Jack Jones
Phoenix Suns +4
The Phoenix Suns should not be an underdog at home. They have certainly been disappointing in the early going, but as a result, this team is showing excellent value tonight. The Memphis Grizzlies are still playing without their best player in Zach Randolph, and they are way overvalued because of it.
This play falls into system that is 44-13 (77.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (PHOENIX) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Bet the Suns Saturday.
John Ryan
Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State
Play: Virginia Cavaliers +2
5* graded play on Virginia as they take on North Carolina State in ACC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Virginia will win this game by three or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-6 ATS for 84% winners since 2006. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is a struggling offensive team scoring between 63 and 67 points per game and now facing an average defensive team allowing 67 to 74 PPG, after 15 or more games have been played and after a combined score of 115 points or less. There are many criteria to this system, but each one supports Virginia in this game and under scores the advantages Virginia has offensively against a largely inconsistent NC State defense. UVA ranks 248th scoring 64.4 PPG, 207th getting 34.3 boards per game, 187 getting 12.7 assists per game, and 90th connecting on 45.7% of their shot attempts. This offense will be going up against State’s 201st scoring defense allowing 68.6 PPG and I strongly believe UVA will have one of their best offensive games tonight. UVA defense ranks second in the nation allowing 50.1 PPG. first allowing just 7.1 assists per game, and best allowing just 27.2 opponent rebounds per game. I strongly believe that the UVA defense will overwhelm NC State and ultimately UB+VA will dominate both ends of the floor. Take Virginia.
Gregg Price
West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -9½
This has blowout written all over it. W.V. has had some good teams over the last decade right? Well they have only beaten Cuse once over the last 8 years. And have only covered twice. Take Syracuse as your early blowout winner.
MTi Sports
Lakers at Bucks
Play: Under
The Lakers are 0-12 OU (-13.5 ppg) since February 10, 2010 after a win in which Derek Fisher had more turnovers than assists and 0-7 OU (-19.8 ppg) after playing the Clippers. Consider LA and Milwaukee UNDER.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Kansas State -11.5
Since taking a 9-point loss at Oklahoma on Jan. 14, K-State has rattled off 3 straight wins. Now, it will be out for revenge against the Sooners. Revenge has been a solid angle to play when dealing with the Wildcats, who are 12-4 ATS in home games when out to avenge a loss to an opponent under the watch of Frank Martin. K-State defeated the Sooners by 15 points in last season's home meeting, and I expect a similar result today.
Sam Martin
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
Prediction: Texas A&M
We'll fade Oklahoma State in their obvious letdown spot as they take to the road here immediately following their huge upset win against Missouri earlier this week. Cowboys broke out with a 60% shooting performance in that game - far and above their season average 42% shooting on the season and they entered that game against the Tigers as the worst shooting team in the Big 12. Bad teams coming off upset wins are always a great wagering opportunity to fade, especially when they play their next game away from home. We'll back that strategy here today.
Nelly
Virginia + over NC State
Virginia has two ACC losses but they came by a combined total of five points, playing Duke very tough in Durham and losing narrowly in a grind it out game with rival Virginia Tech. Virginia has won a few games by blowout margins despite being a team known for defense, they won by 32 at Georgia Tech and won by 17 against Boston College earlier in the week. NC State was blown out on Thursday against rival North Carolina and there could be a letdown factor. The Wolfpack own a 4-2 ACC record but the wins have come against four of the worst teams in the conference, as did one of the losses. Virginia has not played an overly difficult schedule but the ball control offense makes them a very good road underdog. In road games Virginia is allowing just 56 points per game, holding foes to just 24 percent 3-point shooting. The Cavaliers have some of the best defensive numbers in the nation and NC State won’t be able to match that intensity. Virginia has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams with five consecutive covers as NC State continues to struggle in the middle-of-the-pack in the ACC and the hot start will prove to be a mirage. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last twelve meetings between these teams.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Purdue/ Northwestern Under 139: Purdue has had some problems shooting and scoring of late as they have put up just 61 ppg in their last 2 games. Purdue has had problems scoring a bit in the Big 10 as they have put up 64 points or less in 4 of their last 6 conference games and they have averaged just 60 ppg in their last 3 conference games away from home. The teams they have struggled in putting up points against (Mich, Mich State, Wisc and PSU) all have played good defense this year and they Cats are no different, especially at home. Overall teh Cats have allowed a respectable 67.3 ppg on 43.2 % shooting, but at home they have allowed just 60.4 ppg on 40.9% shooting. They have played solid defense at home, and they have allowed just 62.3 ppg in their Big 10 home games as well. Purdue at the defensive end has struggled some, especially on the road where they have allowed 71.2 ppg on 48.65 shooting, but I don't feel that the Cats can take advantage too much here. northwestern has put up 69.9 ppg at home, but most of that was due to early season success. once the Big 10 slate has started for the Cats they have had problems scoring, putting up just 61.7 ppg on 42% shooting. another factor is FT shooting, wher the Cats have hit just 69% of their FT's, while Purdue has hit just 63.2% of theirs. Really, with a couple of struggling offenses and some average defensive play, this has the feel of a game where neither team will reach 70 points and we would need at least one of them to do so in order for this one to lose. I'll call for a game in the lower 130's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma State/ Texas A&M Over 119: Last night I came up with a simple little formula for totals and it went 3-1 in my CBB totals plays. Not sure if it has been thought of before, but it was some thing I was looking at. I took each teams combined points scored and allowed in 3 different categories. Home/Away conference games and Last 5 and then averaged them out and came up with a project total points scored. It helps to see where the value may lie. In this game using the formula I come up with a projected outcome of 130.3 points scored, which is 11.3 points higher than this line and I would say that's value. Neither team will look to push the ball in a game, but these two teams have been involved in some higher scoring games than normal of late. OSU had been playing solid defense this year, but in their last 5 games they have allowed 76 ppg, while in the same time they have average 68.4 ppg, for a combined total of 144.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Their road games this year have 135.4 ppg, thanks mainly to the fact that they have allowed 74.2 ppg on the road and that's good for an offensively challenged A&M squad, although they have averaged 65.6 ppg at home on the year. A&M has been tough at the defensive end this year, but it has been breaking down a bit of late as they have allowed 64.8 ppg in their last 5. Two struggling defenses should make for easier scoring for two teams that have not been known for putting a bunch of points on the board this year.
Louisville/ Seton Hall Over 128.5 : Google News Play (the Google writeup will be up at 4pm Update. Louisville is usually a very good defensive squad, but recently that has not been true. The Cardinals come in allowing 71.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall and they have allowed 67.7 ppg on the road this year. Now they get to face a Seton Hall team that has put up 72.4 ppg at home. The Hall did score just 42 points vs Notre Dame in their last game, but I don't expect 15 of 57 shooting from them here. The should bounce back with a solid offensive showing in this one. The Cardinals have had some inconsistencies on offense this year, but now that they are back to pushing the tempo a bit more they have averaged 74 ppg in their last 4 games and i do expect them to continue to push tempo here. Seton Hall has played good defense at home (60.4 ppg), but overall this unit has broken down some as they have allowed 67 ppg in their last 4 games and I don't see a reason why Louisville cant grab at least that much. I already stated that I expect Louisville to push the ball and that seems to be fine for a Seton Hall team that is 61st in the nation in shots per game (58 spg), while in the Big East that number jumps a bit to 60.3 spg. I really expect a fast paced game that should put around 140 points on the board.
2 UNIT PLAY
Mississippi State +9.5 over FLORIDA: Google News Play. Ok so Florida is 12-0 at home and they have really pasted their opponents on their home floor, but I do not believe any of their home opponents had the talent that the Bulldogs do. This Mississippi State team is very good at 17-4 and when they have lost it has not been by that much. two of the Bulldogs losses have been by 10 points, while their other 2 have been by 7 (Ole Miss) and 2 (Baylor) points. the Bulldogs also have some good wins on the year, which includes a home win over Alabama and a road win over a very hot Vanderbilt team. This is a legit top 20 team. Florida comes in on a 4 game win streak, but 3 of those games were vs Georgia, S. Carolina and LSU, while they needed a huge comeback in their last game vs Ole Miss, so it's really not all that an impressive win streak. I just feel that a ranked Bulldog team that has taken 4 of the last 5 in this series should be able to cover this inflated line. This one will come down to the wire. KEY TRENDS--- MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, while FLORIDA is 1-10 ATS in a home game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
Fairway Jay
Fresno State at New Mexico State
Play: New Mexico State -9.5
This is the wrong place at the wrong time for Fresno State, whose road struggles are well documented with 11 losses away from home this season. At 1-5 in WAC play, the Bulldogs are struggling and the schedule and situation is bad Saturday as they travel to take on one of the WAC’s top teams, New Mexico State. Fresno State is playing its third straight road game and coming off a tough travel spot with a quick turnaround following a draining, emotional 59-58 loss at Louisiana Tech on Thursday. Much energy and effort was needed for them to rally late, only to fall short on a last second basket by Tech. Now they take on an angry New Mexico State team off its own disappointing home loss Thursday vs. league leader Nevada. But the Aggies have some big edges in this contest in the match-ups and stat profiles to go along with the poor situation against Fresno State. NMSU plays at a very fast pace, one of the top-10 adjusted tempo ratings in the country while Fresno State is a slow, methodical team with poor shooters and rank 289th in the nation in effective field goal defense. New Mexico State leads the WAC in rebounding margin at nearly +8 per game while Fresno State is dead last in the league at -5. The Aggies take few three-point shots, so we don’t have to be concerned with long-range shots or inconsistency from the perimeter against a weak opponent. Rather, the Aggies use their strength on the interior. The Aggies defense is far better allowing 42% shooting while Fresno State allows 48% in WAC play. New Mexico State leads the league in scoring, averaging over 78 ppg while Fresno State is last in the league at 63 ppg. Fresno State’s top forward averages 8 ppg and 5 rpg, and they do not have an answer for Aggies senior forward Wendall McKines inside, as he’s No. 2 in the league in scoring (19 ppg) and No. 3 in rebounding (10 rpg). Combined with 6-11 senior center Hamidu Rahman, the Aggies pose all sorts of match-up problems for the Bulldogs down low. Along with senior point guard Hernst Laroche, off a season high 21-points vs. Nevada, the Aggies have a solid inside/outside combo to break down the Bulldogs and pull away for a solid win.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Georgia Southern +8 over UT CHATTANOOGA: (Added) Yes Ga. Southern has struggled on the road this year at 1-11 and they have been outscored by 10.7 ppg in those games, but I feel vs a bad UT Chatt teams they will be able to keep this one close. Despite their road woes, Georgia Southern has compiled a 6-4 record in the SoCon, while UT Chatt has gone just 3-6 and they may come in a bit flat after BB 1 points losses, which included a loss to the the Conference's best team, Davidson, in their last game. Overall Chattanooga has lost four in a row as prior to the Loss to Davison and Elon, they also had tough losses vs NC Greensboro and a bad Samford team. UTC does have a scoring margin of +4.7 overall, but in the SoCon they are -1.2, while Georgia Southern is at -1.7. I just feel that 8 points is too much for a team that is on a 4 game slide and off BB 1 point losses playing a team with a winning conference record. I would not at all be surprised to see Georgia Southern take this one outright, but for now i will call for this game to be decided in the last minute or two of the game. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play On road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points if they are playing with one or less days rest and a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) vs a team with a losing record. This play is 50-19 the last 5 seasons.
Auburn/ Tennessee Over 120: (Added) Got a feeling that it's time for both of these teams to break out a bit offensively. Auburn has not done very well at the offensive end this year as they have averaged 64.4 ppg overall and 54.3 ppg on the road, but they have a chance at hitting at least 60 points in this game vs a Tennessee team that has allowed 67.2 ppg overall and 62.5 ppg at home. at the other end of the floor for the Vols they have averaged just 56 ppg in their last 5 games, but 3 of those 5 were on the road and they did hit 60+ in both home games over that stretch. For the Year the Volvs have done well at the offensive end, scoring 69 ppg on 44.4% shooting overall, including 72 ppg on 47.4% shooting at home. Auburn's defense has been solid overall this year, allowing just 63.9 ppg on 40.5% shooting overall, but they have struggled on the road where they have allowed 69 ppg on 44.6 % shooting. While both teams have struggled offensively of late I still see both teams cracking the 60 point mark in this one and even if Auburn hits just 55 points, the Vols are more than capable of hitting at least 66 of their own. KEY TREND--- AUBURN is 33-11 OVER in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games.
4 UNIT PLAY
Utah +12 over USC: (Added) The Utes have not had a good inaugural season in the Pac-12 as they have gone 2-6 and have been outscored by 14.1 ppg in those games, but this is also a team that has surprised this year and this looks to be another spot in which they will do so. While being obliterated by UCLA, California and Colorado, the Utes have also had a 3 point loss at Stanford a 4 point home loss to Washington and an OT home win over Washington State. Now hey get to take on a USC squad that is much worse than the teams listed above, making this more of an even game. USC has gone 0-8 in the conference and have just lost their 7 foot center Dedmon to a season ending injury. Both teams have had problems on offense this year as USC has averaged 54.4 ppg, while Utah has put up just 56 ppg, so no real advantage for either team there. The Trojans do get the edge on defense as they have allowed just 58.8 ppg, while Utah has allowed 71.9 ppg, but USC just doesn't have enough offense to take advantage. The Trojans also play a very slow pace which will make it hard to get enough touches for them to put enough points on the board for an easy. The very low OU line (105) suggests that alot of points won't be scored in this one and with that plus the pace this game will be played at I just don't see a blow out win here. USC by 7 or less.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Akron/ Central Michigan Over 135: (Added) AKRON is 13-3 OVER in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997, while C MICHIGAN is 6-0 OVER as a home underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons.
Denver -4 over ARK LITTLE ROCK: (Added) Much better team laying a small number here. i'll take it.
Teddy Covers
Detroit @ Philadelphia
PICK: Under 177.5
Both the Pistons and the 76ers have been trending strongly to the Under in situations like the one both squads find themselves in tonight. The numbers don’t lie. Detroit has played at a snail’s pace in hostile road environments all year. They’ve been road underdogs nine times. Eight of those games have stayed Under the posted total as Detroit has failed to eclipse the 85 point mark in seven of those contests. That includes the Pistons ugly 96-73 loss on this floor just three weeks ago.
The Sixers have been home favorites on eleven occasions already this season. If you’ve been betting Philly Under the total in those games, you’ve cashed ten winning bets in those eleven tries. It’s surely worth noting how far the betting markets have been off, in terms of 76ers totals. Twice during that span, the Sixers played an overtime game that STILL stayed Under the total, including Wednesday’s OT home loss to New Jersey.
Both teams are playing on the second night of back-2-backs and their third game in four nights, leaving them a notch or two sluggish here. Neither coach has any interest in pushing the pace, and both teams have made a concerted effort to avoid allowing easy fast break buckets in transition. Expect a low scoring brick-fest that stays Under the total. Take the Under.
OC Dooley
St. Joseph’s +6.5
One of the keys to handicapping basketball is figuring out which side has the edge in critical matchups. While Temple has played “small” for most of the season, St. Joseph’s has 3 impact big men who are ready to dominate the paint. One of those big men is C.J. Aiken who just happens to rank #2 nationally in average BLOCKED SHOTS (4.3) per contest. While the underdog Hawks have the ability to defend, they also have an impact shooter on offense as Langston Galloway is one of the top “three point” shooters in his conference, nailing more than 50% of his attempts from long range. Today marks the 153rd meeting in this rivalry which is the most games played by any of the Philadelphia-area schools. Despite the rivalry St. Joe’s has been dominated by Temple recently dropping the past 9 meetings. But it should be noted that the visiting Hawks have already surpassed last year’s win total by garnering 12 outright triumphs which goes to show how much they have improved. Very quietly St. Josephs has been productive for investors this season (12-5 ATS) and are also an excellent 8-2 ATS when facing quality opposition whose average winning margin is at least four-points per triumph. Late this afternoon marks the first time these two schools have met since the Temple student section held a “mock funeral”, which most of the St. Joseph’s roster is going to remember
Free NBA Play for 1/28: Temple -6 at home vs St. Josephs. St. Josephs enters this game 13-8 overall, but they're still just 2-6 on the road. Now they have to face a solid Owls team on the road, who have beaten them nine straight times and are 8-2 ATS in the last ten games in this series. Temple has been rolling offensively, nailing almost 50% of their shots over their last five games while averaging 79 pts/game. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and they've all come across solid teams. They're also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The St Joseph Hawks are just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Temple. Doesn't look like anything will be any diferrent today. Take the home chalk here, Temple Owls -6. Our Free Picks now 152-81-1, 8-1 L9. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to receive all of our free plays via email.