Compare that with Auburn, which scores 77.7 ppg on its home court (shooting nearly 46 percent). In its six visits to SEC rivals so far this year (all losses of course), LSU has been defeated by 9, 25, 16, 19, 14 and 9 points.
Obviously, at 13-15 overall and 4-9 in conference, Auburn is nothing special itself, but it has won three straight conference home games, the last two in convincing fashion (92-83 over Arkansas; 82-63 over Georgia). For the season, Auburn is 10-5 at home, and that includes a very respectable five-point home loss to Kentucky (LSU, meanwhile, lost to Kentucky by 26 points at home). Also, Auburn has been a moneymaking machine in SEC games the last two years (20-7-2 ATS last 29) and on Saturdays (18-6-3 ATS last 27), while LSU is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 overall and 13-38-2 ATS in its last 53 on Saturday.
Auburn beat LSU 84-80 in Baton Rouge as a 3½-point road underdog on Jan. 20, and last year when these teams met in Alabama, Auburn cruised 69-53 as a two-point favorite. Expect a similar result here, as LSU is ripe for a letdown after finally ending that 12-game losing streak.
3♦ AUBURN
Chris Jordan
Northeastern at GEORGE MASON (+2)
If there were ever a time for guard Cam long to shake his funk - this would be it. Going back six games, Long suffered through four dismal shooting nights, going 1-for-9, 1-for-8, 0-for-6 and 2-for-9.
Toss in the suspension of Mike Morrison and it's easy to see why this team has somewhat struggled in conference play.
So why I am taking the Patriots. Cause if anything, this team has grown together and learned how to win together. There's a freshman class - made up of Luke Hancock, Johnny Williams, Kevin Foster and Sherrod Wright - that combined for 53 points and 21 rebounds in a BracketBusters loss to College of Charleston.
There's also the Birdsong-factor, as Louis Birdsong will play his final home game tonight - Senior Night - in what, as it turns out, is an important game for the Patriots.
The conference championship is no longer part of the equation, so George Mason turns spoiler today in the season’s final game at home, as Northeastern entered the final week of the season tied with Old Dominion for the conference lead.
I'm betting the Patriots are looking for payback for their worst defeat, a 71-46 whipping at Northeastern.
Play the Patriots
2♦ GEORGE MASON
Mississippi State (E) at SOUTH CAROLINA
All I need to do is pick the winner of this game, really?
No problem, as the Bulldogs are in desperate need of wins if it wants to enahnce its resume for the Big Dance. This would be one way to avoid the proverbial bubble burst.
Every win matters for Mississippi State (20-8, 8-5 SEC), which is currently sitting 58th in the Ratings Percentage Index. Remember, only 65 teams make it to the Dance.
A win today shouldn't be an issue, as the Gamecocks (14-13, 5-8), have lost four in a row and five of six. And this is a team that is being asked to prepare in quick-turnaround fashion.
South Carolina got back from Kentucky well after midnight yesterday morning, and reportedly t"ook the day relatively easy in terms of a practice schedule."
The Dawgs have covered seven of the last 10 meetings, so I'm playing the road team in this one.
1♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE
Stephen Nover
North Carolina at WAKE FOREST (-7)
On the big Saturday card, I like Wake Forest to continue North Carolina's nightmarish season with a double-digit victory.
The Tar Heels own just one road victory. Their regular-season is shot, having gone a miserable 3-10 in the ACC. The Tar Heels are already thinking ACC Tournament having written off the regular season.
Wake Forest will be the more motivated team, especially playing at home on national television. Wake Forest has won 41 of 45 home games during the past three seasons.
The Demon Deacons are off back-to-back road losses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. They were held to an embarrassing 54 points in the loss to North Carolina State.
Wake Forest defeated North Carolina, 82-69, earlier this season at Chapel Hill. The Demon Deacons should win by at least that wide of a margin at home against a down and dispirited North Carolina bunch.
2♦ WAKE FOREST
UW Green Bay (-1) at LOYOLA
Look for Wisconsin-Green Bay to bounce against Loyola, a team it has defeated four of the past five times, including the last three.
The Phoenix had won four of their last five games until losing on the road to Illinois-Chicago on Thursday. That was one of the biggest upsets of the Horizon League season.
Look for the Phoenix to be settled in and better prepared for this road matchup against the Ramblers. They need this victory to have a shot at earning the No. 3 seed in the upcoming league tournament.
Green Bay had no problem beating Loyola at home, winning 90-69, back in December.
The Phoenix has shown good bounce back ability, covering five of the past six times following a defeat.
Loyola is 7-16-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record, which Green Bay easily possess at 19-11.
2♦ UW GREEN BAY
Jeff Benton
Got another free-play winner Friday as Valparaiso (6♦) got inside the number vs. Butler! I’m now on runs of 29-13, 19-7, 16-6, 10-3 and 6-2 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday’s freebie in college basketball, I’ll back Florida at Georgia in an SEC rivalry contest.
First off, I don’t see how Georgia recovers from that brutal loss at Vanderbilt on Thursday, when the Bulldogs blew a five point lead with 33 seconds to play and lost 96-94 in overtime. Now, 48 hours later, they return to the court to face a Florida squad that’s playing with a ton of confidence. The Gators, coming off Tuesday’s 75-62 pounding of Tennessee, have now won three in a row and they’re 9-2 in their last 11 SEC games since starting the conference season with consecutive defeats.
One of those nine victories was an 87-71 dismantling of Georgia as a nine-point home favorite a month ago. That makes Florida 12-1 in the last 13 meetings in this rivalry, cashing in seven of the last 10.
Georgia has posted three straight home wins, but again, none of those victories followed as brutal a loss as the Bulldogs suffered the other night. Besides, Florida has won two of its last three SEC road contests, including last Saturday’s impressive 64-61 win as a five-point underdog.
Bottom line: With that victory over Tennessee on Tuesday, Florida helped its Big Dance chances immensely. But the Gators know a slip-up here and they’re back on the bubble (and probably on the outside looking in), so we know we’re going to get a focused effort from Florida. Georgia, meanwhile, is 12-14 and going nowhere, and after losing like they did at Vandy, don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs tank this one badly.
7♦ FLORIDA
Scott Delaney
Tulane at UAB
Back in their friendly confines of Bartow Arena, I like the Blazers to pound Tulane today in this matinee affair.
UAB already earned a 58-49 victory over Tulane back on Jan. 9 in New Orleans, and coming in with a 10-3 Conference USA mark and looking to earn a first-round bye in the C-USA Men's Basketball Championship, not to mention enhance its Big Dance resume, I think the Blazers win this game going away.
Tulane, which is 8-19 overall and just 2-11 in conference play, has lost five straight on the wood, and is 1-4 ATS in those games.
Birmingham has won the past five meetings, and eight of the last nine, while it has covered four of the last five battles.
Lay the chalk with UAB, as it wins handedly.
1♦ UAB
Craig Davis
I'll be brief with this because I don't think there's much to say. South Carolina is good at home (11-3) and has already beaten Kentucky there this season. But as happy as I am about backing South Carolina because they are at home, I'm equally excited about going against Mississippi State on the road. Remember, I backed Miss. State last Saturday at LSU minus a small number and they burned me. They nearly lost to LSU... are you kidding me? LSU hasn't won a conference game all year and the Bulldogs almost became their first victim. Before that win (which was very ugly), Mississippi State had dropped four straight road games in conference and it was clear to me how poorly they play away from Starkville. Miss. State doesn't score well on the road and even their defense is a little suspect. Devan Downey is obviously the key here, and if he stays out of foul trouble there is no chance the Bulldogs win. I love the spread and think we get really solid value.
5♦ SOUTH CAROLINA
O.C. Dooley
New Mexico +8 at Brigham Young
Even though both teams atop the Mountain West Conference standings have identical records (26-3) and New Mexico has a higher current national ranking (#10) as opposed to Brigham Young (#13) it is the Cougars who have been cast as a prohibitive favorite due to the fact that they are almost unbeatable (73-2 tear) when playing in front of their own HOME fans. But the fact of the matter is that New Mexico has set a SCHOOL RECORD this season for most “road” triumphs (10). In addition the Lobos amazingly have shot better from “three point” territory (42%) on the road as opposed to in front of their own faithful. If New Mexico is able to keep this late afternoon affair competitive it is worth noting that they are UNDEFEATED this season (10-0) in “close” games decided by a margin of 6-or-less points. For those of you who may not be aware since they do not get any national ESPN telecasts, New Mexico is coached by the same Steve Alford who spent 8 years directing a then successful Iowa program and before that was a player for Bob Knight’s 1976 National Championship Hoosiers. To make a long story short Alford has done a tremendous job ever since arriving at New Mexico three years ago on the advice of his former head coach. One of the keys to this selection are the stunning IRONIES that this contest has led off by the fact that it has been 16 long years since New Mexico’s last outright conference championship which they can clinch today. Prior to an excellent 1994 campaign the Lobos previous conference title also just happed to be a 16-year wait as they pulled off the trick in 1978. The last time New Mexico officially clinched a conference regular season championship just happened to be AT Brigham Young in a game 16-years ago that was decided in OVERTIME. It was sixteen years ago (1994) when the Lobos snapped Brigham Young’s 20-game home winning streak. Entering today Brigham Young has won 21 in a row at the Marriot Center. For the entire season to date New Mexico has used the same starting 5 in their lineup which is amazing continuity. The last time New Mexico achieved this feat was sixteen years ago during that magical 1994 season. For those of you who get to watch this critical game on the Versus Network keep an eye on New Mexico senior Roman Martinez who is just the third player in Lobos history to reach 1,000 points, 500 rebounds and 150 successful “three pointers” in a single career. At stake in this late afternoon contest is the Mountain West Conference title, NCAA seeding, postseason Mountain West tournament seeding and overall national ranking which makes TAKING the generous points the way to go. In the very successful three-year reign of head coach Steve Alford, New Mexico has successfully covered the spread (57-33) a very impressive 63-PERCENT of the time
Brian Graves
Tennessee St. vs Eastern Illinois
Pick: EIU -8
Eastern Illinois is playing some solid ball right now having beaten Morehead St, EKU and Austin Peay all in the past couple of weeks and they are now 10-7 in a pretty good OVC conference. Tennessee St. has alos played well of late but their wins are against the bottom feeders of this conference and they won't be able to keep pace with the better defense that EIU throws out there. Take EIU to win easily at home 85-69!
Jimmy Thompson
Oregon St. vs USC
Pick: Over 105.5
Are you kidding with this number? We realize these are the 2 lowest scoring teams in the PAC 10 but even they can muster up 110 points. Their last meeting both teams shot under 40 % from the field and hit only 6 three point shots combined. Those numbers will increase today and this game will approach 120 if not more. One of the easiest money making games of the day!
Jimmy Moore
Houston @ Utah
Pick: Houston +10
The Jazz are in a tough scheduling spot here playing their 4th game in 6 nights and coming off of a back to back with the Friday game starting at 10:05 EST. Utah is tough at home but this is a ton of points to be laying to a Houston team that is basically as good on the road as they are at home. Be sure to grab my HUGE WINNER going in college basketball action.
Rocketman
Yale @ Harvard
Play: Yale +13.5
Yale is 17-8 SU overall vs Harvard since 1997. Yale is 4-1 ATS overall vs Harvard past 3 years. Yale is 2-0 SU and ATS at Harvard the past 3 years. Bulldogs are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Bulldogs are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or greater. Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Ivy League. Crimson are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Crimson are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Harvard. Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Yale tonight!