Robert Ferringo
Seton Hall (+9) over Xavier
Very quietly Seton Hall has started to play some very good basketball, and they are a team that will at least make a push for an NCAA Tournament berth over the last month-plus of the season. There isn't nearly the drop-off from the top tier in the Big East to the second tier this season, and teams like Creighton and Seton Hall have already proven they can play with the big boys in the league. Seton Hall only lost by nine at Villanova and they beat Providence badly on the road last Saturday. Kevin Willard seems to have harnessed some of his good young talent, and guard Isaiah Whitehead is one of the best players that no one talks about. I think Seton Hall matches up really well with Xavier. And the X-Men, who were just slaughtering people early in the season, are due to have the books catch up with them. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and 12-5 ATS on the season. Eventually they are going to get priced out of the market, and this could be a perfect example. The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and I think that Seton Hall makes this one a game.
Strike Point Sports
Kentucky (-5.5) over Vanderbilt
The Wildcats have disappointed this year relative to their lofty expectations. But at home following a road loss at Auburn last weekend, UK needs a response. Just the same, Vanderbilt has been pretty poor away from its Nashville home-court advantage. The Commodores have lost all four road games this year, while Kentucky have maintained a perfect 10-0 record in Lexington. Even UK's last home win against Mississippi State over a week ago was an underwhelming result (six-point win), so I expect a renewed sense of interest from this young team that can't afford many more slip ups if they want to maintain a high seed for the NCAA Tournament. Go with the home chalk and Kentucky in this one.
Jim Feist
Lakers vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -11
The second of a back to back spot for the Lakers after hosting the Spurs last night. LA is short on defense and depth, 14-39-1 ATS against the Western Conference and 6-17 ATS vs. the NBA Northwest. Portland is home and rested, winning 4 of 6. The Blazers are 5-0 ATS playing on two days rest and 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. And the Lakers are 15-38 ATS in the last 53 meetings, including 7-20 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Portland.
Brandon Lee
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -5½
This is not only a great spot to jump on Kansas State, but a perfect spot to fade Oklahoma State. The Wildcats are going to be extremely motivated when they take the floor on Saturday, as they come in having lost 2 straight and are just 1-5 in conference play. This is a much better team than that record would lead on. They have two overtime losses to West Virginia and Baylor, a 3-point defeat at Texas and defeats to two of the best teams in the country in ISU and Oklahoma. As for the Cowboys, they are getting way too much respect off their shocking 86-67 win at home against Kansas as a 9-point dog. Oklahoma State has already lost by 17 at West Virginia and Baylor (0-3 true road games). Cowboys are also just 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 road games against a team with a winning home record, while K-State is 7-1 ATS last 8 after a non-cover and 4-0 ATS in last 4 off a SU loss.
DAVE COKIN
NEBRASKA OMAHA at ORAL ROBERTS
PLAY: NEBRASKA OMAHA +1
One of the day’s more entertaining games could well be this Summit League clash between the Mavericks and Golden Eagles. The game figures to be very fast-paced and as the betting line suggests, this should be highly competitive.
I’m looking at the Omaha side as I like the way they match up with Oral Roberts from a categorical standpoint. The most important edge to me is ball security, which in a potential racehorse duel, could be really key. The Mavericks take better care of the ball than do the Golden Eagles, and they’re also stronger on the defensive side of this equation.
Oral Roberts is dangerous as they’re very adept at knocking down the three-ball, although the Eagles are by no means solely dependent on the long shots. But that’s clearly the one big advantage for ORU, as the visitors are one of the poorest teams in all of D1 on three-point accuracy. But I think it’s important to note that the Mavericks are well aware of this shortcoming and do an excellent job of getting good looks from closer range. UNO is nailing very impressive 53% of their deuces, and they’ve actually gotten even better in that regard since conference play got underway.
Oral Roberts had won three straight prior to losing in lopsided fashion on Thursday against South Dakota State. It should also be noted that the two losses prior to the modest winning streak were without Obi Emegano, so in spite of the bad loss against the Jackrabbits, ORU is in okay form.
But the Mavericks have been even better. They’ve won seven of their last eight, with the only defeat a game in which they just came out really flat against a shorthanded IPFW entry and fell way behind. Even in that game, however, UNO came roaring back and forced OT before falling to the Mastadons.
This is the first of a critical two-game conference trip for Omaha. Next up is a visit to South Dakota State in a game likely to have big ramifications as far as the league race is concerned. As for this game, it’s looking to be anything but easy. Nevertheless, the data I give the most weight to favors the visitors, and I don’t see Oral Roberts being able to successfully discourage the Mavericks from forcing their preferred tempo. I’ll side with Nebraska-Omaha as the smallest of dogs tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Michigan vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan +2
The Wolverines have won all 5 meetings against Nebraska and are 4-0 on Saturdays this year. They have a solid 38 RPI Scale rank and have won 4 of 5 vs teams like Nebraska that are ranked from 50 to 200. Nebraska shocked Michigan St in their last game as a 14 point dog in their last game which sets them up in a play against system for big dog winners. The Huskers have lost 8 of 12 vs winning teams and 6 of 7 vs top 100 teams. Look for Michigan to get the cash today.
Brian Hay
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -5½
Kentucky's 14-4 this season and have won three of their last four games. The Wildcats are 10-0 at home and 4-2 in SEC play. Kentucky did lose on the road to Auburn last weekend. Vanderbilt comes into this contest 11-7 on the season and they have won their last three games. The Commodores are only 1-4 on the road and 3-3 in SEC play. Kentucky's last home game was a lackluster 6 point win against Mississippi State. The Wild Cats are 10-4 against the spread in SEC competition while Vanderbilt is only 2-4 against the spread in SEC play and 0-4 in game following a ATS win. Kentucky gets the easy win and cover here.
Mike Lundin
Milwaukee vs. New Orleans
Play: New Orleans -5½
The New Orleans Pelicans are playing some good solid basketball again and they've been rewarded with the win in four of their last five games. They shot 53.5% from the field in Thursday's 115-99 win against the Pistons and Anthony Davis has averaged 33.5 points in his past two games. Davis averaged 31.5 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in last season's two meetings with the Bucks and the Pels have covered the spread in four of the last five when hosting Milwaukee. The Bucks had a three-game winning streak come to an end when they lost 102-98 at Houston last night, and even though they're usually fairly strong in back-to-back situations I think they'll be in for a tough game here.
Scott Spreitzer
Michigan vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan +1½
Nebraska has won four straight conference games, including a 72-71 win in East Lansing last time out. The Huskers caught the Spartans at the right time. Michigan State was coming off a one-point loss to Wisconsin where they were called for 28 personal fouls. Tom Izzo reportedly told his players to stay away from potential ticky-tack fouls against Nebraska and they obviously took the instructions to heart, playing very little defense. Nebraska, (Shavon Shields in particular), attacked the basket all night long and pulled the upset as a double-digit underdog. Having said that, if Michigan State had a better night at the foul line, (made just 12 of 21), they likely win that game. The Huskers also beat three Big-10 bottom-feeders during the winning streak, including Rutgers, Minnesota, and Illinois. We went against Michigan last time out and cashed with 16-point underdog Minnesota. The Wolverines won, but failed to cover. We felt they were in a tough spot coming off of games against Purdue, Maryland, and Iowa. Michigan has had no trouble with the Huskers, winning five straight meetings by an average margin of 15 ppg. I don't believe they'll win by that many points, the Huskers are getting better, but Nebraska is still a very young basketball team and they still might be in a celebratory mood. Michigan is one of the top shooting teams in CBB, ranked 17th in FG percentage (49%) and 8th from behind the arc (41.3%). We note this because Tim Miles' Husker teams have covered just four of 17 against teams that shoot at least 48%. They've also covered just 10 of their last 32 against teams playing better than .600 basketball.
Jesse Schule
Chicago Bulls vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play:Chicago Bulls +11
The Cavs are sitting in first place in the Eastern Conference, but that hasn't stopped them from firing head coach David Blatt. They have named Tyronn Lue as the interim coach, and he'll take over when the Cavs host Chicago as a double digit favorite on Saturday. The news has sent shockwaves throughout the league, and not everyone is happy to hear it: "I'm embarrassed for our league that something like this can happen like this," Rick Carlisle said. "It's just bizarre. ... It just leaves you with a bit of an empty feeling, because Blatt's a great guy, and he did a great job there." Ironically, the writing was on the wall since last year's playoffs, and perhaps Blatt's lowest point came in a win in Game 4 of the East Semifinals versus the Bulls. LeBron hit the game winner at the buzzer, and then later told the media that he completely ignored Blatt's designed play for the final possession: "I was supposed to take the ball out," James said. "I told Coach there was no way I'm taking the ball out unless I could shoot it over the backboard and go in. So I told him, 'Have somebody else take the ball out.' The play that was drawn up, I scratched it. I just told Coach, 'Just give me the ball. We're either going to go into overtime or I'm going to win it for us.'" There's no doubt who calls the shots in Cleveland, and it isn't Tyronn Lue. Under David Blatt the Cavs showed plenty of discipline, with the best scoring defense in the Eastern Conference. We could see a change of philosophy under Lue, with more emphasis on the offense. The Cavs offense was well below average in 2015, but they've been one of the league's highest scoring teams since January 1st. It's no coincidence that Kyrie Irving returned on January 2nd. The Bulls have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 visits to Cleveland, and not one of those games saw a line as big as we see tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Portland at Saint Mary's
Pick: Saint Mary's
Normally might be a bit reluctant to back Saint Mary's after games vs. bitter rival Gonzaga. But the Gaels are unlikely to overlook visiting Portland, as Randy Bennett's team has a score to settle after the unexpected WCC Tourney ouster courtesy of the Pilots last March. Portland's preference to go uptempo plays right into the hands of an SMC squad with the nation's-best 53.4% FG shooting and 44.7% three-balls (third nationally), with Aussie soph G Emmett Near converting an astounding 59% from tripleville! Note that the Gaels covered their first 12 of the season on the board prior to recent games vs. Pepperdine and Pacific.
Brandon Shively
Pepperdine +3
Two things that I know. BYU is not a good road team and Pepperdine gave Saint Mary's their lone loss in conference play. This is also BYU's fourth consecutive road game. They are 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS, but the Cougars loss was a 9.5 point favorite at Portland and although they beat Marymount by 11 on Thursday, the Cougars were down ten points at the half. Fischer and Collinsworth played 39 and 40 minutes. I question their legs for this game. BYU doesn't have a lot of depth either. Five guys played 30 or minutes on Thursday night. It's basically a six man rotation with a seventh guy playing five or six minutes. Fischer has played 116 of the 120 minutes in the last three road games. Collinsworth has played 76 of the last 80 minutes. Fatigue could easily be a factor. Pepperdine is 4-0 SU at home in conference play and a PERFECT 8-0 overall at home. They have two seniors and two juniors starting. Pepperdine has three guys shooting over 40% from the three point line. Their top 3 scorers shoot 71% or better from the foul line. Pepperdine is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. They have won the last two at home as a 2.5 and 6.5 point dog. They were an 11 point dog in 2013 and only lost by two points.
Dave Essler
Texas Tech +4
I know - it's not easy these days, and we were ON these guys last week. I guess that means we SHOULD be on them today, but I can't. They are the worst Ft shooting team I have ever seen. Bad travel spot being at Oklahoma then home now back to the State of Texas. T-Tech played Kansas and Baylor tough at home, and they beat Texas at home. T-Tech is shooting 75% from the line in conference play and they've got the third best two-point defensive efficiency rate in B12 play - that's where WVU likes to score, inside. WVU is 9th in the Conference in turnovers - T-Tech is fourth in creating them. So fading WVU who is shooting 62% from the line and 28% from behind the arc in Conference play.
Will Rogers
Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks managed only 88 points as they had a three-game winning streak come to an end in Thursday's loss at Sacramento. They're likely to rebound with more points and a win when they visit the lowly Phoenix Suns Saturday night, and I think this game will be a blowout.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. The Suns' Defense - The Suns have allowed an average of 111.2 points per game through six consecutive defeats. Their 106.9 opponent points per game this season is the second worst mark in the NBA, better than only the Kings' 107.4.
2. Situational - The Suns have failed to cover in five of their last six games when playing on one day's rest. They are no longer in a position to compete this year, and have little motivation to be competitive.
3. X-Factor - The Suns are dealing with plenty of injuries, and have five players listed as questionable for tonight's game.
Jimmy Boyd
Georgia -2
The Bulldogs are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Razorbacks. Georgia is 3-3 inside SEC play and come in off a 60-57 win at Missouri, which they led by as many as 16-points in the 2nd half. Now the Bulldogs return home looking to make a statement after getting embarrassed last time out on their home floor by Texas A&M (47-79).
Arkansas comes into this game off back-to-back losses and this looks to a difficult spot for the Razorbacks to bounce back. Arkansas laid it all on the line in Thursday's home game against Kentucky and now have to make the quick turnaround to face a Georgia team that is going to be out for revenge after losing both meetings last year, including a painful 75-79 loss at home.
This is not the same caliber a Razorbacks' team as last year and they have really struggled on the road. Arkansas is 1-7 away from home with their only road win coming against arguably the worst team in the SEC in Missouri.
Razorbacks are a mere 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games when listed as an underdog of 3-points or less, 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games off a conference home loss and 9-21 ATS in their last 20 road games off 2 straight conference losses. Bulldogs are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 SEC games and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after playing their previous game on the road.