Jack Jones
Blazers/Pistons UNDER 180.5
The bar has been set too high tonight in this showdown between the Portland Trail Blazers and Detroit Pistons. I envision a low-scoring affair Saturday as neither team exceeds 90 points in this one.
Detroit is scoring just 84.7 points/game this season, and they are 10-6 to the UNDER in all games this year. The Blazers have not been effective on the road offensively. They are scoring a mere 90.4 points/game on 40.7 percent shooting away from home.
The UNDER is 8-1 in Trail Blazers last 9 road games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 games as an underdog. The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in this series, including 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Detroit. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
Craig Trapp
Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Dallas Mavericks -5½
So many people think this DAL team is bad but if you really analyze the Mavs they have played really well last two weeks. On the other side this NO has a lack of talent and has lost 7 straight. NO is outgunned here and DAL keeps showing the bettors the money 8-2 ATS L10 games.
JR O'Donnell
Florida -13.5
These LSU Bayou Bengals visit the Fla Gators at 6 PM EST in a key early season SEC matchup. The LSU Tigers is 12-6 (9-6 ATS) while FLA is 14-4 (8-5 ATS). We give the backcourt edge to the Gators with an A+ to a B, a frontcourt edge with an A compared to a B and bench/depth again to the Gators with a B to a C! Florida is 5-3 ATS at home and 9-2 SU in their last "11", plus 5-0 SU in their last "5" at home. LSU is 6-19 SU in their last "25" on the road. Gators score 86.6 ppg at home a +24 average, and the Bengals score 62.7 on the road.
Doug Upstone
New Mexico State
Hawaii lost 74-70 two nights ago to Louisiana Tech as nine-point home favorites which puts them in an unenviable position for Saturday. Play Against home teams as an underdog or pick like Warriors, off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of six points or more, against opponent off a win against a conference competitor. (35-6 ATS since 2007)
SPORTS WAGERS
Long Beach State comes into this one with a perfect 6-0 record in the Big West. They’ve won six straight and all but one of those have been by nine points or more. The 49ers are 13-6 overall, which include nice wins over Xavier and Pitt. The 49ers are a contending Big West team but they’re also overvalued here against a very good Gauchos club. UC Santa Barbara is right behind LBSU in the conference with a 4-1 conference mark. This is a huge game with a strong home court advantage for UC Santa Barbara. It’s worth noting that the game has been sold out for weeks. Aside from home court advantage, we’re not convinced that the Gauchos are the inferior team here. They rank 28th in the country in rebounding, they have a future NBAer in Orlando Johnson and they have played some meaningful games against good competition. The Gauchos took UNLV to double OT, SDSU to overtime before losing to both. Had those two games been winners instead of losers, they would have been slightly favored here. This is a sound team on both ends of the court. One that does not deserve to be a pooch in their own barn. Play: #712 Cal Santa Barbara +105 (Risking 2 units).
We're also playing the following games.
SE Missouri State +6½ over TENNESSEE TECH
SE Missouri St +6½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Oakland +9½ over ORAL ROBERTS
Oakland +9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
LOYOLA CHICAGO +7½ over Butler
Loyola Chicago +7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
UAB +106 over Central Florida
UAB +106 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +110 over ANAHEIM
The Senators are two points behind the Rangers for first overall in the conference. They're four points behind Chicago for first place in the entire league. The Sens keep on winning, yet the books and/or public is not willling to give them elite status. That's fine by us because we keep cashing in on them and we're not about to stop now. Chicago, Boston, Philly, Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose, St. Louis and Pittsburgh would all be favored in Anaheim and Ottawa deserves the same billing. The Sens are coming off a 4-1 win in San Jose. They've picked up points in 11 of their past 12 games. Without trying to sound redundant, Ottawa is still not getting the credit they deserve. The Ducks have awoken with six wins in seven games but they beat the Islanders, Stars, Blue Jackets, Oilers and Coyotes. All five of those teams will be golfing in April. Anaheim has a good win in Vancouver mixed in there but the Canucks were returning home from that East Coast trip and were in a difficult spot. We'll give the Ducks some credit for their recent wins but their stock is way too high after beating a bunch of nobodies. The Ducks are still a weak team defensively while the Sens are having way too much fun to ignore as a pup against inferior clubs. Play: Ottawa +110 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO -½ +104 over Montreal
Montreal’s 5-4 OT loss last night in Pittsburgh is a lot less credible than it appears to be. Pittsburgh was coming off a 4-1 win at Madison Square the previous night and were playing its third game in four days. The Habs blew a 3-1 lead in that game against a tired Pens club in a letdown spot. Now Montreal will play its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. That’s a tough assignment for strong clubs but for weak one’s like the Canadiens it’s a daunting assignment. The Habs have dropped five of six and 12 of their past 16 games. They beat teams that are in unfavorable spots. Rarely do they outplay anyone and that’s because they’re hugely flawed on defense, offense and special teams. The Maple Leafs are coming off that 4-1 win over Minnesota. That’s not saying much but previous games are. Toronto clearly dominated Ottawa in that 3-2 loss but a soft goal allowed by James Reimer early in the third took all the steam out of the Leafs. They recently had a four-game winning streak in which they outscored the opposition 17-6. The Leafs are in a much more favorable spot, they’re the superior team by a wide margin, they’re at home and they’re rested. Play: Toronto -½ +104 (Risking 2 units).
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
4 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Georgia State/ Delaware Over 128.5: I have lost a few when taking the over in a Georgia State game, but I will go right back to them here. Georgia State has had some problems scoring of late as they have averaged just 60.4 ppg in their last 5 games, but that should change today vs a Delaware squad that has allowed 72.5 ppg in their last 6 games, while at home this year they have allowed 67 ppg at home on the year. Now despite the recent scoring woes for Georgia State they have still averaged 65 ppg on the road this year. Defense is where GSU has made their money this year as they come in having allowed just 57 ppg overall, but on the road they have allowed slightly more (62 ppg). Delaware has been an average team at the offensive end of the floor this year, as they have put up 67.6 ppg overall and 68.1 ppg at home, so this team is capable of putting up spome points. GSU should awaken on offense vs a Delaware team that has struggled at the defensive end, while the Blue Hens, will do their part by hitting 65 + points in front of the home crowd, in a game that should be played in the 130's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over in a game where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points if the home team is a poor shooting team (40-42.5%) against an excellent defensive team (<=40%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games. This play is 32-12 since 1997.
Kansas -3 over TEXAS: (Added) No offense to Baylor and Missouri below, but I feel the Jayhawks may be the best team in the Big 12 and they really proved how good they were with an 18 point walloping of Baylor in their last game. Kansas is 3-0 in true road games and 5-0 in the Big 12, while outscoring conference foes by an average of 18.2 ppg.The Jayhawks have allowed just 60.6 ppg in the Big 12, while Texas has given up 69 ppg in conference play, and that really isn't good, considering the fact that Kansas has put up 78.8 ppg in their conference games. Texas has averaged 75.8 ppg overall, but in conference play that number dips to 68.6 ppg on 41% shooting. Overall the offenses are even, but in big 12 play the Jayhawks get a big advantage, while they also have a sizeable advantage on defense. Kansas is off a big win vs Baylor, and if they were a lesser team then I would expect a letdown, but not from a top 10 team. Texas just doesn't have the horses on offense of the stopping power on defense to keep Kansas from winning this one by at least 7 points . KEY TRENDS--- KANSAS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997, while TEXAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
KENTUCKY-10 over Alabama: Bama just got shelled at home vs Vanderbilt (final was closer than actual game) and now they take to the road vs a Kentucky team that is 13-0 at home and has won those games by an average of 24.2 ppg, while winning both their conference home games by 15 and 23 points. Kentucky has averaged 83.5 ppg on an impressive 49.1% shooting at home this year and while Bama has allowed just 59.2 ppg on the road they have also allowed teams to hit 45% of their shots away from home. Alabama has shot well away from home (51%), but have only put up 65.2 ppg, and they will be taking on a Kentucky team that has allowed just 59.3 ppg on a mere 35.8% shooting at home. The Cats are deep, very athletic and are playing very well right now and should have no problems winning this one by 15+points.
BAYLOR -4.5 over Missouri: (Added) Google News Play. The Bears were just embarrassed on National TV at Kansas in their last game and will look to get back on track with a solid win here.They also have some added incentive after getting blown out by Missouri last February. Despite their loss to the the Jayhawks, the Bears are still outscoring opponents by 16.2 PPG this season, and that margin rises to 24.7 PPG at home. They have shot 49% FG or better 10 times already, while holding 12 opponents below 40% FG. The Tigers’ potent offense has been limited on the road (70.0 PPG) compared to at home this season (86.2 ppg) and that is not good for them as Baylor has permitted teams just 56.8 ppg on a mere 34.1% shooting on their home floor this year. They Tiger's also rebound poorly (34.4 rpg, 203rd in nation), while Baylor’s massive frontcourt is a big reason the team pulls down 38.0 rpg. That size advantage for the Bears (3 starters at 6' 6" or taller) should really come into play vs a Missouri team that uses a guard heavy set and has just one regular starter listed at taller than 6-6 (Ricardo Ratliffe 6'8"). Missouri is a different team away from home and the home team has won the last 5 SU (4-1 ATS), an I look for the trend continue here. Missouri's guards are quick, but Baylor just has too much size on the inside for them to handle here. Baylor will pull away late.
2 UNIT PLAY
AUBURN +1.5 over South Carolina: AUBURN is 13-3 ATS in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game after 15+ games since 1997, while S CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
Northeastern +10 over DREXEL: (Added) Play against home favorites of 10 or more points after scoring 60 points or less against opponent that has played 2 straight games where both teams score 65 points or less. This play is 36-12 the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
ARKANSAS PK over Michigan: ARKANSAS is 24-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997, while MICHIGAN is 3-12 ATS in road games after a game where they were called for 10 or less fouls since 1997.
TONY GEORGE
Colorado -1
Love the guard matchups in this one, the Buffs have a solid backcourt that can make things happen and Arizona's backcourt is a mess. With little or no points to lay, when a mis match is this glaring, I will lay less than a bucket any day of the week with a home team. Buffs tough at home in the altitude too. Play on Colorado
LEANS I passed on but worth a Look
Indiana State +13 - Creighton not a good double digit fav at home.
Kansas +3.... rolls em. Barnes is a horrible coach as well. Kansas does not have let downs, just various degrees of greatness. Especially in conference play. Bear in mind Texas came in to Lawrence last year as a 7 point pup and embarrassed Kansas.
EZWINNERS
Utah Jazz -7
The Timberwolves look to win four straight games for the first time in almost two years when they visit the Jazz tonight and it looks real easy to take the points after a strong second half helped Minnesota to a thrilling 101-98 win over the Los Angeles Clippers last night. But I like the Jazz to win this one comfortably. The Utah Jazz are exceeding many people's expectations this season. After winning eight of nine, Utah (9-5) saw its three-game winning streak snapped following a 94-91 loss to Dallas on Thursday. Al Jefferson scored 22 points and Paul Millsap added 16 points and 13 boards. The Jazz have won three straight at home against the Timberwolves and the home team is 6-0 against the spread in this series. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Texas +3.5
Riding high following a big win over previously-undefeated Baylor, expect this young Kansas team to come out flat Saturday afternoon. Texas, which returns home following back-to-back road losses will be hungry to say the least. Home court has treated the Longhorns well this season as they are an unbeaten 11-0 in their own building. The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Texas.
Sean Murphy
Carolina @ NY Islanders
PICK: Carolina
This series has been played fairly close to the vest in recent years. Four of the last nine meetings have needed overtime or a shootout to decide, and based on the way the Hurricanes are playing right now, I won't be one bit surprised to see another game go right down to the wire.
Carolina has collected points in four of its last five games, perhaps making up for lost time following that dreadful start to the season. The team is clearly buying what new head coach Kirk Muller is selling, making this squad one worth backing, especially against bottom-tier opposition like the Islanders.
New York has also been playing much better lately, but this is a prime letdown spot following back-to-back road wins over the Capitals and Flyers. Note that home ice hasn't provided much of an edge for them this season, as they've gone 10-14 SU.
The 'Canes will be aiming for revenge here after dropping a 4-3 shootout decision against the Isles at home on January 3rd. We're able to lay a reasonable price to get the extra half-goal in regulation time with Carolina in this spot, especially considering its won in each of its last three trips to Long Island.
Nelly
Pittsburgh - over Louisville
Pittsburgh has lost seven consecutive games, a steep fall for a program that has been among the nations elite in recent years. Losing to Wagner at home and falling 62-39 at home against Rutgers have been serious low points but the Panthers have earned covers in tough road venues this week, losing by just five at Marquette and by just eight at #1 Syracuse. Louisville's fall has not been as noticed but this is a Cardinals team that has lost five of the last right games. Many of the losses came against quality teams but the Cardinals have just two road wins all season long while going 3-7-1 ATS over the last eleven games. Pittsburgh still has some serious talent and this is a team that could make a bit of a run in the next month to salvage the season. No game is bigger than this one though as the Panthers can not afford another loss.
FREE NHL PLAY FOR 1/21: Philadelphia Flyers -107 (5Dimes) over the New Jersey Devils. The Flyers are showing alot of value at this price. Philadelphia has a better road record than New Jersey has at home. The Flyers are coming off a poor performance vs the Islanders at home, losing 4-1. Note that they are 4-0 in their last four after scoring two goals or less. New Jersey is a slight dog at home in this line, where they are 2-6 in their last 8 such situations. The Flyers actually matchup well with the Devils defensively, allowing 2.91 goals/game to New Jerseys 2.8 goals/game. But Philadelphia is averaging almost a whole extra goal per game offensively. New Jersey won the last meeting in a 4-3 S/O, but the Flyers are 14-6 vs the Devils in their last 20 meetings overall. Take the Flyers -107.
FREE NCAAB PLAY FOR 1/21: Michigan State -7 over Purdue. Its hard not taking the Boilermakers catching points as they are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 such situations. However they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. And the Spartans are playing much better this year on both sides of the court. Thats particularly true at home where the Spartans are giving opponents a real hard time getting to the basket. Theyve been allowing a stingy 59.1 points/game at home while dropping 82.3. This will only be the fifth road game for Purdue, and they've only been able to muster up 66.5 points/game so far on the road. Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take the home chalk, Michigan State -7.
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WUNDERDOG
Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Pick: Kansas State -3.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are 9-9 on the season, and to their credit they played an aggressive early season schedule. The problem isn't with the schedule it is the fact they lost to every good team they played. Kansas State, at 11-4, also played a lot of tough games. The difference here is that they won a lot of them with wins vs. Texas, Virginia Tech, Alabama and Long Beach State - a few of the teams that beat Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have shown no resolve as a dog of +6.5 or less where they are a money burning 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45. Play this one on Kansas State.
OC Dooley
Alabama-Birmingham PK
We have had a rather stunning offshore line move in this contest where visiting Central Florida actually opened as the one-point favorite. For the Knights to have been favored made sense since the team has a 14-4 overall record and is thriving with Marcus Jordan (son of legendary Michael) who is putting up a hefty 16.6 points per contest. But one can argue that Central Florida is in a classic “emotional letdown” situation as they are coming off an enormous victory backed on Wednesday which extended their home winning streak to 16-0. On Wednesday evening Central Florida finally defeated traditional Conference USA power Memphis for the first time in school history, courtesy of a three-point long range bomb with FOUR SECONDS left on the clock. The Knights face another obstacle this afternoon as they are 0-7 lifetime in this series versus Alabama-Birmingham. Entering Wednesday night the Blazers were 0-3 in conference play, even though by only a combined 9 points on the scoreboard. Three nights ago Alabama-Birmingham finally got over the hump with an overtime 61-60 road triumph which in itself is a confidence booster. Alabama-Birmingham has faced the 38th-toughest schedule in the country so they certainly have been tested. In the past three years the Blazers are a productive 13-4 ATS when off a close outright victory margin of 6-or-less points. Since veteran Mike Davis has been the head coach, Alabama-Birmingham has been near automatic (10-2 ATS) off a stretch of 4 straight-up setbacks in a six-game span