Jeff Alexander
Washington Wizards +2
Look for the Wizards to add to their 9-0 ATS run. The Bulls check in off a blowout win and cover against the Warriors last night but are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest. With Derrick Rose still out and Luol Deng likely to miss with a hamstring injury, the Bulls will be lacking some scoring punch. The Washington offense has been playing well since the return of John Wall and I expect him to be a handful for the Bulls this evening.
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LaSalle Explorers +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We're going to grab double-digit points with a fundamentally sound LaSalle Explorers outfit that gets excellent guard play. You have to take care of the ball against a VCU team that leads the nation in creating turnovers taking the ball away 29.6% of opposing possessions and that's exactly what we get in LaSalle. This is not the greatest spot for the Rams who had their hearts torn out in their last, losing for the first time since Thanksgiving. In that game vs cross-town rival Richmond, VCU led by seven with :40 seconds left before eventually falling in overtime to the red-hot shooting Spiders. LaSalle has struggled somewhat on the road going 4-4 (2-4 ATS) but is coming off a huge home gut check win over Butler in their last where they could have folded their tents several times but found a way to win. Thinking that LaSalle will play their normal disciplined take care of the ball game while Shaka and his troops will be satisfied to just get back in the win column. VCU probably wins this game but not by the way we keep score. Take LaSalle.
Jeff Scott Sports
POWER ANGLE OF THE DAY--- I didn't make a play on this game but I found a solid Angle I thought i would pass along, courtesy of the Playbook Basketball newsletter. The Rice Owls are 11-38-1 ATS in SU losses vs a team they beat twice the year before. Rice is at Tulane today.
4 UNIT PLAY
Northwestern/ Nebraska over 115.5: Both of these teams play at a slow pace, but I still expect this one to hit the 120"s at least. Northwestern's road games this year have averaged 127.6 ppg and all three of the conference road games this year have put up at least 120 points. The Cats have averaged 65.8 ppg on the road this year, while Nebraska has allowed 65.6 ppg in their last 5 games overall, including 68 ppg in their last 2 home games vs the big 10. Nebraska home games this year have averaged 115.1 ppg, but their last 2 conference home games have put up 121+ points. Nebraska doe struggle to score (57.5 ppg at home), but the Cats have allowed 61.8 ppg on the road. I see this as a close physical game that should also lead to allot of FT's and that should put us over the top in the end. I clearly expect this one in the 120's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Georgia State +7 over DREXEL: The Dragons come in having won 2 in a row, but those were on the road and this team has struggled at home. The Dragons are 1-5 SU at home and have now gone 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games, plus they are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Today Drexel is playing a fired up Panther squad that has won 4 in a row and is looking for revenge for a 17 home loss to the Dragons earlier in the year. The Panthers are rolling on offense right now as they have averaged 75.6 ppg in their last 5 games, while the Dragons have struggled to score, putting up just 56.2 ppg on 38% shooting over that same span and those last 5 games includes an OT game. Drexel is 4-13 ATS overall this year and that should go to 4-14 as the Panthers are playing too well right now to lose big.
North Carolina +5 over NC STATE: The Heels are starting to play much better as they have won 3 in a row, and are trying to fight their way back into the top 25. On the other side NC State seems to be headed the other way. After they beat Duke they have gone 1-2, which includes a 1 points loss at Maryland, a 4 point home win over Clemson and a shocking 2 point road to Wake Forest. This is not a team playing all that well right now and facing a team you've lost 13 in a row outright to may not be the best medicine for them to get back on track. The Road team is 7-3 ATS the last 10 and I will glad take the points with the more desperate team that is playing better at the moment. Look for an outright Heels win here.
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Ohio vs. Kent
Play: OhioFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There have been few home courts that have been as good to this bureau over the years as the MAC Center of Kent St. Yet my allegiance is to winning money for you, not following history. The previous three years, Kent was 38-7 SU in this fortress. And in the last 22 years, the Golden Flashes have recorded a mark of 81-38 ATS home to -9 in con play. But this is a rebuilding year for 2nd year HC Senderoff. He has just one RS, lost 6/8 top scorers, and has 4 frosh and 3 transfers. As a result, this season the Flashes are 6-5 SU on this court, 1-6 ATS. Including 0-2 SUATS in league, with losses by 12 to Toledo and 4 to Akron. Enter Ohio U who looks to keep pace with Akron, as each are an undefeated 5-0 in league play. Interesting sidelight to the game, is the fact that 1st year Ohio HC Christian was head man at Kent for 6 years (crafting much of their positive home court record), before his interim job at TCU. In returning to Ohio, he inherited the Bobcats top nine returning scorers from an NCAA team lead by strong guard play of veterans Cooper and Offutt.. The Bobcats are again in the mix for an NCAA bid. Look for the better team to get the victory on a home court which is quickly declining in strength.
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Minnesota + over WisconsinFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota enters this game in a desperate situation after three consecutive losses have bounced the Gophers from the top 10. Minnesota shot just 33 percent in the game against Northwestern earlier this week and somehow lost despite a 42-23 rebound edge. Very poor shooting, especially at the free throw line for the Gophers led to the upset loss as Northwestern had nearly twice as many attempts at the line. Minnesota is still one of the top teams in the conference and the Gophers will face off against a Wisconsin team that has dropped back-to-back close games. Off the huge win over Indiana, Wisconsin fell to Iowa and then played terribly in a narrow loss to Michigan State back at home. Wisconsin is just 6-11 ATS this season as this is a team that has not been as good as past units under Bo Ryan and this team can be often overvalued for a strong home court that has not been as tough as it used to be. The Badgers have lost twice at home already this year and Minnesota will not be thrown off by the more deliberate pace that the Badgers employ. Minnesota is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and Wisconsin won't enjoy the inside edge it often holds and the guard play for the Gophers should be superior. Two of Minnesota's losses came against top 10 teams Indiana and Michigan in games where they fell behind early, that will be a point of emphasis for this squad and Minnesota has been a great road performer, covering in 10 of the last 11 road contests while the Badgers have been on a recent ATS slide, dropping seven of the last 10. Wisconsin is short-handed right now with Frank Kaminsky out of action and the flu going around, impacting George Marshall and possibly others. The Badgers are also one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation, a weakness that will continue to burn them in these tight Big Ten affairs.
NHL Predictions
Avalanche / Sharks Under 5.5
The Avalanche enter this afternoon game in San Jose with a 2-1 record, beating Columbus and Los Angeles at home and losing to Minnesota on the road. The Sharks are 3-0 to start the year with wins over Calgary and Edmonton on the road and Phoenix at home. Semyon Varlamov will get the start for Colorado and he is 2-1 on the season with a 1.68 GAA and .948 SV%. Antti Niemi is probable today for the Sharks, although not confirmed for the start of a back to back, but he is 3-0 with a 2.34 GAA and .927 SV%. Although these two teams went over the total in 3 of their 4 meetings last season, the UNDER is still 10-4 in their last 14 meetings in San Jose. The UNDER is 20-9-9 in the Avalanche last 38 vs Western Conference opponents. Both teams are riding hot goalies right now and I expect this one to stay UNDER 5.5 goals.
Chicago Blackhawks -152
Chicago is probably the hottest team in the NHL starting off 4-0 and 3-0 on the road. The Blackhawks have beaten Los Angeles, Phoenix, St Louis, and Dallas to start the year and now go into Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets. Columbus is 1-2-1 to start the year with a season opener win in Nashville and a shootout loss vs Detroit. Steve Mason will get the start in net tonight for Columbus and he is 0-1 with a 5.01 GAA and .881 SV%. Last year he really struggled with a 16-26-3 record, 3.39 GAA, and .894 SV%, which was his third straight year with a GAA higher than 3.00. Chicago won all 6 meetings between these two teams last year with margins of victory 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, and 3. Chicago is also 20-8 in their last 28 meetings with Columbus and 6-0 in their last 6 meetings in Columbus. The Blue Jackets are just 14-40 in their last 54 divisional games, and 15-38 in their last 53 vs a team with a winning % higher than .600. Chicago has scored 3+ goals in all 4 games, and I expect that to continue here tonight with Mason in net for the Blue Jackets. Take the Blackhawks.
Wunderdog
Belmont at Eastern Kentucky
Pick: Belmont -5
Belmont is a solid, small-conference program, and moved up a notch by entering the OVC this season. They have yet to lose a game in conference play on their way to an overall 16-4 record on the season. The Bruins have been NCAA Tourney bound the last two years, and have the pedigree to get there again. Eastern Kentucky is also 16-4, and has been flawless at home where they are 10-0 on the season, but looking over the schedule of teams they have beaten here shows nothing even close to noteworthy, and I think they have met their match in this one. Eastern Kentucky has been a very telling 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Play on Belmont.
Andre Gomes
Knicks / 76ers Over 191
Jason Kidd will be playing tonight even though he is struggling with a back injury, Raymond Felton is returning tonight from his finger injury while Pablo Prigioni is also struggling with a sore foot, so this is a great opportunity for Philadelphia's offense to explore their matchup edge with Jrue Holiday tonight. Thaddeus Young is also likely to have an edge on offense against the Knicks's power forwards (Melo and Amare). Philadelphia's problems is on the rest of the lineup, as they shoot a lot of long range shots, but without great efficiency. However, the Knicks have a poor 16-23 feet defense by allowing 45% FG from this area over their last 10 games! I expect the Sixers to come super aggressive for tonight's game in order to take advantage of the Knicks's old backcourt pushing up the pace when they get the ball.
With Raymond Felton back in the lineup, the Knicks's offense will immediately improve their ability on dribble penetrations, while Felton is also important for the team's ball movement and to put the ball in Tyson Chandler near the basket as well, something that both Jason Kidd and Pablo Prigioni couldn't do with success. One of the biggest problems of the Sixers's defense this season has been on pick and roll ball handler plays, where they are #24 by allowing 0.84 PPP for the season and 0.94 PPP over their last 10 games. With Felton back, the Knicks have great skills on this kind of plays to torch Philadelphia's defense. I see this game being a high scoring game, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.
Hollywood Sports
Fullerton State at Pacific
Prediction: Pacific
Pacific enters this game coming off their 63-58 win versus UC-Riverside on Thursday -- and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games following a victory. The Tigers failed to cover the 13.5-point spread in that contest but they have still covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Big West opponents. Additionally, in their last 7 games on their home court, Pacific has covered the spread in 5 of these contests. The Tigers are 5-2 in conference play as compared to Cal-State Fullerton's 4-3 mark -- but the deeper metrics suggest that there is wide divide between these two teams. Pacific has a conference net Efficiency Margin of +0.12 Points-Per-Possession (Offensive PPP: 1.08; Defensive PPP: 0.96). The Titans, on the other hand, possess a -0.01 PPP net Efficiency Margin (Offensive PPP: 1.16; Defensive PPP: 1.17) in Big West play -- saddled by the conference's worst defensive efficiency metric. Cal-State Fullerton does come off a 95-88 win versus UC-Davis on Thursday -- but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games following a victory. The Titans are also just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Lay the points with Pacific in this one.
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles vs. Phoenix
Pick: Los Angeles
The defending Stanley Cup champs are still winless on the season, and they will look to get the monkey off their back on the road in Phoenix tonight. The Kings won the cup last year with stifling defense and stellar goaltending, and Jonathan Quick is coming off his best performance of the young season on the road in Edmonton.
Quick stopped 37 shots, and shutout the Oilers for all but four seconds of regulation.
The Coyotes will be without starting netminder Mike Smith, allowing former Kings goalie Jason LaBarbera to get the start against his former team. LaBarbera is 1-1 with a 2.78 GAA in two starts this season. He did not look particularly sharp in his last start against San Jose, allowing four goals on 34 shots and losing 5-3.
With L.A. in a desperate situation, I expect to see the Kings really tighten up, much like they did on the road against Edmonton in their last game, coming within four seconds of winning the game 1-0.
This time I don't expect a last second comeback, but rather a King's victory with Quick shutting the door.