River City SharpsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Hawks / Bucks Under 195FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta comes into this game really, really banged upo as Jeff teague will not go for the Hawks. They also anticipate that DeMarre Carroll won't go tonight either, meaning the Hawks are going to rely heavily on a bench that last time out had their worst offensive showing of the season. The Bucks are flat terrible and really struggle to score points, so we think the value in this contest is with the UNDER 195. The reserves for Atlanta have not shot the ball well and Milwaukee virtually never shoots it well, so we're counting on an ugly one tonight at Bradley Center.
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Belmont -6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game is a rematch of one played just nine days ago, when Belmont traveled to EKU and left a 74-63 loser to the Colonels. These are two of the best teams in the OVC and Belmont really needs to protect their home floor tonight. They are coming off an impressive 14-point victory over Morehead State and have won 3 in a row, while the Colonels have won four straight. Statistically speaking, both of these teams are very similar, which leads you to question why we would have a six point favorite between two very similar teams and a situation where EKU won by 11 just nine days ago. We think they are trying to lure some "funny money" to the road dog here and we think you will get a focused, energized Belmont team tonight. We are going to side with the home favorite here.
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St Louis Blues -138FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Blues enter this game with a 34-11-5 record overall and a 16-6-3 road record. They are coming off a 2-1 win in New York Thursday night. The Islanders sit with a 21-25-7 record and just 8-10-7 at home. They are coming off a 6-4 loss vs Pittsburgh after winning their previous two games. While New York has been scoring goals lately they've also allowed 18 goals against over their last 4 games (4.5 per game). These two teams met in St Louis on December 5th with the Blues winning that meeting 5-1. St Louis has won 4 of these two teams last 5 meetings dating back to 2009. Tonight's starter for St Louis will be Jaroslav Halak who is 21-7-3 with a 2.28 GAA and .912 SV%. Over his last 5 games he has allowed just 7 goals against (and 1 or fewer in four of those starts). He has gotten wins in 5 of his last 6 starts. St Louis is 6-2 in their last 8 road games, 45-15 in their last 60 vs Eastern Conference opponents, and 51-21 in their last 72 vs a team with a losing record. The Islanders have won just 3 of their last 13 home games, and are 8-21 in their last 29 Saturday games. Take the Blues here laying some chalk.
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Columbus Blue Jackets -½ -125FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Buffalo Sabres have lost 5 straight games to fall to 13-29-7 on the season and 4-14-3 on the road. Although they've managed to score 3 goals in each of their last 5 games, they rank last in the NHL averaging just 1.76 goals per game are are 18th giving up 2.82 against per game. They are also the worst ranked team in the league in 5 on 5 play with a goals for to against ratio of just 0.61. The Blue Jackets are on an 8 game winning streak including recent 5-2 and 5-3 home wins vs Philadelphia and Los Angeles. Before that win they won a 4-3 shootout game in Buffalo as they out shot the Sabres 35-29. Columbus is now 26-20-4 on the season and 14-9-2 at home. The Blue Jackets rank 7th in the league scoring 2.88 goals per game and they are 11th in 5 on 5 play. Note Buffalo is just 1-8 in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Tonight we've got one of the hottest teams in the East who have won 8 straight and 5 straight at home versus the league's worst team that has won just 4 of 21 road games. I like the price we're getting on the Blue Jackets to win in regulation at home and continue their winning streak.
David Banks
Michigan +5.5
An in-state rivalry could give us perhaps the best matchup in the Big Ten this season on ESPN Saturday night when the third ranked Michigan State Spartans (18-1, 10-6-2 ATS) host the 21st ranked Michigan Wolverines (14-4, 9-6-1 ATS) from the Breslin Center at 7:00 ET. While the Spartans have tasted defeat only once to North Carolina here at home, they will probably be without starting center Adreian Payne for a fifth straight game here, which would take away the size advantage they would normally have over the Wolverines. That makes Michigan State vulnerable vs. a very hot Michigan team.
Michigan State is ranked eighth overall on the Pomeroy Ratings, meaning that the Spartans may be a tad overrated with their third ranking in the polls but are still excellent when at full strength, which unfortunately they are not right now without Payne's 16.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game and general inside presence at 6-foot-10. Yes, the Spartans have gone 4-0 in the games that Payne has missed, but they were taken to overtime by Minnesota, only beat Indiana by five points at home and beat a couple of teams in Illinois and Northwester that are ranked 84th and 142nd respectively on Pomeroy. Michigan is a much bigger threat than any of those teams and Matt Costello has averaged just 5.8 points and 3.8 rebounds the last four games while filling in for Payne. That lack of production could prove fatal here as no other Michigan State starter stands taller than 6-foot-6 and Keith Appling is now the only senior making any significant contributions. Garry Harris leads the team in scoring with his 18.3 points, but this could be the biggest game in the young sophomore's life so it remains to be seen how he reacts while being asked to carry this team on this big stage.
Michigan was just 6-4 after blowing a late lead at home to top ranked Arizona in a disappointing 72-70 loss back on December 14th, but the Wolverines have not lost since while reeling off eight straight wins, and at 6-0 in Big Ten play, they join Michigan State (7-0) as the only two teams undefeated in conference play, which is just another reason why is probably the biggest Big Ten game so far this season, especially with the Wolverines up to 10th on Pomeroy. And Michigan certainly has the offense to take advantage of the Spartans' lack of size, as the Wolverines are ranked third in the country in offensive efficiency and seventh in effective field goal percentage. Michigan is a good three-point shooting team at 38.2 percent, but the Wolverines are deadly closer to the basket ranking eighth in the land in two-point shooting at 55.5 percent, and that is where Michigan State will miss the presence of Payne the most. Michigan also ranks a good 46th in defensive efficiency, a ranking enhanced by ranking 15th in defensive rebounding percentage, and again, the Wolverines should now dominate in that department assuming Payne sits outs as expected.
Michigan is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up win and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.
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St. Joseph’s +4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Host Richmond is in a classic emotional “letdown” position after topping #13 ranked Massachusetts in a 58-55 thriller back on Wednesday where there home fans stormed the court after the final buzzer had sounded. My research indicates that in the past two years after a game where the offense was held to “60 or less” points on the scoreboard Richmond (1-8 ATS) has actually been a bet-against. Richmond has also had problems the past couple of seasons handling prosperity as after a stretch where they won outright at least 4 times in a six-game span, the Spiders (0-6 ATS) have been a financial disaster. It was back in early December when St. Josephs hit an absolute low point losing by a resounding 30 points versus Philadelphia area rival Villanova. However since that debacle St. Josephs has gone on a 9-1 straight up WINNING tear and are playing with an abundance of confidence.
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Texas Tech -1FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Most of our long-term clients probably already pencilled this one in as a play after seeing the opening line. We won with this angle the other night and although we don't play this system "blindly", we also really believe in rolling with it (as long as the team that needs to win isn't terrible!) For those of you that are new, the angle you play is when you have an unranked home favorite of between PK through -3 playing a ranked road dog, you ALWAYS PLAY the home team ATS. This system hits at over 75% and is one of the strongest systems we use. In terms of the game, we also like the fact that we have the home team coming off a loss as Tech dropped a six point decision to West Virginia earlier this week. Add to this the fact that Oklahoma won both games between these teams last season, and we think this is a very strong play today. Get this early as we think you will see the line move in favor of Texas Tech. We also like the fact that Tubby Smith is now on the sidelines for Tech and he has a history of being a really good motivator when his team needs to get up for a big home game. Everything we see here points to the home team.
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GONZAGA (-8) over BYUFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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BYU has to be exhausted after a triple overtime loss at Portland Thursday. Cougars top two player Nate Austin and Tyler Haws both played over 50 minutes and two other players logged over 40 minutes. That's bad news heading into face a Gonzaga squad that has owned the Cougars recently winning the last four games including the last two at Gonzaga by 11 and 20 points. More of the same today take Gonzaga over BYU.
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Drexel -4FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game is a similar situation to what we have in the EKU-Belmont game that we also have made a play on. These two teams played back on January 8th and Bill and Mary won a 85-73 decision at home. Now these two teams play again at Drexel, where Bruiser Flint's teams have traditionally been very difficult to beat. Drexel is also coming off a loss to league leader Delaware, while Bill and Mary were drummed by 17 points at Hofstra. After a rough start offensively, Drexel is scoring 78 points a game in conference and Flint's team have always been stellar on the defensive end. This game is about payback and we think you are going to get a solid performance from the home Dragons today.
Dr. Bob
Opinion - WAKE FOREST (-2) over Notre Dame
Wake Forest is 11-0 at home with wins over 3 teams that are better than Notre Dame (NC, St. Bonaventure, and Richmond). Notre Dame covered in their loss at Florida State but I still think the Irish are overrated and my ratings favor Wake Forest by 3 ½ points in this game. I’ll lean with the Demon Deacons at -2 or less and I’d take Wake Forest in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
Opinion - PROVIDENCE (-2) over Xavier
Xavier has covered the spread in 9 consecutive games but teams that covered their last 7 or more lined games are just 107-156-4 ATS on the road, including 42-80-1 ATS as an underdog against a .500 or better team. Providence is also playing well (4 straight wins and covers) and Xavier has been very lucky that their opponents have made just 62.1% of their free throws this season. That’s the lowest percentage in the nation and well below the 69.1% that their opponents combine to average for the season. Xavier isn’t going to be so lucky in this game given that Providence leads the nation with 80% free throw shooting as a team. My ratings make this game a pick after adjusting for Xavier’s lucky free throw shooting ‘defense’, so the line is a bit off. However, Providence applies to a 117-44-5 ATS home momentum situation and Xavier is due for a down game. I’ll lean with Providence at -2 or less and I’d take Providence in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.
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Kansas State +9.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We are going to take a side here with the road dog getting a generous amount of points in Kansas State. The home Cyclones are glad to be back at Hilton as they are mired in a three-game losing streak, while Kansas State was upended at Texas at the buzzer. Iowa State wants to get up and down the floor and score a lot of points, but the strength of Bruce Weber teams through the years has been their defense and we just think 9.5 points is too many to give a quality Wildcat team. Kansas State is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. That's good enough to go with the doggie.
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Maryland +4.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The last time Maryland played Pittsburg it ended in a rout loss with a final score of 59-79. Now, three weeks later, the Terrapins get the Panthers on their home court to avenge their humiliation. Maryland is a small dog at home, but I would not be surprised to see an outright win, especially playing in College Park.
John Ryan
IUPUI at IPFW
Play: IUPUI
Have to first admit, that I know very little about these teams, their players, and coaches. However, the SIM has graded this is a solid 5* money making opportunity based on the simulations and subsequent projections. The simulator shows a high probability that IUPUI will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Current line is 12 1/2 and I would not be surprised to see this line edge a little higher ahead of game time as the public takes the double digit favorite. Getting the line you are offered is perfectly fine for this [lay and any of my releases. Rarely, does the hook come into play, BUT it never hurts to shop for the best number. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 118-63 ATS mark for 65% winners since 2008. Play on underdogs of 10 or more points (IUPUI) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread and is now facing an opponent after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread. This line is already inflated by 33% reflecting the most recent trends by both teams in this matchup. Ft. Wayne has struggled mightily on the defensive end in multiple games this season and it stands to logic that they will take for granted that a 'W' is already theirs in this matchup. Obviously, I think IUPUI will test them fully and cover easily.
Matt Fargo
Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland +4½
Pittsburgh is coming off a blowout victory against Clemson on Tuesday as it won by 33 points and was able to shake off the tough loss at Syracuse on Saturday. Now the Panthers hit the road again to take on Maryland for the second time this season. The Panthers defeated the Terrapins by 20 points earlier this month which sets up a great revenge situation for Maryland. We are also getting some added line value. The Panthers were favored by nine points in that game which would equate to them being about a one points favorite here based on venue change and that is clearly not the case as Maryland is catching a much higher number. Maryland has dropped three of its last four games but all of those defeats have come on the road. The Terrapins are 2-0 straight up and ATS in home ACC games and this is the first game this year they are listed as a home underdog. Maryland is 5-2 after a loss this season and going back it is 8-2 in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. Meanwhile the Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win and they fall into a negative situation where we play against favorites with a winning percentage of .800 or better that are coming off a win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last five seasons.
Freddy Wills
Northwestern +10
I like Northwestern to cover this game as it is a revenge game for Northwestern who lost 67-93 on the road against Iowa earlier in the season. Iowa has been a completely different team on the road this year losing 3 of 4 and Northwestern will play much better than they did in the first game where they allowed Iowa to shoot 57% from the 3. There is not that big of a difference between these two teams.
The biggest reason why I like this play is Northwestern's ability to defend inside the 3 which is where Iowa will take 78% of their shots on average in road games, because they are only shooting 27.8% from three on the road. Northwestern just so happens to defend the 2 point game very well ranked 53rd in the country. In the first match up they did not defend well and they will make the necessary adjustments as they are averaging 7.6% better on 2 point defense at home than they are on the road.
Jeff Alexander
Georgetown +12
Line line is an overreaction to Creighton's blowout win at Villanova. The Hoyas have dropped 3 straight and will leave it all on the floor to try to get off the snide. Georgetown is 8-1 ATS the last 3 season on the road if it enters with one or more consecutive defeats. It has an impressive average winning margin of 14.0 points in these games. The Hoyas are a solid 41-29 ATS as an underdog under John Thompson III. They are also 28-17 ATS under his watch in road games against teams with a win percentage above 80%. Bet Georgetown.
Steve Janus
St John's +4
This may seem like a good spot to jump on Butler at home, but the Bulldogs are simply not the same caliber of a team without Brad Stevens on the sidelines. The Bulldogs are a miserable 1-6 in their last 7 games with the only win coming in overtime against Marquette. St John's has rebounded from five straight losses with back-to-back wins over Dartmouth and Seton Hall. Steve Lavin's club is simply underrated right now and should not be catching 4-points against a struggling Butler team.
St. John's a history of playing well on the road, as they are 50-30 ATS in their last 80 road games on Saturday. Butler on the other hand is a mere 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games played on Saturday and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs a team with a winning record.