Nelly
Xavier - over Seton Hall
Xavier has lost just twice this season and one of those misses came at home Tuesday night against Georgetown. They could catch Seton Hall in a favorable spot as the Pirates took highly rated Villanova down to the wire late Wednesday night in a 72-71 defeat. Seton Hall has lost three of the last four games after starting the season 12-2 and this offense is hard to rely on. Seton Hall has been a terrible free throw shooting team and a team that is struggling with turnovers which makes sense as one of the youngest teams in the nation. Handling the near miss vs. a national power in a recent revenge spot could be a tall order for this squad while facing a Musketeers team that looks like a national contender. Xavier had won its previous nine home games by at least nine points each before falling on Tuesday and after the first loss of the season Chris Mack's team responded well with a 19-point home win over Butler. A sold out crowd is expected in Cincinnati as Seton Hall traveled early to beat the weather, meaning an even shorter turnaround this week after the late night spotlight game Wednesday at home. Seton Hall upset Xavier the last time these teams met so this should be a key game for the hosts with focus at a high level in this critical situation.
David Banks
Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears
Pick: Oklahoma Sooners-1.5
It is likely the toughest and deepest conference in the country. There are six potential NCAA tournament teams in the Big 12 including second-ranked Oklahoma and No. 22 Baylor. The two teams square off Saturday in Waco. Both teams are 4-1 in conference play and will need all the wins they can get. Baylor (14-3) has lost three games all to ranked opponents. The Bears and Oklahoma have both fallen to No. 1 Kansas. Both teams also like to score. Baylor averages a little over 80 points a game while the Sooners are fourth in the nation in scoring averaging 86.3 per game.
The nation’s best player just may be Oklahoma guard Buddy Hield. The 6-4 Hield averages 26 points per game, second in the nation, but he doesn’t do it all himself. Jordan Woodard, Isaiah Cousins, and Ryan Spangler all average in double figures for the Sooners. Baylor might want to take a page out of No. 11 West Virginia’s playbook. The Mountaineers held Hield to 17 points on 5-of-11 shooting and held the Sooners to 70 points in a 70-68 loss.
The Bears are led by a pair of 6-8 seniors in Taurean Prince (14.8 ppg) and Rico Gathers (12.9 ppg, 10.8 rpg). Gathers is a big body (275 pounds) who takes up space inside. It will be up to Al Freeman and Lester Medford to defend the perimeter. Baylor is experienced, but defending the nation’s best player is going to present a huge challenge.
Jeff Saad
Long Beach State atCal Riverside
Play: Long Beach State
Long Beach State has played a brutal schedule and now with things getting easier they blasted UCSB the last game, 77-67 as a dog. The 49ers are on a 9-3-2 ATS run, including 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. UC Riverside has lost 6 of 7 games and the Highlanders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Mr. Vegas
Detroit vs Denver
Play: Over
A pair of rested teams and Denver likes to run at opponents in the thin Mountain air. Neither team is strong on defense, with Denver ranked 25th in field goal shooting defense, Detroit 21st. Detroit is on a 5-1 run over the total, 12-4 over the total on one day of rest. Denver is on a 5-0 run over the total and 10-4 over following a straight up loss. And when these teams meet the over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, including 5-1 over the total in this floor. Play Detroit/Denver Over
JACK JONES
Georgia -2
The Georgia Bulldogs (10-6) have taken care of business at home this season. They are 9-3 on their home floor and have certainly been a much better home team over the years. I like their chances of covering this slim 2-point spread today against the Razorbacks.
Arkansas (9-9) is in a rebuilding year, having to break in five new starters this season. The Razorbacks have really struggled on the road this season, going 1-7 away from home while giving up an average of 77.9 points per game. This young team just hasn't handled adversity on the road well at all.
This is a bad spot for the Razorbacks, who are coming off a nationally televised game on ESPN against the Kentucky Wildcats on Thursday. Look for them to suffer a hangover from that 66-80 defeat. They have only had one day off in between games, while the Bulldogs have had two days off to get ready for the Razorbacks.
Arkansas is 18-41 ATS in its last 59 road games with a line of +3 to -3. Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. The Bulldogs are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 SEC games. The Razorbacks are 29-60 ATS in their last 89 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Baylor Bears plus the points at home over the Oklahoma Sooners. At the time of this writing, the Bears are catching two points in Vegas and offshore.
While all the talk in the very talented Big 12 Conference is all about Oklahoma and Kansas, the Baylor Bears have quietly put together a 15-3 record including a perfect 13-0 home mark. They're also now on top of the conference with a 5-1 record.
Oklahoma returns from Ames, Iowa after a phenomenal 3-point shooting night... and still a big fat 2 in the loss column.
I gave you Iowa State Monday night as my premium selection that night and I was close to giving you Baylor today as a premium selection, but there were a few things that I found in my other play that pushed this one back to my free selection.
Still, the Sooners are in the midst of a very tough stretch of schedule and Waco is no easy place to play.
Take Baylor plus the points as your free play of the day.
4* BAYLOR
Brad Wilton
It's "go with" Northwestern playing at "go with" Indiana, as the Wildcats own a 5-1-1 against the spread mark on the road this season, while the Hoosiers own a current 11-game winning streak, and are 8-3 against the spread at Assembly Hall this year!
Which way to go? Well, considering the Wildcats may be reeling just a little having just got dumped in overtime at highly-regarded Maryland - Northwestern's 4 loss in their last 6 games - perhaps Chris Collins' team may still be stinging from that heartbreaker.
Either way, things are percolating for the Hoosiers who just crushed Illinois by 34 points! Indy has also taken 2 of the last 3 series meetings straight up and against the spread.
Sure, the number is tempting to back the dog and their 5-1-1 road spread mark, but I will continue to look for the Indiana express to post another double-digit win and cover.
Indiana the call.
2* INDIANA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Seton Hall plus the points at Xavier.
I like the generous points to work with the Pirates as they play at the Cintas Center against the Musketeers of Xavier.
Chris Mack's "X-Men" were stunned by Georgetown earlier this week at home, and while they are in revenge from last season's loss in North Jersey, I will still take my chances with this live underdog.
The Hall nearly upset Villanova earlier this week at home, losing by just a point, but they did cover in that game, and they have covered in 7 of their last 9 games overall.
With 3 wins and covers in the last 4 series meetings, it is obvious that the Pirates present match up issues for Xavier.
Tough one today, as I see this one going back and forth all afternoon long.
Take the points with Seton Hall to keep it close.
4* SETON HALL
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Gonzaga (-12) at PACIFIC
The STORYLINE in this game today - Gonzaga returns to the scene of Kyle Wiltjer's 45-point game last season, and the Bulldogs would love nothing more than to put their last game behind them. They lost to Saint Mary’s for the first time since 2012 in Moraga, breaking an eight-game winning streak over Saint Mary's. Tonight they will avenge the setback with a blowout win over Pacific.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is series domination. Gonzaga has won five in a row and seven of eight overall against Pacific, with the lone loss coming nearly 40 years ago, in 1977 in Stockton, Calif. The confidence level will be running high, since last season at Pacific, Wiltjer produced one of the biggest games in program history, scoring 45 points on 15-for-22 shooting.
BOTTOM LINE is - I know Pacific has won three of its last four games, including a pair of West Coast Conference wins over Portland and Loyola Marymount, and since starting the season 1-8 the Tigers are on a 5-4 run, but they're running up against a hostile team that was picked to win the WCC regular season title by the league’s coaches receiving all nine possible first-place votes. Gonzaga wins this big.
5* GONZAGA
Chris Jordan
My free play comes from the Pac 12 Conference tonight, as I like the UCLA Bruins to cover the number in Eugene, against the Oregon Ducks. Both have become extremely competitive teams, of late, and I'm not exactly sure the mindsets of the oddsmakers here.
While Oregon (15-4, 4-2 Pac 12) is sitting comfortably in a second place tie with Arizona and USC, the Bruins are a game back along with Colorado, Utah, California and Stanford.
UCLA (12-7, 3-3) just won at Oregon State on Wednesday, when the Bruins caught +3 points and took an 82-73 victory outright. The Ducks have split their last two games, including a loss at Colorado. They did win their last game, an 89-81 decision over USC, but this one figures to be tougher.
The Bruins have the fourth-best scoring offense in the league, scoring 80.2 points per game. With Steve Alford at the helm, they play with a certain swagger and will have plenty of confidence tonight.
5* UCLA
Scott Delaney
I want you to play Idaho as your free winner tonight, catching a single point at Montana State, after winning at Montana, 63-58, on Thursday night. The victory was the first for the Vandals in Missoula since the 1999-2000 season. That alone should provide confidene for this game.
Idaho (12-7, 4-2 Big Sky) won both meetings against Montana State (8-11, 3-4) last season.
I've been impressed by Victor Sanders, who continued his streak of impressive performances, pouring in 27 points on 6-of-10 shooting against Montana. Idaho trailed at the half, but showed resilience by opening the second half with a huge run to take a commanding lead en route to the win.
Idaho is now 4-2 in the Big Sky, and its first three games taking place on the road. The Vandals' comfort zone is seemingly on the highway, so I'm not worried about the travel factor here.
Take the road team.
5* IDAHO
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is New Orleans as the home chalk over Milwaukee.
The Bucks saw their modest 3 game winning streak come to a halt last night in Houston, and now they must face a Pelicans team that they have had little success against of late.
The Pels have bested the Bucks 5 straight times, and in 8 of the last 9 series meetings overall! New Orleans has also been able to cover the impost in 7 of those 9 series meetings.
The Pelicans have been playing much better basketball after their nightmare start to the season, as New Orleans enters Saturday's action with 4 wins over their last 5 games.
With the night idle, look for the rested Pelicans to add another win to their season total.
New Orleans over Milwaukee the call for Saturday.
3* NEW ORLEANS
Bruce Marshall
Gonzaga -12
The Zags have not offered great spread value this season, but they did prove worth the investment off of their last bitter loss, when smashing USD last Saturday after losing a 1-point heartbreaker to BYU. After losing at the wire vs. Saint Mary's on Thursday, expect a simialr scenario this afternoon at Stockton vs. beatable UOP. The Tigers have played a bit better lately but do not have a matchup against the Zags' Kyle Wiltjer. Remember that Mark Few's teams won both meetings vs. UOP last season by a combined 43 points.
OC Dooley
Oklahoma / Baylor Over 152
The posted totals in the most recent pair of clashes in this “series” (133 and 134’) were much lower than today which gives us an indication of the offensive firepower for both sides. While Oklahoma has a Top-10 ranking in adjusted “offensive efficiency” their defense earlier this week yielded a season WORST 1.19 points per possession. While Sooners guard Jordan Woodard leads the conference in THREE POINT shooting efficiency (54.8 percent) Baylor guard Lester Medford has an excellent “assists ratio” of 37-percent. Baylor big man Rico Gathers (4.6 offensive rebounds per game) constantly has given his team “second chance” scoring opportunties. Dating all the way back to the 1997 campign when cast as a “short” home underdog of three-or-less points Baylor is UNDEFEATED for the totals player going 7-0 OVER the number.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON -16.5 over South Florida
We have won six of our last eight free winners including another outright underdog winner last night on Wright State. Today, we lay the lumber with Houston. Typically we would be concerned about the Cougars looking past the lowly Bulls and not being completely focused, but since they enter this game losers of three straight games after winning eight of nine, we're confident they will be focused and ready to put forth their best effort. Houston has been very good on its home court going 18-8 ATS the last three years, including 5-1 this season and they'll have plenty of offensive firepower to cruise past a South Florida team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games and is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Bulls have been held to under 60 points eight times already this season and rank 340th in the nation in scoring.