LARRY NESS
Connecticut @ Seton Hall
PICK: Connecticut -2.5
Kemba Walker (23.4-5.3-4.3) still leads the Big East in scoring but he’s NOT the dominant force he was at the beginning of this year for UConn. The sixth-ranked Huskies are hoping a meeting with Seton Hall will get Walker untracked (he’s shot only 30.7 percent over his last five games), as well as the entire team, as UConn has dropped two straight games. The Pirates have brought out the best in the Huskies in recent years, as UConn goes for its 11th straight win over Seton Hall. Walker is the veteran lead of a team that starts a sophomore, the 6-9 Oriakhi (10.6-8.8) plus three freshman, guards Lamb (10.1-4.7) and Napier (9.0-3.2 APG) plus the 6-8 Smith (7.1-5.8). Seton Hall hasn’t won vs UConn since March of 2001 and Kevin Willard, in his first season at Seton Hall, has suffered through a tough year. The team’s best scorer, Hazell (17.7 PPG), has missed 13 games and since returning has been up and down. A great example was Seton Hall’s last outing, a 56-44 loss at West Va where Hazell made 1-of-8 shots (0-6 on threes). He wasn’t alone, as the Pirates shot 29.5 percent as a team. Theodore (11.2-4.3) is a solid partner for Hazell in the backcourt plus the 6-6 Robinson (12.7-6.6) and 6-8 Pope (10.7-9.1) are quality forwards but the Pirates will be facing a UConn team holding opponents to a modest 65.0 PPG plus an extremely low 38.9 percent from the floor. UConn has won 10 straight over Seton Hall (8-2 ATS) and off back-to-back losses, will be very focused here. WRONG place at the WRONG time for Seton Hall.
BEN BURNS
Minnesota @ Phoenix
PICK: Under 5.5
Both these teams have been involved in some high-scoring games recently. However, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair here.
After giving up six goals last time out, a 6-0 loss vs. Vancouver, Phoenix coach Dave Tippett was quoted as saying: "...we have some things to straighten out." Tippet was referring to team's "defensive issues" and had his team place an emphasis on that area in practice.
Note that the Coyotes have seen the "under" go 4-1 this season, when playing with two day's rest in between games. During the past few seasons, the "under" is also 30-22-2 when the Coyotes were coming off a game in which they failed to score more than one goal.
The Wild are off a 4-3 victory over Colorado, a division "rival." However, their previous game finished with a score of 1-0. Looking back a little further shows that the Wild have now allowed one goal or less in four of their last seven games, allowing two or fewer in five of those. Also, note that the Wild have seen the "under" go a lucrative 39-18-6 the past few seasons, when coming off a divisional game.
True, two of this season's three meetings have finished above the number. However, both those high-scoring games were played at Minnesota. The lone game here in the desert stayed below the total, a 3-2 Phoenix victory. Looking back further and we find that seven of the last eight meetings between these teams, which were played here at Phoenix, produced five or fewer goals. Many of those had O/U lines of five. We're getting an extra half a goal to work with (5.5 instead of 5) here and I feel that provides us with solid value. Consider the Under.
Karl Garrett
Auburn (+16') at GEORGIA
Willing to grab the points with Auburn this Saturday afternoon in Athens, as the G-Man feels the line on this SEC contest is a little inflated.
Georgia is clearly "going places" under Mark Fox, but their nail-biter one-point win at Arkansas earlier this week means the Bulldogs could be a little spent when it comes to getting on top of this hefty impost.
Aurburn did fail to cover at home versus Tennessee their last time out, but had covered their previous 4 and 5 of their last 6 in the underdog role prior to the Vols game.
The Tigers have also won the last pair in this series straight up, and the road team is a positive 10-2 against the spread the last dozen series meetings.
Georgia gets their win, but this one is closer than expected.
G-Man on the Tigers plus the points.
3♦ AUBURN
Bobby Maxwell
Baylor at TEXAS A&M (-5)
For my comp selection, the Aggies have struggled offensively the last few games, but today they will find the going much easier against a Baylor team that has allowed 70 points per game over the last five. I’ll lay the relatively small chalk with Texas A&M and expect them to win this one with ease.
The Aggies have suffered back-to-back horrible losses at Nebraska and at home to Texas, getting blown out and only managing 48 points in one game and 49 in the other. But this is the same team that won 13 straight from late November to mid-January and we’ll see more of that team here today. During the winning streak, this team shot 45.3 percent and scored 72.2 points per game.
Baylor has lost three straight road games and four of six overall. They lost at Oklahoma on Wednesday 73-66 and came up short as 4 ½ point favorites. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games and didn’t fare well at Texas A&M last year.
The Aggies scored a 78-71 win as two-point favorites in this meeting last year and the Aggies have cashed in five straight against the Bears. Texas A&M is on ATS surges of 11-4-1 at home, 7-1-1 as a favorite, 27-16 after a straight-up loss and 7-2-1 as a home favorite of up to 6 ½ points. Baylor is on ATS slides of 0-6 as an underdog of up to 6 ½ points, 1-6 in Big 12 action, 1-5 on the road and 1-5 after a non-cover.
Lay the points and go with Texas A&M today as the Aggies bounce back in a big way.
2♦ TEXAS A&M
Chuck O'Brien
Indiana State at MISSOURI STATE (-10)
For Saturday’s second of two complimentary college basketball selections, take Missouri State as a home favorite against Indiana State.
I came close to moving Missouri State to a “premium” selection, and the only thing that stopped me was the Bears are in a bit of a funk, losing two in a row and three of their last five while also failing to cash in all five contests (all as a favorite). Still, Missouri State is 9-3 the Missouri Valley Conference, just a half-game behind Wichita State for first place.
Also, this looks like a classic “get healthy” matchup for Missouri State, as Indiana State comes to town on a four-game losing skid, dropping the last two in blowout fashion to Creighton (83-69 on the road) and Wichita State (70-54 at home). The Sycamores have also followed up a 12-3 spread-covering run with three straight ATS setbacks.
Indiana State is just 12-11 overall and 4-9 away from home this year (road and neutral-site games), while Missouri State is 17-6 overall and 11-1 at home (only misstep at home was last Saturday’s one-point loss to Northern Iowa). Taking a closer look at the home-road thing, you see that the Bears on their own floor average 74.5 points per game, shoot 50.8% overall and 40% from 3-land, while Indiana State’s corresponding road numbers are 63.3 ppg/40.4%/33%. Flip it over to defense, and Missouri State allows 59.2 ppg/43.8%/31% while the Sycamores give up 74.2 ppg/45.2%/34.1%.
This is also a double-revenge spot for the Bears, who have lost consecutive heartbreakers at Indiana State (75-72 in overtime last year; 70-69 on Jan. 19). But now Missouri State gets to host the Sycamores, and as noted above, there’s a clear home-road dichotomy working here.
Yes, Indiana State has pointspread success in its favor (5-0 ATS last five meetings with Missouri State and 27-12 ATS last 39 Missouri Valley Conference games), but the Bears need this one worse and they’ve got the revenge angle and home-road situation working in their favor.
3♦ MISSOURI STATE
Derek Mancini
Evansville at CREIGHTON (-8)
Lay it with Creighton, as they turn things around in a big way this afternoon. No question the Purple Aces have really progressed this season, but let's not get carried away, as they're still just 3-7 SU and 4-5-1 ATS away this season.
True, they've won 6 of their L7 games (5-2 ATS), but if anything that begs the question: if they're so "red-hot" then why are they getting 8 points, especially when Creighton comes into this game losers of 5 of their L7 games. In fact, the Blue Jays are off one of their worst losses of the season, at lowly Bradley, but if anything that's good news. Why? Because it means we'll see some value in this match up.
Remember guys, for as up and down as Creighton has been SU this season, they've won 7 of their L9 ATS. Granted 6 of those games were on the road, but before you go fading the Jays, consider their near upset wins a Missouri State and Northern Iowa. This is a good Creighton team, and coming off a hugely disappointing loss, I expect we'll see their best this afternoon.
Finally, we can't talk about this game without mentioning the Purple Aces huge upset win at Missouri State. For a young team that's unaccustomed to success, Evansville is in a prime spot for a letdown. Evansville played a near perfect game in that contest (shot 55%, only 6 turnovers, 7 players with 9 points or more), and for them to repeat that effort in the very next game, on the road, vs. a highly motivated Creighton team will be next to impossible. Purple Aces come crashing back down to Earth this afternoon. Lay it with Creighton over Evansville.
3♦ CREIGHTON
Stephen Nover
UNLV(+7') at BYU
This is a huge game for UNLV. It's not only a revenge spot for an embarrassing home loss to the Cougars a month ago, but they need the victory to have any chance of catching BYU and San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference.
Jimmer Fredette burned the Rebels for 39 points when BYU beat UNLV, 89-77, at Thomas & Mack Center in early January.
Rebels senior guard Tre'Von Willis started off guarding Fredette, the nation's leading scorer, and held him to six misses in his first seven shots. But then Willis, who was playing with a bad knee, had to leave. His replacements couldn't handle Fredette.
This time around, though, Willis is much healthier and determined to clamp down on Fredette.
BYU is the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation. The Rebels, though, are the stronger defensive club holding foes to 61.1 points a game.
UNLV is getting better production from its frontline. Big men Quintrell Thomas and Carlos Lopez are off big games and Brice Massamba is over his flu bug. The Rebels have the talent to limit BYU on the boards.
The Rebels have covered 11 of the past 15 times when playing on the road against a foe with a winning home record. UNLV also has covered during six of its last eight visits to Provo.
1♦ UNLV
Chris Jordan
Memphis at GONZAGA (-8')
Something about these non-conference tilts in February that always intrigue, mainly cause I can't figure out why in the heck these coaches put themselves through the heartache.
Other than the BracketBuster event, it really makes no sense to me this late i the season.
Memphis is not in a position to travel to Spokane to take on a Gonzaga team that desperately needs wins if it even thinks for a moment it can get an at-large bid into the dance next month.
A win today might open some eyes. A blowout could go even further.
This series could be coming to an end after this meeting, which happens to be the first one since the series began in 2005-06 that neither team comes into the game ranked.
The Tigers roll into this game having lost two in a row, while the Bulldogs have rebounded from three consecutive conference losses to win back-to-back games against San Diego and Portland.
Gonzaga won the game last season, at FedExForum, 66-58, snapping a four-game losing streak to the Tigers.
This is a big game in terms of the RPI rankings, as Memphis' is sitting at No. 51 while Gonzaga is sitting at No. 74.
I like the Bulldogs to score a much-needed win against a team like the Tigers.
2♦ GONZAGA
Bobby Maxwell
Kansas (-6') at NEBRASKA
For my comp selection, I guess their lone loss of the season really woke up the Jayhawks as Kansas has just destroyed its last two opponents and will do the same today in Nebraska in this Big 12 showdown.
Kansas went to Texas Tech and clubbed the Red Raiders 88-66 as 13-point favorites on Tuesday and this team hasn’t lost a conference road game this season. Kansas comes into this one averaging 82.7 points per game and shooting the ball at a 51.9 percent clip on the season. Defensively, they allow just 62.9 points per game and limit the opposition to 38.2 percent shooting.
Nebraska has lost four of its last six, including a road loss at Kansas State on Wednesday, falling 69-53 as 7 ½-point underdogs.
The Jayhawks have won 16 straight over Nebraska, including six in a row in Lincoln, Neb. Now, the Cornhuskers did play Kansas tough back on Jan. 15, losing 63-60 in Kansas, but it seems the Jayhawks have had less trouble on the road against this team. Last year they scored an 84-72 win in Lincoln and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four at Nebraska.
Kansas is on a 15-6 ATS run in their last 21 as a road favorite of up to 6 ½ points. I’ll go ahead and lay the points with the Jayhawks in this one as they come out and win by double digits today. Play Kansas.
4♦ KANSAS
Michael Cannon
Duquesne (-7') at ST. BONNIE
Take Duquesne as the road chalk over St. Bonnie.
The Dukes are playing great right now. They are 16-5 SU on the year (12-2-1 ATS) and all of their victories have come by double digits.
Duquesne has also proven to be reliable as a road chalk, going 5-0 ATS in that role this year.
St. Bonnie has struggled at home, going 2-7 ATS this year.
There’s talk that Duquesne could get an invite to the tournament this year and I believe they will.
Lay the points with Duquesne as they grab the road win and cover.
3♦ DUQUESNE
Scott Delaney
Pepperdine at SAN DIEGO (+1')
The Toreros must be tired of losing, cause they finally secured their first conference win of the season, while picking up their fifth overall win of the season.
San Diego has endured a long campaign, struggling to rebuild while get accustomed to playing a certain brand of basketball. So while it used to be a chore to play the upset-minded Toerors, this year it's been a breeze.
That includes a trip to Malibu, back on Jan. 6, when Pepperdine dismantled San Diego by 20.
But, in revenge, this time around is going to be different. You see how low the line is, as the Waves are laying just 1.5 in San Diego. They come in after losing to first-place St. Mary's, and because they played the Gaels so tough, I think we're going to see a bit of a letdown this time around.
Take the small home dog in this one, as the T's look for their second-straight win.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Derek Mancini
Dallas at CHARLOTTE (+3)
I'm keeping this play small based on the history between these two teams, but it's that same history (Mavericks 13-0 all-time against Bobcats), that has me questioning this line. Why would the oddsmakers set the Maverickss as such a small favorite in a series they've owned since its inception?
The only reasoning behind this line is they're expecting a letdown following the Mavs thriller against the Celtics last night. Not only will it be difficult for Dallas to maintain the same energy levels based on the emotional last second win, but we also have to factor in fatigue. Dallas is 5-4 ATS with no rest, a winning record, but nothing to write home about. True, Charlotte's record with no rest is worse, but at the very least they played at home last night.
Bottom line, there's no reason to believe the oddsmakers are "cutting you a deal" by installing the Mavs as small favorites here. Instead, you can infer they are expecting the Mavs to A: not take this game very seriously. And B. suffer a letdown after last night's big-time last second win over Boston. Long story short, underestime the Bobcats at your own risk here. Take Charlotte plus the points over Dallas Saturday.
1♦ CHARLOTTE
Stephen Nover
Memphis (+4) at HOUSTON
Memphis is becoming an almost automatic play when on the road.
Constantly undervalued by the oddsmaker, the small-market Grizzlies have covered 15 of their last 21 road matchups. Since the start of January, Memphis has pulled road upsets against the Lakers, Bucks and 76ers while losing by one point in overtime to New Orleans.
Memphis is extremely dangerous as a road 'dog. In that role, the Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS.
The Grizzlies match up well to Houston because they get a lot of rebounds and force many turnovers.
Houston's frontline has really suffered without Yao Ming and its guard play has been up-and-down. Aaron Brooks has yet to regain his effectiveness from last season following an injury.
Zach Randolph can really hurt Houston on the boards. Randolph is having another huge season earning Western Conference Player of the Month honors for January.
This is Houston's first game back from a rough four-game road trip where the Rockets took on the Mavericks, Spurs, Lakers and Jazz. After this matchup, the Rockets have to fly to Denver for a Monday game against the Nuggets.
The Rockets still aren't playing tough defense. If you discount holding the Clippers to 83 points, the Rockets are surrendering 112.4 points per contest during their last seven games.
2♦ MEMPHIS
Scott Delaney
Chicago (-3') at GOLDEN STATE
The Bulls are suddenly rolling, as they have the fourth-best record in the NBA, they've won six in a row and 11of 13 and get to play a team they've dominated lately.
Chicago, which comes in after routing the Clippers by 18 on Wednesday, has won six of its last eight meetings with the Warriors, limiting them to 91 or less points in four of those wins.
During its current win streak, Chicago has won by an average of 12.5 points, while it hasn't allowed more than 90 points over that stretch.
Thanks to their recent surge, the Bulls are in the Eastern Conference hunt, just behind Boston and Miami for the top spot.
The Warriors, meanwhile, are just 2-3 on their current eight-game homestand and are mired in ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 1-6 versus the Central Division and 1-6 when catching points at home.
Lay the chalk in this one.
3♦ CHICAGO
O.C. Dooley
Colorado +10
It is easy to see why Missouri has been asked to lay double-digits since they are on an amazing 37-2 “series” roll against Colorado who has lost 34 of the past 38 games on the road. But Colorado who has a dynamic backcourt led by Alec Burks (20 points, 6 rebounds per game) and also featuring senior guard Cory Higgins play at a frenetic pace that can keep up with Missouri who also likes to spread the floor. Colorado snapped a four-game skid with a 95-69 rout on Wednesday which was a confidence builder and the Buffaloes earlier this campaign finally broke through with an upset of Missouri on their own home floor. I am aware that Missouri is 13-0 in front of their HOME fans this season, but their overall record in Big 12 Conference league play (3-4) leaves a lot to be desired. Here is a dynamic “25-5” SYSTEM (automatic past five years in a game featuring a pair of “average” defenses that permit 67-to-74 points per contest) which plays ON double-digit underdogs like Colorado off a “margin” victory of at least 15 points