Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Florida at home over Tennessee.
Yes, Tennessee has the talent, and yes they also have some favorable matchups along the front line to stay with Florida, but Cuonzo Martin's Volunteers have been a big disappointment away from Knoxville this season, going just 1-3 straight up on the highway this season.
Florida has circled this game in red - three times! - as the Gators have lost each of the last three series meetings both straight up and against the spread.
The Gators have not lost this year in front of the Rowdy Reptiles, going 11-0 straight up at the O'Connell Center this season. True, their 4-3-1 home spread mark is not nearly as daunting as their straight up ledger, but the Gators have been on a solid 3-1 pointspread run their last 4 times on the floor, and the line is not crazy-high on the host in this spot.
Triple Revenge time for Florida, as Tennessee comes up short on the road once again.
3* FLORIDA
Brad Wilton
Let's start with the series numbers between Atlanta and Milwaukee. This is the first meeting this year between the teams, and they do bring a pretty pronounced 7-1-1 Over mark the last 9 showdowns into the Bradley Center this Saturday night.
Both teams on the floor last night, with Atlanta making it 4 Overs in their last 5 games after seeing their 4 game Over streak snapped when they could only come up with 79 points last night at home against San Antonio.
As for Milwaukee, the going nowhere Bucks have split their last 6 Over/Under-wise, as they were held to just 78 points last night at Cleveland. One would think that after such low offensive outputs on Friday, the teams are due for some offense here on Saturday.
Some other numbers to be aware of; Milwaukee is 5-1 Over the total their last 6 Saturday games this season, and the Over is also on an overall 19-6-1 series run the past 26 times the Hawks have faced the Bucks.
Back-to-back games for both teams, and that means to me that the defenses could be a little lead-footed tonight making for easy transition baskets.
Going to play the Hawks and Bucks Over the total on Saturday night.
2* ATLANTA-MILWAUKEE OVER
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UNLV -10FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rebels woke up in Albuquerque with a road win at New Mexico two weeks ago! They had pummeled Fresno State to open Mountain West play winning by 13 points. In that the game the Rebs were ( 1 of 16 ) from behind the Arc. They shot it well from the charity stripe ( 22 of 27 ). They are playing solid team ball and if they are locked in like they were the other night against Utah State they could beat the Bulldogs by 20 and turn the tables on Fresno after getting swept last season! Look for Khem Birch and Roscoe Smith to dominate the paint with Bryce Dejean-Jones knocking down his 16 footers and Deville Smith to continue maturing at the point guard position!!
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N.Y. ISLANDERS/St. Louis Over 5½FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Islanders’ games rarely go under this number, especially when a team that can score is the opponent. In fact, 12 of the Islanders last 17 games have gone over 5½ and in nine of those games the winning team scored five times or more. The Islanders have scored four goals or more in four straight and they have also allowed four or more in four straight. This is an Islanders team that is loaded with a bunch of hot snipers right now and it’s not like they’re facing strong goaltending. Fire away on Jaroslav Halak (today’s confirmed starter) and pucks will find the back of the net.
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St. Louis has scored 173 goals, which ranks them third in the NHL behind Anaheim and Chicago. That bodes well here against an Islander team that has allowed more goals than any team in the league besides Edmonton. When the Blue Notes play teams that are not defense oriented, the games almost always go over this number. The Islanders defense is a mess, their goaltending has been erratic the entire year and even without Alex Steen, St. Louis, with its relentless forecheck, should have little difficulty padding their offensive numbers. The winning team in this series has scored five goals in three straight seasons and this year’s offense on both clubs are scoring in bunches.
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Ottawa +112 over CAROLINAFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. On Thursday we discussed the Philadelphia Flyers grueling schedule and the negative impact of a postponed game against the Hurricanes that was made up the next day. In a difficult scheduling spot, the Flyers were soundly defeated by the Blue Jackets, 5-2. We have a similar fade here against the Hurricanes. Carolina has played four games since last Saturday. Its game against Philadelphia, originally scheduled for Tuesday, was postponed due to weather and ended up being played on Wednesday. Tuesday was a difficult traveling day for the ‘Canes. They subsequently played Wednesday and they also played the very next night in Buffalo. Carolina was mentally prepared for a game and a day off but instead they had a postponement, followed by back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday. This game was originally scheduled for Friday but because teams do not play three games in three days it was moved to this afternoon. To make matters worse, this game starts at noon, making it five games that seem like six in seven days with a very early start to boot. Carolina, running strictly on fumes, does not figure to be sharp here.
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Ottawa has played many afternoon games already this year and it’s something they are accustomed to. The Senators have dropped four of five but again, it’s because Coach Paul MacLean insists on using the inferior Craig Anderson instead of Robin Lehner but that is not the case here, as Lehner is the confirmed starter. The Senators own a better record on the road than they do at home and they come into this one in an extremely favorable scheduling spot. They are fresher and they should be much hungrier too. You see, this venue has been a house of horrors for the Sens, as they have lost 10 of the past 11 games here and they have to be sick of losing here already. This is the perfect opportunity for Ottawa to get this proverbial monkey off their backs. Anything less than a strong 60 minute effort against an exhausted and vulnerable team would be a huge disappointment.
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WINNIPEG -½ +120 over TorontoFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. What often happens after a long winning streak is snapped is consecutive losses and sometimes it extends longer than two games. The Maple Leafs got very hot there for a stretch but they were brought back down to earth by a 7-1 shellacking in Dallas on Thursday. A close look, however, reveals that the Maple Leafs winning streak had a lot of good fortune attached to it in the form of outstanding goaltending. The streak started with a 3-2 OT victory over New Jersey in which the Maple Leafs were clearly outplayed, not to mention outshot, 38-25. The following game against Boston, the Leafs were outshot 41-26. The next three wins came against three cold teams in Buffalo, Montreal and Phoenix and the last game was the most legit of them all, a 5-2 victory in Colorado. Give the Maple Leafs a little credit for stringing together some wins but like most of their wins this season, the Leafs were the second best team on the ice in at least half of the six victories. James Reimer gets the call tonight in the Leafs fourth consecutive road game in four different time zones.
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Winnipeg returns home from a brief two game trip through Anaheim and San Jose. They beat the Ducks 3-2 and lost to San Jose, 1-0. Combined, that pair has three regulation losses at home in 47 games. The Jets are playing with a new found confidence since Paul Maurice took over. In five games since replacing their coach, Winnipeg has four wins and one loss and has not allowed more than two goals against in any game. In its two home games under Maurice, Winnipeg held Phoenix and Edmonton to 19 and 22 shots on goal respectively while firing away 38 and 39 shots on net themselves. Anything close to that here against this beatable team with Reimer in net, gets us to the cashier’s booth.
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DePaul +8 Over SETON HALLFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Both these teams have similar records in both conference play and overall but the similarities end there and it’s not in Seton Hall’s favor. When we look at strength of schedule of these teams, the Pirates rank higher by about 20 spots based on the opposition’s W/L record but that is a misleading stat because it does not consider who the opposition defeated. A more accurate barometer of where teams rank takes into consideration the opposition’s schedule as well and in that regard, the Pirates strength of schedule when factoring in the opposition’s defense, ranks 284th while DePaul ranks 23rd. That’s a huge difference and it tells us that the Hall has beaten up on some very weak defensive schools while the Blue Demons are much more battle tested. When you factor in the opposition’s offense and combine them with the opposition’s defense, Seton Hall ranks 192nd in the country while DePaul ranks 27th. The Pirates are coming off three straight road games and they’re also coming off a crippling, two-point loss to the Johnnies on Thursday. Seton Hall has dropped four of five and while they figure to get better, it is still a school that is too big a risk spotting significant points.
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The Blue Demons have played some decent basketball on the road despite some internal issues and injuries. HC Oliver Purnell is a no-nonsense guy that has suspended players for rule violations and benched players for mental mistakes and it’s going to pay off in the long term. The Blue Demons had a strong second half against Xavier on Monday after falling behind by 18 points at halftime. They rallied to cut it to seven before losing it by 10 points but it was a second half the coach insists the team will build off of and carry over into this game. In a game that has the makings of being tight and contested throughout, we certainly like the points in a game the dog can win outright.
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Minnesota +7½ over PORTLANDFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Still don't believe the Blazers are contenders? They've beaten every team in the West currently projected to make the playoffs and have knocked off the Spurs and Thunder twice. Portland’s five-game winning streak was recently snapped but it was their third winning streak of at least five games halfway through the season. However, the Blazers are not in the best of spots here. Portland returned home to face Denver on Thursday night after a four game trip through San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and Oklahoma City. They were pushed hard on Thursday in a five-point victory and if teams aren’t somewhat flat in the first game back from a trip, they’re often flat in the second game back. Portland, behind a slew of sharpshooters, boasts the best offense, but the defense is below average and that could be a problem against the Timberwolves.
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Minnesota is not a team you want to spot 7½-points to. For one, they’re warming up with three wins in a row, capped off by a road victory at Golden State last night. Secondly, the T-Wolves are more than capable of defeating anyone and what’s so fascinating about this team is that they’ve had 10 games this season in which they’ve led by at least 30 points. Eight of the last nine teams that have accomplished that in one season have all gone onto the NBA Finals. That’s a testament to just how dangerous these Timberwolves are. Back on December 18 in Minnesota, the T-Wolves defeated the Blazers by 11 points. The blueprint for defeating Portland is in place and although this game is in Portland, we don’t anticipate an 18-point turnaround in the Blazers favor.
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PLAY: WYOMING -5.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Some serious praise is due Nevada coach David Carter. The Wolf Pack were not supposed to be a factor in the Mountain West this season. But they’re sitting pretty at 5-1 following the double OT win at Fresno State and are suddenly a team not to be overlooked.
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Wyoming is also likely in a good frame of mind right now. The Cowboys lost two very close games to start league play, falling by three at Nevada and then dropping an OT decision to New Mexico. But Wyoming has rebounded with three straight wins and should be a confident bunch today.
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There’s not much question as to who will be the most talented guy playing this game. That’s Nevada senior guard Deonte Burton. But the addition of AJ West might have been the catalyst that got the Wolf Pack rolling. West is not a star, but this team really needed some size inside and West has provided exactly that.
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Larry Nance is the go to guy for the Cowboys. He’s playing very steady basketball and in addition to knocking down a solid percentage of his shots, Nance is also getting the line pretty regularly and cashing in there as well.
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The obvious intangible here is revenge, as the Cowboys let a win at Nevada get away late. But I also like the fact that the Cowboys have won three straight in spite of the fact that they’ve been stone cold from beyond the arc in those wins. This is a pretty good team in that category, and if they get back to their norm today, I’ve got to think it’ll be bad news for Nevada.
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I don’t expect a lopsided result here. Nevada is a hot team and Burton can keep them in the hunt all by himself. But with the Wolf Pack off the thriller the other night and now facing a team bent on gaining revenge from the earlier result, it’s a good looking spot for the home team. I’ll back Wyoming minus the points for the Saturday free play.
Carlos Salazar
Georgetown at Creighton
Play: Georgetown +11.5
Carlos is going with the road dog on Saturday night as he's saying there is good value here with Georgetown getting 11.5 points against a solid but not great Creighton team. Georgetown will keep this one close with some aggressive defense and Creighton well below their 82 points per game average.
Jimmy Boyd
BYU +8
The Cougars have the second ranked scoring offense in the country averaging 88.3 points per game. This is simply too many points for a team that should score at-will against the Bulldogs. Gonzaga's defensive statistics are a bit misleading since they have yet to face a team with the scoring potential that BYU brings to this matchup. I don't think the Cougars will be slowed down by playing on the road either. They still average 86.2 points per game away from home this season.
The Bulldogs have not won a game over a quality opponent this season. The schedule has been incredibly soft and the Cougars have a lot of potential to give them a scare today. BYU is an outstanding rebounding team, and they should get a lot of second chance shot attempts because of their ability to pull in offensive rebounds. The Cougars are +6 in rebounding margin this season, and their uptempo pace of play should wear Gonzaga down early.
Tony George
Georgetown vs. Creighton
Play: Creighton -11
Laying double digits always dangerous in conference play but Georgetown down 18 points ppg in starts out for suspension and injury and Creighton off a huge blowout win over Nova on Monday where their backcourt lit up Nova with a ton of 3 pointers and Georgetown cannot trade punches on the scoreboard or have no answer for McDermott.
Rickie Robbins
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -1
Head to head, the Clippers are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Toronto while the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Clippers on the other had are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Other than a recent loss the Los Angeles Lakers, the Toronto Raptors have been lights out at home since just before Christmas, winning eight of their past nine straight up and against the spread. That includes victories over Indiana, Brookly, Minnesota and most recently Dallas. Overall, the Raptors have been the premier league in the NBA when it comes to betting as they have covered the spread in 17 of their last 22 games, which just so happens to be around the same time Rudy Gay was traded to Sacramento.
The Los Angeles Clippers are currently on the tail end of their seven-game road trip, winning last night in Chicago 112-95. With the victory, the Clippers now have a winning record through the first five games of their trip, alternating wins and losses in each game. Los Angeles has now improved to 7-3 since Chris Paul went down with an injury and currently occupy the fourth spot in a tough Western Conference.
I like Toronto here for two mains reasons. One, the Raptors have looked like a completely different team since shipping Gay away and they have also been a covering machine. Two, this will be the Clippers sixth straight road game and third in four nights, so we could see some fatigue set in. Plus, if they keep alternating wins and losses on this road trip, then they should be due for a loss.
Larry Ness
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St. Johns at Butler
Pick: Butler
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St. John's is hoping to build on its first Big East win when it visits Butler for the first time in school history Saturday afternoon. The Red Storm opened Big East play with five straight losses but was able to break through with a 77-76 victory over Seton Hall on Thursday. D'Angelo Harrison (18.1-4.3), Orlando Sanchez (7.8-51) and Jakarr Sampson (12.2-6.3) scored 16 points apiece for St. John's but NOTHING comes easy for Steve Lavin's team this year.
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St John's led by 17 with less than nine minutes remaining but survived by a single point, after holding off a late charge. The win kept St John's out of the Big East 'basement,' which is inhabited by Butler (11-8 / 1-6), the Red Storm's opponent today. The Bulldogs won their first Big East game of the season last Saturday (at home in OT over Marquette), but were unable to follow that up with a second win, losing 65-56 at Providence on Tuesday.
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Kellen Dunham led the way with 17 points (he's Butler's leading scorer at 18.3 PPG) but the Bulldogs lost the battle of the boards by a whopping 37-22 margin in their worst offensive showing this season. Despite the presence of Kameron Woods (league-high 9.6 rebounds), the issues on the boards are nothing new for the Bulldogs, who rank last in the Big East in rebounding margin (-6).
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That said, I'm NOT about to give up on the Bulldogs, especially up against a 'weak sister' like St John's. Note that all four of Butler Big East home games have been OT affairs (1-3), so just why won't Butler be able to win here vs a St John's team which is 0-3 SU in true road games TY. Butler is 7-3 SU at home and again, all three losses have come in OT.
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Lay the 'short' price.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on Wichita State laying the number against Drake.
The Shockers are in after a 15-point win over Illinois State, as they earned their 20th win thanks to a second-half surge and Cleanthony Early's 23 points and 10 rebounds.
Wichita State overcame a brutal first half that saw it commit 11 turnovers and fall behind 28-25 at the break. For the game, the Shockers shot 23-of-57 (40.4 percent) and 11-of-27 (40.7 percent) from 3-point range. Illinois State, meanwhile, shot a paltry 19-of-59 (32.2 percent) and just 1-of-25 (4 percent) from beyond-the-arc.
Now Wichita State is in a good spot to continue its unbeaten streak, tonight against the Bulldogs in Des Moines, Iowa. The Shockers have covered 10 of their last 11 on the road and six of seven in conference play, while Drake is mired in ATS slides of 1-4 at home and 1-5 overall.
3♦ WICHITA STATE
Brett Atkins
My free play for Saturday is on San Francisco, laying the points and getting it done at home against Santa Clara.
It truly is hard to argue what the Dons have been doing during the first half of the season, as they've improved dramatically from last season. Compared to their 2-6 start last year, San Francisco is 5-3 after its first eight games in conference play this year.
Coach Rex Walters obviously had his troops ready for battle, and now it's time to prove it's been no fluke for a team that has four players averaging double figure points, and another six who are averaging eight points or better.
All but one of those players shoots better than 47 percent from the field.
Now in the middle of a five-game homestand, the rest of the team's schedule is relatively favorable since it's already played St. Mary's and Gonzaga on the road. Games like tonight are virtual must wins, in the Dons' eyes, so I'm laying the points with them tonight.
5♦ SAN FRANCISCO
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Columbia -9 FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Columbia and Cornell recently played just 7 days ago in Columbia. Columbia was a 15 point favorite and failed to cover only winning by 10 points. You may wonder why are we backing Columbia on the road if they just won by 10 in their own building I will tell you why. First, in this game Columbia who usually shoots over 40% from 3 point land shot a measily 29%. In addition, Columbia turned the ball over 12 times which is uncaracteristic of this Columbia team. If you look even further into the last game you see that Columbia was up by 18 with less than 5 minutes less. Columbia could have covered in the previous game but now we are in a better situation. We get a lot better team at a discounted price. Everyone remembers the Cornell of old who was winning tourney games against major conferences but this is a terrible Cornell team to put it lightly. They only have one win this season and it comes to Oberlin (No idea where that even is)... Columbia on the other hand really doesn't have any bad losses and beats teams it should beat like Cornell.
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Like I mentioned above Columbia is an excellent three point shooting team who should be able to find their groove against one of the worst three point defensive teams in the nation. Additionally, Columbia will be able to use its size to dominate the glass just like the last game between these two teams. Cornell will get no second chance points as Columbia does an excellent job at defending the glass as well as defending beyond the arch. The final cherry is FT shooting as much as people say it should not be factored in when betting. I have a team who shoots 75% from the line and the other team shoots 60% from the line this will factor into an easy cover by Columbia. Columbia 79 Cornell 59
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Santa Barbara -5.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The one reason why this game is not rated higher is I am nervous about Santa Barbara looking ahead to the Irvine game. The game is 5 days away and I think Santa Barbara will be a focused bunch. Santa Barbara's offense is a well oiled machine with a top 40 offense and top 20 in FG%. Santa Barbara does shoot a lot of 3s but is top 30 at making those shots and they are going up against a bottom 250 defense in Fullerton. Additionally, Santa Barbara does an excellent job at not turning the ball over. Similar to the defense of Fullerton their offense is bottom 275 and score the majority of their points inside which is not going to be easy sledding for them as Santa Barbara who plays majority zone should be able to shut them down inside. They are a top 35 defense at defending teams inside because of that excellent zone. Santa Barbara 75 Cal State Fullerton 65
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Northern Arizona +4.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Similar to the Santa Barbara game, this game would be rated higher if not for one factor which is the North Dakota defense. The North Dakota defense is actually terrible ranking in the bottom 330 in almost every category except turning teams over and specifically steals. Northern Arizona is not a turnover prone team but ND is able to turn almost everyone over. I do think that Northern Arizona will handle the defense pretty well and as a result will get many open looks. Northern Arizona is a decent defense but they do limit the amount of offensive rebounds and play good man defense which should limit the amount of dribble penetration and easy layups that ND usually gets. Northern Arizona 70 North Dakota 68
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Northern Iowa -5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Northern Iowa has been a very up and down team. They forced OT against Iowa State but lose to Bradley. You never know what team you are going to get but the game against Bradley is fresh in their minds they will be looking to avenge that loss and get back in the win column. Northern Iowa has a top 60 offense that doesn't turn the ball over. They do shoot a lot of threes which they live and die by but should be able to push the tempo against Loyola Chicago to get some easy looks. If Northern Iowa is able to speed up Loyola Chicago this game could get out of hand as Loyola Chicago is one of slower tempo teams in all the land. If Loyola Chicago gets in a high scoring affair there are going to be issues as they are a bottom 250 offense who turns the ball over on 21% of their possessions and this number could get higher if the pace is sped up. Additionally, Northern Iowa will be able to limit the amount of second chance buckets as Loyola Chicago is a terrible offensive rebounding team. Northern Iowa 70 Loyola Chicago 60
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Connecticut -6.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UConn is one of those teams that no one is talking about but are playing some of the best ball in the nation particularily on the offense end where they rank in the top 40 in overall offense and #2 in 3 point percentage. This is going to prove troublesome against Rutgers who doesn't defend the 3 well and can get lazy on defense. Additionally, Rutgers allows offense rebounding on 34% of their possessions which is going to be very troublesome because you can't give UConn second looks. UConn's defense is not as good as their offense but they still rank in the top 65 in the nation going up against a bottom 190 team. The concern I have for UConn is defending the glass as Rutgers is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation. However, UConn is top 20 in inside the arch defense and should get their fair share of steals and blocks as well. UConn 82 Rutgers 69