Black Widow
1* on San Francisco +9
San Francisco is simply catching too many points Saturday when they host the Gonzaga Bulldogs. This isn't the same Gonzaga team that most folks are accustomed to seeing year in and year out. The Bulldogs are struggling this year, and they aren't good enough to beat the Dons by double-digits Saturday. Gonzaga already has 6 losses this season, including a 71-85 setback at Santa Clara last time out. The Bulldogs are just 3-4 on the road this year, while San Francisco is 7-2 SU & 5-1 ATS at home. The Dons have won 5 of their last 6 games overall and are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five lined games. Just looking at last year's results, you can see that the Dons can hang with this team. San Francisco beat Gonzaga 81-77 as a 12-point home dog last season, and lost 69-75 on the road to the Bulldogs as a 20-point dog. Get ready for another closely contested battle in this rivalry Saturday. Take San Francisco and the points.
Bob Wingerter
New Mexico State vs. Utah State
Play: Utah State -14½
The Utah St. Aggies are ranked 39 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 47.3% while attempting 51.2 shots per game. The Aggies shooting percentages include 71.6% for free throw percentage and 37.1% for three point percentage so far this season. The New Mexico St. Aggies are ranked 143 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 43.8% while attempting 54.3 shots per game. The Aggies shooting percentages include 67.3% for free throw percentage and 33.5% for three point percentage so far this season. The Utah St. Aggies are 10-0 at home this season, and 6-0 against 11-2 opponents. At home the Aggies are averaging 74.9 scoring, and holding teams to 57.3 points scored on defense. The New Mexico St. Aggies are 2-5 while on the road this season, 4-2 against conference opponents, and 6-8 against non-conference opponents.
Ben Burns
Toronto @ Miami
PICK: Miami -12.5
The Raptors covered against the Heat (still lost by 9) earlier in the season and they've been mostly competitive in recent days. However, that wasn't the case last night at Orlando. Toronto looked visibly worn down. The result was a one-sided blowout loss by 40 points. The Raptors have been dealing with a number of injuries lately and the best two players that they've got remaining (Calderon and Bargnini) are both playing at less than 100%.
In addition to playing the second of back to back games, the Raptors will be their sixth game in the past nine nights. (This marks the final game of their road trip.) That hardly seems fair when considering that the Heat haven't played since Tuesday.
Don't expect Miami to show any "mercy" though - not when its coming off four straight losses. Indeed, the Heat have been "chomping on the bit" to get back on the court and to take out some of their frustration.
The Raptors, who gave up 112 points last night, are an awful 34-60-2 ATS the past few seasons, when giving up 105 or more points in their previous game. With the Heat at 29-14-2 ATS (41-4 SU!) the last 45 times they played a home game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range, lets lay the points with the "stronger" AND "fresher" home team. Consider Miami
Larry Ness
Arkansas @ Florida
PICK: Florida -9
Arkansas lost 81-74 at South Carolina in OT on Wednesday, as the Razorbacks fell to 0-3 in true road games this season (also 1-2 in neutral games). Arkansas is a perfect 11-0 at home but tonight's game will be in Gainesville. The Gators' last home game was a 72-69 loss to South Carolina but Thursday night Florida won 45-40 at Auburn, holding the Tigers to their lowest point total since 1982. That win was the sixth in the last seven outings for the Gators, who are 14-4 overall and 3-1 SEC play. Florida's last three losses have come by just three points, so maybe Billy Donovan's team is better that we think. It seems IMPOSSIBLE to believe that the Gators can shoot as poorly as they did Thursday, as Walker (14.4 PPG and a 45.2 percent shooter on the season) was 3-of-15 including 2-of-9 on threes, fellow guard Boynton (12.4 PPG) was 3-of-13 and also 2-of-9 on threes plus the 6-10 Parsons (10.3-6.5 and a 49.3 percent shooter TY) was 2-of-8 including 0-of-4 on threes. Joining those three are the 6-10 Macklin (10.7-6.3) and the 6-8 Tyus 99.3-4.9) in the staring lineup, which I believe is too much talent for Arkansas to compete with, especially away from Fayetteville. Clarke (13.0) is a solid guard but other than forwards Johnson (10.7-8.0) and Powell (10.3-3.9), the Razorbacks offer very little. Arkansas does play excellent team 'D,' allowing opponents a modest 64.4 PPG on 39 percent shooting from the floor, including just 29.9 percent from three-point range. If the Gators shoot like they did at Auburn (how is that possible?), they could be in trouble. However, considering Thursday's game was the worst offensive effort by the Gators in Billy Donovan's 13 years with the program, I expect the return home will do wonders. Arkansas doesn't have the players to match up. Take the Gators
EZWINNERS
Orlando Magic -3
The Magic are looking to avoid a fourth loss in five road games when they visit Houston, and the Rockets are the perfect opponent as the Rockets do not match up well with Orlando. Houston allowed a season worst 72 points in the paint Friday in a 115-110 loss at Memphis and I expect the Magic and Dwight Howard to dominate the paint in this game as well. Orlando has taken the last three overall meetings by an average of 16 points against Houston and I expect that success to continue. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON –1 over Phoenix
The Suns have woken up with four wins in a row but so what. They beat New Jersey in OT, Portland, the Knicks and finally the putrid Cav’s by eight. The latter two were on the road and now the Suns will play their third straight away from home. Fact is, Phoenix is not to be trusted on the road. They play no defense and are extremely vulnerable to big runs against. They’ve lost a lot of games already this year to weak teams, especially on the road and the Wiz are actually pretty good at home. Washington has a 12-8 home record and an incredible 0-20 road record. They’ve beaten some decent teams already at home including the Jazz in their most recent home game. The Wiz has now reeled off four wins in a row in their own building and the fact that the oddsmakers made the Suns an appealing pooch here, gives us all the confidence in the world that the Wiz will make is five straight. Play: Washington –1 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
CLEVELAND +6½/+244 over Milwaukee
The Cav’s are most certainly going to win some more games this season and after 14 losses in a row and 24 losses in their last 25 games this surely could be their day. Cleveland is coming off a decent effort against Phoenix in its first game back after a West Coast swing. They trailed in that game by 15 going to the fourth quarter and opened the frame with with a 10-1 run to cut the deficit by four before losing by eight. On that trip they were ripped apart but at least they played some real quality opponents in the Lakers, Jazz and Nuggets. They’re likely to get some healthy bodies back and you know for sure that they’re sick of losing. This is a very winnable game against a Bucks team that is really banged up and that has just six wins in 21 road games. The Bucks have dropped six straight on the road with five of six being by double digits. The Bucks are not a good wager on the road and there’s no doiubt they can even lose to this host. Play: Cleveland +6½ +100 (Risking 1 unit) Play: Cleveland +244 (Risking 1 unit).
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +103 over COLORADO
3:00 PM EST. The Bruins on the road are very appealing taking back a tag, albeit a small one. Boston is coming off a 4-2 loss to the Sabres but so what, as Buffalo always plays them tough. The B’s have not lost on the road in over a month and they’ve allowed the least amount of goals in the league thus far. That does not bode well for an Avalanche club that was given a big blow when they learned that Tomas Fleischmann will be lost for the remainder of the season. Fleischmann has sparked Colorado since arriving in a trade from Washington, posting 21 points in 22 games - second on the team in that stretch to Matt Duchene. The Av’s are already banged up with several players on the rack and while they work as hard as any team in the league, they possess a below average defense that can be forced into making a lot of bad decisions in their own end. Furthermore, Tim Thomas is 12-1-4 on the road and he’s likely to get the start after Tukka Rask lost against Buffalo. In any event, the B’s love the road and this one should be no different. Play: Boston +103 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +113 over PHOENIX
The Kings are an enigma. Here’s a team absolutely loaded with talent that has trouble stringing together wins. However, as a pup they offer up tremendous value because of said talent and because they can beat even the best teams on any given day. Also note that these two met this past Thursday in L.A. and the Coyotes left with a 2-0 victory. The Kings were completely steamed after what they claim was some awful calls by the refs so they come in here in a foul mood looking for some redemption. The Coyotes were outshot 36-15 in that contest and have now scored two goals or less in three straight. So, what we have here is the superior team, the Kings, fully healthy and raring to go playing a team that has been inconsistent and offensively challenged all season long and thus, there's only one bet to make here and it’s not on the home side. Play: Los Angeles +113 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 23: Fight for the Troops 2
Matt Mitrione (by TKO/KO) +132 over Tim Hague
Matt Mitrione is a perfect 3-0 since starting his MMA career in the UFC on TUF 10. His wins came against Marcus Jones, Kimbo Slice and Joey Beltran. The latter of those fights was a complete slugfest that surprisingly went the distance. He has cement block hands, a freakishly strong chin and sneaky good cardio that is surely aided from a prior stint as professional football player. Tim Hague is 12-4 in his career but just 1-3 in the UFC. He's currently on a two-fight win streak in a Canadian promotion but neither of the fighters he beat would even sniff a UFC undercard. It's kind of shocking that Hague is on the main card of a major promotion but it's likely that he's just a stepping stone for Mitrione who has all kinds of momentum behind him. Both fighters should come out strong looking for the knockout and the man they call "Meathead" should get the better of the exchanges. With that in mind it doesn't make sense to lay over 2-1 on him but getting plus money on Mitrione to win via TKO/KO certainly offers value. Play: Mitrione by KO/TKO +132 (Risking 2 units).
Pat Barry (by TKO/KO) -110 over Joey Beltran
Pat Barry had a significant amount of hype following him into his latest bout against Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic at UFC 115. He rocked "Cro Cop" a few times early on but showed him way too much respect in not going in for the kill. He was widely criticized for going too easy on his opponent that day and won't make that mistake again. It should be noted that Barry broke a hand and foot in that match. Barry sports lethal body kicks and has a striking advantage in this bout. Joey Beltran is certainly no slouch but he's still a major step down the ladder. He was able to take the aforementioned Mitrione to the brink but his highly motivated opponent tonight will likely be more than he can handle. After his missed opportunities last time out expect Barry to come out firing, hungry for an early knockout or ground and pound victory. Much like the previous play, it's not prudent to lay over 2-1 on Barry straight up but it does make sense laying a dime on what he does best. All five of this professional MMA victories have come by TKO/KO and expect him to do the same tonight. Play: Barry (by TKO/KO) –110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Mark Hominick (by decision) +133 over George Roop
Mark Hominick will have a date with Jose Aldo for UFC Featherweight Championship on his home soil in Toronto if he beats Roop tonight. It's usually very dangerous to back any team or individual that might be looking past their current opponent but this won't be a problem with Hominick. He won't even address the fact that a title shot is waiting in the wings. He's been surgical lately in his fights and don't expect tonight to be any different. He's won his last four and six of his last seven. George Roop comes into this fight on a high note after an impressive head kick KO victory over Chan Sung Jung but he's been inconsistent with a record of 3-3-1 in his last seven bouts. He will have a ridiculous height and more importantly reach advantage but that shouldn't be enough for him to pull off this upset. However, with a title shot on the line don't expect Hominick to finish this fight inside the distance. Both fighters are also very familiar with one another which further emphasizes the fight going to a decision, as they will likely try to stay away from each other's strengths. Hominick is more well-rounded and very precise on his feet. Expect him to find the right distance and pick Roop apart all night long. Play: Mark Hominick (by decision) +133 (Risking 2 units).
Willamy Freire -105 over Waylon Lowe
Willamy Freire is making his UFC debut but is no stranger to the sport. He is 17-3 in his MMA career and is currently riding an 11-fight win streak. During that time he managed to win the Shooto Welterweight title, which he also defended twice before vacating it and signing with the UFC. He comes into this event not as a shot in the dark but rather an evolving fighter that has a bright future ahead of him. Waylon Lowe comes into this fight off a victory after narrowly defeating Steve Lopez by split-decision at UFC 119. Lopez is 0-2 in the UFC and don't expect to see him on a card anytime in the near future. Prior to that contest, Lowe lost via TKO in the first round to Melvin Guillard who is featured in the main event on this night. Lowe was submitted twice in lesser promotions and that plays right into Freire's wheelhouse with nine of his 17 victories coming by way of submission. Freire made his MMA debut at the tender age of 18 and all three of his losses came before he was 20. In today's climate it wouldn't be unreasonable for the loser of this fight to get a pink slip and it's hard to imagine that the UFC would put Freire in a spot where that would happen. It might be a while before you see this price on the man they call "Chiquerim" on an undercard. Expect Freire to continue his impressive winning streak and make his UFC splash a winning one. Play: Willamy Freire –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
OC Dooley
Boston College / Florida State Over 137
With Florida State coming off an emotional midweek road victory against rival Miami, odds are that the visiting side is going to be competitive tonight as the Seminoles are in a classic “letdown” spot. Considering that Boston College enters tonight ranked next-to-last in their conference in field goal percentage defense, the Golden Eagles need to attempt an UPTEMPO pace and they certainly have the field general to do that. Boston College point guard Reggie Jackson ranks #2 in the Atlantic Coast Conference in points, assists and three-point shooting percentage from long range. Not only has Jackson reached the 20-point plateau in three consecutive outings, he also just joined the Eagles 1,000-point career club. Florida State also has an effective point guard Derwin Kitchen who ranks in the Top-10 in conference assists. Both Kitchen and Seminoles 6’9” star Chris Singleton struggled in the upset at Miami midweek which makes them “undervalued”. On Wednesday Singleton shot only 2-of-13 from the field, while Kitchen was held to just 7 total points so they both will welcome a weak defensive opponent this evening. Here is a 66-PERCENT SYSTEM (85-43 past five years with a posted total in the 130’s) which takes poor pressure defenses like Boston College who force on average less than 15 turnovers per contest OVER the total, when off consecutive contests where the defense forced the opposition to commit “8 or less” turnovers. As mentioned throughout this analysis Florida State won on the road against rival Miami in a low scoring 55-53 contest which has forced the oddsmakers to keep tonight’s total in relative check and I am taking full advantage