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(6) Michigan State (16-3, 7-11 ATS) at Minnesota (12-6, 9-8 ATS)
The Spartans hit the road in pursuit of their eighth consecutive victory when they head to Williams Arena to take on Minnesota, 10 days after these Big Ten rivals met in East Lansing.
Michigan State fended off Iowa 70-63 Wednesday night but fell miles short as a whopping 21½-point home favorite for its second straight ATS setback, following a four-game ATS roll early on during its current SU streak. The Spartans are averaging 78 ppg for the season, while giving up 63.8, but both of those numbers come way down in Big Ten play. Tom Izzo’s troops have scored 73 or less in five of six conference starts, while holding five of six foes to 63 or less, including two in the 50s and one in the 40s.
Minnesota has dropped two in a row SU and ATS, taking a 60-53 loss at Michigan State as a 6½-point road pup on Jan. 13, then suffering an 81-78 overtime upset at Indiana laying 11 points on Sunday. The Golden Gophers are outscoring opponents by an average of about 14 ppg (77.3-63.1), but they’ve gone 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four starts (all in the Big Ten), averaging 66 ppg while giving up 70.5.
In the Jan. 13 meeting between these two, Michigan State narrowly cashed as a 6½-point chalk for its fifth straight cover in this rivalry, and the Spartans are now 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last eight clashes. The SU winner is on a 9-1 ATS tear, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 contests.
Along with their sub-par 7-11 ATS mark this year, the Spartans are on pointspread skids of 3-8 against winning teams and 2-5 following a non-cover, but they’ve gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Saturday outings and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 roadies against teams with winning home marks. The Gophers have cashed in four straight Saturday games and are on a 6-1 ATS surge at home, but they are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 Big Ten tilts and 2-6 ATS in their last eight against winning teams.
For Michigan State, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall (all in the Big Ten) and 4-0 against winning teams, and the under for Minnesota is on rolls of 39-18 on Saturday and 4-0 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings, with the Jan. 13 contest falling way short of the 142-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(4) Villanova (17-1, 13-4 ATS) vs. St. John’s (12-6, 9-6 ATS)
(at New York)
Red-hot Villanova goes on the highway for the third time in four games for a battle with the Red Storm, who will step away from their Queens campus to play at Madison Square Garden.
The Wildcats are on an eight-game SU and ATS tear dating to Dec. 19. They hammered Fordham and Delaware to cap the non-conference season and have opened 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the rugged Big East. On Wednesday at Rutgers, Villanova rolled 94-68 as a 13½-point chalk, the fifth time during its current run that it has broken the 90-point barrier. In fact, the Wildcats’ 85.3 ppg average ranks third in the nation.
St. John’s lost at Connecticut 75-59 Wednesday catching nine points, ending a two-game SU uptick and a three-game ATS surge. The Red Storm, averaging 67.7 ppg and allowing 63.3 ppg, get much of their contributions from 6-foot-6-inch guard D.J. Kennedy, who leads them with per-game averages of 15.6 points, 3.3 assists, 6.6 rebounds while shooting 48.6 percent from the field.
Villanova is on a 5-0 SU run in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), rolling in last year’s lone meeting 76-57 as a 14½-points home chalk. ‘Nova is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall and 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to New York.
The Wildcats own the best pointspread record in the nation and are on further pointspread streaks of 16-5 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 6-1 after a SU win, 19-7 after a spread-cover, 6-1 in the Big East, 8-2 against winning teams and 11-4 on Saturday. Likewise, the Red Storm are on ATS upswings of 9-4 overall, 13-3 on Saturday, 8-2 after a SU loss, 6-2 following a non-cover, 8-3 against winning teams and 5-2 on the road.
Villanova is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 11-1 overall, 4-0 after a spread-cover, 10-1 coming off a SU win, 6-1 as a visitor and 20-8 within the Big East. On the flip side, St. John’s is on “under” stretches of 36-16-1 overall, 13-4 on Saturday, 44-21-1 in Big East action, 18-7-1 after a non-cover and 19-9-1 following a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
(21) Ohio State (14-5, 10-9 ATS) at (11) West Virginia (14-3, 6-10 ATS)
The surging Buckeyes step out of conference play for the last time this season, traveling to the WVU Coliseum in Morgantown to take on West Virginia.
Ohio State has been bolstered by the return of top player Evan Turner, who missed six games after breaking two bones in his back when he fell after a dunk in a 111-60 wipeout of Eastern Michigan on Dec. 5. The Buckeyes went 3-3 SU and 0-6 ATS without Turner, losing at Michigan and Wisconsin to open Big Ten play. But they’ve gone 4-1 SU and ATS since his return, including Tuesday’s 76-56 whipping of Northwestern as a 12-point home chalk.
Turner, averaging 18 points since coming back to the lineup, poured in a career-high 32 points in a 70-66 upset of then-No. 6 Purdue on Jan. 12, the team’s most recent road game.
West Virginia, which won its first 11 games (4-6 ATS in lined action), has been shaky of late, alternating SU wins and losses over its last six games while going 2-4 ATS in that stretch. The Mountaineers are wrapping up a two-game break from the rigors of the Big East, having held off Marshall 68-60 Wednesday as a 12-point chalk on a neutral court in Charleston, West Virginia.
These teams met last season in Columbus, where West Virginia pounded Ohio State 76-48 as a one-point road pup.
The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four outside the Big Ten, 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings following a SU win, but along with their current 4-1 ATS surge, they are on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 against the Big East. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-4 in non-conference play, 0-4 after a SU win, 1-4 on Saturday and 2-5 against winning teams.
Ohio State is on a handful of “under” tears, including 7-3 overall, 11-1 against Big East foes, 5-1 after a SU win and 37-15-1 in Saturday games. West Virginia sports “under” streaks of 4-0 overall and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
(3) Kansas (17-1, 7-7-1 ATS) at Iowa State (12-6, 8-7 ATS)
The Jayhawks look to knock off Iowa State for the eighth straight time when they invade the Hilton Coliseum for a Big 12 battle.
Kansas survived a scare on Wednesday against Baylor, escaping with an 81-75 victory for their 53rd consecutive home win, but it fell way short as a 14-point chalk. The Jayhawks are 3-0 (1-1-1 ATS) in Big 12 play, scoring 84, 89 and 81 points in the three contests. That includes an 84-72 rout of Nebraska as a 12-point favorite in their lone conference roadie.
Iowa State stumbled at Texas Tech on Wednesday, losing 78-71 as a 3½-point road underdog as it dropped to 1-2 (2-1 ATS) in conference. The Cyclones have alternated SU wins and losses in their last six games (3-3 ATS), but they’re 9-2 SU and 5-3 ATS on their home court, averaging 80.8 ppg on 50.1 percent shooting. However, one of the defeats came against then-No. 2 Texas on Jan. 13 (a 90-80 defeat as an eight-point ‘dog).
Kansas swept the season series from Iowa State last year, winning 82-67 as a seven-point road favorite and 72-55, pushing as a 17-point home chalk. The Jayhawks have won the last eight meetings in a row, all by double digits, going 5-2-1 ATS. Going back further, they’re 10-1 SU and 6-4-1 ATS in the last 11 series clashes, including five straight victories at Iowa State (3-2 ATS). Also in this rivalry, the host is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five.
The Jayhawks are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, but otherwise they’re on positive ATS surges of 33-16-2 both overall and against teams with a winning record, 18-6-2 in Big 12 action, 13-3 on Saturday and 7-1-1 when coming off a non-cover. Conversely, Iowa State is in pointspread ruts of 4-11-3 in conference, 1-9-2 on Saturday, 1-6-1 after a SU defeat and 2-7-1 after an ATS setback.
The over is on stretches of 4-1 for Kansas against winning teams, 7-3 for the Cyclones at home, 5-2 for the Cyclones in league play and 4-1 for the Cyclones against winning teams. Also, four of the last five meetings in this rivalry have topped the total, as have four of the last five clashes at Iowa State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS and OVER
Marquette (11-7, 7-5 ATS) at (5) Syracuse (18-1, 12-3 ATS)
Fresh off three straight Big East road victories, the Orange now return to the Carrier Dome in search of their sixth consecutive win and cover when they host Marquette.
The Golden Eagles were held to a season-low 50 points in Wednesday’s shocking 51-50 loss at DePaul as a 13-point road favorite. Since starting the season with six straight victories, Marquette is just 5-7 SU (5-5 ATS), including 2-4 (4-2 ATS) in Big East action. The Eagles have lost all three league road games, but they cashed in two of those three contests.
Syracuse followed up last Saturday’s 72-71 win at 10th-ranked West Virginia as a five-point underdog with Monday’s 84-71 rout of Notre Dame, cashing as a 2½-point road chalk. Since suffering their first defeat of the season (82-72 to Pitt as an 11-point home favorite), the Orange are 5-0 SU and ATS, averaging 78.6 ppg (51.5 percent shooting) and holding opponents to 65.8 ppg (39.3 percent). Also, despite the loss to Pitt, Syracuse is 11-1 at the Carrier Dome (5-3 ATS in lined games), putting up a whopping 85 ppg on 53.8 percent shooting and yielding just 61.3 ppg (36.7 percent).
These teams have met three times since Marquette joined the Big East in 2006-07, and Syracuse has won and covered all three, including last year’s 86-79 overtime victory as a six-point road underdog.
The Eagles have cashed in six of their last eight conference games going back to last season and they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five on Saturday. Syracuse has the second-best pointspread mark in the country this year and Jim Boeheim’s club is on additional ATS runs of 21-5 overall, 17-5 at home, 13-3 in Big East action, 17-5 after a SU victory and 17-8-1 on Saturday.
The over is on runs of 20-6 for Marquette on Saturday, 9-4 for the Orange at home, 8-1 for the Orange on Saturday and 18-7 for the Orange after a SU win, and the last two meetings between these schools have hurdled the posted total. However, the under is 4-1 during Syracuse’s current five-game win streak.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE and OVER
(1) Texas (17-1, 7-7 ATS) at UConn (12-6, 7-9 ATS)
Texas attempts to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it hits the road for the second time this week, paying a visit to the XL Center in Hartford for a non-conference clash with the Huskies.
The Longhorns tasted defeat for the first time on Monday, losing 71-62 at No. 10 Kansas State as a one-point road underdog. Texas made just 36.8 percent of its field goals – missing eight of 11 from three-point land – in being held to its lowest point total of the season. In fact, the Longhorns previously had been held under 72 points just once this year (in a 69-50 win over USC). Rick Barnes’ squad has now failed to cover in five straight games after starting the year 6-2 ATS in lined contests.
Prior to Monday, Texas had won all five of its games away from home, going 3-0 in true road games but failing to cover in all three. Thus the Longhorns have yet to cover a pointspread in a true road contest this year (0-4 ATS).
Playing its first game without coach Jim Calhoun – who took an indefinite leave of absence this week because of health reasons – UConn went out and crushed St. John’s 75-59 as a nine-point home favorite Wednesday. That snapped the Huskies’ three-game SU losing skid, which knocked them out of the Top 25, as well as a two-game ATS slide. UConn is 11-1 on its own floor this year, but just 4-6 ATS despite outscoring visitors by an average of 11.5 ppg (75.7-64.2) and outshooting them 49.2 percent to 37.2 percent.
These teams met three times in the last decade, most recently in the 2003 NCAA Tournament, with Texas prevailing 82-78 and pushing as a four-point favorite. In their last trip to UConn, the Longhorns lost 77-67 as a nine-point underdog back in 2000.
In addition to failing to cover in five straight overall and four straight on the road, Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight against Big East squads, 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on Saturday and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road against opponents with a winning home record. On the bright side, the Longhorns have cashed in nine of 12 non-conference contests and four of five after a SU defeat.
UConn has failed to cover in five of its last six non-league games, but otherwise the Huskies are on pointspread surges of 6-2 overall (all against winning opponents), 4-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday, 3-1-1 against the Big 12 and 4-0 after a SU victory.
The Longhorns carry “over” trends of 4-1 on the road, 5-2 in non-conference action, 9-4 against the Big East and 4-1 on Saturday. UConn has topped the total in five straight against Big 12 foes and five straight on Saturday, but the under is 4-1 in its last five overall and 5-2 in its last seven at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN
Oklahoma State (14-4, 7-4-1 ATS) at (10) Kansas State (16-2, 9-3-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State tries once again for its first conference road win when it visits Bramlage Coliseum for a Big 12 tussle against the 10th-ranked Wildcats, who are coming off their biggest victory of the season and have won 14 in a row at home.
The Cowboys followed up Big 12 road losses at Oklahoma (62-57 in overtime as a 1½-point underdog) and Baylor (83-70 as a six-point pup) with Wednesday’s 90-78 rout of Colorado, cashing as a 9½-point home favorite. Oklahoma State is just 1-3 SU and ATS in true road games this year, with the lone triumph being a 71-70 victory at Stanford.
Kansas State flexed its muscle Monday with a 71-62 victory over top-ranked and undefeated Texas as a one-point home favorite. The Wildcats shot just 38.5 percent from the field, including going 1-for-12 from three-point range, and they were 20-for-32 from the foul line, but they held the Longhorns to 36.8 percent shooting and a season-low in points. Since suffering its first defeat of the season – a 74-68 setback at Missouri as a five-point underdog two weeks ago – K-State has won three in a row (2-0-1 ATS).
The Wildcats are 11-0 at home this year – with an average final score 82.6-61.4 – and they’ve won 14 in a row at Bramlage Coliseum going back to last year’s nine-point loss to rival Kansas.
The home team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings and 7-2 (6-3 ATS) in the last nine, with Oklahoma State prevailing 77-71 as a 5½-point chalk in last year’s lone battle. The Cowboys are 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five, but their last trip to Manhattan, Kan., two years ago ended in an 82-61 loss as an 11½-point underdog. Finally, the favorite has covered in the last three series clashes and four of the last five.
With the exception of a 1-4 ATS drought on the highway, Oklahoma State is riding nothing but impressive ATS streaks, including 18-7-1 overall, 11-3 in Big 12 play, 6-2-1 on Saturday, 15-5-1 against winning teams, 14-4-1 after a SU victory and 12-4 after a spread-cover. The Wildcats have cashed in five straight home games and they’re on additional ATS upticks of 8-1-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 36-16-2 on Saturday and 7-1-1 versus teams with a winning record. The lone negative for Kansas State: a 7-18-3 ATS slump in conference games.
The Cowboys carry “under” streaks of 6-2 overall, 5-2 on Saturday, 20-8 after a SU victory and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Conversely, K-State has hurdled the total in six of its last seven on Saturday and five of its last six after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(7) Duke (15-3, 11-6 ATS) at (17) Clemson (15-4, 9-7 ATS)
Duke, which has yet to win a true road game this year, makes the trek to Littlejohn Coliseum in Death Valley for an ACC showdown against the Tigers, who are looking to avenge an ugly loss at Duke earlier this month.
The Blue Devils got trounced 88-74 at North Carolina State on Wednesday despite being a hefty 11½-point road favorite. Duke got outshot 58.2 percent to 38.6 percent and lost despite a commanding 38-23 rebounding advantage. The Blue Devils have been upset in their two ACC road games (including a 71-67 loss at Georgia Tech as a seven-point favorite), and while they’re 4-0 SU and ATS in neutral-site venutes, they’re 0-3 SU and ATS in an opponent’s gym.
Clemson’s three-game winning streak came to a halt Tuesday with a tough 66-64 loss at No. 19 Georgia Tech, just missing as a one-point road underdog. The Tigers are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in conference play, but 2-0 SU and ATS at home, winning by margins of 16 points (Boston College) and 19 points (North Carolina). For the season, they’re 9-1 at Littlejohn Coliseum (6-1 ATS in lined games) – outscoring visitors by 21.6 ppg – with the only blemish being 76-74 loss to Illinois, a game Clemson led by double digits in the second half.
Duke hammered the Tigers 74-53 as an 11½-point home favorite on Jan. 3, ending a two-game SU and ATS slide in this rivalry and improving to 23-2 SU in the last 25 meetings. In last year’s lone battle, Clemson routed the Blue Devils 74-47 as a four-point home underdog. Prior to that result, Duke had won nine straight games in Death Valley. Finally, Clemson is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings (all as an underdog).
The Blue Devils have failed to cover in four of their last five on Saturday and five of their last six after an outright defeat, but they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a non-cover. Clemson has cashed in six straight home games and seven of 10 overall, but they’re in pointspread dips of 2-5 in ACC play and 2-7-1 on Saturday.
The under is 20-8 in Duke’s last 28 conference games, and Clemson carries “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 18-7-2 at home, 4-1 in ACC action, 11-2 on Saturday and 5-2 after a SU defeat. Also, the under is 3-0 in the last three series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(14) BYU (19-1, 10-7 ATS) at San Diego State (14-5, 8-8 ATS)
BYU goes after its 15th consecutive victory when it travels to San Diego for a Mountain West Conference contest against the Aztecs.
The Cougars improved to 4-0 in conference play with Wednesday’s 81-66 trouncing of Wyoming, but they came up short as a hefty 23-point home favorite, ending a 3-0 ATS run. BYU has tallied at least 70 points in all but three games this year and has scored more than 80 points eight times during its 14-game winning streak. The Cougars have won four straight true road games, going 3-0 ATS in the last three. For the season, they’re 8-1 in road/neutral-site outings (6-3 ATS), putting up 77.5 ppg and shooting 50.1 percent while allowing 66.3 ppg (40.1 percent).
San Diego State is coming off Tuesday’s 70-68 win at Utah as a one-point road underdog and has now won six of its last eight but is just 2-5 ATS in lined contests during this stretch. The Aztecs (3-2, 2-3 ATS in the Mountain West) have won 14 straight games at Viejas Arena, including all nine contests this year, outscoring visitors by 17.8 ppg while yielding just 56.3 ppg (37.8 percent) on their home floor.
The Aztecs went 7-1 in Mountain West home games last year and they’re 11-1 in their last 12 league contests at home, but the one loss was to BYU, the last visiting squad to win at Viejas Arena. In that contest, the Cougars posted a 69-59 win as a one-point underdog, ending an 0-5 ATS drought in San Diego. A month earlier BYU also beat SDSU 77-71 as a seven point home underdog, but the Aztecs got revenge in the conference tournament, prevailing 64-62 as a 2½-point ‘dog.
Prior to BYU’s win in San Diego last February, the host had won eight in a row in this rivalry (6-2 ATS). The Aztecs have covered in five of the last seven battles overall, and the ‘dog is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
The Cougars are on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 18-7-1 on the road, 8-2 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a non-cover, but they’ve failed to cover in five of their last seven Mountain West contests dating to last year. Despite going 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall, SDSU is on pointspread upticks of 17-7-1 Saturday and 5-0 ATS at home against opponents with a winning road record.
The under is on streaks of 8-2 for BYU in conference play, 6-1 for BYU on Saturday, 5-1 for BYU against foes with a winning record, 38-12-1 for the Aztecs at home and 9-3 for the Aztecs on Saturday. Also, five of the last six in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Oklahoma City (24-19, 26-17 ATS) at Cleveland (33-11, 21-22 ATS)
Kevin Durant leads the Thunder into Quicken Loans Arena for the only time this season as they wrap up a four-game road trip with a battle against LeBron James and the Cavaliers, who are back in action for the first time since knocking off the Lakers on Thursday.
Despite another tremendous performance by Durant (30 points, eight rebounds), Oklahoma City came up short at Memphis last night, falling 86-84 but covering as a 3½-point road underdog to snap a three-game winning streak. Durant has been the catalyst for the Thunder’s resurgence this year, as he’s averaging 29.2 points per game, tallying at least 25 points in 15 consecutive contests.
James scored a game-high 37 points and outplayed nemesis Kobe Bryant in Cleveland’s 93-87 home win Thursday, covering as a three-point favorite. The Cavaliers have won three in a row and 18 of their last 22, and they’re now right behind the Lakers in the race for the best record in the league. On the downside, Cleveland has gone 11 straight games without consecutive spread-covers and is still just 3-6 ATS in its last nine home games.
Cleveland swept the season series from the Thunder last year, winning by margins of 35 points (home) and 11 points (road) with the teams splitting the cash. Then the Cavs went to Oklahoma City on five weeks ago and cruised 102-89 as a 3½-point road favorite for their third straight win over the Thunder. Prior to the last two games, the home team had won seven in a row SU and ATS in this rivalry. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the SU winner has covered in 15 of the last 16 meetings.
One of the best pointspread teams in the NBA this year, the Thunder come into this contest on ATS runs of 8-2 on the road, 6-1 as an underdog (all on the road), 6-0 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 8-2 against Eastern Conference foes and 4-1 when playing on back-to-back nights. Cleveland is on pointspread surges of 12-5-1 against Northwest Division squads, 6-2 when playing on one day of rest and 14-6-1 against winning teams, but they’re 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last six when laying five to 10½ points and 1-6 on Saturday.
The under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams and 5-0 in the last five clashes in Cleveland. Conversely, the over is on streaks of 17-8 when the Thunder play on back-to-back nights, 4-1-1 for the Thunder against the NBA Central, 24-8 for the Thunder when catching five to 10½ points, 4-1 for the Cavs as a favorite and 4-1-1 for the Cavs against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tom Freese
Arkansas at Kentucky
Prediction: Kentucky
Kentucky is 18-0 overall and 3-0 in Conference games. The Wildcats have four double figure scorers. They are led by point guard John Wall and his 17.1 points and 6.9 assists. Forward Patrick Patterson scores 16.3 points and 7.9 rebounds a game. Forward De Marcus Cousin scores 15.3 points and he grabs 9.3 rebounds a game. Guard Eric Bledsoe scores 11.4 points and he shoots over 47% from beyond the three point line. The Wildcats average 82 points a game. Arkansas is 8-10 overall and 1-2 in Conference play. Guard Rotnel Clarke scores 18.3 points a game while shooting just under 50% from behind the arc. Guard Courtney Fortson scores 16.3 points a game. Forward Marshawn Powell scores 15.8 points and 6.7 rebounds a game. Center Michael Washington score 13.5 points a game and grabs 5.9 rebounds. PLAY ON KENTUCKY-
Marc Lawrence
Virginia Commonwealth at Northeastern
Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth
For the first time in the five-year history of this series, these schools will be meeting twice in one season. We?re sure the Rams cant wait to lock horns with the Huskies in this rematch and make amends for a 62-57 home setback earlier this month, their only home loss this season. In fact, that was their second straight home loss to Northeastern, a defeat that now has the Rams looking up at the leaders in the competitive Colonial Athletic Association. One of those teams VCU is chasing is Northeastern. The Rams 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark versus winning opposition this season says the road team should prevail in this series. With Northeastern themselves in the middle of a Towson State-Drexel revenge sandwich, we fully expect the visitors to take a bite out of the home-standing Huskies as they climb their way up the conference mountain. Back the Rams here today.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois
PICK: Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois is in a great position to get the win at home against the Redbirds. They need this game a lot more than Illinois State. The Salukis are already 3-5 in conference play so this game is a must-win if they want to stay “in contention.” SIU is coming off of a close loss at home against Bradley. SIU shot just 27% against Bradley and were just 4-25 in their 3-point attempts. On Saturday, they get a chance for redemption on their home court and we expect them to get the cover against the Redbirds.
These two met earlier in January @Illinois State. Southern Illinois had a lead at halftime and they had more rebounds than the redbirds, but Illinois State attempted 21 more free throws than the Salukis and got the seven point win. Southern Illinois arguably out-played Illinois State, but it’s difficult to win when your opponent attempts so many more free throws.
The Redbirds haven’t performed well in conference road games so far this season. They lost by 4 to Missouri State, 10 to Drake, and beat conference doormat Evansville. Illinois State got a big win over Missouri Valley conference powerhouse Creighton in their last game. Granted, Creighton is having a down year, but Illinois State “kicked them while they were down” so to speak. It was also a huge win because Creighton was winning by 10 at halftime before the Redbirds out-scored Creighton by 20 in the 2nd half and got the nine point win. It was an emotional home win and it’s hard to go on the road after a situation like that and be 100% focused. Illinois State won’t be able to match Southern Illinois’ intensity on Saturday. Go with the Salukis.
Jim Feist
Orlando vs. Charlotte
Play: Under 191
Two of the top defensive teams in the NBA meet here: Orlando is 4th in field goal percentage shooting allowed, scrappy Charlotte is 6th overall. These teams are a on a combined 16-8 run under the total. January has not been a good month for Orlando as far as wins and losses and the main reason has been an erratic offense. Things don't get easy for them in thi game against an attacking, aggressive Larry Brown coached defense. These teams have met twice this season with the losing team scoring an average of 82 points. Look for a defensive duel, play the Magic/Bobcats Under the total.
James Patrick Sports
Houston vs. Memphis
HC Tom Penders and his Cougars are (10-3) ATS in Memphis their past (13) visits and the visitor in this series is a solid (17-4) ATS. Memphis is just (1-10) ATS their past (11) games and win-less at (0-8) ATS as favorites. Our Saturday NCAA College Basketball selection is Houston Cougars.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavs
Even without guards Delonte West and Mo Williams, the Cavaliers are bound to roll here. The Thunder come off a crushing loss at Memphis on Friday and playing for the third time in four nights is always tough, but in Cleveland it's brutal. The LeBrons have taken each of the last three meetings with OKC by double-digits.
Play on: Cleveland
Charlie Scott
Michigan State vs. Minnesota U
Play: Michigan State +2
Michigan st Coach Izzo is keeping his team hungry by challenging his teams leadership this week even though their 16-3 and 6-0 in the Big 10. Meanwhile it looks like Minnesota point guard Nolen will be suspended (grades) for todays game. Michigan st beat Minnesota s/u 3 times last year and once already this season. I know Minnesota is at home, but by taking Michigan st +2 we're getting the better tougher team, better Coach, and 2 points.
Colorado State vs. New Mexico
Play: Over 137
We won playing New Mexico Under the last 2 Saturdays and now it's time to play Over. Last week I wrote that the oddsmaker had a bad total rating for NM and was making their totals too high. Well now after some low scoring games the oddsmaker has finally adjusted, however I think the oddsmaker adjusted too much vs a Colorado st team that likes to push the pace on offense, and doesn't play good defense, and gets stupid fouls.
Rob Vinciletti
UNLV vs. TCU
Play: UNLV -5.5
UNLV is a better team this year and has better stats. They are 10-4 ats vs losing teams and have covered 6 of their 7 lined road games. When they scored 80 or more points in their last game they are 5-0 straight up and against the spread. Tcu on the other hand is just 1-7 vs winning teams this year and 1-4 ats after allowing 60 or less in their last game. When they have been installed as underdog they lose almost 90% of the time. This should be a nice win and cover tonight for UNLV.
MATT FARGO
Wichita State @ Drake
PICK: Drake
Wichita St. won a huge game last time out on Tuesday as it defeated Northern Iowa at home to snap the Panthers 15-game winning streak. That game was for everyone to see as it was nationally televised and that means the public will be all over the Shockers here. This is a solid team no doubt but it likely means their numbers will now be overvalued for the foreseeable future and that will include this game. A win like that was massive for the program and with that comes a letdown as they now hit the road. The Shockers remain perfect at home with a 12-0 record but they are 4-2 on the road with conference losses at Creighton and Illinois St. None of the four road victories are considered quality win with Missouri St. being solid but not overly impressive. After a 0-4 start in the MVC, Drake has won its last four games in the conference to even its record at 4-4. It was a tough start to the season for the Bulldogs as they were breaking in a lot of new players but it looks as though things are starting to come together. Playing with confidence is huge and Drake is certainly doing that now and probably at the best time as the toughest part of the schedule is coming up. It starts on Saturday and the Bulldogs will no doubt be out for revenge following a loss at Wichita St. this season by 23 points. The Bulldogs shot a season worse 23 percent from the floor including 2-22 from long range (9.1 percent) while gong just 8-13 from the free throw line. Nothing went right and that goes for All-MVC guard Josh Young you scored only nine points on 4-12 shooting. Overall, the Bulldogs have played the tougher schedule and have the advantages in two very key categories, free throw shooting (home/road) and assist/turnover ratio (both overall and home/road). This is a great spot to play a team on the rise going up against an opponent coming a really big home win. 3* Drake Bulldogs
BEN BURNS
Ottawa Senators @ Boston Bruins
PICK: Boston Bruins -135
These teams faced each other here last Monday, which was Martin Luther King Day. Like this one, that was also an early afternoon game. I had a winning "free play" on Ottawa in that game. (I also had a winning free play with Ottawa in Thursday's win vs. St. Louis.) The Senators were big underdogs but they upset the Bruins by a score of 5-1. I had a few reasons for playing the Sens in that one. However, one of the primary reasons was that the Bruins were coming off a heart-breaking loss and playing their first game back home, off an extended West Coast road trip. With the Bruins in that difficult scheduling spot, I felt that the Sens, who were playing with "quadruple revenge" would be the "fresher" team. That shouldn't be the case here though.
Since that game, the Bruins have only played one game, a 3-2 loss vs. Columbus on Thursday. On the other hand, the Sens have played two games, Chicago on Tuesday and St. Louis on Thursday. In other words, while neither team played Friday, if anything the Bruins should now be the "fresher team." Even with the loss on MLK Day, the Bruins have still won four of five meetings vs. the Sens this season. Looking back further and we find them at an impressive 13-3 the last 16 meetings in this series.
It should also be noted that the Bruins are a profitable 14-6 (+8.7) the last 20 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive losses, including 4-1 their last five in that situation.
Playing their third straight at home and with more road games following this one, I feel that the Bruins have a good chance at avenging the MLK Day loss and resuming their dominance in this series. Consider Boston
Jordan Haimowitz
Austin Peay vs. Jacksonville St
Play: Austin Peay
Governors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Governors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Governors are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Governors are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Gamecocks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.
Head to head trends:
Governors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Jacksonville St.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Info Plays
3* on CS-Northridge +2
Reasons why CS-Northridge covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - A favorite (CAL POLY-SLO) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (20-40%). This is a 47-17 ATS System hitting 73.4% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) Cal-Poly is just 1-10 ATS in home games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons. Coming off two straight conference wins, Cal Poly is getting too much respect from the books and should not be favored over CS-Northridge, a much superior team. Northridge is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Cal Poly, winning by at least 11 points in each meeting. Bet CS-Northridge on the road.
EZWINNERS
Marquette Golden Eagles +10
Marquette's four Big East losses have been by a combined six points. The Golden Eagles are the best three point shooting team in the nation and they should get some nice looks against the Syracuse 2-3 zone. The Orange are coming off of big road wins over West Virginia and Notre Dame and could find themselves in a flat spot here. Marquette is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a road underdog. Take the points.