Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Eastern Washington at Northern ColoradoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Northern ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Things continue to go badly for Eastern Washington. This team has been plagued by a multitude of problems all season, and it sure doesn't seem to be getting any better for Jim Hayford's Eagles. Justin Crosgile had been their best player, but he quit the program. Collin Chiverton took a leave of absence for awhile, and while he has returned to action, he's playing horribly. Eastern Washington looks like a lifeless squad right now. Northern Colorado has also been a major flop in the Big Sky, and I would normally have little interest in laying a number this high with a team that has only two D-1 wins all season. But the Bears came out roaring last game against Portland State, amassing a massive lead and coasting to an easy win. Perhaps that's a buy signal for a team that has not played to potential thus far. The scheduling dynamics are an additional plus with the visitors coming out of a game at North Dakota while the Bears are a stay at home squad today. I'm going chalk here with Northern Colorado.
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Towson -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even in the midst of a 1-31 season of last, Towson only lost this matchup by 2 and 6 points LY. Now the Tigers are growling, with a 9-3 ATS record, including 4-1 SUATS in league play. JMU had a mid-week meltdown on the road at George Mason, resulting in an 11 point loss after leading in the second half. It dropped their record as traveler this season to 1-6 SU, 2-4 ATS. Don't think it gets any better against the nation's most improved team, thanks to transfers Benimon (G'town), Burwell (S. Fla) and Dixon (Prov). The Tigers have covered 8 straight on the road, but the 1-3 SU, 1-2 ATS mark on a Towson Center home court where they are 8-37 SU 3+Y, prevents us from taking off rubber band.
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Long Beach +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hidden motivation in this game comes from the fact that Fullerton handed Long Beach it's only league loss of the season last year. Look for full focus from an emerging Long Beach team who has integrated transfers Freeland (DePaul) and King (AZ St) into a 5-1 start to the Big West season. The host Titans are a peripatetic team whose games average nearly 160 PPG. They are capable of shooting the lights out, averaging 84/50/41 with 9/22 threes, and 77% from the stripe. But they are equally capable of giving it back on other end where they allow 74/46. Key to coverage may well be whether Beach who commits 15 TOs / game can take care of the rock against the Titan pressure forcing nearly 18 TOs / game. When hot, Fullerton is good enough to win at Northridge by 19. When not, they can lose on this floor, by 27 to Irvine, as they did Thursday night. Let's give a shout out to the perennial league champs as dog playing with revenge. My Saturdays are strong and this is no exception... I will be offering up 18 games. Get em, don't get em but these games are strong and include (9) 3* winners and these will give you an opportunity to get flush... don't miss your opportunity. http://bit.ly/nu
DAVID BANKS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL WEEKEND LEAN SHEET
Kansas at Texas
This contest pits the top two defenses in the country in terms of field goal percentage allowed. At 15-1, Kansas has won 14 straight games since its only loss vs. Michigan State in the second game of the season, and while the Jayhawks are averaging 76.8 points per game offensively, their defense has allowed the lowest field goal percentage in the nation at a scant 34.2 percent. Texas is second in field goal percentage allowed at 34.3 percent, and the Longhorns lead the country in effective field goal percentage against, as they lead in three-point defense and rank third in two-point defense. The difference is that Texas does not shoot the ball well at all, ranking 253rd in offensive efficiency and 305th in effective field goal percentage for. The 'under' is 13-1-1 in the last 15 Kansas road games. Lean: Under
Syracuse at Louisville
Louisville is now the top ranked team in the country and riding an 11-game winning streak, but the Cardinals should have their hands full with the Orange here. Louisville wins with stifling defense, leading the country in defensive efficiency and ranking second in turnovers forced. However, the Cardinals will not have their usual big defensive edge here against the suffocating Syracuse zone. The Orange rank third in defensive efficiency and fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed. Syracuse also ranks a good 22nd in offensive efficiency thanks to ranking sixth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Syracuse swept two low scoring affairs between these teams last season including a 52-51 win here in Louisville. Home teams coming off of 10 straight wins (Louisville) are just 32-69-2 ATS since 2011. Lean: Syracuse
Creighton at Wichita State
Creighton is an offensive juggernaut this season as it leads the country in both effective field goal percentage and three-point shooting at a sensational 45.4 percent while also ranking third in two-point shooting. Of course it helps having a player like Player of the Year candidate Doug McDermott who is shooting 56.8 percent from the field overall including an unheard of 50.7 percent from three-point land. However, defense is not a strong suit for the Bluejays as they are 85th in points against and 83rd in field goal percentage allowed. Wichita State can exploit that as the Shockers rank 47th in effective field goal percentage including hitting on 53.6 percent of their two-point shots. The 'over' is 41-25-2 since 2007 when Creighton went 'over' in its previous game. Lean: Over
Oregon at UCLA
UCLA has turned its season around since two players, Tyler Lamb and big man Josh Smith, left the team early in the year. The Bruins have won nine straight games while employing mostly a four-guard offense and playing a ton of zone defense. That small lineup has UCLA ranked 14th in offensive efficiency, and because the Bruins usually have four ball-handlers on the floor, they protect the ball extremely well ranking third in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. Oregon is 14-2, but the Ducks have faced a schedule ranked 302nd in SOS, with one of the losses coming on the road to a UTEP team ranked 100th by Pomeroy. UCLA is 17-9 ATS in the last 26 home games if it was also home in its previous game. Lean: UCLA
Harry Bondi
UTAH (-8.5) over Cleveland
FREE PICKS are 13-6 our last 19 and tonight we play on the Jazz in what is a horrible scheduling spot for the young Cavs, who have been away from home for more than a week and are playing the final game of a brutal five-game road trip. Cleveland got a rare road win in its last game when it upset Portland so we'll call for a letdown here against a Utah team that's been off since Monday and comes in a profitable 11-5 ATS this season at home. Jazz frontman Al Jeferson is on fire with three straight back-to-back double-doubles and the Cavs will have no answer. Lay the home chalk.
Robert Ferringo
USC (-6.5) over Oregon State
This is a projected line, and I think that this spread will be somewhere between 6.5 and 7.5. A lot will depend on how these teams fare in their games on Thursday as well. The Trojans finally fired that loser Kevin O'Neill this week, and I think that this veteran team can respond. O'Neill had been mismanaging the talent on this team all year, and I'm sure that the players hated his grating style. I know this Trojans team hasn't had time to gel. They had a brutal nonconference schedule, and with so many transfers and guys coming back from injury it was important that this team have a little time to grow together. They didn't get that, and O'Neill was a mess with his handling of playing time. But now all of that is behind this team. And I still think that they have enough proven talent on this squad to be a thorn in the side of some teams in the Pac-12. Oregon State is a terrible road team. They have gone just 5-22 straight up in their last 27 Pac-12 road games over the last three years. The Beavers have started league play 0-3, and all three of those games were at home. It is looking like this could be the end of the line for Craig Robinson, who really hasn't accomplished anything in his time at OSU. Take the more motivated, more veteran team and their home-court edge here.
Allen Eastman
Utah (-9.5) over Cleveland
This is where I think that the line will be. I am expecting a blowout in this game. Utah has one of the best home-court advantages in the league. They will also come into this game off of four days of rest. They needed it. The Jazz had to play eight games in 12 days and have played three of four games on the road. But they have been playing really well. This team has gone 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. They have one of the top offenses in basketball, and they should take advantage of the Cavaliers. This game is going to be the end of a five-game road swing for Cleveland. I think they will not be ready to play and will just want to go home. I like Utah to win this one by at least 15 points.
Matt Rivers
Your Saturday comp play will be Harvard as they play a rare non-conference January game at Memphis against the Tigers who are simply laying a few too many points this Saturday afternoon.
Memphis is the class of Conference USA, but that is reflected in the price of today's contest, and I can see Tommy Amaker's Crimson sneaking inside the back-door in this one.
The Tigers just walloped Rice by 26-points earlier this week for their seventh straight win, but Memphis is just 2-4 against the spread this season when asked to cover double-digits.
Harvard is also off a win over Rice earlier this month, as the defending Ivy League champions bested the Owls by 30 points! The Crimson come to the Land of Elvis with wins in seven of their last nine straight up, and they are a perfect 4-0 versus the spread in that span in the underdog role.
Grab the points as Memphis shows just enough for the outright, but not enough for the cover.
1* HARVARD
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Temple to name it against St. Bonaventure in Philly early on Saturday afternoon.
The Owls dodged a bullet on Wednesday when they came from double-digits down to edge past George Washington down in D.C. Expect Fran Dunphy's team to get back to form versus the Bonnies who come to the City of Brotherly Love mired in a six game straight up losing streak that has seen the points work just once in those six losses!
Temple has owned this series with ten wins in as many tries since the 2005 season. The Owls have also covered in four in a row against the Bonnies, and are on an 11-1 overall series spread roll the past dozen conference meetings.
St. Bonaventure is allowing a whopping 81 ppg during their current six game slide, so would tend to expect the Owls who have been in the 50's in two of their last three games to get their offense grooving here.
Lay the wood as Temple pulls away for the easy win and cover as the Bonnies slide hits seven in a row.
4* TEMPLE
Your Saturday freebie is La Salle plus the points at Xavier.
The days of Musketeer domination in the Atlantic 10 certainly do not apply this season, as the X-Men are clearly in a down mode this season, as their modest 10-6 straight up mark suggests.
The Musketeers have won their last three following their ugly four game slide, but they are playing a man down as guard Dee Davis is still bothered by a wrist injury, and they are facing a La Salle edition that regularly has seven players seeing double-digit minutes per game.
La Salle had been on a five game series slide, but that slide was snapped in the Explorers 10-point home win over Xavier last January in Philadelphia. The addition of Tyrone Garland - 11 points off the bench in 21 minutes in Wednesday's conference win over Dayton - is paying dividends for Dr. John Giannini's team.
The Explorers are looking for their first conference road win today, and I definitely feel they can win this game outright.
I know a basket is not a lot to play with as the "road dog", but I like La Salle plus the points to pull this one out.
3* LA SALLE
Scott Delaney
I am playing the George Washington Colonials plus the points at Massachusetts tonight.
The Colonials will be playing the first of two straight games in New England tonight, and I like their chances at challenging the Minutement for an outright win at the Mullins Center in Amherst, Mass. And this isn't just 'any' game out of the Atlantic 10, either, as these two are charter members of the league - the only institutions to have played in the conference all 36 seasons.
There's some pride at stake.
And even though the G-Dub is the only program nationally to start four true freshmen in a game this season - and has done so now in all three of its league games - I like the way it has grown, and improved, despite a 7-9 mark. The Colonials lost Wednesday, 55-53, to a very good Temple team. They led for nearly 38 minutes, but were silenced over the final 7:53, as the Owls closed the game on a 10-0 run.
Sure, on paper U Mass (12-4, 2-1) looks like the better team - and just might be - but the Colonials have covered eight of 12 on the year, and are staying competitive in their games.
The road team has won and covered the last two meetings, while it's been the visitor covering eight of the last 11 meetings. I'm taking the points here, as George Washington looks to pull an upset.
3* GEORGE WASHINGTON
Sean Michaels
Being here in Vegas, I've had the opportunity to watch UNLV play six times in person. With the exception of last Saturday's near-disaster, a 76-71 overtime win against Air Force, the Rebels have played pretty good ball.
Problem is tonight they're not at Thomas and Mack. Instead they're in Fort Collins, Colorado to take on the better-than-expected Rams of Colorado State.
The Rebs did pull off a rare road win against a long-time nemesis, beating San Diego State 82-75 on Wednesday. But "rare" is the key word in that sentence.
The victory against the Aztecs snapped an eight-game ATS skid outside of Vegas for the Runnin' Rebels, who have covered just twice in their last 14 road games overall.
Tonight they're tackling a Colorado State team that recovered from a five-point loss at San Diego State last Saturday that snapped a seven-game winning streak by destroying Air Force 79-40 at home on Wednesday.
And that's the same Air Force that gave UNLV fits last weekend.
What Colorado State has and UNLV lacks is an interior presence. With former Minnesota transfer Colton Iverson, a 6-10 center in the paint averaging 15 points and nine boards, and power forward Pierce Hornung joining him down low, the Rams are outrebounding their opponents by 14 a game. That leads to a decisive advantage in second-chance scoring opportunities and definitely hits the Rebels in their Achilles Heel.
CSU is on a 14-3 ATS run and has won a school-record 23 games in a row straight-up in Fort Collins.
2* COLORADO STATE
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play for me is on the Atlanta Hawks, plus the 4 or 5 points, vs. San Antonio.
We've all seen that the Spurs are a MUCH better team at home than they are on the road, and today we get lucky enough to happen to catch them away from home.
And if you consider the Spurs finished up a late home game vs. the Warriors last night, had to turn around, hop on a plane to Atlanta, and try to get some sleep before they turn around less than 24 hours later and play another basketball game.
San Antonio isn't built like that anymore. Tim Duncan can't continually get up and down the floor like he used to. This has become more of a half-court, methodical, patient team vs. when they used to run teams to death in the past.
Let's also consider the fact that Manu Ginobili makes a HUGE differene whether you want to believe it or not, and with him out of the lineup due to injury. The lineup shuffling will continue tonight for the Spurs, and therefore I like the Hawks to step up their game and surprise the Spurs in Atlanta tonight.
Free play of the day on Atlanta plus the points. Good luck!!
3* ATLANTA
WunderdogFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Harvard at MemphisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Harvard +10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tommy Amaker has definitely made a difference as coach at Harvard. The Ivy League is no longer a league about Penn, Princeton, and recently Cornell, as Harvard has become the best and most consistent team. They are 9-5 this season, and shoot almost 49% from the floor, and are a great 3-point shooting team at over 43% on the season. That certainly is a resume to score the cash as a big dog here. Memphis is not quite at the same level when John Calipari was here, but is still a very good, solid basketball team at 13-3. The Tigers come into this one with a poor resume in out-of-conference play, where they are just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51, while Harvard has claimed five of their last six out-of-conference tilts. Take the points.
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Texas Tech at Oklahoma StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Oklahoma StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that OS will win this game by 21 or more points. OS has a solid defense ranking 22nd in the nation allowing 58.3 PPG and will make it very difficult for TT offense to reach their season average of 70.7 PPG that ranks 84th in the nation. TT has very poor ball movement and too many times relies on their leader Crockett to bail them out as the shot clock winds down. This poor ball movement is further weakened by the fact that OS ranks sixth in the nation allowing opponents an average of just 8.6 assists per game and seventh sporting a 0.573 opponent assists to turnover ration. TT ranks just 273rd with a 0.761 assists-to-turnover ratio and 18.2% of their possessions have resulted in a turnover. Sim shows a high probability that OS defense will limit TT to 60 or fewer points. OS is a rock solid 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game this season. Moreover, the sim shows that OS will score between 75 and 80 points and in past games they are a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Oklahoma State.
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Syracuse vs. LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: SyracuseFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I don't trust Louisville's struggling offense laying this many points to a good Team like Syracuse. Louisville struggles shooting from outside and will have to vs the Syracuse 2-3 zone. Play Syracuse !
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UNLV vs. Colorado StFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV is off their best game of the Year a win at SDST. That and the altitude at Colorado St should slow their offense down. Add that Colorado St will try and make this a half court game, a style of play that UNLV's offense struggles. UNLV will give a good effort on the defensive end vs Colorado St. PLAY UNDER !
Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Columbus vs. NashvilleFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We have to lay a little extra juice to play at 5.5. However, I feel that price will likely prove worth laying.
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Both 2012 meetings between these teams stayed below the total, including a 3-0 final for Nashville on this very day (1/19) last season.
Including that result, the Predators have seen the "under" go 30-15-8 in division play the past couple of seasons. Overall, their games averaged 5.3 goals last season.
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Note that most of last year's meetings between these teams had an O/U line of five, rather than 5.5. However, the final meeting (which finished with exactly five goals) had an O/U line of 5.5. Including that result, the Preds have seen the "under" go 19-14 the last 33 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5.
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Don't be surprised when those stats improve this evening. Take a look at the Under 5.5