Jim Feist
Pistons at Bucks
Pick: Bucks
The Pistons are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 vs. NBA Central and this is a tough situational handicapping spot, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights as well as the second of a back to back spot. Milwaukee is rested, and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Bucks are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference. Play the Bucks.
EZWINNERS
New Orleans Hornets +3.5
The Lakers continue to struggle against the good teams in the league and I will fade them once again as they travel to New Orleans to face the Hornets. New Orleans has lost three out of their last four games, but those losses all came on the road. The Lakers should not be laying points on the road against any team with a winning record in my opinion and the Hornets are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a home underdog. Look for the Hornets to turn it up on the defensive end of the court like they have done all season and pick up the win here at home. Take the points.
Brent Brooks
Texas A&M -5
Baylor is a shell of the team they put on the court last year. Not sure who they miss more - Carter or Udoh. They have length but lack shot blocking. They have athletes in the backcourt but lack ball handlers. This has left Dunn to play far too much pseudo PG - taking away from his off the ball skills.
The Aggies were embarrassed and should be ready to take that out on the next team they face - and it just so happens that team is the Bears. This one could reach double digits without much surprise. Lay the points.
Rice +4
With the exception of their home game versus SMU (in which the Mustangs were outstanding from beyond the arc) the Owls have held their home court fairly well against the better teams in Conference USA. They are also in a revenge spot here as the Miners ripped them to shreds earlier in the year.
Getting four points with Rice at home is a good spot here. Look for Arsalan Kazemi to get to the line with great frequency yet again on his way to another double-double. If Rice can limit the damage done by Culpepper, they should hang on in this one behind their home crowd.
Bradley +5.5
SIU just suspended two starters (Cleveland and Teague) and one key bench player (Long) for three games for undisclosed reasons. This will be the first game of the three and the advantage in this one is with the Braves.
After losing four in a row and six of seven, you might say SIU is due for a win but with these suspensions coupled with how ugly these losses were (particularly the last two) you have to wonder if this team is pretty much mailing it in for the season at this point.
Bradley had been on a losing streak themselves until a win in their last game over Creighton. The key for the Braves in this game will be Simms-Edwards and Dunson - can one of those key supporting scorers have a good game to pair with the consistency of Andrew Warren. If so, look for the Braves to hang with a depleted and dejected bunch of Salukis.
La.-Lafayette -4
Cover over the Cajuns road games and just look at their home conference performances so far the year - not bad at all. Conversely, UALR hasn't exactly been a road juggernaut. Factor in the Cajuns rebounding advantage over the Trojans and the recent strong play from JJ Thomas - and you have a team ready to win this game.
UALR has the better overall record by several games but that is mostly a hold over from non conference play. These two teams are only separated by one game in Sun Belt play. Here's betting that Mouzy doesn't go 8 for 10 from deep like he did against Denver a couple of nights ago and the Trojans struggle to score on the road. Cajuns in a blowout.
James Patrick Sports
Illinois vs. Northwestern
The Wildcats are coming off a (20) win season for the first time in the university's (106) year history. The Purple Cats just pushed #1 Ohio State to the brink before falling (58-57) on this court. Northwestern will also be spurred on by the fact that the Illini laid a (25) point ass-kicking on them at Champaign earlier in Big Ten action. Northwestern is (7-1) ATS off a previous home loss and Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in Big Ten action on Saturday is Northwestern Wildcats.
Michael Alexander
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -3.5
The Lakers are 2-0 this season against the New Orleans. The largest margin of victory was in this series was actually when they played in New Orleans and the Lakers won by 15 and dominated the boards with 20 more than the Hornets. The Hornets have Emeka Okafor is out, and probably Trevor Ariza, so they'll just be trying to survive this one.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago Bulls -3.5
Under coach Thibodeau, Chicago is an impressive 16-5 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game, defeating these teams by an average score of 101.5 to 93.6. Thibs has gotten the Bulls to commit at the defensive end. It's the reason they have emerged as one of the league's elite, and the reason they beat Golden State by 30 in the season's first meeting. Lay the points.
Info Plays
3* Cleveland +6
Reasons why Cleveland will cover:
1) Portland has been terrible on the road this season, and when they do when they rarely blow anyone out. The Cavaliers are sick of losing, and should know this is a game they can win.
2) Play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - after 8 or more consecutive losses, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, as its 62-30 since 1996.
3) Portland is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN –1½ over Illinois
1:00 PM EST. The Illini whacked the Wildcats by 25 points back on Jan 6th at Assembly Hall but that was at a time when Northwestern had played a stretch of very tough games including back-to-back against Purdue and Michigan St. Now they’ve had a full week off on preparation for this one and they’ll be much more prepared. What we have here is a ranked Illinois squad a pooch over an unranked team that they already beat by 25. They’ll be lots of interest in the ranked squad but we know better than to bite. Since that win over Northwestern, the Illini has dropped four of six and all three of its road games over that span. The Wildcats are dangerous. This is an outstanding offensive team that is coming off a one-point loss to #1 Ohio St. They’ve now dropped three in a row, thus making this one its most crucial game of the season. The Wildcats have played seven ranked teams and that doesn’t include an out-of-conference loss to the Johnny’s and they’ve lost them all. There is just no way this talented host is going to go winless against ranked opponents this season. With three left beginning here the Wildcats and their proficient 76 points-per-game average have no excuses left. Play: #538 Northwestern -1½ (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
SETON HALL +136 over Connecticut
7:00 PM EST. The Hall went into West Virginia on Wednesday and they couldn’t have played a worse game. They looked awful and played worse. The Pirates stood around all night and while they lost by just 12, they were down by 20 for most of the game and it appeared like playing basketball was the last thing on their minds. We’ll throw that game out the window because this is a solid team that is more than capable of beating what could turn out to be a not as good as advertised Huskies squad. After rolling through their non-conference schedule, reality has sunk in for the Huskies. They’ve lost two in a row and they’re just 5-4 in Big East play. They have one good win in league play over Villanova but its other wins have come against Rutgers, DePaul, South Florida (in OT) and Marquette. Seton Hall whacked the Orange last week by 22 in a similar spot to this one. We also love the fact that this game goes off at 7:00 PM after most of the Big East action has been played. In other words, on the eve of the Super Bowl, this one is going to attract a ton of betting action and the books have made the #7-ranked Huskies an appealing small favorite. You’ve been warned. Play: #642 Seton Hall +136 (Risking 2 units).
TEXAS A&M –4½ over Baylor
2:00 PMThe Aggies stock has taken a huge dip after two blowout losses to Texas in games they were supposed to compete in. They didn’t, losing by 21 in Texas and by 20 at home. Sandwiched between those losses was another loss at Nebraska and a home win over K-State. That’s three losses in four games and had they competed against Texas, as the line suggested they would, they would be about a –9-point choice here. The Aggies recent woes have created an underlay and we’re on it. Expect A&M to get back to business here. They play outstanding defense and they were 17-1 with at least four good wins since those back-to-back debacles. Baylor has some shooters but that’s all they have. Its defense is average at best, they don’t rebound well and their guard play doesn’t stick out either. The Bears keep losing on the road and they keep losing big. In a recent game at Kansas they lost by 20. At Iowa St. they lost by 15. Baylor’s most recent loss on the road was at Oklahoma by seven and surely they’re taking a big step up in class here when facing an undervalued Aggies club. The Bears are simply outclassed here by a country mile. Play: #550 Texas A&M –4½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
John Ryan
Kentucky at Florida
Play: Kentucky
5* graded play on Kentucky and Kentucky on the first half line. This is a fantastic Southeast Conference matchup that has major implications for the East Division. Although ranked higher in the polls Kentucky trails Florida in the division. Florida is ranked one week and not the next, but is on top the East Division. Kentucky has had troubles on the road this season and is the dominant reason they trail Florida in the conference standings.
Kentucky?s Tough Road Loss
The Wildcats have already endured three losses by two points and have three conference defeats. The last loss came Tuesday in a 71-69 heart breaker at Mississippi. The Rebels hit a 3-pointer with just 2.9 seconds remaining to secure the upset win. The biggest question for the Wildcats is whether they can again get back up off the canvas and perform well in a hostile SEC environment.
Kentucky will have to play at their best as Florida enters this game playing some of their best defense this season. Over the past five games they have allowed opponents a paltry 38.7% shooting and have averaged eight more rebounds.
Team Rankings
In look at the team rankings I have combined the SEC two divisions into one to better reflect where these two teams stand within the conference and nationally. Kentucky ranks second in conference and 23rd nationally in offensive scoring at 77.5 points per game. Like so many teams they play far better at home averaging 83.7 points per game while scoring 71.9 points per game on the road.
Florida ranks sixth in the SEC and 109th nationally in offensive scoring at 71.1 points per game. Similarly, they score better at home averaging 74.3 points per game.
Why Kentucky will win this game
One of the biggest factors in this game will be the fast start by Kentucky as they rank first in conference and 13th nationally in first half scoring offense at 38.5 points per game. By comparison, Florida ranks ninth in conference 112th nationally in first half scoring at 33.1 points per game. The news is even worse for the Gators in the second half ranking seventh in conference, but 213th nationally in second half scoring at just 35.2 points per game.
Florida may be playing great team defense, but Kentucky has been solid defensively all season. Florida ranks second in conference and 30th nationally in scoring defense allowing 61.7 points per game. Kentucky ranks third in conference and 41st nationally in scoring defense allowing 62.4 points per game.
As mentioned above, Florida has defended well allowing less than 40% shooting over a five game span.Mmost of that figure is attributed to allowing Arkansas just 29% shooting. Over the past three games Florida has gotten themselves into high paced action and are allowing 74 points per game over the last three games. Point is that they cannot allow the tempo of the game to become too fast or Kentucky will run them right off of the court in the first half.
Further supporting this play on Kentucky is the fact that they are a solid 13-4 ATS winning 8.6 units per one unit wager in road games after a close loss by three points or less since 1997. I strongly believe Kentucky demonstrate that resiliency tonight and play at a very high level of basketball that Florida simply cannot match. Take the Wildcats.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -½ +118 over Atlanta
The Thrashers are sinking faster than Hosni Mubarak. How bad is Atlanta right now? Losers of 9 of its last 11, (six of those by more than a goal) and one PP goal in its last eight games. The Thrashers have just 15 total goals over that same period. Their once comfortable playoff lead has dwindled down to a point. Even their meager fan base is booing them when they head off the ice but it’s more than that. Before Christmas the Thrashers were winning games carried on the back of Ondrej Pavelec. Constantly they hung him out to dry and he responded with ridiculous saves. But part of the reason he was making those ridiculous saves was his own doing. He often over plays the puck and often found himself way out of position. Sooner or later that reckless style will catch up to you. A 3.22 GAA in his last 18 games is more indicative of his game than the 1.52 GAA in his prior 17 starts. But forget the stats, the most disturbing thing about Atlanta is a true lack of team and no talent makes up for that. Twice Evander Kane was coldcocked into Queer Street and neither time did any teammate raise a finger in his defense. It was disturbing to witness this apathetic response from a hockey team. It was an eye opener and thus, it’s no mystery as to why they’re reeling. Since 12/28 the Canes have been winning games and they've been scoring a ton of goals. Their only nemesis over this time has been Boston. Throwing out the three loses they've had to the B’s and the Canes record is 10-5. They have scored 57 goals in those 15 games, a 3.8 average. Tonight they can overtake Atlanta for the final playoff position. It is the biggest game of the year for Carolina and you can expect a concerted effort at home with little resistance against a team they seldom lose to. Play: Carolina -½ +118 (Risking 2 units).
Edmonton +175 over COLUMBUS
Pretty sweet and unlikely win for the Jackets last night at the Joe. That was certainly a nice win but with inconsistent goaltending and with just four wins in their last 13 games the Jackets are not to be trusted as big chalk. The Oilers goaltending is also inconsistent but they’re not the one’s laying –190. Edmonton played in St. Louis last night and lost 5-3 but rallied from 4-1 down to make it 4-3 going to the third. The Oilers have seen the Jackets twice this season and have taken three out of a possible four points and there’s no reason they can’t have more success here. Edmonton played without Dustin Penner last night because of the flu and there’s a good chance he’ll play tonight. Regardless of whether he play or not, when we can take back a tag like this against the Jackets you can pencil us in and this one is no exception. Play: Edmonton +175 (Risking 2 units).
PHILADELPHIA -½ -102 over Dallas
The Stars are in a funk with four losses in its last five games with only win over that stretch coming against the last place Oilers. It gets worse. Not only has Dallas lost four of five but in those four defeats they allowed 24 goals against. That’s serious and with Kari Lehtonen struggling and a little shell-shocked and with an average road record, the Stars could be in for a very long night. In addition, Dallas is suddenly the walking wounded with injuries to many key contributors including sparkplug Jamie Benn. Aside from being without Benn, the Stars sent Adam Burish, Ray Sawada and Krys Barch back to Texas and already are missing Tom Wandell and Toby Petersen. All the Flyers do is win hockey games. They’ve won seen of nine and rarely lose at home. They’re loaded offensively and there’s little chance the fragile Stars will slow them down. Not that any more incentive is needed but just its worth mentioning that in Saturday home games the Flyers are 8-1. Play: Philadelphia -½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Los Angeles +104 over CALGARY
Kudos to the Flames and their six-game winning streak. Six in a row for this team is hard to believe and seven is unlikely because Calgary is about as average as they come. They’re not a physical team, they’re not a scoring team and they’re not great defensively either. They’ve been playing with some grit and have some nice wins during its current run but that could come crashing down at any moment. What we know for sure is that the Kings are absolutely playing with some urgency, as they continue to fight for a playoff spot. L.A. is 1-1 since the break but deserve to be 2-0, as they dominated both games and they appear to be extremely focused during this crucial stretch of games that will see them play 10 straight on the road. This is the third leg of said trip and with games on deck in Pittsburgh, Philly and Washington this one becomes even more crucial. Anytime we can take back a tag on the Kings over Calgary it’s probably a smart bet. Play: Los Angeles +104 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +143 over BUFFALO
There’s some absolute value on the Maple Leafs here against a Sabres squad that offers up very little as a big favorite. The Leafs are coming off one of its best games of the year, a 3-0 win over Carolina in a game they were very sharp in. Once again James Reimer was rock-solid between the pipes. This kid is no fluke, he’s the real deal and when he’s in there the Leafs look better and play better. Now Toronto will make the short trip to Buffalo where they’ll get plenty of fan support. Buffalo played in Pittsburgh last night and scored two goals inside eight minutes but didn’t get another sniff the rest of the way in a 3-2 loss. Buffalo has been wildly inconsistent this season and even Ryan Miller has been hit and miss. Anyway, if the Leafs are to make any push for the playoffs it’s going to happen now. They’re 2-0 off the break so they carry some momentum into this one and they have a bunch of games in hand over the teams they have to catch. The Leafs are just four points back of the Sabres with four games in hand and if they’re going to do anything it has to continue here. Play: Toronto +143 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
UFC 126
Anderson Silva (inside distance) -135 over Belfort
The money has been steadily rolling in on Vitor Belfort and that suits us just fine. Unless his backers know something earth shattering that we are not aware of, they should probably have their heads examined. Sure he is coming off a win against Rich Franklin but there are two reasons you can throw that fight off the page. Firstly, that fight was a Catchweight Bout at Belfort's request and more importantly it took place over a year and half ago. Does it really make sense to expect him to take out arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC off that long a layoff? Not to mention the fact that the four fighters he beat prior to that fight (Lindland, Martin, Zikic and Serati) will not sniff a match with Anderson Silva in this lifetime. All Silva has to do is survive the first 90 seconds of this fight and Belfort's lethal left fist and the victory will be his. Chael Sonnen might have pushed "The Spider" to his brink last time out but he had a more favorable match-up and some "juice" in his gas tank. Belfort is a heavy hitter that will want to keep this fight standing and that plays right into Silva's superior counter striking. Expect Belfort to go for broke early, gas out and give way to the better conditioned fighter. For that reason it doesn't make sense to lay nearly 3-1 on Silva outright but rather take the value and take him inside the distance. Anderson Silva will retain his title tonight and when GSP wins at UFC 129 it will set up the "Super Fight" the world is waiting for. Play: Silva -135 (inside the distance) (Risking 2.6 units to win 2).
Jon Jones (by TKO/KO) -126 over Ryan Bader
Some of the "sharps" in the industry have fallen in love with Ryan Bader in this spot. Much like the aforementioned fight I think they should all see a psychiatrist. They should watch some replays of both fighters' past bouts and if they have already done that then they should also go and get their eyes checked. It is scary that Jonny "Bones" Jones enters this fight with all kinds of hype behind him and he remains underrated. He could probably fight for the Light-Heavyweight title tomorrow but it is clear that the powers want to prolong his meteoric rise. Jones is the most dynamic fighter the sport has ever seen and can literally attack from any angle at any time. His elbows are like concrete blocks and if he lands them while mounted it is lights out. Ryan Bader has made his own waves in the UFC, winning all five of his fights and sporting a professional record of 12-0. Take a closer look though and you will find that his five most recent victories came against fighters who are a combined 11-17 in the UFC. His last outing was the only time he faced a fighter with any momentum and that fight could have been scored much closer than the final scorecards indicated. When Nogueira started moving forward and throwing his fists he had Bader backing up. That night he only had a one inch reach advantage on Bader, while Jones will have a 10½ inch edge tonight. Jones is versatile and it won't matter where Bader tries to take this fight. Jones might be 11-1 in his career but if you have watched his fights you know he has never been bested. His opponents thus far sport an impressive record of 34-20 in the UFC. He will win this fight in emphatic fashion and possibly derail Bader's career. Once again, instead of laying 3-1 with Jones outright it makes more sense to comfortably take nearly even money on him finishing the bout by TKO/KO. His last three victories came in the first round so expect to cash this play early. Play: Jones –109 (by TKO/KO) (Risking 2.52 units to win 2).
Carlos Eduardo Rocha +240 over Jake Ellenberger
The name of the game here is value. If Ellenberger is the better fighter it is only by a slim margin and nothing warrants him being a 2-1 favorite. He’s riding a two fight win streak since a UFC debut losing effort but it should be noted that his last win came by doctor stoppage against John "Doomsday" Howard. He sports a professional record of 23-5 and is no doubt a talented fighter but Carlos Eduardo Rocha is certainly no slouch. Rocha is a perfect 9-0 in his MMA career and his UFC debut was ultra impressive when he submitted Kris McCray in the first round with a kneebar. He has finished all nine of his fights inside the distance with eight of them coming via submission and only one of them getting past the first round. He is obviously taking a big step up the ladder here but there is nothing to suggest that he will not be able to handle it. Ellenberger likes to finish his fights with his fists but if Rocha can weather the storm and take it the ground he will likely get to do what he does best. Carols Eduardo Rocha is the lesser-known quantity but that's generally where you find value and at over 2-1 it is impossible to pass up. Play: Rocha +240 (Risking 2 units).
The Rest of the Card (No Bets)
Rich Franklin -150 over Forrest Griffin
Franklin is the better fighter with more experience and should grind out a decision.
Miguel Torres -350 over Antonio Banuelos
Torres is a submission master and is primed for a big effort tonight.
Donald Cerrone -270 over Paul Kelly
"Cowboy" should make a splash in his UFC debut and will likely be more than Kelly can handle.
Chad Mendes -330 over Michihiro Omigawa
Mendes has never been beaten and that shouldn't change tonight.
Norifumi Yamamoto -110 over Demetrious Johnson
Yamamoto is making his UFC debut but has been battle-tested since 2001 in Japan.
Gabe Ruediger +170 over Paul Taylor
Taylor has lost five of his last seven and Ruediger sports all the value.
Ricardo Romero -110 over Kyle Kingsbury
Romero looked good in his debut and the only blemish on his record is a DQ.
Mike Pierce -250 over Kenny Robertson
Pierce is 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming against Jon Fitch.
Tony George
Kansas -6 over Nebraska
Huskers a good team but a paper tiger in this one. Although Nebraska ranks fourth in defense nationally they rank as one of the poorest offensive teams as well. Yes that does balance out somewhat but KU with a lone loss to Texas is a stout opponent who beat NU by 3 about 4 weeks ago and have some steam headed in here. NU gets a reality check and I expect KU to dominate the boards here and get some cheap buckets and show some separation in class as well. That time of year where we separate the men from the boys, this one will be a clear example.
JR O'Donnell
Bowling Green -3.5
We are backing the 11-11 & 6-2 in MAC the Bowling Green Falcons as this nasty zone D gets our call Saturday as we have been red hot on the members plays ...This is a HUGE REVENGER for our crew and the Falcons have won six straight home games and are tied for the lead in the Mid-American Conference at 6-2. Since starting the year 2-9, Bowling Green has won nine of 11 to get to .500. These Falcons are light's out @ the Anderson Arena & The Falcons have held three consecutive opponents to 40 percent shooting or less.
BG Coach Lou Orr has a real gem with junior forward Scott Thomas and he can lead this crew to a W & he bangs the boards. The 11-9 and 4-3 MAC Western Michigan crew will have major major trouble with the "Falcons Zone" #'s are real strong here for the Falcons @ 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. WMU checks in @ 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall .
Telly
7 Plays NCAA
George Mason -4.5
UTEP -3
Kent St. -11.5
Memphis +9
Colorado ST. -4.5
Idaho -4.5
Delaware +3.5
TEDDY COVERS
Atlanta @ Washington
PICK: Washington +3
We all know that the Atlanta Hawks are better than the Washington Wizards, whether Atlanta is at home or on the road. But beating the NBA at this point of the season is more about spots and matchups than it is about talent. In this instance, both the spot and the matchups work strongly in Washington’s favor.
The Wizards have lost seven in a row and nine of their last ten. They got swept on a tough Western Conference road trip last week, and returned home to get annihilated by a hungry Orlando team last night in a tough ‘first game’ back spot, the same type of spot that hurt the Boston Celtics last night.
But for as miserable as Washington has been on the road all year, they have a winning record at home. We’ve seen Washington beat playoff contenders Boston, Utah, Charlotte, Memphis, Portland, Houston and Philly on this floor. They’ve also cashed winning bets as home dogs in tight losses against the likes of Orlando and Miami. Plain and simple – Washington is not an easy team to beat by margin at the Verizon Center, despite their recent struggles overall.
Wizards forward Andray Blatche, following last night’s loss: “It’s very disappointing, we always play well at home, we always take care of homer. Not to get a win coming off a long road trip and losing, it puts a little more pain on to it. On the bright side, we have a game (Saturday) and we’re going to come out and be aggressive.”
Atlanta’s All Star center Al Horford took a nasty spill on a flagrant foul at the end of the game in their taxing one point win against the Clippers last night. Horford hurt his back, leaving him questionable for tonight’s contest, and leaving the Hawks frontcourt looking very thin against the solid Wizards big men.
The Hawks lost 100-59 in their first game without Horford the last time he got hurt. Even if Horford suits up, Atlanta’s consistent inability to cover these short pointspreads (3-12 ATS laying from -3 to -5.5 this year) makes them a legitimate bet against here. 2* Take Washington.