LT Profits
Air Force vs Utah
The Air Force Falcons are 8-9 straight up this season despite facing a soft schedule, and they are usually offensively challenged, bur have the Utah Utes done enough to be favored by 15 points over anyone?
After all, this is a down year for the Utes, who are only 9-9 themselves while outscoring their Division I opponents by just a scant +1.9 points per game. Moreover, they have done a terrible job of protecting their home court, where they have always been so dominant in the past.
This season however, Utah is just 6-5 in Huntsman Center, and they lost to San Diego State here on Tuesday. They are outscoring their DI home opponents by an average of 7.6 points, but even that figure is only half of this inflated spread. Also, the Utah defense forces turnovers on only 18.4 percent of possessions, which ranks 293 out of 347 Division I teams. This means that Air Force should have little trouble running their deliberate offense and shortening the game.
Yes, the Falcons average a disgusting 48.2 points on the road, but because they have such a plodding offense, it is also hard for other teams to beat them by more than 15 points too, as it is almost impossible to get a running game going against them. Besides, Utah does not play that kind of fast tempo anyway.
Utah did win by exactly 15 points the last time the Falcons visited here last season, but that was a much stronger Utes team while Air Force has not changes that much. Thus, look for the Fly Boys to stay inside this 15-point spot.
Pick: Air Force +15
Tom Freese
Loyola Marymount at Gonzaga
Prediction: Gonzaga
Gonzaga is 15-3 overall and 4-0 in Conference play. Matt Bouldin scores 16.2 points a game along with 4.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Forward Elias Harris scores 15.7 points a game and 8.2 rebounds a game while shooting 44% from beyond the arc. Guard Stephen Gray scores 13.7 points a game. Center Robert Sacre scores 10.6 points a game and grabs 5.3 rebounds a game. No other players average over 10 points a game. The Zags are scoring 79.3 points a game. Loyola Marymount is 10-10 overall and they are 1-3 in Conference play. Forward Drew Viney scores 16.6 points a game while shooting over 44% from behind the arc and he grabs 7 rebounds a night. Guard Vernon Teal scores 13.9 points along with 6.3 assists and 5.7 rebounds a game. Guard Jarred Du Bous scores 13.7 points a night while shooting 42% from three point land. Guard Larry Davis scores 10.4 points a game. The Lions average 77.3 points a game. PLAY ON GONZAGA -
Sean Higgs
Marquette vs. Syracuse
Play: Marquette +8
This line opened at 10 and is dropping faster than Obama-care polls. One reason is that SU might be in a bit of a look ahead game with the Hoyas on deck. Another maybe that the Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS vs the Big East adn 4-1 ATS as a road underdog. They have lost 2 heartbreakers on the road to West Va and Nova, and to Nova again in Philly. Marquette also knocked off the Hoyas on the road. Obviously they come to play. Take this big number.
Johnny Banks
Villanova vs. St Johns
Play Villanova -6
Villanova is the superior team here early Saturday and they have covered the number in 13 of their last 17 games. Villanova is shooting 50.3% while opponents are shooting just 39.1% against them over their last 5 games played. Villanova shooting 75.3% from the line. St Johns shooting only 63.2% from the line. The Wildcats pull away in the final 5 minutes for a double digit win!
JR O'Donnell
Houston vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -8
Jr O on the fired up & focused Memphis Tigers who are 13-5 su and a terrible 3-10 ats @ home tonight!!, The betting public will line up on that 3-10 ats run and get crushed by a "Strong Home" team backed in corner tonight. Off a devasting consecutive win streak loss vs Utep last game they are ready to run someone off the floor, The place will be rocking and the peddle will be to the medal tonight as Coach C is not a happy coach. We note that Houston 10-8 su & 7-8 ats is a bad ats cover road team as their only wins vs to conference bottom feeders Ecu & Rice will tell the tale tonight . Huge edges on the Defensive end by the Tigers will propel the home team to cover the 9.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +7
This is the last game of the Kings' 6-game road trip and they don't want to come away empty handed. Expect them to fight like hell for a win tonight against a Miami team much more worried about its next game with Cleveland. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without any rest and the Kings are an impressive 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. We'll take the points for 1 Unit.
Jack Jones
BYU vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State +2
Tough game here tonight but I see some small value with San Diego State. They haven't lost a home game since last year against BYU on February 24th, a span of 14 contests. I think they will have a little revenge on their minds from that game, and will be keeping the pedal to the medal after blowing a 13-point halftime lead to the Cougars. This Aztecs team also knows that they can beat BYU, having done so in last year's conference tournament.
BYU hasn't had to play any tough games in awhile, being listed as nearly 20 point favorites in their last three games. This will be a real test with a hostile environment against a capable squad, and with a comfortable two game conference lead so early into the season I don't know if they are going to be able to get themselves up for it the way they should. Take the points here today.
Bryan Leonard
Akron at Kent State
Biggest rivalry of the season for these two squads who are located just 20 minutes from each other's campus. Kent State has been a dominant team at home for a long time losing more than three games in a season just once in the past 13 years. The Golden Flashes have won the last four games in this series and are 9-2 straight up hosting the Zips. Despite the lesser record of the two Kent has the higher RPI and has taken on the likes of Xavier and Pittsburgh on the road.
The Zips are a balanced team with every player averaging less than 11 points per game. That's usually a big advantage for Akron, but no team in the nation knows the Zips as well as this rival. We expect Kent State who is built very similar to negate the Akron advantages. Over a confidence building 35 point home win over Buffalo we look for Kent State to win this high scoring affair.
PLAY KENT STATE
DUNKEL
Portland at Detroit
The Blazers look to build on their 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Portland is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blazers favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+2 1/2)
Game 501-502: Orlando at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 121.527; Charlotte 126.984
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 5 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 1 1/2; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+1 1/2); Under
Game 503-504: Philadelphia at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 116.447; Indiana 114.018
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 207
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under
Game 505-506: Sacramento at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.004; Miami 119.664
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 201
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7); Over
Game 507-508: Portland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.655; Detroit 116.000
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+2 1/2); Under
Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.348; Cleveland 128.067
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2;187
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 8; 189
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+8); Under
Game 511-512: Chicago at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 116.354; Houston 121.573
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 5; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2); Over
Game 513-514: Minnesota at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 111.311; Milwaukee 118.730
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 8; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8); Over
Game 515-516: New Orleans at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.482; Denver 126.425
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 12; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 11; 207
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-11); Under
Game 517-518: Golden State at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 111.572; Phoenix 123.961
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 232
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 11 1/2; 232 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-11 1/2); Under
Game 519-520: New Jersey at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 105.222; Utah 127.516
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 22 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 16 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-16 1/2); Under
NHL
Anaheim at St. Louis
The Blue look to take advantage of an Anaheim team that is 2-12 in its last 14 games as a road underdog from +110 to +150. St. Louis is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140)
Game 1-2: Carolina at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.472; Philadelphia 12.164
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-230); Over
Game 3-4: Ottawa at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.635; Boston 12.465
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+115); Under
Game 5-6: Toronto at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.535; Toronto 12.663
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under
Game 7-8: NY Rangers at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.554; Montreal 12.636
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-105); Under
Game 9-10: New Jersey at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.462; NY Islanders 11.944
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-115); Under
Game 11-12: Phoenix at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.801; Washington 12.726
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-210); 6
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+180); Over
Game 13-14: Los Angeles at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.748; Detroit 13.481
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-165); Under
Game 15-16: Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 12.372; Tampa Bay 10.785
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Over
Game 17-18: Anaheim at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.048; St. Louis 13.477
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Under
Game 19-20: Columbus at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.133; Minnesota 13.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Over
Game 21-22: Chicago at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.802; Vancouver 12.787
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-105); Over
Game 23-24: Buffalo at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.935; San Jose 13.192
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-160); Over
OC Dooley
Duke -1 at Clemson
Since this is a near "pick em" line I am going to get right to the key of this selection which happens to do with those crucial points at the free-throw line. While Clemson is hitting a very poor 64% from the charity stripe (#276 national ranking), Duke is nailing 77% of their freebies (#2 in the land) and this could be the area where Coach K's troops ultimately cover the spread. This is ESPN's heaviest-hyped contest on the card as the Gameday crew is broadcasting from Clemson and the battle of #7 versus #17 has the coveted primetime slot. I find it rather telling that the line on this game which opened at a virtual "pick em" in most locations has swung towards Duke even though the Blue Devils stunningly have NOT won a "true road" game this entire season. So fae in the calendar year 2010 the Bule Devils have lost outright on the highway even though cast as prohibitive 11' and 7' point favorites. One of the biggest basketball clashes of this entire week was Thursday's marquee NBA clash (Lakers/Cavaliers) in a battle of the top pair of squads record-wise. In the premium service analysis that evening I mentioned that the Cavaliers were finally coming in at a decent price range due to the mere presence of the Lakers. Even though Los Angeles was humiliated by LeBron James and company on Christmas Day, the Cavaliers ended up cashing another WINNING ticket and we have a similar scenario in this particular contest. Duke opened their Atlantic Coast Conference schedule with a resounding home win versus Clemson as the defense smothered the Tigers who scored a grand total of only TWELVE points in an entire half. One would think that Clemson would get their revenge tonight especially since they are 9-1 overall at home this season and have COVERED 6 consecutive spots at the Little John Coliseum which is a very vocal facility. But the fact of the matter is that Duke has a chance to PROVE to the entire country tonight that they can indeed win on the ROAD in a hostile environment. It was last February when the Blue Devils lost 74-47 at this location which marked the team's worst setback in 13 years. Thus even though the Blue Devils have already triumphed at home against the Tigers earlier this month, there is still a matter of "revenge" for Coach K and company. My database research indicates that the Blue Devils are an unscathed 6-0 ATS/ROAD the past two years when off consecutive games where the opponent was called for a combined 22+ fouls. So far this season Duke is UNDEFEATED where it counts (6-0 ATS) when facing quality offensive attacks that average at least 77 points per contest!
John Ryan
Duke vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson +1.5
3* graded play on Clemson as they host Duke in a big ACC game set to take place on ESPN beginning at 9:00 EST. Our handicapping model and research show conclusive projections that Clemson will win this game. Revenge is certainly a factor here as Clemson lost at Duke 74-53 on January 3rd. This will be Duke’s 4th straight road loss and obviously they have not played well on the road. In fact, they have not been on the road much at all this year and this marks the first BB road games of their season. They lost by 14 at NC State and allowed 58% shooting. We like how resilient Clemson has been this season. The lost their last game 66-64 as a 1 point dog at Georgia Tech and shot just 36.9%. The last time they shot under 40% was on January 3rd at Duke and in the next game they destroyed BC by 16 points and held them to 37% shooting. Duke defense has many holes and these problems cannot be learned and fixed in just a few days. Clemson is improving with every game played and are far better than their loss to Duke would otherwise indicate. HC Purnell is a solid 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of Clemson.
Tom Stryker
Rhode Island vs. Xavier
Play: Xavier -6
Off Wednesday's five point loss at Temple, Xavier will be elated to be back in the friendly confines of the Cintas Center. Since dropping a 68-58 decision to St. Joseph's back on February 28th, 2006, the Muskies have ripped of 26 consecutive conference victories on this floor including a blistering 11-2-2 ATS in this role provided XU does NOT enter with serious momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
Rhode Island hasn't enjoyed any success in this city at all. As a member of the Atlantic 10, the Rams are winless in Cincinnati posting a dismal 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS record against Xavier with all six blemishes coming by an average of 15.5 points per game! URI head coach Jim Baron has watched his kids post a 6-1 SU record on foreign soil this season with two of those victories coming at Boston College and Akron. Unfortunately, the Cintas Center is one of the toughest on-campus sites in all of college basketball and the Muskies have defended their homecourt well.
If you need a couple of angles to support this investment, consider the following: XU holds a profitable 47-28 ATS record when priced as a favorite coming off a straight up loss including a strong 22-9 ATS mark in this role matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up home win. Equally impressive, off back-to-back ATS losses, the Muskies have cashed 11 of their last 16 battles.
Xavier head coach Chris Mack understands the importance of winning at home in this league and he'll create ways for three-point specialists Brad Redford, Dante Jackson and Jordan Crawford to get open looks from three-point land. The Rams are good enough to keep this one close for a half. But, in the end, the Muskies will pull away. Take Xavier.
SEAN MURPHY
Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat
PICK: Miami Heat -7
With the exception of the second half of their game in Charlotte on MLK Day, the Sacramento Kings haven't shown up during their current six-game eastern road trip.
The Kings have lost four of the first five games on this trip by double-digits, and they trailed by as many as 24 points in their other loss against Charlotte. I don't believe they'll be any match for a motivated Miami Heat squad on Saturday night.
The Heat bounced back from Wednesday's embarrassing loss in Charlotte, defeating the Wizards by 24 points in Washington last night. They've won just 12 of 22 games at home this season, but when they do win, they usually win big. Note that each of their last seven home victories have come by double-digit margins.
Miami has already has its way with Sacramento once this season, posting a 115-102 win at Arco Arena back on December 6th. It's been no contest between these two in Miami in recent seasons, with the Heat winning four of their last five matchups on South Beach by at least 20 points.
The Kings have been one of the worst bets in the league in the New Year, going 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS since January 1st. They'll be looking forward to heading back home for a couple of days off after this one. Take Miami.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Oklahoma State Cowboys +9.5
Following a huge win over No. 1 ranked Texas, expect the Wildcats to endure a letdown this afternoon. A letdown may not mean they get beat, but it should mean that Oklahoma State keeps this one within the number. It is extremely tough to bounce back both emotionally and physically after a big win like the Cats had over Texas, and I can't see this young team getting it done. The Cowboys are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 game vs. the Big 12. We'll take the points.
Black Widow
1* on Texas A&M -9
The Aggies are one of the more underrated teams in the Big 12. They took Texas into overtime on the road last Saturday, and currently sit at 13-5 this season. The Aggies are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, winning by 18.7 points/game. Meanwhile, Colorado is a measly 1-7 S.U. & 1-6 ATS on the road this year. So obviously the Buffaloes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Texas A&M is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. The favorite has covered 8 of the last 11 in this series. Take Texas A&M and lay the points.