SPORTS ADVISORS
Louisville (13-7, 5-10 ATS) at (9) West Virginia (16-3, 7-11 ATS)
The Mountaineers pursue their fourth straight win when they play host to Louisville in a Big East contest at the WVU Coliseum.
West Virginia rolled over DePaul 62-46 Tuesday night for its third consecutive SU win (1-2 ATS), but fell just short as an overwhelming 17-point home chalk. The Mountaineers, who won their first 11 games of the season (4-6 ATS in lined action), have been particularly good on the glass, grabbing 34.8 rebounds while allowing just 27.2 (11th in the nation). They are also averaging 73.5 ppg while yielding 61.5 ppg.
Louisville topped Cincinnati on Sunday 68-60 at home, halting a three-game SU skid, but it failed to cover as a nine-point chalk, its fifth straight non-cover. The Cardinals sport one of the highest-scoring teams in the country, at 80.0 ppg (21st), while giving up 69.4 ppg. However, in the three setbacks prior to the win over Cincy, they allowed 92 points at home to Villanova, 82 at Pitt and 80 at Seton Hall.
Louisville has won four in a row in this rivalry SU and four of the last five ATS, including a 62-59 win catching 2½ points last March at the WVU Coliseum. The road team cashed in both of last year’s meetings, after a 2-1-1 ATS uptick by the home team.
The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win, but they are on a 6-2 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are on ATS tears of 42-17-2 in the Big East and 27-11-1 on the highway, but they have their share of negative ATS streaks, including the aforementioned 0-5 overall, 0-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 following a SU win and 1-6 on Saturday.
The under for West Virginia is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in conference play and 5-2 at home. On the flip side, the over for Louisville is on rolls of 10-4 overall, 7-1 on Saturday, 6-2 after either a SU win or an ATS loss and 7-3 in on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Marquette (12-8, 9-5 ATS) at (19) UConn (13-7, 8-10 ATS)
The inconsistent Huskies, still without coach Jim Calhoun as his medical leave continues, take on Marquette at the XL Center in Hartford.
Connecticut notched SU and ATS wins over St. John’s and top-ranked Texas in Calhoun’s first two games away from the bench, then fell flat Wednesday in an 81-66 blowout loss at Providence as a 4½-point chalk. The Huskies, who are 2-4 SU in their last six (3-3 ATS), are outscoring opponents by seven ppg (73.2-66.2) and holding them to just 37.7 percent shooting (ninth in the nation).
Marquette hammered Rutgers 82-59 Tuesday as a hefty 17½-point favorite, stemming a 2-5 SU skid, and the Golden Eagles are now 6-2 ATS in their last eight starts. Marquette is averaging 75.6 ppg, with the nation’s top three-point shooting unit (43.1 percent), while allowing opponents 62.5 ppg.
Since Marquette joined the Big East a few years back, these teams have split four meetings, with the Eagles winning the first two SU and ATS and the Huskies taking the last two SU and ATS. Last February, Connecticut bagged a 93-82 road win as a one-point chalk, which followed an 89-73 rout at home two years ago giving 2½ points.
Despite Wednesday’s debacle at Providence, the Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 starts and are on additional pointspread rolls of 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 at home, 5-2 in the Big East and 7-3 against winning teams, though they are also on a 2-5 ATS skid following a non-cover. The Golden Eagles are on ATS runs of 5-1 overall (all in the Big East), 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 after a SU win of more than 20 points.
UConn is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 in the Big East. However, the over has hit in six consecutive Saturday starts for the Huskies and is on a 4-0 run for the squad against winning teams, and Marquette is on “over” strings of 4-1 overall (all in the Big East), 4-0 against winning teams and 21-6 on Saturday. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in each of the last four clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN and OVER
(8) Duke (17-3, 13-6 ATS) at (7) Georgetown (15-4, 8-7 ATS)
The Blue Devils and the Hoyas step out of conference play for a clash of top-10 teams at the Verizon Center.
Duke has bounced back from its 88-74 upset loss at North Carolina State 10 days ago, dumping Clemson 60-47 as a two-point road favorite last Saturday, then dropping Florida State 70-56 giving 12½ points at home Wednesday. The Blue Devils are outscoring foes by nearly 21 ppg, racking up 82 ppg (10th) while allowing 61.4 ppg, and their three-point defense rates ninth nationally (28.5 percent).
Georgetown has sandwiched two wins between a pair of losses in its last four games, getting trounced at No. 4 Syracuse 73-56 Monday as a 5½-point underdog. The other loss in that stretch was an 82-77 setback at then-No. 4 Villanova on Jan. 17 as a 4½-point pup, and that was followed by a 74-66 win over then-No. 9 Pitt as a one-point road pup. That means today’s contest is the Hoyas’ fourth against a top-10 opponent in a brutal 13-day stretch.
Georgetown averages 72.1 ppg and shoots 49.4 percent from the floor (10th), while giving up 62 ppg.
These perennial powerhouses have met five times since the 2002-03 season, with Duke going 4-1 SU but just 1-3-1 ATS, and the underdog and the road team are both 3-1-1 ATS. Last year in Durham, N.C., Mike Krzyzewski’s troops won 76-67, getting the push as a nine-point home favorite.
The Blue Devils are on a trio of 4-1 ATS runs – overall, against winning teams and in non-conference play – and are on a 10-4 ATS surge when coming off a SU win. However, Duke is just 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Saturday starts and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six against Big East foes.
The Hoyas are on ATS purges of 3-9-1 on Saturday, 4-10 at home and 5-11 following a SU loss, though they’ve gone 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference outings, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against the ACC and 5-1 ATS in their last six after a pointspread defeat.
The over is on a host of rolls for Georgetown, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after an ATS setback, 4-1 at home, 4-1 against winning teams and 8-3 against ACC foes. In addition, the over for Duke is on upticks of 4-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in non-conference action, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings. All that said, the under is 9-3 in the Blue Devils’ last dozen against Big East opposition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oklahoma State (16-4, 9-4-1 ATS) at Missouri (15-5, 8-6 ATS)
The Cowboys, aiming for their fourth win in a row, travel to Columbia’s Mizzou Arena for a Big 12 meeting with the Tigers.
Oklahoma State followed its 73-69 road upset of Kansas State as a 9½-point pup last Saturday with a 76-69 home win over Texas A&M laying 5½ points Wednesday. The Cowboys, who have followed a two-game SU and ATS hiccup with three consecutive SU and ATS wins, are putting up 74.6 ppg while allowing 64.4. During their current three-game surge, they’ve shot 52.4 percent from the floor.
After going on a nine-game SU tear (4-1 ATS in lined action), Missouri has lost two of its last three SU and ATS, including an 84-65 beatdown at the hands of archrival Kansas as a 12-point road ‘dog Monday night. The Tigers are averaging 80.8 ppg (19th) and allowing 64.1 ppg, but both those numbers improve at home, where they are rolling up 87.4 ppg while yielding just 59.5 ppg. Over the last five games, though, Mizzou is shooting just 35.6 percent, while its opponents are shooting 41.8 percent.
Missouri has owned this rivalry lately, winning two in row and seven of the last eight SU and ATS. Last year, the Tigers eked out a 97-95 road win as a one-point pup in the regular season, then topped the Cowboys 67-59 laying 4½ points in the Big 12 tourney in Oklahoma City. The favorite is also on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. This is the first meeting in Missouri since the 2005-06 season.
The Tigers are on a bundle of spread-covering sprees, including 21-10 overall, 21-6 at home, 7-1 after a SU loss, 6-1 following a non-cover, 4-1 on Saturday and 13-6 against winning teams. Likewise, the Cowboys are on pointspread tears of 20-5-1 overall, 13-3 in the Big 12, 7-2-1 on Saturday, 17-5-1 against winning teams, 14-4 after a spread-cover and 18-7-2 after a SU victory.
The under for Missouri is on surges of 4-1 overall and 7-1 in conference action, and the under for Oklahoma State is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 in roadies, 4-1 on Saturday, 19-7 after a SU win and 5-1 coming off a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and UNDER
(24) Baylor (15-4, 9-3 ATS) at (6) Texas (18-2, 7-9 ATS)
The Longhorns, trying to get back on track after losing their first-ever No. 1 ranking in short order, take on Baylor in a Big 12 battle at the Frank Erwin Center.
Texas was unbeaten and nabbed the No. 1 ranking on Jan. 18, then promptly went out that evening and lost at Kansas State 71-62 as a one-point road pup. Last Saturday at UConn, the ‘Horns tumbled again, blowing an eight-point halftime lead and losing 88-74 as a 1½-point chalk. But they bounced back Wednesday at home with a 95-83 victory over Texas A&M, falling short as a 16½-points favorite – the team’s seventh straight non-cover
Texas has the nation’s second-best scoring attack at 85.2 ppg, while allowing 66.9, and the Longhorns are No. 1 nationally at 41.4 rebounds per outing, almost 11 more than their opponents (30.6).
Baylor has alternated SU wins and losses over its last five games, including Tuesday’s 76-74 home setback to Kansas State as a 1½-point chalk. The Bears average 78.3 ppg on a stout 49.4 percent shooting (12th in the nation), while allowing 63.2 ppg with a defense that holds foes to just 36.5 percent shooting from the floor (third nationally).
Texas is 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry, but the one loss came in the most recent meeting, a 76-70 setback as a 4½-point favorite in last year’s Big 12 tourney. Prior to that, Rick Barnes’ troops had won and covered four straight against the Bears. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Along with their current 0-7 ATS plunge, the Longhorns are on additional pointspread slides of 0-6 against winning teams, 0-6 after a spread-cover, 0-5 following a SU win, 3-9 on Saturday and just 6-22-2 within the Big 12. The lone positive: a 4-1 ATS run at home versus teams with a winning road record. Baylor, meanwhile, sports nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 9-2 overall, 5-0 on Saturday, 5-1 on the highway, 8-2 against winning teams and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss.
Texas is on “over” sprees of 5-2 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams, 5-2 after a non-cover and 15-7 after a SU win, and the over for Baylor is on tears of 6-1 overall, 5-0 in the Big 12, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 on Saturday and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
(21) Vanderbilt (16-3, 11-6 ATS) at (1) Kentucky (19-1, 9-9 ATS)
The red-hot Commodores go after their 11th straight victory and try to hand top-ranked Kentucky its second loss this week as these SEC rivals clash at Rupp Arena.
Vanderbilt is a perfect 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in SEC play, most recently rallying from a four-point deficit at No. 14 Tennessee on Wednesday and prevailing 85-76 as a 6½-point road underdog. It was the third straight time and the eighth time during the winning streak that the Commodores scored at least 82 points. They’ve won and covered all three of their conference road games, and are 6-2 SU and ATS in road/neutral-site contests this year.
The Wildcats took over the No. 1 ranking this week as the only unbeaten team left in Division I, then promptly went to South Carolina on Wednesday and fell 68-62 as a seven-point road favorite. It was just the third time all season that Kentucky scored less than 72 points (the first two came in back-to-back games against North Carolina and UConn). John Calipari’s squad shot a dismal 38.6 percent from the field, including 3-for-12 from three-point range, in falling to 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in league play despite outscoring conference opponents by 10 ppg (80-70).
Kentucky’s most recent game at Rupp Arena came last Saturday, and it destroyed Arkansas 101-70 as a 16½-point chalk, improving to 13-0 in Lexington (but just 5-6 ATS). The ‘Cats average 86.1 ppg (50.5 percent shooting) at Rupp, and hold visitors to 65.7 ppg (37.5 percent).
The host has won the last five meetings between these squads, going 4-0 ATS in the last four. A year ago, the Wildcats won 70-60 and barely covered as a nine-point home favorite before going to Vandy five weeks later and falling 77-64 as a one-point road chalk. The Commodores have taken six of the last eight meetings SU (4-4 ATS), but they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to Lexington.
Vanderbilt is riding positive pointspread streaks of 7-1 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 4-1 in conference and 7-1 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have now failed to cash in eight of their last 11 SEC contests going back to last year, but they’re 5-0 ATS in their last five when coming off a non-cover. In fact, since the beginning of December, Kentucky hasn’t once had back-to-back non-covers (a span of 13 games).
The high-scoring Commodores are on a slew of “over” streaks, including 4-1 overall, 5-1 in SEC play, 7-1 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday, while Kentucky has topped the total in eight of 11 overall, six of seven at home and four in a row after a non-cover. On the flip side, the under has been the play in each of the last five series meetings at Rupp Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VANDERBILT and OVER
Northwestern (14-6, 11-5 ATS) at (5) Michigan State (18-3, 8-12 ATS)
Off their best Big Ten start in school history, the Spartans try to keep it rolling when they put their nine-game winning streak on the line against Northwestern at the Breslin Events Center.
The Wildcats continued their inconsistent play on Tuesday, losing 65-61 at Minnesota but easily cashing as a 12½-point road pup. Northwestern has alternated SU wins and losses in its last five games and is now 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS within the Big Ten (all as an underdog). Offense has been the key to success for the Wildcats, who have scored 61, 56 and 50 points in their last three losses compared with 73, 72 and 68 points in their last three victories.
Star guard Kalin Lucas drained a jump shot with 3.5 seconds left on Tuesday, giving Michigan State a 57-56 win at archrival Michigan. The Spartans ended the non-conference season with a 19-point home win over Texas-Arlington and have since won their first eight Big Ten games, the school’s best start in conference since Magic Johnson’s 1978 squad won its first seven in a row. On the downside, Michigan State failed to cash as a four-point road chalk at Michigan and is now 1-3 ATS in its last four games (0-3 ATS as a favorite) after starting Big Ten play with four straight spread-covers.
Northwestern is 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS in Big Ten road games, while the Spartans have won 17 straight at the Breslin Events Center going back to last year, but only going 8-9 ATS. Tom Izzo’s club failed to cover in its last two conference home contests after cashing in the first two by a combined 1½ points.
These schools kicked off the conference season against each other on Jan. 2 at Northwestern, and Michigan State rolled 91-70 as a 5½-point home chalk. However, last year when they went to East Lansing, the Wildcats shocked the Spartans 70-63 as a 12-point underdog, ending 13-game losing streak to Michigan State. The Spartans are 20-2 SU in the last 22 meetings, and they’ve cashed in eight of the last 11 clashes (all as a favorite). Finally, the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six.
Despite its inconsistent play on the scoreboard, Northwestern has been a solid winner at the betting window, as it enters this contest on ATS runs of 10-3 overall, 6-1 on the road, 4-1 on Saturday and 9-3 against winning teams. Michigan State has failed to cover in three of four overall, four of seven at home and three straight as a favorite, but it is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 Saturday contests and 17-8 ATS in its last 25 after a non-cover.
The Wildcats sport “over” runs of 17-8 in Big Ten action, 4-1 on Saturday, 5-1 versus winning teams and 13-3 when coming off a defeat. Conversely, Michigan State is on “under” surges of 6-1 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 on Saturday. Finally, five of the last six meetings in this rivalry – including this month’s battle at Northwestern – have gone over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN
(2) Kansas (19-1, 9-7-1 ATS) at (11) Kansas State (17-3, 10-4-1 ATS)
The third of three matchups involving Top 25 teams today comes from the Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kan., were the Jayhawks try for their sixth straight victory overall and fourth straight win over Kansas State.
Kansas suffered its first loss of the season back on Jan. 10 at Tennessee (76-68 as a five-point road favorite), but has since won five in a row (3-1-1 ATS) all within the Big 12 by an average of 17.2 ppg. On Monday, Bill Self’s squad took apart Missouri 84-65, covering as a 12-point home favorite. The Jayhawks have scored between 81 and 89 points throughout their current winning streak (all against conference foes), and they’ve won their two Big 12 road games by scores of 84-72 (at Kansas) and 84-61 (at Iowa State).
The Wildcats had a 15-game home winning streak halted last Saturday, losing 73-69 to Oklahoma State as a 9½-point home favorite. But they bounced back on Tuesday at Baylor, edging the 24th-ranked Bears 76-74 as a 1½-point road underdog to improve to 4-2 in conference play (3-2-1 ATS). Kansas State is 11-1 SU and 6-1 ATS at home, including a nine-point win over the then-unbeaten and No. 1 Texas on Jan. 18.
Prior to the Wildcats’ shocking home loss to Oklahoma State a week ago, the Jayhawks had been the last visitor to win at the Bramlage Center, knocking off Kansas State 85-74 as a one-point road chalk last Valentine’s Day. Exactly a month earlier, Kansas scored an 87-71 win as a six-point home chalk, and it has now won and covered three straight meetings and is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight (all as a favorite). The Jayhawks have also covered in nine of their last 10 trips to Manhattan.
Kansas carries nothing but positive pointspread trends, including 35-16-2 overall, 9-4-1 on the road, 20-6-2 in Big 12 action, 16-5 on Saturday and 35-15-2 versus opponents with a winning record. Likewise, the Wildcats are on strong ATS runs of 9-2-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 3-1-1 in league play, 8-2-1 against winning teams and 36-17-2 on Saturday.
These rivals have gone over the total in each of their last four meetings. Additionally, the over is on surges of 4-0 for the Jayhawks against winning teams, 4-0 for Kansas State against winning teams and 6-2 for K-State on Saturday. Conversely, Kansas is on “under” rolls of 8-3 overall, 5-2 on the road 35-17 after a SU victory and 9-2 after a spread-cover, while the Wildcats have stayed low in four of their last five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
Texas Tech (14-6, 9-5 ATS) at Texas A&M (14-6, 8-8 ATS)
Texas A&M puts its perfect home record on the line when it entertains the Red Raiders in a Big 12 battle at Reed Arena in College Station.
Both teams are coming off conference road losses. Texas Tech gave No. 6 Texas all it could handle on Wednesday before eventually falling 95-83, though it covered as a 16½-point underdog for its third straight ATS triumph. That same night, the Aggies went to Oklahoma State and came up short 76-69 as a 5½-point road pup, their third straight non-cover.
The Red Raiders began the season 12-2 but they’re just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) since the conference season started, including three double-digit road losses by margins of 29, 16 and 12 points. In fact, Texas Tech has dropped five straight on the road, going 0-4 ATS in the last four (with those four defeats by an average of 18 ppg).
Texas A&M edged Colorado (67-63 as an 11-point home favorite) and Oklahoma (65-62 as a 7½-point favorite) in its last two home games and is now 11-0 at Reed Arena this year, but only 3-4 ATS in lined games. Going back to last season, the Aggies have won 14 straight at home, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS against Big 12 foes.
The Aggies swept the regular-season series from Texas Tech last year, winning 79-70 as an 8½-point home favorite and 79-73 as a 1½-point road chalk. However, the Red Raiders had the last laugh, prevailing 88-83 as a 6½-point underdog in the Big 12 tournament. The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 series meetings.
The Red Raiders have cashed in nine of their last 13 overall and six of eight after an ATS win. Meanwhile, Texas A&M’s 1-4 ATS slump overall is offset by positive pointspread streaks of 14-6 on Saturday, 23-8 after a defeat and 13-5 after a non-cover.
Texas Tech is on “over” runs of 34-15-2 overall, 21-8 on the road, 4-0 against winning teams and 17-8-2 after a SU loss, but the under for the Aggies is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0 on Saturday and 4-0 after an outright defeat.
Finally, in this rivalry, the last four meetings overall and the last four clashes in College Station have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M
NBA
Atlanta (30-15 SU and ATS) at Orlando (30-16, 22-23-1 ATS)
First place in the Southeast Division is on the line at Amway Arena, where the Magic look to knock off the Hawks for the third time this season.
Both teams are coming off home games against the Celtics. On Thursday, Orlando rallied from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit and stunned Boston 96-94, falling short as a 3½-point home favorite. Then last night, Atlanta hosted the Celtics and rolled to a 100-91 victory as a four-point chalk, so the Hawks now hold a half-game lead over the Magic in the division.
Atlanta has won nine of its last 12 games (8-4 ATS), but it has lost six of its last 10 on the road (5-5 ATS). That includes an ugly 113-81 loss at Orlando as a 3½-point underdog on Jan. 9. While the Hawks average 107 points per game at home, that average drops to 97.9 ppg on the road.
With Thursday’s win, the Magic improved to 4-1 SU in their last five games, and they’ve now won four in a row and 11 of 13 at Amway Arena. Stan Van Gundy’s squad is playing tremendous defense, holding six straight opponents under 100 points, but the offense has produced more than 100 points just twice in the last eight games. On the downside, by failing to cover against the Celtics, the Magic are in a 9-15-1 ATS slump, including 6-6 ATS in their last 12 home games.
In addition to their 32-point home rout of the Hawks earlier this month, the Magic went to Atlanta on Nov. 26 and rolled to a 93-76 win as a 3½-point road underdog. Going back last year, Orlando is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry. Still, the visitor is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven series clashes.
The SU winner has covered the spread in 31 of Atlanta’s 35 games this year, including 20 of 21 road games. Also, the winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry.
Atlanta has covered in six of its last seven Eastern Conference games and is 5-0 ATS as an underdog of five points or more this year and 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 when catching between five and 10½ points. However, the Hawks have played back-to-back games just once this month, and that was the Jan. 9 blowout loss at Orlando.
Orlando has cashed in 10 of its last 14 against divisional rival, but the Magic also carry ATS slumps of 2-5-1 overall, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 1-4 when playing after one day of rest.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Atlanta in divisional games, 13-5-1 when Atlanta is an underdog 8-3 for Orlando overall, 4-1 for Orlando against Southeast Division foes, 7-2 when Orlando is favored and 8-0 for when Orlando plays after just one day off. Finally, the last three meetings in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Larry Ness
Georgetown +1 vs Duke
The Hoyas opened the week at No. 7 (up from No. 12) in the latest AP poll but ran into Syracuse on Monday night. Georgetown incredibly jumped out to a 14-0 lead but equally incredibly got outscored 73-42 the rest of the way in a 17-point loss. Duke is ranked 8th in the latest poll and did nothing to tarnish that ranking by beating FSU 70-56 on Wednesday night. It was Duke's 14th straight home win (43 of 45) and 38th straight over an unranked opponent in Cameron Indoor Stadium. In Scheyer (18.8-3.4-5.7) and Smith (18.1-2.5-3.1) the Blue Devils own one of the nation's best backcourts. The 6-8 Singler (16.1-7.3) is now a junior and one of the most polished players around. The 6-10 Plumlee brothers, sophomore Miles (7.1-6.4) and freshman Mason (4.9-3.4) plus the 7-1 Zoubek (5.5-6.6) give the Blue Devils a group of solid if not spectacular big men. However, Georgetown's 6-11 Monroe (14.8-10.1) will be the best big man on the court and unlike in last year's 76-67 win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Hoyas just may benefit from a few 'home whistles!' Georgetown's guard trio of Freeman (16.0-3.9-2.2), Wright (14.6-4.2 APG) and Clark (10.8) is formidable with the 6-9 Vaughn (8.5-4.98) plus 6-6 freshman Thompson (3.7-2.5) rounding out Thompson's six-man rotation. Georgetown is 9-1 SU at home should be well-motivated for this matchup. Both teams are right in the middle of conference play and these made-for-TV matchups generally favor the home team, for obvious reasons. Take the Hoyas.
Marc Lawrence
Oklahoma at Nebraska
Prediction: Nebraska
The Sooners have already lost more games (8) this season than they did all of last year (6) and it only figures to get worse this afternoon in Lincoln. We’ve been singing the praises of Big 12 teams on their home court this season (130-10 SU and 51-28-2 ATS) and Nebraska has done their share of home cooking, winning 11 of 13 SU at the Devaney Sports Center. The Huskers have been slumping of late (0-5 L5) but their 20-10 SU and ATS mark at home off a previous home loss reminds us they should rebound nicely against a Sooners’ squad that is just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 matchups versus winning opposition. Series history also favors the hosts as they have delivered the cash in four of the last five meetings, including the last two on this court. With Oklahoma an upside-down 1-7 ATS in games after Iowa State, we’ll stay at home as the Huskers turn up the heat on this cold Nebraska afternoon.
Matt Fargo
Duke vs. Georgetown
Play: Georgetown
Georgetown will have had five days to lick its wounds following a beatdown it took in Syracuse on Monday night. The Hoyas lost by 17 points but even that does not tell the full story as they jumped out to a 14-0 lead and it looked as though an upset was in the making. However, Georgetown could do nothing right after that as it was outscored by 31 points the rest of the way as the Orange 2-3 zone made things really frustrating for the Hoyas. It does not get any easier here as they welcome Duke who is coming off a home win against Florida St. on Wednesday. Duke defeated Georgetown last season by nine points at home so this sets up a revenge situation for the Hoyas on top of trying to regroup from the ugly loss on Monday. Duke was able to right the ship on Saturday as it did not have much of a problem with Clemson on the road. The Blue Devils were able to sweep the Tigers by winning the two games by 21 and 13 points and that victory helped make up for the lackluster effort at NC State prior to that. It also may have given the Blue Devils some confidence on the road as they went into Clemson with a 1-3 record in true road games but still under .500 away from, this is a team that in my opinion still cannot be trusted when not playing in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Georgetown was clearly outmatched by Syracuse in height as the Orange were able to collapse the zone and prevent anything taking place down low. Duke presents the same disadvantages but the Blue Devils are not as athletic and playing at home is a big bonus. The Hoyas are 9-1 at home, losing only to Old Dominion which was just one of those games that they could not get anything going consistently. All three Big East losses have been on the road, and the biggest margin of defeat had been five points against Villanova before the 17-point rout by the Orange. The games played this week also give Georgetown an edge. Both teams were involved in physical matchups against their opponents and the edge has to go to the Hoyas. Duke played Wednesday with the game not ending until after 11 ET so the quick turnaround could be a big disadvantage while the Hoyas have had two extra days. Based on that Hoyas loss, we get some excellent value on them and they will be more focused to try and get back on track. 3* Georgetown Hoyas
Cajun Sports
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -7
The Oklahoma State Cowboys make the trip to Columbia to square off against Big 12 Conference foe and host Missouri Tigers on Saturday afternoon. This contest will be carried on ESPN2 with tipoff set for 2:00PM EST. The Cowboys have struggled recently when playing away from home losing two of their last three and face a Missouri team that is perfect at home this season with a 12-0 record. Oklahoma State is averaging 68.6 points per game on 41 percent shooting from the field against teams that would normally allow 69.2 points per game. Defensively the Cowboys have allowed opposing teams to average 67.3 points per game on 41.4 percent shooting. OSU lacks size and relies too heavily on their perimeter game for the bulk of their scoring which explains their inability to consistently make shots. Also for OSU backers we find them in one of their most costly situations as they are only 26-43 against the spread on the highway when installed as an underdog. While their host finds themselves in one of their most favorable situations which is playing at home where they are 21-6 against the spread the last 27 times to post and 13-5 ATS in home games the last two seasons. The Tigers are also 12-4 ATS in home games when facing teams with a winning record. Missouri is averaging 87.9 points per game on 50 percent from the field at home this season versus teams that only average allowing 67.8 points per game. This type of scoring disparity helps explain their perfect record when they take the floor in Columbia. On defense the Tigers have done a good job of holding opponents to 58.8 points per game when they come in averaging 70 points per game this type of defense also helps create a perfect home record. The role of favorite has not been a problem for the Tigers as they are a solid 21-12 against the spread in this role since last season. This is a very important conference game for both teams but the tempo and pace should be controlled by the home squad. Add to that a television audience and we have the makings of a solid effort from the Tigers as they send the Cowboys back to Stillwater with a Double L on their resume.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Missouri Tigers 88 Oklahoma State 74
LEE KOSTROSKI
USC @ Oregon
PICK: USC -2
USC is simply the better team in this one. No doubt about it. Not only that, this is a great not only to play on the Trojans but to play against the Ducks. Oregon is off an overtime win vs. an average UCLA team. They were down by double digits in the first half and fought their way back to lead much of the second stanza. The Ducks then pulled away from a very thin Bruin team to get the overtime win. USC was at Oregon State where they blew a double digit lead and lost to the Beavers. Trojan's head coach Kevin O'Neill was disappointed with how his team handled OSU's zone and wondered why his team "quit playing" in the second half with the lead. Expect a huge effort out of USC on Saturday.
OU is a very young team that will most likely have trouble bouncing back with the same type of effort tonight after winning in OT on Thursday. Tajuan Porter is the only OU upperclassman that plays a key role on this team. Everyone else is either a freshman or a sophomore. Coming into Thursday night's game vs. UCLA (the Bruins are just 9-11 overall this season) this young Ducks team was struggling both at home and on the road. They had lost 5 straight games both SU and ATS. Three of those were Pac 10 games at home. They lost to Oregon St by 7, Arizona State by 19 and Arizona by 14. Their "home court" advantage has not been strong this year as they have already lost 5 games at McArthur Court (lost to St. Marys and Montana on top of the three Pac 10 games mentioned above).
Oregon is not a very good shooting team which will be magnified here. They were able to hit 43% of their shots on Thursday, however UCLA is not a very good defensive team this year (224th nationally in defensive FG%) but that won't happen tonight. In fact, USC is the top defensive team in the Pac 10 and the 6th best defensive team in the nation allowing opponents to shoot only 37% from the field. That's bad news for Oregon. That's because, they are not a great shooting team to begin with and when they shoot under 43% in a game this season, they are 0-7 SU. Even with their shooting performance vs. UCLA, the Ducks have shot only 38% from the field over their last five games. USC has shutdown 5 of their 8 Pac 10 opponents this year to 37% from the field or less. The Ducks aren't getting to 43% here and in all probability they won't reach 40%.
The Trojans are angry about the way they played on Thursday. Off a loss, this team has been fantastic historically. In fact, their last 39 games off a SU loss, they are a money making 27-11-1 ATS (71%). USC is currently 12-8 overall in the season and they need this game badly as they have hopes of an NCAA berth. Oregon does not "play up" well to good competition. The Ducks are only 14-36-1 ATS their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. USC trounced Oregon by 21 last year at this venue and we smell another rout on Saturday. Take USC to roll in this one.
Jim Feist
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -5
The Orlando Magic got a huge confidence builder the last game, coming from 16 points down at home to beat the rival Boston Celtics, 96-94. I had Boston as my 15-Star January NBA Game of the Month and got the cover, but I was impressed with Orlando. This frontcourt is exceptional with Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and newcomer Vince Carter. They take on an Atlanta team they are neck and neck with for first place in the South East division, so it's a meaningful game. Orlando has had a full day to rest since beating the Celtics, the Hawks had play last night against the Celtics, so this is a difficult situational spot. Orlando is 2-0 SU/ATS against Atlanta this season winning by 17 and 32 points. Play the Orlando Magic.
Karl Garrett
Syracuse at DE PAUL +17
I get that Syracuse is going to win this game against lowly DePaul today, I really do, but to ask them to lay this kind of wood on the road is a little ridiculous.
DePaul may only have 8 outright wins this season, but the linemakers have kept the Blue Demons around where it counts - against the spread - as DePaul has now covered their last 3 games, ALL as a double-digit conference underdog.
Things have been going along way too smoothly for the Orangemen, and while there is little chance they lose this one outright, I can see the 'Cuse taking the Demons a little lightly, and allowing DePaul to stay inside of this roomy impost.
Grab the double-digit home underdog, as DePaul makes it 4 straight covers plus the points.
1♦ DE PAUL
Providence +8 at CINCINNATI
For Saturday night in college hoops, grab the points with the Friars, as Providence was able to stop their 2 game losing streak in a big way on Wednesday, dumping Connecitcut 81-66 as the home dog.
Providence will be able to keep this one close simply because Cincinnati has been a money-burner against the spread of late, and a money-burner in Big East play of late.
The Bearcats are on both a 2-10 spread slide their last dozen lined games, and a 2-10 spread slide their last 12 Big East games!
Cincy has also lost 4 in a row against Providence, and 4 of the last 5 series meetings against the spread.
Cincinnati will be happy with any win they can get, making the cover very unlikely.
Take the Friars plus the points.
4♦ PROVIDENCE
Tom Freese
Delaware at Hofstra
Delaware 6-15 overall and 2-8 in Conference Play. Guard Jawan Carter scores 17.6 points a game and guard Alphonso Dawson scores 12.6 points a game. No other player score more than 7.1 points a game. The Blue Hens are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 meetings with Hofstra and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games straight up. Hoftstra is 10-12 overall and 3-7 in Conference Play. Guard Charles Jenkins with 18.5 points a game. Four other players score between 9.4 points and 6.9 points. The Pride is 41-18-2 ATS their last 61 Saturday games and they are 5-1 ATS off a win by 20 or more points. PLAY ON HOFSTRA -
Great Lakes Sports
Georgia at South Carolina
Play: Georgia
The Georgia Bulldogs are on a major winning roll going 5-1 ATS in their last six games, and the Bulldogs are a stunning 4-1 ATS vs conference opponents this year. The Georgia Bulldogs is also a very respectable 5-2 ATS when playing in the month of January this year, and they are a stellar 6-1 ATS when the total is between 130 to 139.5 this year. We look for the Georgia Bulldogs to grab the road ATS Win&Cover tonight.
VEGAS EXPERTS
New Orleans Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies
Heading into last night's game with San Antonio was there a hotter team right now than the Grizzlies? Memphis has won seven of nine and 12 of 16 coming in and is 17-5 SU here at the Fed Ex Forum. The Hornets are a weak road team and come off a tough OT loss at home last night vs. Chicago. The Grizzlies have revenge for a two-point loss in the Big Easy 10 days ago and the switch in venue will be all the difference we need.
Play on: Memphis
Rob Vinciletti
Wyoming vs. Air Force
Play: Wyoming
Wyoming has won and covered both times as a road favorite this year in this rage. When they have played losing teams they have won 15 of 19 times. Air Force is 0-9 vs teams who average 77 or more points per game and are 3-18 ats off 3+ ats losses. When the Falcons are a home dog in this range they are 1-4 straight up and against the spread. In a game that is virtually a pick,lean with the team with the better numbers.
JR TIPS
Bobcats at Kings
The Charlotte Bobcats will face the slumping Sacramento Kings who hope to avoid losing for the 14th time in 16 games. After losing on the road 104-93 to Denver on Monday in the opener of their road trip, the Bobcats responded with Tuesday's 114-109 overtime victory at Phoenix and a 121-110 win at Golden State on Friday with Stephen Jackson scoring 30 in each. Gerald Wallace, who on Thursday became the first player in the franchise's brief history to be named to the All-Star team finished with 30 points and 13 rebounds against the Warriors for his 23rd double-double. Wallace led Charlotte with 28 points in a 105-103 win over Sacramento on Jan when the Bobcats led by 24 in the third quarter but the Kings stormed back pulling within one with 4:51 left in the fourth quarter. Sacramento is coming off Friday's 101-94 loss at Utah who was without All-Star Deron Williams and forward Carlos Boozer. The Kings have lost 13 of 15 with the two victories coming against teams missing their top scorer and they only defeated a Golden State team playing without Monta Ellis 99-96 on Tuesday for their first victory since Jan. 9 th . Kevin Martin led Sacramento with 33 points against the Jazz and Evans had 25 points with six assists while the other three starters only combined for just 13 points on 6 of 15 shooting. Sacramento only has two scorers and after both teams are playing back to back games, they won't have the legs to have consistent scoring that will get them over the posted total.
TAKE UNDER 196
EZ WINNERS
SMU Mustangs +8
Memphis escaped with a lucky win at Marshall in their last game and they are up against another rapidly improving team here when they battle SMU. The emergence of forward Robert Nyakundi has given SMU a much needed third dependable scorer and added length on the defensive end, energizing the team and sparking it to three wins in a row. The Tigers are only 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games while SMU is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight Conference USA games. I expect SMU's defense to continue to perform as it has in conference play and keep this a very close game. Take the points.