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Evansville +6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Solid Cover team on the road in the Mo Valley and Illinois State not a team that should be laying this big of a number to a very pesky team who gives everyone fits on the road. The Purple invaders get the cover.
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia State +7 over DREXEL: The Dragons come in having won 2 in a row, but those were on the road and this team has struggled at home. The Dragons are 1-5 SU at home and have now gone 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games, plus they are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Today Drexel is playing a fired up Panther squad that has won 4 in a row and is looking for revenge for a 17 home loss to the Dragons earlier in the year. The Panthers are rolling on offense right now as they have averaged 75.6 ppg in their last 5 games, while the Dragons have struggled to score, putting up just 56.2 ppg on 38% shooting over that same span and those last 5 games includes an OT game. Drexel is 4-13 ATS overall this year and that should go to 4-14 as the Panthers are playing too well right now to lose big.
More Later
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit vs. Loyola Chicago
Play: Detroit
The records may look the same. However the RPI tells the story in this one as Detroit is ranked 103 while playing the 83rd toughest schedule. Loyola has played a soft schedule ranked 267th overall. Loyola has lost all 3 times vs teams ranked from 100 to 150 in the RPI and are 6-25 vs teams that average 77 or more points long term. In games as a home dog of 3 or less they have lost the last 3 times. The capper though is their 1-17 mark in the second half vs winning teams. Detroit is 14-7 as a road favorite of 3 or less and 25-6 vs teams who score 65 or less and have won the last 6 times in this series. Look for Detroit to win and cove minus the small number.
Jason Sharpe
Belmont (-13) over Morehead State
One of college basketball's most underrated and unknown top programs, the Belmont Bruins hit the road in this one, and this is a team that not only wins games but also they will also bury teams along the way. Look no further than the fact that 12 of their 15 wins this year have come by double-digits or more, including three of their first six conference games being by 30+ victories or higher. The Bruins joined the OVC this season from the Atlantic Sun, and they have made a mockery of this league early on with a 6-0 start to their year and no game being decided by less than seven points overall.
As much as I like Belmont, this play is mainly about betting against Morehead State in this game. At 10-10 on the season, most see what looks to be an average team right now, but the reality is that only one of their 10 wins have come against a team that was ranked better than 240th thus far. In fact, even worse is their average loss has been by over 13 points per game so far this season.
Belmont can pick their score here in this one, and usually when placed in this type of situation the Bruins will continue to pour it on. Take Belmont minus the points here in this one.
Allen Eastman
Take Syracuse (-8.5) over Villanova
This is where I think that the line will be. And I think that the Orange are going to take care of business Saturday morning in Philadelphia. Villanova played the Orange tough two weeks ago. But the Orange pulled away for an 11-point win. That game was the first one that the Orange played without suspended James Southerland. You could tell it had an impact. But they are used to being without him now. Syracuse won at Louisville last week, and they can get this road win. Villanova is in a letdown spot. They had a big comeback win over Louisville at home, and I don't think that they are going to get the job done against two Top 10 teams in the same week.
Robert Ferringo
Iowa State (-5) over Kansas State
This is a massive letdown spot for Kansas State. They just went toe-to-toe at home with in-state rival Kansas and came up short. Now they need to go into a hornet's nest in Ames and face a very feisty Cyclones team. Kansas State has only played three true road games all season (four if you count the Gonzaga game), and they haven't performed very well. They were blasted by Gonzaga and barely beat GW and West Virginia, neither of whom is as good as Iowa State. The Cyclones have only lost one game since Dec. 8, and that was an overtime loss in Lawrence against Kansas. Iowa State is undefeated at home this year, and they are going to be infinitely more excited about knocking off a Top-15 team than that Top-15 team is going to be to face Iowa State.
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PHILADELPHIA (+3) over NY KnicksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Classic sandwich spot for the Knicks, who are coming off a gratifying road win over rival Boston on Thursday night and have a date with the surprising Atlanta Hawks on deck. Meanwhile, the 76ers will be fully focused on this one since they got drilled by the Knicks in two games during a back-to-back series in November and will be looking for revenge. Philly is also 11-4 ATS the last three years when cast as a home dog of three point or less. Take the points!
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Ohio University Bobcats at Kent State Golden Flashes
Play: Kent State Golden FlashesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The (14-5) Ohio University bobcats of the MAC East division will take on the (11-8) Kent State Golden Flashes also of the MAC East division in 2013 NCAA Basketball action. Ohio University is only 2-7 Against The spread their last 9 vs. The MAC. The Bobcats are 4-2 their last 6 ATS vs. Kent State. Kenst State has lost their last 2 both straight up and ATS, but the Flashes will be ready for this one. Kent State gets the home cover.
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Maryland +12 over DUKEFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While most people will shy away from betting against Duke following a humiliating defeat, history tells us otherwise. Backing Duke after a straight up loss against an ACC rival has been a bankroll killer over the years and this one is likely to follow that trend. Three of the Blue Devils’ top scorers went 1-29 from the floor against Miami's high ranked defense and that's significant because aside from the obvious concern with that shooting stat, the Terrapins rank #2 in the country in FG % allowed.
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The Terps will not only play physically but they will slow this game down to a crawl and that's something the Blue Devils are rarely comfortable with. Maryland has not lost by this margin to anyone all season long and that includes a 7-point loss to Miami. This is the type of game that could punch their ticket to the dance should they be on the bubble come March. Once again you will be paying a premium to wager on the #1 ranked team in the nation but the double-digits being offered makes the visitor the clear choice here.
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IOWA STATE -4 over Kansas StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If you happened to catch that K-State/Kansas battle then you are quite aware of the emotional roller coaster ride that took place throughout. That game was a battle right to the end and the Wildcats came up just short in a demoralizing loss. You could see it on their faces as they walked off the court and asking them to bounce back on the road in the very next game is a tall task indeed.
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There's even better news. Iowa State is coming off a humbling loss at Texas Tech in a game in which they were favored by 10½. That can't be sitting well with them and a response is likely. The Cyclones are averaging 79 points per game at home this season, where they have yet to lose. The result of each team’s last game has influenced this number to one that we can certainly take advantage of. Look for Iowa State to win this one handily.
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Oklahoma +13½ over KANSASFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a great time of year to be looking strongly at some live dogs because football season is done and the betting sector now has to look at alternatives. These highly popular and ranked teams are usually overpriced and we find another example of it here. The Jayhawks are ranked #3 in the country. They seldom lose in Lawrence, where the most passionate fans in the nation pack the house for every game. However, Kansas is coming off that intense, hard-fought win over in-state rival, K-State. It is just so difficult for these kids to match the same intensity and emotions in back-to-back ball games. We witness it time and time again, with most recent example being Syracuse's narrow win over Cincinnati after that huge win over then #1 Louisville.
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The Sooners were crushed here last season. This year's Sooners are unlike that one. When they faced Kansas last year, they were playing out their schedule. This time around, Oklahoma is playing with confidence, they're relevant again and they're also playing for a piece of first place in the Big-12. OU is not on the same level as Kansas in terms of talent but they're taking back big points in a strong situational spot and that commonly gets the money.
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Quinton Jackson +290 over Glover TeixeiraFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The highly touted newcomer faces off against the veteran on his way out. Facing his first big name opponent, the UFC would love nothing more than for Glover Teixeira to defeat Quinton Jackson and further establish himself in the light heavyweight division. But beating the man known as “Rampage” is not an easy task. Jackson would love to keep this fight standing and certainly has the wrestling capable of doing that. The problem with him lately has seemingly been a lack of motivation or distractions outside of the octagon. Those fears are now gone, as Jackson has looked healthier and more motivated than he has in a long time. Being the last fight on his UFC contract, nothing would help Rampage more than a victory. Also, nothing would please Jackson more than messing up the UFC’s plans while doing so.
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While Teixeira has looked impressive and definitely has the ability to win this fight, he has shown that he can get careless in his exchanges, leaving openings for his opponent to tag him and making a mistake like that against a striker like Jackson can prove costly. We are banking on Jackson being the hungrier, more aggressive fighter and goading Teixeira into a boxing match where Jackson has the advantage. At the price that he is being offered it is definitely an investment worth making.
Dr. Bob
Saturday Daytime College Opinions
SOUTH FLORIDA (+4 ½) over Notre Dame
Notre Dame has been a streaky team under coach Mike Brey and right now the Irish are not playing well, winning just 1 of their last 4 games while going 0-4 ATS. Notre Dame is only 24-52-5 ATS as a favorite following a loss under coach Brey, including 11-33-5 ATS as a conference favorite after a conference loss. South Florida is once again a good defensive team and the Bulls’ normally inconsistent offense should perform at a decent level against a Notre Dame that is just average defensively on a national scale. My ratings favor Notre Dame by 3 points, so there is some line value to go along with the team trend. I’ll lean with USF at +4 or more.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-9 ½) over West Virginia
Oklahoma State is a team that tends to beat up on the teams that they are supposed to beat while struggling against other good teams. In 5 seasons under coach Travis Ford the Cowboys are 45-17-4 ATS as a favorite and only 24-40-2 ATS as an underdog or pick. Oklahoma State’s sweet spot is as a favorite from 3 to 10 ½ points (25-4-2 ATS) and West Virginia has had trouble against good teams this season and the Mountaineers, who are coming off an easy 21 point win over TCU, are not as good after a win as they’ve been after a loss under coach Bobby Huggins. Huggins’ teams have always been good after a loss but West Virginia is just 24-39-2 ATS in conference games after a victory under Huggins, including 3-13-1 ATS recently. My ratings favor Oklahoma State by 12 points with the standard letdown factor included. However, the Cowboys don’t letdown against lesser teams, they play better. I’ll lean with Oklahoma State at -10 or less and I’d take Oklahoma State a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 or less.
Boston College (+9) over VIRGINIA
Boston College is just 1-4 in ACC play but all 4 of those losses were by 5 points or fewer and Steve Donahue’s teams is 4-0 ATS as a conference dog of 3 points or more. Donahue’s teams have always been good as a dog and especially on the road. In fact, Donahue’s career record (at Cornell prior to coming to BC in 2010) on the road is now 84-46-3 ATS, including 18-7 ATS with BC. Donahue is 45-18 ATS in road games following a loss and his Eagles are 11-1 ATS as an ACC road dog of more than 8 points. Virginia is also blessed with a very good head coach in Tony Bennett, but Bennett is at his best when he has time to prepare for an opponent. Virginia is 52-37-1 ATS in all regular season games under Bennett, but the Cavaliers are 32-12 ATS if Bennett has had 3 or more days off between games to prepare and only 20-25-1 ATS with 2 or fewer days to prepare, including 8-16-1 ATS in ACC play (1-7-1 ATS since the beginning of last season). My ratings favor Virginia by only 7 ½ points and I’ll lean with the Eagles based on the coaching trends. I’d take Boston College in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
John Ryan
Tennessee Martinsville at SIU-Edwardsville
Play: Tennessee Martinsville
The simulator shows a high probability that (TM) will lose this game by fewer than five points. I like playing these dogs as a combination bet using an 8* amount on the line and a 2* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-11 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 2006. Play against a home team (SIUE) that is an average defensive team allowing 42.5 to 45% shooting and is now facing a struggling defensive team allowing 45 to 47.5% shooting after 15+ games and in a game involving two average ball handling teams committing between 14.5 and 17.5 turnovers per game. SIUE plays a grinding methodical ?old school? style of game and this plays to the strengths of (TM). One thing that is absolutely required in defending a team like SIUE is patience on both ends of the court and this is something I see bing a strength of (TM) as they are a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 3 seasons. Take Tennessee Martin.
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Nashville -104 over ANAHEIMFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. No team in the NHL gets less press than these Predators and with just one win in four tries, they're the NHL's most undervalued team right now. The loss of Ryan Suter via free agency adds to their lack of appeal but we're not buying any of that. They still have Shea Weber. They picked up a talent in Paul Gaustad and he'll be back in the lineup tonight after missing the last three games. Nashville has toughness, speed, great defense, solid goaltending and when it's all said and done, they're very likely going to be near the top of the standings again. They also play strongly on these West Coast swings, having posted a winning record in each of the last three years to Western USA.
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The Ducks opening night 7-3 win in Vancouver instantly put them on most people's radar. They followed that up with a 5-4 road win in Calgary and returned home last night where the Canucks avenged that season opener with a resounding 5-0 victory. The Ducks nearly blew a 3-0 lead to Calgary, they've allowed 12 goals against in three games and have been outplayed in their last two. Sloppy play in their own end cost them plenty last year and it appears that hasn't been rectified. Against the methodical and relentless forechecking of the Preds, it's likely going to cost them again.
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Edmonton/CALGARY Over 5½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A week into the season and anyone that has watched a lot of games can't help but notice the inordinate increase in penalties being called. Not only are more being called but they're being called in succession, overlapping the first call and creating more 5 on 3's than ever. These are not isolated incidents. This is occurring in just about every game. There's been an average of 14 penalties a game. That's nearly half the game being played on the power-play. The linesmakers haven't adjusted yet and it's something we'll look to take advantage of.
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Three or four games in and players are getting their legs under them and getting used to playing with one another again. The Oilers are a big offensive threat. After playing the strong defenses of Vancouver, San Jose and Los Angeles, that strong firepower is likely to be on full display here. Defensively, they're a young and mistake prone team that gives up far too many scoring chances. Calgary netted four against a similar styled Ducks squad and it wouldn't surprise to see a similar output here. This one could go over early.
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New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tough spot here for the Knicks who have had a trying schedule as of late. A trip to London to play the Pistons followed by an in-state showdown with Brooklyn and hated rival Boston. The prior two games both going down to the wire. Now New York takes on a struggling Philadelphia team in which it beat by 12 and 16 point margins in the only two meetings this season. But the most important reason we will go against New York here is that Raymond Felton is returning to the lineup. He's missed the past 12 games and it takes time for any key player to adjust himself back into the lineup, especially the point guard. Philadelphia has played 4 of 5 games at home and they start an eight game home stand here. They are well rested having had the previous three days off and primed to get back into the playoff discussion.
Dave Price
Sacramento Kings +13
I expect Denver to be complacent this evening. It has had two days off and will be looking right past a Kings team it defeated by 25 points last month and ahead to Monday's matchup with the Pacers. This will be the Kings third game in 4 days but I believe oddsmakers have overfigured their lack of rest into this line. Consider that underdogs of 10 or more points that have failed to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games, provided they are playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 55-24 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 12.6 points on average but have lost by just 9.7 points on average. Take the points.