Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Rockets -6
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Both of these teams played last night and picked up big wins, but I have to give the nod to the Rockets at home as the Bulls remain still very much unproven on the road at just 5-15 this season. Plus, the Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Houston.
Scott Delaney
Ohio St vs West Virginia
Are these two identical, or is it just me?
And trust me, these are a pair of coaches who know each other awfully well, which is probably why we’re seeing this odd non-conference clash at this point in the season. Thad Matta was at Xavier when Bob Huggins was at Cincinnati. Now Matta’s Buckeyes bring what might be the most pleasant surprise in college basketball to challenge the skilled Mountaineers on their home court.
I’m looking for the outright win with Ohio State’s defensive-minded team. The Buckeyes are so quick and so athletic, and I was honestly shocked to see them handle Wisconsin the way they did. That win right there is a statement that Ohio State will be there in the end, to challenge for the Big 10 title. The Buckeyes pressure the ball with long bodies and long arms; they make entry passes to the post more difficult and deflect passes around the perimeter. It’s suffocation at its best, as there never is a break for the offensive players. If you have a chance to watch this game, notice you’ll rarely see a Mountaineer who won’t have a hand in their face.
The Buckeyes are on ATS runs of 4-1 against winning teams, 4-1 versus Big East foes and 4-1 overall. As for the Mountaineers, they’re on ATS slides of 2-5 off a straight-up loss, 1-4 on Saturdays, 1-4 at home, 0-4 against non-conference foes and 2-5 overall.
This is way too many points to give the Buckeyes – whether it’s on the road or not, so I’ll take the points in this one.
1♦ OHIO STATE
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on Michigan State. If you think too much, you might be tempted to side with Minnesota. I mean, they are undefeated at home and did play MSU tight (7-point game) a few weeks ago in East Lansing. But let's face it, Michigan State is better and their lackluster effort against Iowa is proof that they were looking ahead to this game. It's so easy to back a team that's perfect at home when they are only laying a basket, but it's not so easy when the underdog is the better team. Simply put, MSU owns Minnesota having won 9 of their last 10 and they've done it in convincing fashion. 5 of their 9 wins have been by double digits... twice by more than 20 points. Kalin Lucas is, once again, in charge of this team and leading not only by example on the court but in practice as well, according to HC Tom Izzo. And the rest of the team has taken notice, having not dropped a game in conference or in 2010. In fact, the last time this team tasted defeat was back in late December, a 79-68 loss to Texas. Meanwhile, the Gophers are having some injury issues along their front line and have quietly dropped two in a row and three of their last four. I respect what Tubby Smith has done with this bunch, but today they have met their match. I call the Spartans by at least 6.
4♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Dominic Fazzini
Sacramento at MIAMI -7
I took a fall Friday with my complimentary selection as the Mavericks were embarrassed at Philadelphia. That dropped my record to 60-41-3 over the last 104 days, but I'll be back on the winning side of things today!
Home games are a rarity right now for the Heat, so when they get a chance to step on the court in Miami, they are going to take care of business.
After today's game, the Heat only get to play in Miami three times until Feb. 23, with one of those games coming Monday, and you better believe they are aware of that fact.
Miami hammered Indiana by 30 points Tuesday in its last home game, and it is going to come out with just as much passion today. Dwyane Wade is averaging 30.3 points on 52.2 percent shooting in his last four games against Sacramento, which lost 100-84 at Orlando on Friday night.
The Kings are just 3-18 on the road and have lost six straight games overall. They are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games against the Heat, including 0-7 ATS in the last seven in Miami.
Sacramento is also on ATS slides of 1-8-1 overall, 1-5 on the road, 1-7 as an underdog and 1-4 as a road 'dog. Take the Heat to roll to a double-digit victory tonight.
4♦ MIAMI
Karl Garrett
New Jersey at UTAH -16
Friday winner on Miami for free.
For Saturday in the NBA, yikes, talk about a bad spot for the Nets!
New Jersey was just on court last night at Golden State in yet another blowout loss, and now they must make the trip to Utah to face a Jazz team that was idle last night.
The Nets are just 3-6 against the spread this season when playing with no rest, while the Jazzmen come into this one having won 5 of their last 6, while going 6-0-2 against the spread their last 8 games.
Utah was a 108-92 winner in the season's first meeting at New Jersey back in December, and I don't see anything changing this time around.
With the Jazz 14-7-1 against the spread at home this year, only choice here is to put on your "lumberjack" shirt, and LAY THE WOOD!
Jazz in a rout.
4♦ UTAH
Karl Garrett
Michigan State at MINNESOTA (Pick)
Friday NBA winner on the Heat for free.
Good spot for the slumping Golden Gophers to find their stride this Saturday at home against Michigan State.
Tubby's team has dropped their last pair, both coming on the conference road. Now they are back at home for this Big 10 showdown, and the Gophers are a perfect 10-0 straight up in their own gym, and 7-2 against the spread in their lined home games.
Michigan State comes calling with a 7 game winning streak to speak of, and the Spartans also boast a 7 game series win, and cover streak against the Golden Gophers.
Expect the crowd to be into this one from jump street, and expect them to give the host the boost they need to stop their 2 game slide, and better yet, their 7 game series slide.
Take Minnesota.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell
Sacramento at MIAMI -7
Nailed my FREE play on Friday with the Rockets as they won outright at San Antonio as underdogs, improving my comp record to 56-23, including 33-9 over the last 42 days. Tonight I've got another NBA freebie for you as I'm laying the points and playing Miami at home over the Kings.
The Heat went to Washington on Friday and clobbered the Wizards by 24 points while Sacramento was getting dominated in Orlando. Now both teams have to trek to Miami for this matchup and I see the Heat continuing their offensive onslaught they put on the Wizards.
Miami has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series, and cashed in each of the wins. They went to Sacramento in December and scored a 115-102 win as a 1 ½-point favorite. And last time these two met at in Florida, the Heat delivered a 103-77 beatdown as 6 ½-point favorites. Miami is on a 14-2 ATS run against the Kings, including 7-0 ATS in Miami.
Sacramento has now dropped six straight and 10 of the last 11 (2-8-1 ATS). The Kings’ offense has struggled mightily lately, averaging just 92 points a game while giving up 103.2.
Meanwhile, the Heat have won four of six and cashed in all four wins. Last time they were on the home court was Tuesday when they trounced Indiana 113-83 as a 6 ½-point favorite.
The Kings are on ATS slides of 17-36 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 on the road and 0-3-1 on Saturdays. Miami certainly knows how to beat up bad teams, 28-11-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
Dwyane Wade and the Heat will score at will tonight and get an easy win and cover at home.
4♦ MIAMI
VCU +3' at NORTHEASTERN
I'm on a huge 56-23 run with my FREE selections, including 33-9 over the last 42 days, and today I've got a comp winner coming on VCU as the Rams travel to take on Northeastern.
Two red-hot squads squaring off in this Colonial Athletic Association contest but I’m grabbing the points with VCU as they have muck more upside offensively than Northeastern.
Over their last five games, the Rams have averaged 78.6 points a game and shot the ball 48.4 percent from the field. The clobbered William & Mary on Wednesday 81-59 as 8 ½-point favorites and got superb play from the trio of Larry Sanders (18 points and eight rebounds), Joey Rodriguez (18 points and 10 assists) and Brandon Rozzell (15 points).
VCU has some revenge in mind as Northeastern came onto the Rams home court on January 4 and stole a 62-57 win as six-point underdogs. The road team has won and covered in each of the last three meetings between these two teams, including VCU’s 66-62 win at Northeastern in 2008, cashing as a three-point road chalk.
The Rams have some impressive wins this season, beating Oklahoma, Nevada and Rhode Island in a four-game stretch. Grab the points and play VCU in this one.
3♦ VCU
Stephen Nover
Washington St +2 at UCLA
UCLA is a mess these days with injuries and inexperience.
The Bruins already have lost as conference home favorites this season to Arizona and USC by a combined 35 points.
Washington just defeated USC on the road this past Thursday, 67-60. The Trojans had won at UCLA in their game before that by 21 points.
The Bruins are going to have problems defending Washington State point guard Reggie Moore.
UCLA is 2-7 ATS the past nine times it has been a home favorite.
3♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Oregon at STANFORD -6
Oregon hasn't shown the heart, desire or coaching to get me to back the Ducks.
In fact, Oregon is an excellent fade here.
The Ducks have failed to cover 16 of the past 21 times they've been a road underdog. Oregon is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games following a loss.
Stanford has covered four of the past five it has hosted Oregon.
The Cardinal has struggled on the road, but been tough at home going 8-2. Stanford is off its best defensive performance of the season, beating Oregon State, 59-35, at home this past Thursday.
1♦ STANFORD
Chris Jordan
Marquette +10' at SYRACUSE
After three straight road wins, including two in a row at West Virginia and Notre Dame, the Orange may be due for a letdown performance. Think about it, after the Orangemen play Marquette today, they’ll host No. 12 Georgetown in a huge Big East showdown Monday night at the Carrier Dome. And with the age-old rivalry looking hotter than it’s been in quite some time, I’m thinking some of the Orange will be looking ahead to that showdown.
Why would the ‘Cuse take Marquette seriously? It is a former Conference USA team with not nearly as much history against the Orange, so a lack of intrigue could be looming over the surprising Northern New Yorkers.
Marquette might be 2-4 in Big East action, but understand its record is deceptive, after losing tight games to West Virginia and DePaul. The Golden Eagles had a respectable showing against the top team in the league, Villanova, not once – but twice. The total number of points the Eagles lost by in those four games? Six. That’s an average of 1.5 points per loss. And make note, the Golden Eagles have knocked off Georgetown, proving it can win a tough game.
That lookahead by the ‘Cuse looks more intriguing all of a sudden, doesn’t it?
Hey, I agree Syracuse has become one of the better stories this season, the Golden Eagles are on ATS runs of 4-1 against winning teams and 6-2 in Big East play. They’re going to keep this one close, and though I don’t believe they win this one outright, I do see this being a last-possession game.
Take the double-digit underdog in this Big East showdown.
1♦ MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES
Fullerton at SANTA BARBARA -5
Winners of four of their last five, the 9-7 Gauchos will be taking this home clash seriously, with the goal of the Big West crown still at the top of the priority list. Mark my words, this is a must win, especially with it being played in the Thunderdome. Santa Barbara holds a slight edge in league standings, and know darned well it’ll need its best game against a team that won both meetings last season.
And if the Gauchos are at their best, I don’t think there’s a team in the Big West that can hang with them. And when you toss in the double-revenge factor, it’s easy to see a blowout win tonight.
The sophomore duo of Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally have proven they’re more than capable of carrying the load on the offensive end for the Gauchos, as the swingmen are averaging a combined 35 .6 points per game.
Johnson is the backbone of this team, as he’s reached double figures in all 16 of Santa Barbara’s games, and is pacing the Gauchos with team highs in points per game (16.6) and rebounds per game (5.5). Nunnally, meanwhile, is pouring in averages of 19.0 points and 7.8 rebounds over UCSB’s last four wins.
The straight-up winner is 8-0-2 the last 10 meetings, and that includes the home team going 7-3 SU and 5-0-2 in those seven wins. Santa Barbara is in on winning spread runs of 4-0 at home, 5-1 against losing teams and 4-1 in Big West play. On the other hand, the Titans are on ATS slides of 4-11 against winning teams and 1-4 on Saturdays.
I’m playing the home favorite in this one.
2♦ SANTA BARBARA
Brett Atkins
I improved to 9-5 with my last 14 free selections when I nailed Friday's winner on Iona over Manhattan on the college hardwood. Tonight I've got another comp play for you, laying the chalk with USC as the Trojans host Washington.
Just how bad is Washington on the road? Terrible. This team looks like it loses its head when it gets on an opposing teams’ court. The Huskies are 0-4 this year on the road and they’ve failed to cash in any of those four games, including Thursday night at UCLA when they managed all of 20 points in the second half.
Washington lost 62-61 as a 3 ½-point favorite on Thursday and had just one player do anything offensively.
USC was dominating Washington State on Thursday night, before they went ice cold late in the second half and lost 67-60 as eight-point favorites. The Trojans were winning by eight with about 12 minutes to play and then just got blitzed over the final portion of the game.
USC plays some suffocating defense, allowing just 55.4 points a game this season, including just 52.6 on their home court, holding the opposition to 34.9 percent shooting. We saw what UCLA’s tight defense did to Washington Thursday and it’ll be a repeat tonight.
The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in Pac-10 games and 2-8 ATS following a non-cover. USC is on ATS runs of 9-2 in Pac-10 action, 37-16 on Saturdays and 4-1-1 after a straight-up loss. Look for USC to dominate this one with defense and make the Huskies continue to look helpless on the road. Lay the chalk with the Trojans.
4♦ USC
Jay McNeil
I rolled the dice a little bit with my free play Friday and came out a loser as the Bobcats failed to stay close to the Hawks in Atlanta, dropping my record to 17-14 over the past 31 days.
But I'm coming back with a college hoops play today that is a sure thing, backing Stanford to roll at home against Oregon.
The Cardinal are 8-2 at home this season and just got done destroying Oregon State 59-35 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Ducks are just 2-3 on the road and 2-4 in Pac-10 play.
Stanford has a strong 1-2 punch at the top of its lineup with forward Landry Fields (21.3 ppg, 8.7 rebounds) and guard Jeremy Green (17.1 ppg), and has a deep roster of players who understand their roles.
Michael Dunigan gives Oregon a solid presence in the post, but guards Tajuan Porter and Malcolm Armstead have been inconsistent at times, especially Porter, who leads the team in scoring at 12.3 ppg but is shooting just 37.4 percent.
The Cardinal are 19-9-2 ATS in their last 30 home games, while the Ducks are on ATS slides of 17-35-1 overall, 6-21 as an underdog, 2-8 on the road and 5-16 as a road 'dog. Take Stanford to win by at least eight points at home tonight.
4♦ STANFORD
Joel Tyson
Friday comp play winner on Portland plus the points.
Let's get you a winner for Saturday.
I think Purdue is sitting on a blowout win today at home against a Michigan team that has shown some fire of late, but I am not so sure the Wolverines can do it again on the highway.
Purdue stopped their 3 game slide with a win and cover over Illinois, and they do owe Michigan a payback, as the last meeting in this series went to the Wolverines on their home hardwood.
Revenge time, as the Boilermakers stick it to the Wolverines but good!
2♦ PURDUE
Pete Angelo
Arkansas at Kentucky
Back to national prominence, exactly why controversial coach John Calipari was brought to Lexington.
His Wildcats remain undefeated and are on the brink of rising to the top of the rankings since Texas lost to Kansas State, and there's nothing better than a dominating win to convince the pollsters.
And the fact Kentucky has blown double-digit leads in each of its last three conference outings, and it's been forced to go down to the wire for a win, has me convinced it'll be focused on a blowout tonight.
The favorite has covered seven of the last 10 meetings in this SEC clash, so bank on a blowout win by Calipari's crew.
2♦ KENTUCKY WILDCATS
Chuck O'Brien
Take Villanova and lay the points against St. John’s in Big East basketball action Saturday.
The Wildcats are the real deal. They enter this game – which actually is being played at Madison Square Garden instead of the Red Storm’s home arena – with a 17-1 record, and no team in the country has been better at covering numbers than ‘Nova (13-4 ATS). Since losing their only game of the season against in-city rival Temple, the Wildcats have won eight in a row (7-1 ATS), and only three of those games – a pair of two-point wins over Marquette and a five-point home victory over Georgetown – were close.
In its last two road games Villanova has had little trouble at all, pounding Louisville 92-84 as a 3½-point underdog and crushing Rutgers on Wednesday 94-68 as a 13½-point favorite. Check out the point totals the Wildcats have produced of late: 94, 82, 92, 78, 99, 74, 97 and 96! St. John’s, which hasn’t scored more than 68 points in any of its last six games (all in Big East play), simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Villanova.
St. John’s is coming off a 75-59 loss at UConn as a nine-point underdog, falling to 2-4 in Big East action and neither win (DePaul and Cincinnati, both at home) would I call quality. Also, the Red Storm have dropped five straight in this rivalry, including the last three by scores of 65-52, 60-42 and 76-57, and going back to 2001, the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS against St. John’s.
4♦ VILLANOVA WILDCATS
Jeff Benton
How about that 7♦ winner with the Thunder on Friday? That's now 7 out of 8 free-play winners. For Saturday, I’ll back Ohio State plus the points in a non-conference clash at West Virginia.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a player who means more to his team than Evan Turner means to Ohio State. When Turner broke bones in his back after a hard fall on Dec. 5 in a 111-60 win over Eastern Michigan, the Buckeyes were 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (the only loss was a four-point defeat to North Carolina in Madison Square Garden).
With Turner sidelined, Ohio State went 3-3 (failing to cover in all six games), and those three wins came against Presbyterian, Delaware State and Cleveland State). But since Turner came back, the Buckeyes have won and covered four of five, including the last three in a row in very impressive fashion (70-66) road win at No. 6 Purdue; 60-51 home win over No. 13 Wisconsin; 76-56 home rout of Northwestern). In four games of extensive action since coming back, Turner has averaged 21.3 ppg, nearly 8 rebounds per game and 5 assists per game.
While the Buckeyes have been surging, West Virginia has hit a rough stretch, going 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in six games since New Year’s Day after starting out 11-0. Last Saturday, the Mountaineers lost 72-71 to Syracuse at home (and the game was a blowout until the final three minutes). They’ve also lost road games to Notre Dame and Purdue, with the latter being a 15-point blowout (remember, Ohio State won at Purdue, behind Turner’s career-best 32-point effort). West Virginia is also 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall, 1-4 ATS in its last five home games, 0-4 ATS in its last four non-conference contests and 1-4 ATS in its last five Saturday outings.
Finally, Turner and the Buckeyes are going to be motivated by revenge today, as they were embarrassed at home by West Virginia last year (76-48 final). Throw in the fact the Mountaineers really haven’t defeated anyone this year (best win was against Ole Miss), and I’ll take the generous points with Ohio State.
5♦ OHIO STATE