Great Lakes Sports
San Diego U. is a perfect 3-0 ATS when playing on two days rest while Santa Clara is only 2-5 ATS when playing in their last seven Saturday games. Santa Clara is also a terrible 2-6 ATS when playing in their last eight games vs a team with a winning percentage below .400, and they are a dismal 2-7 ATS when playing in their last nine games vs a team with a losing straight up record. We look for San Diego U. to grab the home ATS Win&Cover tonight.
SPORTS ADVISORS
(2) Villanova (20-1, 15-5 ATS) at (7) Georgetown (16-5, 9-8 ATS)
The red-hot Wildcats hit the highway for a big-time Big East battle against Georgetown at the Verizon Center.
Villanova opened the season with a nine-game win streak, stubbed its toe at in-city rival Temple, and has since reeled off 11 consecutive victories, going a stout 9-2 ATS in that stretch. On Tuesday, the Wildcats dropped Seton Hall 81-71, falling just short as a 10½-point home favorite. ‘Nova is averaging a whopping 85.0 ppg, second-best in the nation, scoring 81 or more nine times during its current 11-game run. The Wildcats surrender 70.5 ppg.
Georgetown sandwiched its win and cover against visiting Duke last Saturday between a pair of losses – on Jan. 25 at Syracuse and Wednesday’s shocking 72-64 home loss to South Florida as a 12½-point chalk. Georgetown is putting up 72.5 ppg for the season, shooting a searing 50.3 percent from the floor (third nationally), while allowing 63.2 ppg. At home, the Hoyas are even better, averaging 75.6 ppg and shooting 52.3 percent.
Villanova held off Georgetown 82-77 as a 4½-point home favorite three weeks ago, ending a 5-0 SU tear by the Hoyas in this rivalry (4-1 ATS). The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS on their last eight trips to D.C., and the SU winner is on a 9-1 ATS run in the last 10 meetings.
The Wildcats, who have the second-best ATS mark in the nation, are on pointspread rolls of 18-6 overall, 5-0 on the highway, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in the Big East. The Hoyas are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a non-cover and 4-ATS in their last five following a SU loss, but they are on ATS purges of 5-11 on their home floor, 7-21 in conference action and 4-9-1 on Saturday.
Villanova is on “over” streaks of 12-3 overall, 7-1 on the road, 11-3 after a SU win and 6-2 in the Big East, and Georgetown sports “over” stretches of 6-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-2 in the Big East, 5-0 after a SU loss and 4-0 after a non-cover. The over also hit in last month’s matchup between these two. However, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings overall and six of the last seven at Georgetown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
Mississippi State (16-6, 10-7 ATS) at Florida (16-6, 10-7 ATS)
The surging Gators pursue their sixth win in seven games when they play host to Mississippi State at the O’Connell Center in an SEC contest.
The Bulldogs have dropped three of their last four games (2-2 ATS), falling at Vanderbilt 75-72 Wednesday as a 5½-point pup, though they cashed for the second straight contest after an 0-4 ATS skid. For the year, Mississippi State has outscored opponents by about 12 ppg (73.4-61.7), but those numbers tighten considerably on the road (67.1-66.6) and over their last five games (66.0-64.8).
Florida nearly upset Tennessee last Sunday, coming up just short in a 61-60 road loss that halted a four-game win streak, though it covered as an 8½-point road pup. However, the Gators bounced right back Thursday with a one-point win of their own, edging Alabama 66-65 as a two-point road ‘dog. On the home court, Florida is averaging 73.8 ppg on 44.3 percent shooting, while giving up just 58.6 ppg on 39.6 percent shooting.
Mississippi State has cashed in four straight meetings (all as an underdog) and six of the last seven in this rivalry (4-3 SU), winning the last two outright. Two years ago, the Bulldogs notched a 68-59 road upset catching 3½ points, and last year, they won 80-71 at home as a one-point ‘dog.
The Gators are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home, but they are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 5-1 overall (all in SEC play), 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 after a spread-cover and 8-3 coming off a SU win. The Bulldogs are on ATS rolls of 10-4 on the road, 9-4 in the SEC, 11-3 after a spread-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss, 12-5 against winning teams and 35-17 on Saturday.
The under for Florida is on runs of 14-5 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 25-9-1 after a SU win and 10-3 in Gainesville. Likewise, the under for MSU is on streaks of 8-3-1 on the highway and 9-4-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
(19) Temple (19-4, 14-9 ATS) at Richmond (17-6, 11-8 ATS)
The Owls, winners of eight of their past nine starts, travel to Richmond’s Robins Center for an Atlantic 10 tilt.
Temple has bounced back nicely from its 74-64 loss at Charlotte as a 1½-point chalk Jan. 27, posting a pair of SU and ATS wins at home, including Wednesday’s 76-60 rout of Duquesne as a 12½-point chalk. Temple averages a modest 65.4 ppg, riding its rigid defense to success in allowing 57.0 ppg (sixth nationally) on just 38 percent shooting (10th), including holding foes to just 27.4 percent from three-point range (fifth).
Richmond has won five of its last six contests (3-3 ATS), including Wednesday’s 68-58 victory at St. Joe’s as a 4½-point favorite for its third consecutive SU and ATS win, following a four-game ATS skid. The Spiders are averaging 71.6 ppg on 45.1 percent shooting at home this year, while allowing just 57.5 ppg on 37.7 percent shooting.
Richmond has covered the last two meetings in this rivalry (1-1 SU), after a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Temple. The Spiders won 64-58 at home two years ago getting three points, then lost 74-65 on the road last season, but cashed as an 11½-point pup. The visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10.
The Owls have failed to cover in four of their last five roadies and six of their last eight Saturday outings, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 34-16-1 against winning teams and 37-18-1 against A-10 opponents. The Spiders, meanwhile, are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Saturday starts, but they are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 at home and 7-16 in Richmond against teams with a winning road record.
The under for Temple is on surges of 21-10-1 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-2-1 on Saturday, 9-3-1 on the road, 21-7-1 after a spread-cover and 13-6 in league play. Similarly, Richmond is on “under” sprees of 6-0 overall (all in the A-10), 5-0 at home, 4-0 after a SU win, 6-1 on Saturday and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Clemson (16-6, 10-9 ATS) at Virginia Tech (17-4, 8-7 ATS)
Virginia Tech aims to remain perfect at home when it squares off with the Tigers in an ACC meeting at Cassell Coliseum.
Clemson bounced back from a three-game SU and ATS skid in the perennially tough ACC, topping Maryland 62-53 as a 3½-point home favorite Sunday. For the season, the Tigers have outscored opponents by 12 ppg (74.8-62.7), and they average 72.4 ppg while giving up 64.9 on the highway. However, in their last five outings overall – all in conference – they’ve been outscored by about a bucket per game (64.8-63.0).
The Hokies dumped rapidly sliding North Carolina 74-70 Thursday night as a 3½-point home favorite for their fourth win in their last five games (2-2 ATS in lined contests) while also improving to 11-0 SU at home. In building that perfect record at Cassell Coliseum, Virginia Tech has outscored foes by a tick over 20 ppg (74.5-54.4) while outshooting visitors 45.6 percent to 35.8 percent.
Clemson has won four of the last five meetings in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), though Va-Tech earned an 80-77 road upset last year catching 10 points. The road team has cashed in the last seven clashes, and the ‘dog is on a 7-1 ATS run.
The Hokies sport positive ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 4-1 at home and 7-3 against winning teams. Conversely, the Tigers are on spread-covering skids of 1-4 overall (all in the ACC), 0-4 on the road, 2-8-1 on Saturday and 1-4 against winning teams.
Va-Tech is on “over” tears of 11-4 overall, 6-2 in Blacksburg, 5-0 against winning teams, 11-4 after a spread-cover and 19-7 after a SU win, and the over is 5-0-1 in Clemson’s last six against winning teams. In addition, in this rivalry, the over is on a 5-0-1 surge. However, the Tigers are on “under” runs of 7-2 overall, 6-2 in ACC action, 12-2 on Saturday and 4-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH
(17) Gonzaga (18-4, 10-8-1 ATS) at Memphis (16-6, 6-11 ATS)
Gonzaga steps away from the West Coast Conference with a lengthy road trip to the FedEx Forum to take on the Tigers out of Conference USA.
The Zags were dealt a stunning 81-77 overtime loss at San Francisco last Saturday as a hefty 12-point favorite, halting a nine-game winning streak. But they bounced back big time on Thursday with a 76-49 pounding of Portland giving nine points, ending a four-game ATS slide. The Bulldogs have averaged 78.9 ppg while allowing 70.0 ppg this season, and in their last five starts, they’ve upped that margin by nearly two points (80-69.4).
Memphis broke open a tie game with less than four minutes to play on Wednesday against Alabama-Birmingham, pulling away for an 85-75 victory as a 7½-point favorite to improve to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four starts. The spread-covering roll comes on the heels of a nine-game ATS drought. Over the past five games, the Tigers have averaged an even 80 ppg and given up 69.4 ppg, and on their home floor this season, they are outscoring foes by almost 21 ppg (80.6-59.7).
These two perennial NCAA Tournament participants have met each of the last four years, with Memphis going 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS). Last year, the Tigers rolled 68-50 on the road as a four-point pup, and two seasons ago, they posted an 81-73 home win, falling short as a hefty 13-point favorite.
The Bulldogs have dropped four of their last five ATS decisions and are in an 0-4 ATS rut following a SU win, but they remain on pointspread upticks of 5-0 against winning teams, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 3-1-1 outside the West Coast Conference and 5-2 against Conference USA foes. The Tigers are on an 18-8 ATS roll against winning teams, though they shoulder negative ATS streaks of 3-10 overall in lined action, 0-5 in non-conference action, 1-8 after a SU win and 1-6 on Saturday.
The over is on a bundle of runs for Gonzaga, including 23-7 overall, 14-4 on the highway, 21-6 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover 16-5 in non-conference play and 4-1 on Saturday. The over has also hit in five of Memphis’ last six starts overall and four of its last five following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(12) BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) at UNLV (18-4, 14-6 ATS)
Streaking Brigham Young makes the road trip to the Thomas & Mack Center for a Mountain West Conference clash with the Rebels.
The Cougars fell at New Mexico 76-72 as a 1½-point pup on Jan. 27, their only loss in their last 18 games. BYU has since bounced back by dropping Utah 82-69 last Saturday, coming up just short as a 13½-point home chalk, and routing Texas Christian 76-56 Tuesday, draining a three-pointer in the waning seconds to narrowly cover as a 19-point home favorite. BYU averages 82.7 ppg (seventh nationally) while allowing 63.0, and Dave Rose’s troops also rate in the top 10 in field-goal shooting (49.3 percent, 10th), three-point success (42 percent, third) and free-throw shooting (77.4 percent, first).
Since suffering an upset home loss to Utah in mid-January, UNLV has won four in a row (3-1 ATS), including Wednesday’s 78-50 rout of Wyoming as an 8½-point road favorite. Over their last five games, the Rebels have averaged 73.2 ppg while allowing 63.0 ppg, shooting a torrid 51.2 percent in that stretch and holding the opposition to just 39.9 percent.
UNLV has gone 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven clashes with BYU, losing 77-73 last month on the road, but covering as a 7½-point underdog. Last year in Vegas, the Rebels eked out a 75-74 win, with BYU cashing as a 1½-point pup. UNLV is 9-3 ATS in the last dozen meetings overall and 5-1 ATS in the last six at the Thomas & Mack.
The Cougars are on ATS rolls of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 on Saturday, 4-1 against winning teams, 13-5 coming off a spread-cover and 5-2 after a SU win. Likewise, the Rebels – rated 10th nationally ATS – are on spread-covering runs of 9-3 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-2 in conference play and 7-1 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
BYU is on handful of “under” streaks, including 6-1 overall (all in the MWC), 7-3 on the highway, 6-0 after a SU win, 4-0 after an ATS victory and 7-2 on Saturday. The over, though, has hit in the Cougars’ last four starts against winning teams, and UNLV is on “over” tears of 8-3 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 on Saturday. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 12 of the last 14 contests overall (4-0 last four) and seven of the last eight in Vegas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNLV and OVER
(20) Baylor (17-4, 11-3 ATS) at Texas A&M (16-6, 10-8 ATS)
Texas A&M hopes to build on this week’s upset victory at Missouri when it welcomes the 20th-ranked Bears to Reed Arena in College Station, Texas.
Baylor followed up last Saturday’s 80-77 overtime win over Texas as a nine-point underdog with Wednesday’s 84-63 rout of Iowa State, easily covering as an 11½-point home favorite. The Bears, who have scored at least 70 points in 13 consecutive games, are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in Big 12 contests, including 1-2 on the road (2-1 ATS). They’ve cashed in seven of nine road/neutral-site games, where they average 75 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting.
The Aggies stunned Missouri 77-74 as a 9½-point road underdog Wednesday, snapping the Tigers’ 32-game home winning streak. Texas A&M has won four of its last five games (all in conference), and it has followed up an 0-3 ATS slide with back-to-back spread-covers. The Aggies are 12-0 at home this season – outscoring visitors by 17 ppg (75-58) – but just 4-4 ATS in lined action. Going back to last season, A&M is on a 15-game home winning streak, going 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS when hosting conference foes.
These squads split their season series last year, with Texas A&M winning 84-73 as a 1½-point home underdog and the Bears prevailing 72-68, but coming up just short as a 5½-point home pup. The Aggies have cashed in each of the last three series clashes, and the underdog is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 contests (5-0 ATS in the last five). Finally, Baylor ended a 5-0 spread-covering run at Reed Arena with last year’s loss as a road favorite.
Baylor is riding pointspread streaks of 11-2 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 4-1 in Big 12 play, 7-2 after a SU victory, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 6-0 on Saturday and 10-2 against winning teams. The Aggies have cashed in four of their last five on Saturday, but are 2-7 ATS in their last nine when coming off an outright victory.
The high-scoring Bears are on “over” runs of 8-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-0 in Big 12 action, 6-0 after a SU victory and 5-1 on Saturday. Also, the last five battles between these rivals in College Station have topped the total. Conversely, the under is 5-1 in A&M’s last six at home and 4-1 in its last five on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
South Carolina (13-8, 8-10 ATS) at (14) Tennessee (17-4, 8-9-1 ATS)
Tennessee shoots for its sixth straight victory over the Gamecocks when these SEC rivals both put modest two-game winning streaks on the line at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville.
South Carolina ended a three-game losing streak on Jan. 23 in stunning fashion, handing top-ranked Kentucky its first loss of the season with a 68-62 triumph as a seven-point home underdog. The Gamecocks followed that up last Saturday by rallying for a 78-77 victory over Georgia, falling short as a seven-point home underdog. They’re 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in conference, but they lost their last two road games to SEC foes Ole Miss (66-57 as an 8½-point underdog) and Florida (58-56, cashing as a six-point pup).
After barely holding off Florida at home on Sunday 61-60, the Volunteers went to lowly LSU on Thursday and nearly blew a double-digit second half lead, surviving 59-54. However, they failed to cover as a 6½-point road chalk, so Tennessee is in a four-game spread-covering slump and is 1-5 ATS in its last six contests (all within the SEC). Bruce Pearl’s team is 11-1 at Thompson-Boling this season, averaging 83.3 ppg (48.9 percent shooting) and allowing 65.2 ppg (38 percent), yet it is just 4-5 ATS in lined home games.
Tennessee has won five in a row in this series (3-2 ATS). Last year, it held off the ‘Cocks 82-79 in Knoxville, falling way short as a nine-point favorite, then went to South Carolina six weeks later and cruised to an 86-70 win as a two-point road underdog. In this series, the pup is on ATS runs of 3-0, 6-2 and 9-3, with the Gamecocks covering in four of their last five trips to Knoxville.
South Carolina is 37-17-1 ATS in its last 55 road games, but it is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 on Saturday and 1-6 ATS in its last seven when coming off a victory. Meanwhile, in addition to its current four-game pointspread drought, Tennessee has failed to cover in four of its last five on Saturday and is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven after a non-cover.
The under is on a 5-1-1 roll in this rivalry. Additionally, South Carolina carries “under” trends of 18-7-1 overall, 5-1 on the highway, 7-2-1 in SEC play and 5-1-1 against winning teams, while the Vols sport low-scoring streaks of 17-7 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-2 in conference, 4-0 against winning teams and 17-5 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(5) Michigan State (19-4, 8-14 ATS) at Illinois (15-8, 8-14 ATS)
The Spartans try to rebound from their first conference loss of the season when they travel to Assembly Hall in Champaign for a Big Ten battle with surging Illinois.
Michigan State got off to a slow start at Wisconsin on Tuesday and never recovered, getting blown out 67-49 as a two-point road underdog. The defeat snapped the Spartans’ 10-game winning streak, the last nine of which came against Big Ten opponents in what was the best start to a conference season in school history. Adding injury to insult, star point guard Kalin Lucas had to be carried off the floor in the second half of Tuesday’s loss because of a badly sprained ankle, and he’s questionable for tonight’s contest.
Since covering the spread in its first four league games, Michigan State is 1-5 ATS, including consecutive non-covers on the road. Also, Tom Izzo’s troops are now 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS in road/neutral-site contests, but 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in Big Ten roadies.
The Illini have followed up a three-game losing skid with three straight victories, most recently pounding Iowa 57-49 as a 4½-point road underdog on Wednesday. Illinois, which started the conference season with a three wins in a row, are now 6-3 in the Big Ten but just 4-5 ATS, including 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS at home, with the lone SU setback being an 84-78 defeat to then-No. 13 Purdue in a pick-em contest last month. The Illini are 11-1 this season at Assembly Hall, but just 4-7 ATS.
The Spartans ran their winning streak over Illinois to five in a row with a 73-63 rout at home on Jan. 16, but Illinois got inside the number as an 11½-point underdog. In fact, the teams have split the cash in their last 10 meetings, with the underdog covering in the last three and the visitor going 4-0 ATS in the last four.
Although it has failed to cover in five of its last six games, Michigan State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after a loss and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 Saturday contests. The Illini sport several negative ATS trends, including 4-9 overall, 1-5 at home, 1-6 against winning teams, 2-5 after a SU win, 7-18-1 after a non-cover and 1-7 after a non-cover.
These teams have stayed under the total in seven of their last eight meetings overall and seven of the last eight clashes in Illinois. Additionally, Michigan State is riding “under” trends of 7-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 16-5 in Big Ten action and 5-1 versus winning teams. On the other hand, the Illini are on “over” streaks of 19-7 overall, 10-2 at home, 4-1 in league play and 7-2 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Arizona State (16-7, 9-10 ATS) at Washington (15-7, 6-15 ATS)
Arizona State shoots for a two-game weekend sweep in Washington when it visits to the Huskies, who are seeking their fourth consecutive win overall and third straight Pac-10 victory.
The Sun Devils had little trouble at Washington State on Thursday, topping the Cougars 81-70 as a 2½-point road favorite. Since starting conference play with consecutive road losses to USC and UCLA, Arizona State has won five of its last seven games SU and ATS, going 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the team’s last 11 games, including all 10 of its Pac-10 contests.
Washington has won three in a row and five of its last seven, with all five wins coming at home (3-1 ATS in lined contests). On Thursday, the Huskies earned a tough 81-75 victory over Arizona, but fell short as a 10-point favorite. That victory came on the heels of last Saturday’s 92-64 rout of Washington State as a nine-point home chalk, with Washington outscoring its instate rivals 56-24 in the second half. Lorenzo Romar’s team is 15-1 at home (6-9 ATS), compared with 0-6 SU and ATS away from Seattle.
The Huskies’ average margin of victory at home is 20 ppg, as they’re averaging 86.8 ppg and allowing 68.8 ppg in front of their fans, and prior to Thursday’s six-point win over Arizona, Washington had scored four straight double-digit home wins (three against Pac-10 rivals). As for Arizona State, it has split its eight games away from home (both SU and ATS), netting 66.3 ppg and yielding 64 ppg.
These teams met a month ago in Tempe, Ariz., and the Sun Devils rolled 68-51 as a four-point home favorite, improving to 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Huskies. Arizona State also defeated Washington 75-65 as a one-point chalk in last year’s Pac-10 tournament, so it has won two in a row in this series after losing 12 of the previous 13 clashes going back to 2003-2004. The Sun Devils are 1-6 SU in their last seven in Seattle, but they’ve cashed in four of their last five visits to Bank of American Arena. In fact, the visitor is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Arizona comes into this contest armed with ATS hot streaks of 6-2 overall (all in conference), 4-1 versus winning teams and 4-1 after both a SU and ATS win. On the flip side, the Huskies are mired in pointspread funks of 6-16 overall, 3-8 in the Pac-10, 5-12 against winning teams, 4-12 after a SU victory and 1-5 after a non-cover.
These teams have topped the total in four of their last five meetings. Also, Washington is on “over” upticks of 27-11 overall, 18-7 at home, 27-8 in Pac-10 action, 20-6 after a SU victory and 17-8 on Saturday, while the Sun Devils have gone high in six straight overall (all in conference), five of six on the road, four of five versus winning teams and five of seven on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE and OVER
NBA
Denver (34-16, 23-25-2 ATS) at Utah (30-18, 29-17-2 ATS)
The Jazz put their seven-game overall and nine-game home winning streaks on the line when they entertain the Nuggets at EnergySolutions Arena in a Northwest Division tussle.
Denver caps a quick two-game road trip tonight, coming off Friday’s 126-113 upset of the Lakers as an 8½-point road underdog. The Nuggets, who continue to play without All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony (who has missed seven straight games with an ankle injury) are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games, including 5-2 on the road. However, George Karl’s club is in a 10-17-2 funk overall, going 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 as a visitor.
Utah has been off since crushing the Trail Blazers 118-105 as a 7½-point home favorite on Wednesday, its seventh win in a row (6-1 ATS), with five of the last six being by nine points or more. The Jazz have also won 12 of their last 14 games, going 11-1-2 ATS, and during this stretch, they’re 9-0 at home (7-1-1 ATS). Utah has been getting the job done on both ends of the floor, topping 100 points in nine straight games and 11 of the last 12 (110.3 ppg average) while holding 12 of its last 14 opponents to 98 points or less (96.6 ppg average).
The Nuggets have taken four straight meetings with Utah (3-0-1 ATS), including all three this year (2-0-1 ATS). Most recently, the Jazz went to Denver on Jan. 17 and fell 119-112, pushing as a seven-point road underdog, which ended the Nuggets’ 6-0 ATS roll in this rivalry. The favorite is 23-11-2 ATS in the last 36 clashes between these division foes.
In addition to their aforementioned pointspread slumps of 10-17-2 overall and 4-8-1 on the road, the Nuggets are also in ATS nosedives of 5-12-2 against the Western Conference, 1-5-1 against division foes and 1-4-1 when playing on back-to-back nights.
Utah’s ATS streaks of 11-1-2 overall and 7-1-1 at home are bolstered by additional pointspread upticks of 8-1-1 against the Western Conference, 16-5-2 against winning teams, 6-1 on Saturday, 4-0-1 when coming off two days of rest and 4-1-2 after a double-digit win. However, the Jazz are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games against Northwest Division rivals.
Denver is on “under” streaks of 4-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway and 5-1 on Saturday, but Utah sports “over” trends of 12-2 against division rivals, 5-0 versus winning teams and 4-1 after two days of rest. Finally, the last four Jazz-Nuggets battles in Salt Lake City have stayed low
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Matt Fargo
BYU at UNLV
Play: UNLV
UNLV is riding a four-game winning streak heading into this game and possibly even more importantly is that the Rebels have had eight days off since their last game prior to Wednesday so they will nice and fresh heading into this BYU game which beings a tough three-game stretch. After this the Rebels host New Mexico and then are at San Diego St. so they will be facing the top three teams, besides themselves, starting with this game on Saturday. This series is turning into one of the better rivalries in the conference and UNLV will be playing for some revenge in this rematch. The Rebels lost the first meeting in Provo by four points but there is no shame in that defeat as BYU is 13-0 at home this season and that four-point margin is the only single-digit margin of victory for the Cougars at home this season. The Rebels had won the previous three meetings including a two-game series sweep a season ago so BYU was playing with its own revenge in mind back in early January. UNLV had every chance of winning that game as it outshot BYU 46 percent to 36.8 percent but it was at the wrong end of free throws as the Cougars had double the amount of attempts and had a 19-8 scoring edge from the charity stripe and that was the ultimate difference. Offense has been key for UNLV during this recent run as it has shot 50.0 percent or better from the field in four consecutive games after topping 50 percent just twice in the first 18 contests. It will need a strong offense to match that of the Cougars. All-American guard Jimmer Fredette was not 100 percent in that first meeting as he was battling a case of mono and he was held to just seven points on 2-10 shooting in that first meeting so you know that he will be stoked for this rematch. BYU had its 15-game winning streak snapped in its last road game at New Mexico and at 6-2 on the season, it is clear that the Cougars are not same team on the road. That record is outstanding for a road mark for most teams but it could be worse as of those six wins, three came by six points or less so there is definitely some vulnerability there. One aspect that the Cougars thrive in taking case of the ball and playing efficiently as they have a 1.38 assist/turnover ratio on the season. This is one game where they will not have a big advantage however as UNLV comes in with a 1.33 ratio. The loss of guard Derrick Jasper is a big absence for the Rebels but this is a guard-oriented team and a deep one at that. The fact that UNLV has used such a deep rotation this season could now prove beneficial as it will take several replacements to fill the void left by Jasper. Guard Kendall Wallace's experience, as he's already started six games this season, is important making him a nice fit in the rotation with the first-teamers. A win here will put the Rebels into a first place tie with BYU in the MWC, making this a huge game in front of the raucous home crowd. 3* UNLV Runnin Rebels
Marc Lawrence
Xavier at Dayton
Play: Dayton
Believe it or not, the Flyboys have won 30 of their last 31 games at Dayton Arena in straight-up fashion. But there are plenty more reasons to like the home team in today’s rematch of a 78-74 win-no cover by the X-Men back in mid-January. First, Dayton will be looking to cut into the Musketeers’ substantial lead over the Flyers in the heated Atlantic 10 race. Next is the visitor’s weak 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS series record at this venue, as well as their failure to cover against top-flight competition (1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS L6 away versus .700 or greater foes). And from an ATS standpoint, Xavier has done the majority of its damage at home this season, going 9-2 ATS compared to a 4-3 ATS mark away from Cincinnati. Incidentally, that one home loss by the Flyers came in their very last appearance on this court, a shocking 1-point setback to Rhode Island. You know what to do here.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz
Fresh off their 126-113 upset of the Lakers, Denver finds itself in a horrible spot Saturday night having to travel to the high altitude of Utah to face the red hot Jazz. The hosts have won seven straight and 11 of their last 12 while failing to cover the spread only once during that stretch. The Jazz are playing with in-season triple revenge here, a spot in which they've cashed 70% ATS the past three seasons. They've scored 100+ points in nine straight games as well.
Play on: Utah
Sean Higgs
Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Clemson +1.5
The road team has covered 7 straight with the underdog on a 7-1 ATS run the last 8. Tigers in off a win over a otherwise hot Maryland team. Hokies up-ended the slumping Tarheels.
Charlie Scott
Villanova vs. Georgetown
Play: Villanova +2
When these 2 teams played earlier in the season, I got a lucky half point cover with Georgetown +5.5. When I was watching the game Villanova was up big, and I was beating myself up for being on such a wrong side. Villanova clearly had more talent and better players and Georgetown never really had a chance to win vs Villanova. I'll happily take the points and the better team !
LARRY NESS
Auburn @ Arkansas
PICK: Arkansas -5.5
Auburn and Arkansas both enter 11-11, although the Tigers are the far greater disappointment. Auburn won 24 games last year (including two in the NIT), by far Jeff Lebo's best season since moving to the SEC (this will be his 6th year). Four seniors were back this year and while all four have pretty decent numbers, an overall 11-11 mark, including 2-5 in a watered-down SEC West, is not what Lebo or fans had in mind. Sophomore guard Sullivan (13.2) joins senior guards Reed (16.1-4.8 APG) and Waller (12.6) on the perimeter with 6-6 senior Hargrove (13.2-7.1) and 6-10 senior Knox (8.5-3.8) doing most of the damage inside. However, the total has NOT been greater than the sum of its part with this year's team. Arkansas head coach John Pelphrey suspended sophomore guard Fortson before the season began (off the court incident) and he missed the team's first 14 games. Fortson returned Jan 5 vs Texas and hasn't missed a beat, scoring in double digits in all eight games, averaging 19.8-4.6-6.0. He teams with fellow sophomore guard Clarke (16.7) plus 6-7 freshman Powell (15.1-6.9) and 6-9 senior Washington (13.4-6.1) to give the Razorbacks four very talented players. Arkansas is starting to "come around," as the Razorbacks take a three-game winning streak into this contest with wins over MSU (69-62), at then-No. 20 Mississippi (80-73) and at Georgia (72-68). Arkansas is 4-3 in league play, which makes them tied for 1st with MSU. This game begins a six-game stretch in which the Razorbacks will face Auburn twice, LSU twice (currently 0-8 in the SEC) and Alabama (3-5 in SEC) once. Pelphrey's team has a real chance to get its season turned around and look for the Razorbacks to win their fourth straight game here, with ease.
LEE KOSTROSKI
California @ UCLA
PICK: California
Cal is coming off of two close losses. They lost at Arizona by four points and at USC by three points. They were rated as the best team in the Pac-10 before the season began but they have been really hot and cold. They’ve played a really strong schedule (Syracuse, Ohio State, Kansas), and have some close conference losses (UCLA, Arizona, and USC by a combined 8 points). They need a win here tonight to stay close to Arizona and Arizona State atop the Pac-10.
This is a huge revenge situation for the Bears. They were 15 point favorites at home against UCLA back on January 6th. They had an eight point lead at halftime but ended up losing by one point in overtime. It wasn’t that UCLA outplayed the Bears; Cal was just 2 of 18 from three-point range and couldn’t take advantage of 17 UCLA turnovers. The Bruins also made just 57% of their free throws. Cal will play better in this “must win” situation and get the big road victory.
UCLA has lost a lot of talent to graduation and to the NBA draft in recent years and it is showing their inexperience in 2010. They don’t have very much depth and they commit 14.2 turnovers per game. They used to be unstoppable on their home court and this season they’ve already lost four games – three of which were very winnable games. They’ve already lost 11 games this season (just 13 losses the previous two seasons combined). They aren’t the same UCLA powerhouse that we are used to and Cal should get the big road win on Saturday.
The road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings and we expect Cal to continue that trend tonight. Take the Bears minus the points.
JIM FEIST
NEW JERSEY NETS / DETROIT PISTONS
TAKE UNDER
Second of a back to back spot for both these. They have something else in common: they can't shoot! They are ranked 29 and 30th in the NBA in field goal shooting -- 43% and 42% -- last in the league. And they are last in scoring, too, with 90 and 91 points per game. Don't look for any offense in this with these brick layers, play the Nets/Piston Under the total.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play: UTEP over Tulsa
This past Thursday, if you would have polled me the points and Houston would have been the play over home standing UTEP. The Cougars had the lead, but faltered at the end in a 7-point loss, a push by Vegas standards. However, this scenario is ripe for the Miners who are in double revenge versus visiting Tulsa. Lay the points!
Steamline
Temple @ RICHMOND
Play: Temple
Owls and Spiders rumble on the NCAA hardwood today with both clubs disposing of their previous foes in a big way winning by double-digits. Clubs playing with Revenge in this role along with a pair of additional qualifiers are a paltry 4-22 (coming off a split last night in IVY play). Visitor with the sharp eye today avoiding the tangled web.
Spartan
Michigan pk vs Wisconsin
I had a huge release earlier this week with Northwestern at home against these Wolverines but am going to side with them in this big home battle with Bo Ryans Wisconsin Badgers. I'm certain most of the public will love the Badgers here with the convincing victory over Michigan State still fresh in their minds. Couple that with the drubbing Michigan suffered in Evanston and it looks like easy money, right? I am not convinced, not one bit. If Michigan wants to salvage this season and make some headway toward a possible NIT bid they need to hold down home court in the stretch run of the conference season. I look for Michigan to bounce back with a strong effort at home and knock off the Badgers in a close, physical game.
James Patrick Sports
Old Dominion vs. Virginia Commonwealth
HC Blaine Taylor and his Monarchs had their wings clipped in their last outing in which Northeastern shot 60% from the floor. That loss halted a run by Old Dominion in which they held five foes to just (50) points per game. Look for HC Shaka Smart and his Rams to struggle attempting to get his running game into gear in this one. Our Saturday NCAAA College Basketball selection is Old Dominion Monarchs in Colonial Athletic Association action.