TEDDY COVERS
Siena @ Marist
Pick: Siena -18
One of my favorite college basketball betting strategies is to bet against true bottom feeders at home. The betting markets tend to factor in a home court edge that simply doesn’t exist. And make no mistake about it – the Marist Red Foxes are true bottom feeders. After another ugly 16 point home loss to Loyola Maryland last weekend, and an equally ugly 19 point loss at Iona during the week, Marist is now 1-20 SU this year.
Despite their ineptitude, the Foxes been able to cash in as a big road underdog, with a 5-1 ATS mark in that role. But when this team plays at home in Poughkeepsie, they’ve been getting crushed, game after game, week after week. Marist has played ten home games this year. They’ve lost nine of those games by double digit margins, including six straight here in January by 15 points or more; just 1-6 ATS on their home floor.
On the other side of the equation, another one of my favorite college basketball betting strategies is to bet on the best teams when they hit the highway. These teams have talent and experience, quite capable of winning by margin even in supposedly hostile environs.
MAAC powerhouse Siena fits this strategy to a ‘T’; a .500 ATS proposition playing in Albany, but a perfect 5-0 ATS as a road favorite in conference play. After being forced into overtime in three straight meetings on this floor, expect the Saints to take the Foxes seriously, which is all we need for a blowout win in this complete mismatch of a game. 2* Take Siena.
Drew Gordon
Portland +8 at DALLAS
49-29-3 roll L81 Free Plays (17-6 L23), incl. Hawks last night and Virginia Tech Thursday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Blazers/Mavs match up.
This is an interesting match up, because A LOT of things are pointing towards Dallas, but I'm still not convinced. With almost 80% of the betting public on the Mavericks here, the fact this line has actually shrunken should be sending up red flags. Fact is the Mavericks have been far too inconsistent to trust in this spot, especially when Portland shut them down in their last meeting.
Speaking of their last meeting - an 85-81 Blazers outright win in Dallas - the Trail Blazers flexed their defensive muscle that night, and I expect more of the same in this one. Yes, I'm well aware of Portland's injury situation, but if I've told you once, I'll tell you a million times: DO NOT get caught overreacting to injuries! Blazers are still a solid defensive team with or without Roy and Oden, and they'll prove it tonight.
Finally, I'm not a big fan of this situational spot for Dallas, as coming home to play a single home game, then going right back out on the highway (at Utah no less) is never an easy thing to do. From a focus standpoint, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Dallas came out flat here because of that. In the end, do not fall asleep on this Portland team just because their nursing a few injuries! Look for the Blazers to keep this one competitive, as Aldridge goes wild against the slower (Nowitzki) or smaller (Marion) Dallas frontline.
Take Portland plus the points over Dallas in this NBA match up.
2♦ PORTLAND
Bradley at ILLINOIS STATE -8
49-29-3 roll L81 Free Plays (17-6 L23), incl. Hawks last night and Virginia Tech Thursday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Bradley/Illinois State match up.
Seems like it too steep a price to pay in order to play the Redbirds here, but that's EXACTLY what the guys in Vegas want you to think! Truth is Illinois St. is damn good at home, and will be looking to bounce back BIG after back-to-back disappointing road losses. Its no secret the Redbirds have been vulerable on the highway, but put them at Redbird Arena, and they're very tough to beat, going 10-2 SU (4-6 ATS) there this season.
Granted, their 4-6 record ATS at home can be discouraging, but that's what bettors thought when they played Creighton (as a 6-point home fav) 10 days ago! Redbirds easily won and covered 71-62, while the Braves JUST lost to that very same Creighton team 73-68 on their own home floor. Checking out common opponents is a good tool for underestanding match ups, and if Creighton can slow down Bradley in Peoria (Braves shot 37%), then Illinois State can do the same in Normal!
Finally, you've got to like the overall match ups for the Redbirds, as Eldridge will bounce back from his sub-par effort at Wichita State. While, Braves Taylor Brown will have his hands full with a bigger, more physical Redbirds frontline. In the end, lay the points, as Illinois State returns to the comforts of home, and pounces on a vulnerale Braves team Saturday!
Take Illinois State over Bradley in this college hoops match up.
4♦ ILLINOIS STATE
Dominic Fazzini
Portland at DALLAS -8
Picked up an easy victory Friday with my complimentary selection as the Hawks kept Boston in check in Atlanta. That pushed my record to 63-45-3 over the last 111 days, and there's another NBA winner ready to tip off today!
The Trail Blazers are more like a train wreck without guard Brandon Roy in the lineup. With Roy missing the team's last five games with a sprained right hamstring, Portland is 1-4 with losses in its last four games, including a 104-100 loss at Houston on Friday night.
The Blazers could use his scoring tonight against a Mavericks team that is averaging 114 points over its last three games, especially since Portland is 3-17 in its last 20 games at Dallas, averaging just 88.9 ppg during that stretch.
Mavs All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki has shined in his last three home games against the Blazers, averaging 26.7 points and 10.7 rebounds.
Not only has Portland been losing without Roy, but it has failed to cover in its last two games, as well. I see that happening again tonight. Take the Mavericks to win this one by double digits.
2♦ DALLAS
Tom Stryker
MISSOURI (-) over Oklahoma State
Fresh off three wins and covers over Colorado, Kansas State and Texas A&M, Oklahoma State will take their best shot at Missouri on Saturday afternoon. Rest assured, off their 19-point loss at Kansas on Monday, the rested Tigers will be ready to go.
I'll admit, Mizzou hasn't shot the ball well this season. In fact, the Tigers are ranked at the bottom of the Big 12 Conference connecting on only 35.6 percent from the floor and 10th from behind the arc with a 32.1 percentage. Those numbers are respected. However, with five days in between games, Mizzou has had plenty of time to work out the kinks and I've got a hunch they're talented guards are ready to bust out here.
Technically speaking, this is an ideal spot for Missouri. According to my college basketball database, the Tigers are a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS priced as a home favorite of -5 or more provided they are running with five or more days rest and their opponent checks in off a straight up win. Also, at home facing a foe that checks in with a won/loss percentage of .750 or better, Mizzou is a powerful 25-12 ATS provided the Tigers are NOT off a straight up victory of three points or more.
Thanks to bad weather, the Cowboys arrived late in Columbia on Friday night. The schedule disruption certainly won't help an Oklahoma State team that is just 11-18 ATS in its last 29 in this series and 17-28 ATS in its last 45 priced as a road underdog.
Quietly, the Tigers have cashed 13 of their last 18 as a home favorite and guys like J.T. Tiller, Zaire Taylor and Michael Dixon are all way overdue for a bust out performance. Take Missouri.
Matt Rivers
Kentucky -10 vs Vanderbilt
It’s not like me to lay a fairly big number like this and especially not against a pretty solid Vanderbilt squad but the intangibles are all lined up for a quality Wildcat win.
To begin with being back home at Rupp Arena is obviously a huge plus for Coach Cal’s boys. Then you factor in how this team now will not just walk on the court and think their shit don’t stink if you know what I mean. John Wall and the fellows were caught up in the whole we’re number one thing and we’re never going to lose and were not emotionally ready for what the Gamecocks were bringing the other night. Devan Downey was a stud and the ‘Cats just did not bring that a-game as evidence by all of the missed opportunities and mental breakdowns and that game turned out to be a nice little lesson for Kentucky.
On the opposite extreme Vanderbilt is coming off of a great outing and victory in Knoxville against Bruce Pearl’s Volunteers. To ask them to once again put forth a great effort is not very believable as the let-down is in. These kids are going to “Rupp” to play big bad “Kentucky” I understand that but Human nature still will create a letdown.
AJ Ogilvy, Jermaine Beal and the Commodores would be better off if they were smacked around a bit in that last game and now had to save face as it’s just asking too much to stay at such a high against a pair of very good or even great teams for two straight games like this.
You know that Calipari was in his team’s face since that last loss. His message is now across to the team and these young kids now understand that they are not invincible and will need to come out and play their bawls off.
In that last home game KU absolutely obliterated an improving and pretty decent Arkansas squad. This game won’t get that ugly but it will result in a beating and a Kentucky win and cover.
Sean Higgs
Marquette vs. Connecticut
Play: Marquette +5
Still going to ride this Marquette bunch. Golden Eagles consistantly show up going 5-1 ATS last 6 in the Big East, overall and as a road underdog. 5 losses of 2 or less, a 4 point loss, and a 5 point loss. This is a tough bunch and will give UCONN all they can handle. Huskies even off a bad loss to the Friars will have to be near perfect to get the cover.
Black Widow
1* on Loyola-Chicago +17
This is a very big spread for Wright State to have to cover Saturday, and we'll take the points because of it. These teams have virtually identical record as Loyola-Chicago is 12-8 while Wright State sits at 13-8 this season. This line has been inflated due to Loyola's performance earlier this week, a 20-point loss at Detroit. But Loyola is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road loss by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Loyola already beat Wright State, 53-52, at home earlier this season. This is a key factor because Wright State is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points over the last 3 seasons. The odds makers have missed their mark badly here. Take Loyola-Chicago and the points.
Jack Jones
Saint Louis vs. Richmond
Play: Saint Louis +8
The total for this game is at 115 right now, so you know that the odds makers even believe that this is going to be a low scoring game. When points come at this kind of premium, it's tough not to take eight free ones right out of the gate. St. Louis beat Richmond by five points just a few weeks ago, and they won by 13 on the road last year as well. This is a team that matches up well with Richmond's slow it down, play hard on defense style of play.
A look at common opponents also show that this might be too many points, as St. Louis is being outscored by 1 ppg in those three games, while Richmond is outscoring the opposition by 1.5 ppg. In league play St. Louis is 3-2 while outscoring opponents by 5.8 ppg. Richmond is 4-2 but outscoring their opponents by just 1.8 ppg.
I know the Spiders play well at home while the Billikens have struggled on the road. However, I can't pass up the chance to take this many points today.
Info Plays
3* on Iowa State -7
Reasons why Iowa State covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (COLORADO) - good foul drawing team - attempting >=25 free throws/game, slow-down team averaging 53 or less shots/game on the season. This is a 107-56 ATS System hitting 65.6% since 1997.
2.) It's like night and day when you look at Colorado's home/away numbers. The Buffaloes are 10-1 at home this season, and we've backed them at home a few times, but we'll fade them on the road Saturday where they are just 1-8 away from home this season. Colorado is allowing 80.0 PPG on the road and home teams are shooting 49% against them. Iowa State is 9-3 at home this season, winning by 12.5 PPG. Bet Iowa State at home.
John Martin
1 Unit on Northeastern PK
Northeastern has proven to be a very tough out at home, and in conference play this season. Northeastern owns a 7-2 home mark this year and this team is a solid 8-2 in conference play. Old Dominion is 17-5 this season, but they are just 6-5 in road games as all of their losses have come away from home. Northeastern is 7-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less this season. Northeastern is 15-4 ATS in January games over the last 2 seasons. Northeastern is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, consistently getting overlooked by odds makers. They had a letdown in their last game against Drexel, clearly looking ahead to this huge showdown with Old Dominion. They won't squander this opportunity. Cash in with Northeastern as a pick 'em at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
Notre Dame/RUTGERS Over 149
The Notre Dame offense is a force to be reckoned with and against a team that has lost nine in a row it’s going to be clicking on all cylinders. Notre Dame is one of the few teams in college basketball that is in the 50-40-70 club and almost never turns the ball over. They have cracked 80 points in 15 of their 21 games this season and against a decent Rutgers defense Notre Dame will be focused on getting points. Rutgers hasn’t won a Big East game after starting 9-2 and what’s killed them has been their brutal schedule and their inability to shoot the three (32.5%.) Notre Dame however allows opponents to shoot 37.2% on three’s and that’s a positive statistic for this wager. When an offensively challenged team plays one with the offense of Notre Dame their ability to make shots keeps them in the game and more importantly fuels their belief that they can win. Notre Dame will almost assuredly win this game but they will have to do it scoring easily and efficiently that will take the pressure of their defense. Rutgers is still a major conference team with legitimate talent and for them to get to 65-70 points in this game isn’t asking too much of them. Take advantage of the low total for Notre Dame games that are routinely in the 160 range. Play: #590 Notre Dame/Rutgers over 149 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Alabama -1 over AUBURN
Well, if Alabama is going to make the tournament they absolutely have to win this game because Auburn is the worst team they’re going to play the rest of this season. The stakes are therefore huge for Alabama who have been victims of bad luck in close games but still have a ton of talent for a sneaky tournament run. Alabama ranks in the top 100 nationally in both offense and defense and play especially stingy interior defense, allowing opponents to shoot a miserable 45.1% inside the arc. The season is basically over for Auburn and truthfully nobody expected much out of them this year anyhow. What is embarrassing are the losses to Sam Houston State, Troy and Central Florida and for that the blame has to be put on the coaching staff. Jeff Lebo is a guy I will never trust with my money because he has no clue how to play to his team’s strengths; for example, Auburn makes a great 52.8% on inside shots but for some reason launch threes with no regard for their 32.3% success rate and that has to fall on the coaching staff. Alabama allows opponents to shoot threes at about that rate and should have no problem stopping Auburn on defense. It’s quite rare for a team to be undervalued this late in the season and that’s exactly what the Crimson Tide is right now. They are better in every facet of the game than Auburn and for this game to open at a pick’em is simply a mistake on the books part. Play: #559 Alabama –1 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Tony George
Portland +8
Dallas off a devastating loss on Thursday. While the Mavs can score points and have depth, they lack Chemistry as a team overall and breakdown in the late stages of games. The coaching on the part of Dallas is not good in my opinion. Portland even without Roy in the lineup has plenty of team unity and they play hard for 4 quarters every night. They are catching Dallas in a tough spot here, 8 points is a TON of points in the NBA.
Dallas has covered only 5 of their last 21 home games, and while the Blazers have dropped 4 out of their last 5 games SU, oddsmakers just have padded this spread enough for some opportunity on a road dog here against a team still laying premium points who have managed just 2 covers in their last 10 games.
DUNKEL
Atlanta at Orlando
The Hawks look to build on their 5-0 ATS record as a road underdog from 5 to 10 1/2 points. Atlanta is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5 1/2)
Game 501-502: Atlanta at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.888; Orlando 123.079
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 1 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 5 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5 1/2); Under
Game 503-504: New Orleans at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 117.913; Memphis 124.383
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5); Over
Game 505-506: New York at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.809; Washington 119.044
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 1; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Over
Game 507-508: Miami at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 121.833; Milwaukee 119.927
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4; 193
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4); Over
Game 509-510: Portland at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 116.576; Dallas 122.145
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 8 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+8 1/2); Over
Game 511-512: Charlotte at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 119.961; Sacramento 115.537
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 4 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 1; 196
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-1); Under
NHL
Vancouver at Toronto
The Maple Leafs look to take advantage of a Vancouver team that is 2-6 in its last 8 games as a road favorite. Toronto is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Maple Leafs favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+150)
Game 51-52: NY Islanders at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.427; Philadelphia 11.308
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+170); Over
Game 53-54: Montreal at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.254; Ottawa 11.020
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+165); Under
Game 55-56: Chicago at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.972; Carolina 12.243
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-170); Over
Game 57-58: Vancouver at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.539; Toronto 11.677
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+150); Under
Game 59-60: Los Angeles at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.223; Boston 11.308
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Under
Game 61-62: Columbus at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.587; St. Louis 11.429
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+140); Under
Game 63-64: Atlanta at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.313; Nashville 11.530
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-150); Under
Game 65-66: NY Rangers at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 9.996; Phoenix 12.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-145); Over
Game 67-68: Edmonton at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 9.740; Calgary 11.050
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-210); Under
Game 69-70: Minnesota at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.138; San Jose 13.581
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Wunderdog Sports
Indiana U vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois -12
The Indiana Hoosiers have made some strides, but this is a program that is far from their level of expectation. They are not on the level of the rigors of the Big-10 Conference, especially on the road. They own a win on the road vs. Penn State, but the Nittanys are without a conference win at 0-8. The Hoosiers were blown out in their other two conference roadies, suffering five huge blowout losses in conference play a year ago. Illinois is tough at home with a 10-1 mark, and have taken down the number in their last three Big-10 tilts as a double-digit chalk. Last year they won against the Hoosiers by 31 points, and the gap hasn't closed. I'll go with Illinois here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers +9
Odds makers are spotting the Blazers too many points tonight. Dallas might be 14-7 at home this season, but it is only 5-16 ATS in those games as it is only winning by an average of 1.5 points at home on the season. The Mavericks are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Portland and the points for 1 Unit here.