Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, February 5,2011

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Detroit at Milwaukee
The Bucks look to build on their 6-1-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a favorite from 5 to 10 1/2 points. Milwaukee is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-5 1/2)

Game 501-502: Dallas at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.515; Charlotte 116.821
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 4 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 3; 187
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Over

Game 503-504: Atlanta at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.763; Washington 115.423
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under

Game 505-506: Portland at Cleveland (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.311; Cleveland 107.220
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 11; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-6); Under

Game 507-508: LA Lakers at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 123.393; New Orleans 124.457
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 193
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers 4; 188
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+4); Over

Game 509-510: Memphis at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 120.145; Houston 120.295
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5; 207
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+5); Over

Game 511-512: Detroit at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 112.620; Milwaukee 121.538
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 9; 179
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-5 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Denver at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.454; Minnesota 113.958
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 6 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 223 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Oklahoma City at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 120.820; Utah 118.591
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 1 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+1 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: Chicago at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.519; Golden State 121.169
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 1; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+3 1/2); Over

NHL

Toronto at Buffalo
The Sabres look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is 2-10 in its last 12 games as a road underdog from +110 to +150. Buffalo is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-165)

Game 51-52: San Jose at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 13.038; Boston 12.179
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+110); Over

Game 53-54: NY Rangers at Montreal (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.065; Montreal 12.283
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-135); Under

Game 55-56: Anaheim at Colorado (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.462; Colorado 10.428
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+130); Under

Game 57-58: Dallas at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.726; Philadelphia 12.189
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over

Game 59-60: Toronto at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.293; Buffalo 12.372
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-165); Over

Game 61-62: Ottawa at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.681; NY Islanders 9.834
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+105); Under

Game 63-64: Edmonton at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.041; Columbus 11.799
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-180); Under

Game 65-66: Atlanta at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.036; Carolina 9.802
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); Over

Game 67-68: Detroit at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.735; Nashville 10.569
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-110); Over

Game 69-70: Minnesota at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.236; Phoenix 11.486
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-145); Under

Game 71-72: Los Angeles at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 13.014; Calgary 12.018
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+105); Over

Marc Lawrence

Marshall at Southern Miss
Prediction: Southern Miss

Conference-USA is up for grabs with no less than seven teams within one-game of the league lead. One of those teams still in contention is Southern Miss. Should Larry Eustachy’s Golden Eagles fall just short of the crown, they’ll need to look no further than their 30-point thrashing in Huntington earlier this season. That makes two straight wins for Marshall (both at home) over the Eagles but we’ll bet this road trip to Hattiesburg won’t be a charm for first-year head coach Tom Herrion and his Thundering Herd. The Eagles are 20-4 SU at home since the start of the 2009 season, including a perfect 9-0 this season. More importantly, they’re 3-0 ATS when avenging a same-season loss of 25 or more points. With Marshall in the middle of a revenge sandwich of their own (Houston/Uab), look for the Eagles to soar this evening and stay in the thick of the USA race. We recommend a 1-unit play on Southern Mississippi.

Tom Freese

Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

Golden St is 21-27 straight up this year. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games as home underdogs and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games. Golden St is 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games vs. NBA Central teams. The Warriors are 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 meetings with the Bulls. Chicago is 34-14 straight up this year. The Bulls are 24-9 ATS their last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Chicago is 4-0 ATS their last 4 games overall. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS vs. NBA Pacific teams.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on UConn Huskies -2.5

Off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, expect the Huskies to be out for blood against an inferior Seton Hall squad today. UConn has had no trouble with the Pirates. In fact, it is 17-1 against Seton Hall dating back to 1998, winning those contests by an average score of 74-61. The Huskies enter this contest having won 10 in a row over the Pirates, with all 10 victories coming by at least 8 points. UConn got out of the gate slow against both Louisville and Syracuse, but don't count on that happening again tonight. Consider that the Huskies are a perfect 7-0 ATS after being held to 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. UConn is winning by an average score of 77.1 to 67.9 in this situation. In addition, Seton Hall is a poor 3-12 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons, falling to these opponents by an average score of 74.7 to 67.1. The Pirates may hang around for a while, but UConn will be on top when the finals gun sounds. Lay the points.

Matt Fargo

Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M -5

Texas A&M is coming off two straight losses and it should be out for blood on Saturday after getting hammered by Texas for a second time this season. The Aggies followed up a 48-point effort against Nebraska with a 49-point effort against the Longhorns which prompted head coach Mark Turgeon to make a statement. “I apologize to Texas A&M fans and family,” Turgeon said. “I'm embarrassed the way we played. I gotta get my team back. We're not playing at the level we needed to play at.” The Aggies loss against Texas was their first home loss of the season and just the second loss in the last 32 games at Reed Arena. Going back further, the Aggies are 43-4 at home since the start of the 2008-09 season with a 16-4 mark in conference games with those four losses coming against to Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas St. Those first three teams were all ranked fifth in the nation or better so Texas A&M is riding an amazing 43-1 run at home against teams ranked outside the top five. Baylor comes into Saturday with losses in four of its last six games including the last game at Oklahoma where travel and postponements were a big issue for the Bears. Now they must hit the road again and this could be just what Texas A&M needs as the Bears are 1-3 in Big XII road action and this is the first time all season they have had to play back-to-back road games. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog while the Aggies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. Baylor is 0-7 ATS this season against teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more ppg so it obviously has not stepped up when needed. The Aggies meanwhile has been solid coming off big losses as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss while going 9-2 ATS over the last two seasons coming off any loss. Under Turgeon, Texas A&M is 14-5 ATS in its 19 games after scoring 60 or fewer points in its last game. 3* Texas A&M Aggies

Frank Jordan

Kentucky vs. Florida
Play: Kentucky -1.5

Kentucky is number 11 in the country with a 16-5 record. Despite having four of their five losses coming on the road they are 3-0 against ranked teams thus far this season. Florida is number 23 in the country with a 17-5 record and impressive 6-2 SEC record. Three of Florida 5 losses have come at home with the other two coming one on road one on a neutral court. In this great top 25 SEC battle look for the Wildcats to escape the jaws of the Gators with a four point win. Play Kentucky

Craig Trapp

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Play: South Carolina +12.5

Underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Plus SCAR just beat them less than month ago. Vandy is tough team at home but are only 1-2 ATS L3 times out. Look for this to be a close game early but Vandy will pull away but no way they cover this huge spread.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets +3.5

The Hornets qualify in a solid 100% system here tonight . What we want to do is play on home dogs of 4 or less with 2 or more days of rest if they scored 90 or more as a road dog in their last game and their opponent which is the Lakers in this case was a home favorite of 4 or less and shot 45% or less in their last game. These rested home dogs are 8-1 straight up and 9-0 ats. The Hornets have double revenge here and are a solid 10-2 ats at home when the the total is 185 to 190. When they are installed as a home dog from 3.5 to +6 they are 6-3 straight up and against the spread. The Lakers are a paltry 2-9 ats vs Southwest Division games and a terrible 0-5 ats off 3+ home games. Look for the Hornets to get the cover.

Tom Stryker

Air Force @ Utah
PICK: Utah -4

After ripping off three consecutive straight up wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and TCU, Utah slipped in its last two games against Colorado State and UNLV. The Utes understand the importance of this home revenge battle against Air Force. If Utah falls here, they'll be in serious trouble especially with a pair of road games at San Diego State and BYU on deck!

Technically speaking, this is a rewarding spot for the home team. In its own backyard priced as a single-digit favorite, Utah is an outstanding 64-33-1 ATS dating back to the 1990-91 season. Provided the Utes take the floor in this role fighting with same season single revenge, this team trend improves to a solid 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS! Finally, coming off back-to-back straight up losses and matched up against a foe that enters without momentum off a straight up loss, the Utes have cruised to a nifty 20-8 ATS mark including 15-3 ATS in this set facing a foe that sports a won/loss percentage of .400 or better.

Air Force already got the best of Utah once this season. Rest assured, that won't happen again. As a conference guest going into revenge, the Falcons are a dismal 8-16 SU and 6-17-1 ATS including a stunning 0-12-1 ATS in this role priced between +12 and -1! Also, as a single-digit road dog running with an opponent that enters off two or more straight up losses, the Flyboys have crash landed notching a weak 6-15 SU and 7-14 ATS record.

Quietly, the Utes have won 49 of their last 62 straight up in this series including 28 of 31 inside the Huntsman Center. At this price and with that type of history, head coach Jim Boylen's troops will get the job done. Take Utah.

Scott Spreitzer

Old Dominion @ George Mason
PICK: George Mason -5

Old Dominion is 18-5, but just 7-12-1 ATS, and just 1-4 ATS its last five road contests. The Monarchs have won their last four games against the bottom-feeders of the Colonial Athletic Association but this will be a tough test against George Mason, which wants to avenge a 69-65 loss at Old Dominion on Jan. 8. The Monarchs have lost the last three meetings on this court by an average of 19 points. Center Frank Hassell leads the Monarchs with 13.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game and guard Kent Bazemore averages 12.1 points. George Mason is 18-5, 16-5 ATS and has won and covered all eight games since the loss against Old Dominion. The Patriots shoot 48.3 percent, including 39.2 percent from beyond the arc and their opponent field goal percentage is 41.2 percent. Guard Cam Long is the leading scorer with 15.5 points per game, followed by forward Ryan Pearson with 14.3 points and a team-leading 6.0 rebounds. Forward Luke Hancock averages 12.0 points. I'm laying the points with red-hot George Mason as it gets another win and cover on Saturday.

Jack Jones

Cleveland Cavaliers +6

The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing excellent value once again Saturday when they host the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday. The Trail Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Trail Blazers are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Portland is just 9-16 SU & 9-13-3 ATS in road games this season. The Blazers are getting outscored by 4.2 PPG on the road this season. This is a Blazers team that should not be this heavily favored on the road against any team in the league. Bet Cleveland Saturday.

Chip Chirimbes

Memphis vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -8

In a game that might go a long way for either of these clubs when it comes down to the selection committee for the Big Dance at large berth. Gonzaga (15-8,#10-9-1) plays host to Memphis (16-6, #6-13) who has struggled against the points to date, especially on the road where they are only 2 of 8 against the points and 6-16 ATP overall. The Bulldogs are ranked 14th for offensive field goals where as the Tigers rank 61st. Take the home town (actually not being played on campus) advantage and lay GONZAGA!

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Bulls/Warriors UNDER 204

The Bulls are quickly emerging as one of the premier defensive teams in the league under the tutelage of defensive guru Tom Thibodeau. It is certainly worth noting that the Bulls are 20-6 UNDER in their last 26 games versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game. We are only seeing an average of 197.6 total points scored in these contests. With 2 full days to rest and prepare, we can expect a strong defensive effort from Chicago this evening. After all, the Bulls are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 road games when playing with 2 days rest. We are only seeing 191.4 total points scored in these contests. Bet the UNDER.

Ray Monohan

Butler vs. Cleveland State
Play: Butler +3½

NICE Horizon league matchup on Saturday and I like Butler in the underdog role even though they're sporting a not-so-special 3-6 record while on the road this season, 6-5 against conference opponents, and 8-4 against non-conference opponents. On Jan. 7, Butler defeated Cleveland State 79-56 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. On the road, the Bulldogs are averaging 66.6 scoring, and holding teams to 68.3 points scored on defense. Cleveland St. is a legitimate BIG PLAY team this year, they've won 6 in a row, 21 on the season and are 13-0 at home. What am I thinking you ask? Look at the Bulldogs stats/trends as underdogs this year. 7-1 ATS in their last 8, and 14-5 their last 19. You'll see why I'm leaning the way I am. They've covered the last 2 times they've been dogs this year. 1x vs. WSU, and another vs. Duke. 6 of their 9 losses have been by 6 or less points, they lost twice in OT and 1x by 2 points. They keep their matchups close folks. As far as stats go Butler holds the edge in PPG, FG%, FT%, Rebounds, TO's, and Bench points, its hard not to like the intangibles w/ this team. My sources tell me PG Ronald Nored (Gametime decision) will give it a GOOD Shot in the AM. I believe Butler have just been having a LONG hangover after last year's National championship game, and this is as good a game as any to break out of their funk. Take them to cover the 3.5 or 4.