Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on So. Illinois +10
SIU lost the season's first meeting in a game where it did not play very well and we are getting a great line today because of it. This game will be all about revenge for the Salukis, and while I think they'll come up short, they should be able to keep this one to single digits. In fact, plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (S ILLINOIS) revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, off a home win against a conference rival are 23-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have only been losing by 7.7 points on average. We'll take the points.
Info Plays
3* on Buffalo -9.5
Reasons why Buffalo covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road teams as an favorite or pick (BUFFALO) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after a combined score of 165 points or more. This is a 77-28 ATS System hitting 73.3% since 1997. This system is 2-1 this season. Bet Buffalo on the road.
Jack Jones
Michigan State -1
Look for the Spartans to bounce back off of their loss at Wisconsin their last time out with a win at Illinois on Saturday. You'd need to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last time the Illini beat Michigan State, and I don't think this year's squad has the talent to knock off the Spartans, even at home.
Michigan State holds the edge in points per game, defense, field goal percentage, rebounding, and points off of the bench. Lay the points on this small road favorite Saturday.
Sam Martin
Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
We'll fade Minnesota here just one day after their huge surprising win in Dallas last night. The TWolves shot 53% in that game, but now face a Memphis squad that is very big inside and force teams to make outside shots. And the Grizzlies fast style of play should wear down Minnesota in the fourth quarter after playing an up-and-down game last night in Dallas. Grizz pull away late! Play on Memphis.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Rutgers/Louisville UNDER 149
Rutgers is 9-2 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons and we are only seeing 134.8 points scored in these games on average. Also, Plays Under on road teams off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog against an opponent off a home win are 31-11 since 1997. We'll ride this 73.8% system here today. Bet the Under.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +1.14 over CHICAGO
The Bulls went from ice cold to start the year, to red-hot just a short time ago and now they’re back to being lifeless once again. They looked pathetic in a loss to Philly on Wednesday, they played last night in Atlanta and will play its third game in four nights here. It gets worse. The Bulls have not been home for consecutive road games since Jan 9-11, a span of 12 games. They’ve played nine of its last 10 on the road and this game will mark the 13th straight game in which they’ve had to travel. This team looks exhausted and that’s because they are. The loss of Joakim Noah cannot be measured in just rebounds and points. Noah provides energy and presence and he’s a big loss. Meanwhile, the Heat are still hit and miss but after four losses, one figures them to be a little more focused for this one. In addition, they’re coming off losses to Milwaukee twice, who is very hot at the moment and its last two losses have been to Boston and Cleveland so it’s not like they’re losing to poor teams. This Heat team is an enigma but they’re extremely talented and when they show up they’re very difficult to beat. After a 16-point loss to the Cav’s and after four losses in a row, figure them to show up here and take care of business against this very ripe host. Play: Miami +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
DETROIT –7 over New Jersey
Yeah, you pretty much have to be out of your mind to lay anything with the Pistons and that’s exactly why they’re a play here. The Nets stock has soared over the past few games in which anyone that has bet against them has thrown out their ticket. In fact, the Nets have covered five of its last six with its only non-cover during that span coming against these Pistons in which they were getting three and lost by four. The Nets last six games have been extremely close, including the one last night in Boston in which they were right it in until midway through the fourth quarter. They were in it against the Raps too in much the same fashion as they were last night. Those six close games takes its toll because intensity levels increase as the game goes on and you’re still in it and that’s precisely what has transpired for the Nets. Now they’ll travel to play its fourth game in five nights and they’ll be playing a team that should be refunding fans their money. The Pistons looked completely uninterested again last night in a 24-point loss at Indiana and that score is flattering to the Pistons. The Pacers toyed with them and didn’t want to embarrass tem further. They also lost to New Jersey at the Meadowlands and prior to that they lost to the Heat and scored 65 points. If they don’t respond tonight, there’s going to be hell to pay and one thing we know about NBA players is that their pride and egos are of high priority. The Pistons pride is on the line tonight and they’re in a perfect situation to respond. Play: Detroit –7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Missouri –4½ over COLORADO
Missouri has really let go of a golden opportunity at a #2 or #3 seed in the tournament because of poor conference play. I really believed this team could be a serious National Title contender sleeper but with some of the close wins and bad losses over the past month my expectations have drastically changed. Having said that, Missouri is still a significantly better team than Colorado who is an abysmal 3-7 in their last 10 games. Colorado has a truly pathetic interior defense that allows opponents to shoot 51.4%, a statistic that pits them dead last in the Big 12 and 301st nationally. Missouri has one of the best offenses in the Big 12 and drills 38.3% of their threes and almost never turns the ball over. They should have little trouble naming their score because their athleticism is simply too much for a Colorado team that is 10th from the bottom in offensive rebounds. That statistic tells me they can be run out of the gym and you can bet Missouri’s game-plan is to physically wear Colorado down. Furthermore, it’s hard to see what the motivation is for Colorado after almost upsetting Kansas, a loss that took an emotional toll and makes me question whether they can move past it so quickly. It’s one of my favorite angles to bet because emotion and motivation plays such a key role in the College game and devastating losses usually linger for a game or two. Missouri needs all the conference wins it can get and is fortunately catching Colorado in an extremely vulnerable spot. Play: Missouri –4½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
BOSTON +1.27 over Vancouver
The Bruins are really not playing that bad to justify its nine-game losing streak. They badly outplayed the Habs in its most recent loss, outshooting them 47-25 but still losing 3-2 in OT. Montreal scored two goals in 37 seconds in the second period to tie it up after the Bruins worked their ass off to open up a 2-0 lead. The game before they were up 1-0 on Washington and the game was tied 1-1 going to the third before they lost that one too. It’s been something like 56 years since the B’s lost this many in a row, which is a testament to just how hard that is to do. The due to ein angle is about as useless as any out there and this is not about that. This Bruins team is way too talented for this losing streak to continue much longer and luck has played a big role because they’re not getting outplayed. Now the Canucks come in to play its fourth road game in a row after games in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa, three of the most exciting places in the league to play. Furthermore, the Canucks will play a rare afternoon game, a routine they’re definitely not accustomed to while the Bruins are very accustomed to it. Remember, the Canucks are just 11-13 on the road and it’s very unlikely they’ll be at their best in this one. Bruins remain hungry. Play: Boston +1.27 (Risking 2 units).
NY ISLANDERS -½ +1.22 over Carolina
One has to figure this to a great spot for the Islanders and a very tough one for the Canes. Carolina played in Buffalo last night and will play its third game in four days here. They come in without Cam Ward and a slew of other significant injuries that include Chad LaRose and Tuomo Ruutu among others. They were pushed to the limit last night and used up a ton of energy in that 4-3 comeback win with two goals in the third. The Canes will also wrap up a four-game trip and it’s hard to imagine them being anything close to sharp. Meanwhile, the Islanders are hungry for wins after six straight losses. They had a three-day rest before its last game in Tampa on Thursday and have no excuses for this one. The Islanders continue to be a very hard-working bunch and continue to create lots of scoring chances. This is a crucial and very winnable game. Play: NY Islanders -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
TAMPA BAY -½ +1.37 over Calgary
The Flames look a whole lot sharper the past couple of games but last night they may have run into a very flat Panther team. Regardless of who made who look good, Calgary will still play its third game in four days and they’re playing a team that is quietly on a serious roll. In fact, the Lightning have picked up points in six of its last seven games, winning five times, losing one in OT and losing one outright. Its only loss over that span came in Washington by a score of 3-2. Additionally, the Bolts have allowed two goals or less in the other six games and even holding the Caps to three is impressive. The Lightning are rested, they’re playing great hockey and most importantly they’re playing solid defense and getting great goaltending from Nittymaki and Smith in goal is just as good or better. Tampa now sits in the eighth and final playoff spot but is just a point behind the Habs for sixth place. The run quietly continues. Play: Tampa Bay -½ +1.37 (Risking 2 units).
Wunderdog
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan
Play: Western Michigan -7.5
The Bowling Green Falcons are a very poor offensive team, and right now have been playing at their worst. The Falcons have averaged just 57 points per game over their last five. They have shot 40% or less in three of them, and over the last three games have hit just 9-44 from deep, just over 20%. Western Michigan has been over the 70-point mark 13 times this season, and it will hard for the Falcons to match them on the offensive end. The Broncos have been at their best bouncing back from a loss as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS following a loss. I'll go with Western Michigan in this one.
King Creole
RUTGERS plus the points versus Louisville
CAL-STATE NORTHRIDGE plus the points vs Long Beach State
SAN FRANCISCO plus the points vs St Marys-Cal
Playing on a Conference underdogs with the CONFIDENCE of multiple wins under their belts has turned out to be very profitable this season. This is from the same System that brought home Dawg Pound wins this week on ARIZONA (Thursday)… and ALABAMA + SOUTH FLORIDA (Wednesday).
23-8-1 ATS this season:
All Conference UNDERDOGS playing off BB SU and ATS wins… with the last wins as an Underdog. Your only three active teams on Saturday are RUTGERS, NORTHRIDGE STATE, and SAN FRANCISCO. We also note that in the last 4 weeks, this Systems has gone an almost-PERFECT 13-1 ATS,
Teams playing off not one… but TWO Underdog wins have done even better on the season. And that's the reason that both RUTGERS and SAN FRANCISCO get a slightly higher rating on Saturday.
Tony George
Texas A&M -2
Like the Aggies at home where they are undefeated and play great defense. On Wednesday Iowa State played NO perimeter defense and allowed Baylor wide open looks with little rebounding either. This will not be the case in College Station today and the home court advantage in the Big 12 rears its ugly head for the traveling Bears.
Jimmy the Moose
Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders
The Hurricanes played last night in Buffalo and left the arena with a 4-3 win. With the over in last night's game the over is 5-1 in Carolina's last 6 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 as a road dog. In their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record the over is 7-1. The over is a profitable 15-5-1 in their last 21 games as an underdog. The Hurricanes have found their scoring touch playing over the total in 7 of their last 9 overall coming into this one.
The under is 32-24 for the Islanders this season but look for their offense to come alive tonight. They are playing a Carolina team that played last night and that has been involved in high-scoring games in 7 of their last 9. The Hurricanes will also be without their starting goalie Cam Ward for this one another plus for the Islanders. New York played the over in their last game two home games have gone over the total. The over is 15-7 in their last 22 games vs. a team from the Southeast Division.
The over is 4-1 in Carolina's last 5 trips to Long Island. The teams have played over the total in 7 of the last 8 meetings. Look for the scoring to continue in another high-scoring game tonight.
Play the Hurricanes/Islanders Over
Dan Bebe
UTA -8 vs DEN
The Letdown - Denver played the Lakers last night, the team they've had their crosshairs locked onto since the moment the playoffs ended for them last year. Denver heads to Utah against a team they've already beaten 3 times this year, and the adrenaline just isn't quite the same when playing a team you've dominated less than 24 hours after a team you've been thinking about all year.
The Fatigue - Denver's game with the Lakers, as noted above, was the late ESPN game. It didn't TIP until 7:30 pacific time, didn't end until right around 10pm, and after packing, showering, and flying into Utah, it's been well-documented that most teams don't get into their rooms until around 4am when flying east and dealing with a time change. Now, Denver is better at dealing with fatigue than most teams, courtesy of playing in altitude, but here they are the team in altitude on no sleep, and the 3rd quarter is going to be a trouble spot for the Nuggets.
The Line - The Nuggets just got 8 points against the Lakers last night, and now they're getting 8 again tonight against Utah? This is one of those situations, discussed very recently on "Today in Sports Betting" podcasts, where the underdog is made to appear more attractive than usual to garner more money on that dog. The Nuggets don't get 8 points often, and they certainly shouldn't against a team they've clocked 3 times already this year. This is an underdog trap.
The Revenge - Utah has been playing great basketball of late, winning 7 straight games. But all of those are leading up to this one. Utah has lost 3 times to Denver, including one rather embarrassing loss at home earlier this year. This is the culmination of a 4-game homestand, and I expect one of Utah's strongest efforts all season long.
Play the Jazz for a unit, and collect!
MIN +2.5 vs MEM
The Timberwolves are playing with a renewed confidence, winning and covering 3 straight games. And these young CONFIDENT teams are always great plays heading into the All-Star Break, since while all the rickety old teams are starting to think about a few days off and gearing up for the stretch run, the Wolves are playing every game as if it's their last.
When you're winning, you want to play every night, and that's the case for Minnesota right now. It doesn't hurt that they're going against a Memphis team that probably wants a couple days off to regroup. They have lost 2 straight after the huge win over the Lakers, and have looked terrible in both. Last night, Memphis got manhandled by the Rockets, and I expect some of that bad mojo to carry over into this one.
So, while I feel strongly about the Wolves keeping their confidence going, fresh off the huge underdog win over Dallas last night, I also feel strongly that the Grizzlies are in a rut, and that will continue today, too. Memphis has looked disjointed and confused offensively, and that's just not going to cut it against a Wolves team that is making open shots, and just looks genuinely happy on the court.
This is also a triple-revenge spot for the Wolves, so this game means a heck of a lot more to them than it does to the Grizzlies. Neither team has been all that impressive on back-to-back games, and both are coming off games a pretty fair distance from Minnesota -- however, Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 ATS when the back-to-back ends at home, and Memphis is 1-10 SU in back-to-backs, and 2-5 ATS when that second game is on the road. With that in mind, I believe the home crowd is going to make all the difference here. Minnesota is young and spry, and feeling their oats. If Memphis wins this game, it's going to be on a buzzer beater.
Take the Wolves, and enjoy the fruits of their labor! This is a 1-UNIT PLAY.
Tom Freese
Tulsa at Texas-El Paso
Play: Texas-El Paso
Tulsa is 18-4 overall and 7-1 in Conference Play. Guard Ben Uzuh scores 15.8 points a game. Guard Jerome Jordan scores 14.8 points a game. Guard Justin Hurtt scores 14.4 points a game. No other player scores more than 8 points a game. The Golden Hurricane are 2-7-1 ATS 10 road games and they are 1-5 ATS their last their last 6 games as road underdogs. UTEP is 16-5 overall and they are 7-1 in Conference Play. The Miners score 77 points a game. UTEP has five double figure scorers. Guard Randy Cullpepper leads the team in scoring 16.7 points a game. Forward Derrick Caracter scores 14.3 points a game and 8.8 rebounds a game. Three other players score between 11.6 and 10.9 points a game. The Miners are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games as favorites of 0.5 to 6.5 points. PLAY ON TEXAS El Paso -
Freddy Wills
Seton Hall vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Seton Hall +4
I really like the way Seton Hall is playing and with 83% of the public hammering Pitt Panthers to win this game when the line was -4.5 the line dropped to 4. Oddly enough Seton Hall beat Pitt at home by three points and normally I like to go with the revenge angle, but I really like how Seton Hall pressured Pitt and played quality defense holding them under 40%. I just believe these two teams are more even than people think, because the perception of Seton Hall and Pitt are completely different compared to years past. The Dog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and I expect them to cover again here today.
Stan Lisowski
76ers
Philly has revenge in a series where the visitor has won outright 7 of the last 10 meetings. Houston is just 4-8 ATS playing back-to-back this year, while they have dropped 9 of 15 in non-conference play.
Mike Hook
Georgia +5 vs Vanderbilt
I love this play, as it fits perfectly into a system i love to back. Vandy opened as -5.5 road favorites, which is always a sign of things to come. What i really like is that this line keeps getting bet down. I know some sharp people that like Vandy here, but everytime i capped this game, i had it as a 1 spread. I know Georgia doesn't look that impressive, but this is a team that plays well for nearly 35 minutes of every game. This team has held the lead at the half in every league contest but 1, only to lose the game in the final 2 minutes. If you keep putting your foot at the door, eventually you are going to get in. With this initial line opening, along with the ensuing line movement, i think today IS THAT DAY that Georgia gets a huge win. I'm a big fan of Vandy, but i think they have their work cut out for them today. Yes, i'm BUYING THE HOOK here. Anyone with as many close games as i've had of late would do the same. This is another example where i feel buying the hook is the right thing to do giving the exact situation. I'm backing GEORGIA +5 here as a free play that i'm personally playing for 1 UNIT!
Austin Peay +14 vs Murray St.
This line is simply too high. I have too much respect for Austin Peay to think they can't keep this a single digit game. I have Austin Peay as a top 125 team facing off against Murray St. team that is top 80. However, the clear edge in strength of schedule goes to Austin Peay, as Murray St. has played one of the 20 easiest schedules in all of Division 1 basketball.
Austin Peay plays teams close. They have losses this year by exactly 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 points. Those specific losses make up half of their season losses. Realize too, that other losses were against teams like Missouri and Tennessee. Austin Peay has played far better teams and played them tough. I realize Murray St. is LEGIT and a BEAST at home. But this line shouldn't be this high. This is an added game, so i realize not alot of action is on this game. I love that this game is flying under the radar. We will take advantage of this opportunity, as i simply can't ignore my power rankings on this one. Hard work is going to net us this PROFIT, so let's follow our instincts. Austin Peay +14 as a free play that im personally playing for 1 UNIT!