Wunderdog
San Diego @ Loyola
Pick: San Diego +6
It has been tough for San Diego and Loyola Marymount to mount a challenge in the West Coast Conference, as St. Mary's and Gonzaga are always at the top of the standings. This game presents an opportunity for a win for both clubs. Loyola Marymount started the season at 7-4, but a lot of cupcakes have inflated a record that is still just 9-10, as they are just 2-6 in their last eight games. The biggest issue is in the eight game slide, they have allowed every opponent to shoot at least 41% against them, after holding almost all their early opponents to under 41%. As a result, the Toreros should find some room to score and stay in the game as a moderate dog. San Diego has shot the ball poorly, but have been against some strong teams, and did connect on 60.4% vs. Portland. They own a big win vs. San Diego State.
Otto Sports
Boise State at Wyoming
Play: Under 135.5
There aren't many players as important to their team as Wyoming's Josh Adams who will sit tonight's game against Boise State due to a suspension. Adams is currently fifth in the country in percentage of possessions used (36%) and seventh in percentage of team shots (35%). And he's gotten to the free throw line 172 times. They next closest Cowboy has taken only 64. So here we have a team that plays slow and struggles to score playing without its best offensive weapon who happens to be the only senior on one of the youngest teams in the country. I'm a believer in the "step up" mentality of a team playing its first game after losing a key player but there is no question the Pokes' offense will suffer without him. Boise State comes in with some really good offensive numbers but they've yet to play some of the stronger defensive teams in the MWC including Wyoming who ranks third in defensive efficiency. The Broncos have yet to face New Mexico (5th) and UNLV (2nd) and were held to 53 on their home floor against San Diego State. Without Adams look for Wyoming to rely on its defense and to stay within striking distance of the road favorite. Play this one under.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – FLORIDA STATE (-2) over Pittsburgh
Both of these teams are coming off a loss, but NC State’s 17 point loss as a 9 ½ point home favorite is a lot worse than Florida State’s loss to a very good Louisville team. In fact, that loss sets up Pitt in a very negative 9-59-3 ATS subset of a 53-159-5 ATS situation. I’d love to play that angle but my ratings only favor Florida State by 1 point and I’d prefer not to play a game as a Best Bet with what I consider negative line value. However, this situation is one of my best and has continued to win consistently since I discovered it 8 years ago. I’ll consider FSU an opinion at -2 and I’d take Florida State in a 1-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Vegas Butcher
Atlanta Hawks -12
Atlanta is off a loss here and I’ll back them against what could the worst team in the league (yes even worse than Philly). Phoenix is already without Bledsoe, but they’ll also be without Knight, Leuer, and Price. In addition, Tucker, Morris, and Teletovic are all hurt and listed as questionable. The Suns are so short-handed that in the last game they started two centers, Chandler and Len, with both logging 35+ minutes each. I love the chances of a blowout in this one.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Aaron Martinez vs. Sammy Vasquez
Play: Aaron Martinez +525
Aaron Martinez is defending his home turf! Aaron is from the streets of East LA, and has heart. Aaron Martinez puts a lot of pressure on his opponents. He puts his heart in his fights, and is very aggressive. Vasquez will struggle, since he tends to stay flat on the feet. Aaron will move forward with his high octane combinations. Aaron's aggressive punching is dangerous, and we saw it against Guerrero, when he dropped him. Aaron did lose the fight, but i thought he won. I don't expect this fight to be shady, since i don't see any red flags.
SAM MARTIN
Maryland vs. Michigan State
Play: Maryland +3½
As recently as a few weeks ago, this matchup of Maryland vs. Michigan State would have been viewed as not only one of the biggest games in the Big Ten this season, but in all of College Basketball. Both teams spent much of the season ranked in the Top Five, with Michigan State holding on the #1 spot at one point. But lackluster play in conference has put a damper on both teams, with neither side bringing any real confidence or momentum into this matchup.
Spartans are listed as the favorite thanks almost entirely to home court advantage, but that hasn't helped them in either of their last two home games having lost outright against Iowa (as a nine-point favorite) and Nebraska (as a 15-point favorite) - also losing on the road at Wisconsin in between those games. Maryland hasn't been much better, losing at Wisconsin a few games back and most recently beating Northwestern at home by a slim six-point margin (as a 12-point favorite). We do like fading a free-falling Michigan State team here as the favorite, even on their home court, noting Maryland has been better in points scored, points allowed, offense and defensive shooting percentages, and record in Big Ten play compared to the Spartans. This one stays close, but Maryland wins outright with a late surge!
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Arizona State vs. Stanford
Play: Arizona State +2
Small road dog here which is often a situation I like to investigate and, in this case, I certainly like what I see. Arizona State won their most recent game with Stanford but that was a regular season match-up last March. The Sun Devils haven't forgotten the fact that they've lost each of their last two visits to Stanford as well as being knocked out of the Pac-12 Tournament by the Cardinal two years ago in mid-March. Needless to say, Arizona State will bring their "A game" tonight. The Sun Devils are a solid 8-5 ATS in their games against teams with winning record this season. Stanford has lost 2 of their last 3 home games and in their last 4 games they've only had one win by more than two points. The Cardinal defense has been struggling and they now take on an Arizona State team that has covered 2 of their last 3 games despite being somewhat snakebit on the scoreboard. In fact, the Sun Devils have truly been "right there" ATS in five of their last six games and "right there" against a struggling team like Stanford means that ASU should be able to get the outright win tonight as the Cardinal have been held to 58 points or less in 3 of their past 5 games.
DAVE PRICE
Hornets/Knicks Under 198.5
The New York Knicks and Charlotte Hornets will both be exhausted tonight. Both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after playing on Friday. The Hornets will be especially tired because they played an overtime game in Orlando last night, and this will be their 6th game in 9 days. Because both teams are tired, I look for the tempo of this game to be played at a snail's pace. That has been the case when these teams get together, anyways. The Hornets and Knicks have combined for 196, 188, 147 and 192 points in their last 4 meetings, respectively. That's an average of 180.8 combined points per game, which is nearly 18 points less than this 198.5-point total. The UNDER is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
Larry Ness
Maryland at Michigan State
Prediction: Michigan State
Michigan State dropped from No. 4 to No. 11 in the latest AP poll (released this past Monday), after losing twice the previous week. Things only got worse for the Spartans this past Wednesday, as they lost 72-71 at home vs Nebraska, as 14 1/2-point favorites. All of a sudden, the team that was ranked No. 1 less than a month ago is on the verge of dropping four straight for the first time since Jan 27-Feb 7, 2007! Visiting East Lansing will be No. 7 Maryland, which is 17-2 (6-1 in the Big Ten). The Terps have been ranked as high as No. 2 and entered the season as the Big Ten favorite.
College GameDay will be in East Lansing ahead of Saturday night's matchup, as both teams try to pick up a signature victory. The Spartans (16-4, 3-4) set a school record by winning their first 13 games and ascended to the top of the rankings before losing at now-No. 9 Iowa on Jan 7 without injured star Denzel Valentine. However, Michigan State is just 1-3 since the senior All-America candidate returned, getting routed by the Hawkeyes again at home before falling 77-76 at Wisconsin on Sunday and 72-71 at home against Nebraska on Wednesday. "Don't blame my players, blame me," coach Tom Izzo said. "I'm the one that's got to get us to play. We're going through a little mid-life crisis here, and we're going to find a way to get out of it."
Maryland just suffered a disappointing road defeat 70-67 at Michigan on Jan 12 and most recently struggled to get past an inferior opponent at home, scoring only 17 points in the second half of Tuesday's 62-56 overtime win against Northwestern. Freshman center Diamond Stone (6-11) has provided the Terrapins with a strong inside scorer, as he has 12 consecutive double-digit outings while averaging 13.5 points and 5.5 rebounds on the season, shooting 59.9 percent from the floor. Sophomore point guard Melo Trimble leads Maryland in scoring (13.9) and assists (5.7) while 6-9 junior forward Robert Carter Jr. averages 13.2 points and a team-best 7.0 rebounds. Gritty 6-7 senior forward Jake Layman (10.9-5.5) and senior guard Rasheed Sulaimon (10.4), who escaped from Duke, also score in double figures for a team shooting 50.9 percent from the floor, a figure that ranks fifth nationally.
The Spartans' slump began shortly after the return of do-everything guard Denzel Valentine from a four-game absence due to a knee injury and the player averaging 18.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists said his team needs to play with more intelligence. "We need to come out and be ready to play," Valentine told reporters. "Maryland is a great team and has good players. We just can't make late-game mistakes. We've been playing well enough the last few games. We just haven't played smart enough." Senior guard Bryn Forbes ranks second on the squad in scoring (13.1) but is averaging just 5.7 points on 5-of-22 shooting during the three-game losing streak. More bad news comes MSU’s way in that Valentine has averaged 5.3 points while shooting 23.1 percent, including 2 of 18 from behind the arc, in three games against Maryland. He had just three points in the last meeting, when the Spartans overcame a 16-point deficit for a 62-58 win in the semifinals of last year's Big Ten tournament.
My head tells me Maryland but my “gut” says I CAN’T expect Izzo to lose FOUR in a row. I’m taking the Spartans.
SPORTS WAGERS
GEORGIA TECH +6 over Louisville
Louisville is 15-3 overall, they’re 4-1 in the conference and they’re ranked #17 in the nation. One of our favorite angles is to fade over-ranked and overpriced teams when they’re favored on the road against an unranked opponent. Louisville’s out-of-conference schedule ranked 310 out of 351 Division I schools. Most of those games for Louisville were nothing more than a glorified practice but that’s what Rick Pitino does. Pitino schedules soft games against weak opponents to skew the numbers, skew his team’s record and get his team noticed so that when Selection Sunday rolls around, the Cardinals get a better seeding than they should. Louisville’s victories came against dreg after dreg after dreg. The first real team that the Cardinals faced was Michigan State and they lost by four. That loss looks a lot worse today than it did when it occurred back on December 2. The next decent opponent that Louisville faced was Kentucky and once against the Cardinals lost. Louisville’s other loss was against Clemson. Louisville’s eight-point win over Wake is more proof of just how beatable the Cardinals are, as that game was tied with 2½ minutes remaining. Wake was a 19-point pooch to North Carolina this past week and today it is a 13½-point dog to Miami/Florida.
Let us point out that Louisville was not ranked in the preseason polls. Four double-digit scorers are gone from last year’s squad that reached the Final Four. That leaves sophomore guard Quentin Snider and his 4.1 points per game from last season as the top returning scorer. That’s not to say that Louisville is void of talent. Trey Lewis is a graduate transfer from Cleveland State who is averaging 12.1 points already and Damion Lee is a grad transfer as well. Lee comes from Drexel where he averaged 21.4 points per game, ranking fourth in all of Division I basketball and he’s the Cardinals leading scorer this year. Still, Louisville is not the 17th best team in the country and they’re probably not even a top-30 team. However, they’re priced like an elite team because they’re ranked and they’re winning games and this market eats up wins and ranked teams. We now get an inflated price because if it.
Georgia Tech is 11-7 overall and 1-4 in the conference, which isn’t pretty but what that record doesn’t tell you is that Tech’s strength of schedule ranks 25th in the country. The Yellow Jackets have a four-point home victory over then #4 Virginia. They also have victories over VCU, Tennessee and Arkansas among their out-of-conference wins. They have two, one-point losses and an eight-point loss at #2 North Carolina. Of Tech’s seven losses, five have been by eight points or less and three of those have been by five points or less. This is a Tech team with many good qualities that help win ball games. The Yellow Jackets +5 assist to turnover ratio and only 10 turnovers per game strongly suggests this matchup isn’t over their heads. Ball security is a key to defeating Louisville. Last season, a much stronger Cardinals team came into Tech’s house and won by one-point, 52-51. This year, the Cardinals may not be so lucky. Don’t be afraid to play Tech straight up in a small parlay or two either. We’re calling the upset but will take the points.
PEPPERDINE +142 over BYU
The Cougars of BYU are 14-6 overall and they’re third in the West Coast behind St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. BYU has won five of its past six games. Included in that slate of games is a victory over #25 Gonzaga. That’s a notable victory by this visitor that has influence on the market and it’s something we’ll try and exploit. First, the Cougars one-point victory over Gonzaga was simply one of those matchup problems for the Zags. That certainly won’t be the case here, as Pepperdine’s Stacey Davis and Lamond Murray, Jr. figure to give BYU fits all game long. Furthermore, this will be the Cougars fourth consecutive game on the road and not only is that a rarity at this level, it’s extremely difficult to overcome. Home teams win 73% of all games that are priced evenly and this is one of those evenly priced games.
The market will see that BYU defeated Gonzaga while Pepperdine lost to the Zags by 26 points. If it were that easy, we’d all be rich but unfortunately it doesn’t quite work that way. That game was over a month ago and the Waves are a better team now than they were then. Pepperdine has won five of six, which includes a victory over St. Mary’s. The Waves are 8-0 at home this season and their strength of schedule ranks higher than BYU’s, both overall and out of conference. Pepperdine went 2-0 versus the Cougars last season so they’re not being asked to perform a trick they don’t already know how to do, only this year the host is in a much better scheduling spot and they may not even be the inferior squad. You want value? Don’t BUY BYU. Waves outright is the call.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal -110 over TORONTO
OT included. Both teams are struggling. The Maple Leafs have lost six of their past seven games while the Canadiens have dropped five in a row and six of their past seven also. Both teams work hard and probably deserve a better fate but that’s where the similarities end. Toronto allows more scoring chances than most. They are a bottom-five team in every defensive category, which includes shots on net allowed per game and Corsi against in five-on-five play. The Maple Leafs allowed the Hurricanes 41 shots on net in their last game. Two games prior, they allowed 45 shots on net to the Bruins. Toronto has played Columbus, Carolina, Philadelphia and Boston in four of its past five games and its only win among that group was against Philadelphia. Toronto scored a goal in the dying seconds to win it and it should be noted that both Roman Polak and Matt Hunwick scored their first goal of the year in that win over Philadelphia. Over their last seven games, Toronto has scored one goal or less five times and over that same seven-game span they have scored eight goals. Toronto has nine wins in 29 games against top-16 teams.
While the Leafs were losing to Columbus, Carolina and Boston, the Canadiens played Chicago (x2), St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Boston and New Jersey over their last six games. They held three of those teams to 24 shots on net or fewer. In Montreal’s recent loss to Boston, they outshot the B’s, 39-24. They also had 40 shots on net against the Blackhawks in one game and 33 in the other. Against St. Louis last Saturday, Montreal outshot the Blues 49-22 and lost 4-3 in OT. They had seven PP opportunities against St. Louis and five opportunities against Boston. Montreal is not playing poorly. The media wants you to believe they are but they are not. We’re suggesting that Montreal is playing as well or better right now than they were when they won 10 in a row to start the year. Indeed, the loss of Carey Price can be attributed to some of their losses but most of their losses over their past 21 games have been a case of extremely poor puck luck. The Canadiens are very simply the superior team and it might not be close. If they lose again here, so be it but in terms of value, this is as good as it gets because in no way should this game be evenly priced because the Canaidens and Leafs are not evenly matched.
New Jersey +122 over WINNIPEG
OT included. The Jets keep getting worse. Here’s a team that worked their butts off for 60 minutes almost every game last season and played with as much passion and desire as any team in the NHL. This year, Winnipeg is nothing like that team from a year ago. The Ladd/Wheeler/Little line is playing at a fraction of the effort they were playing at last year. The Jets most passionate player, Mark Scheifele has been out for quite some time now. Winnipeg is the most penalized team in the NHL and that’s because they are often running around in their own end. The Jets are the only team in the NHL that has not won three games in a row this season. Their longest winning streak is two games. Winnipeg has 22, 24, 26 and 27 shots on net in four of its past five games. Against the Devils structured system that average doesn’t figure to get any better. Against Cory Schneider, few shots and/or chances means scoring goals isn’t going to be easy here. The Jets have scored two goals over their last two games against Colorado and Nashville. When the Jets wake up and start playing like a team, somebody please let us know.
The Devils are getting healthier by the game. They’re also getting better. New Jersey has won three straight while outscoring the opposition 12-5 over that span. This is a Devils team that leads the league in Corsi against during five-on-five play because they play an outstanding defensive system that is designed to limit the opposition’s chances. The Devils are 6-7 against top-10 competition. They have 13 wins in 24 road games and most of those road losses were by just one goal. What we have here is a structured team playing with passion and that’s been a tough out all season long against an unstructured group that has become one of the most beatable teams in the NHL. Put Winnipeg at the top of our list of favored teams to fade because their win expectation might be the lowest in the league.
Bill Marzano
Maryland at Michigan St
Play: Maryland
I really like Maryland + the points in this game vs Michigan State...the Spartans have lost three straight games for the first time in a long time and that makes them very dangerous however, the Terps are a dangerous team and a tough matchup...I think the Terps are going to win this game outright but I will gladly take the points...the Terps are 20-5 in the regular season conference games since joining the Big Ten...