Scott Spreitzer
UCLA @ Arizona State
PICK: UCLA -2
The Bruins are coming off an 85-74 loss at Arizona when it made only 2-of-15 3-point shots and allowed Arizona to shoot 60.9 percent in the second half, and still the Bruins came within two points of covering the point spread. It broke a four-game winning streak for UCLA, including road wins at the Oregon schools. Reeves Nelson returned from an injury to score 24 points against Arizona, but UCLA will need better production from guards Malcolm Lee and Lazeric Jones who were a combined 6-for-19 from the field. Nelson leads the team in scoring average (14.8), rebounds (8.1) and field goal percentage (58.5 percent). Tyler Honeycutt, who also had an off night on Thursday shooting 1-for-8 from the field, averages 13.4 points for the season. Arizona State is 3-12-1 ATS its last 16 home games and 5-12-1 ATS overall this season. The Sun Devils have lost four games in a row, including a 63-61 home loss on Thursday against USC. ASU appears to have overachieved last year when it finished second in the conference as this year it is 1-7 in conference play even though the Sun Devils returned three starters. Guards Ty Abbott (14.2 ppg) and Trent Lockett (13.7 ppg) are the leading scorers followed by forward Eihards Kuksiks, who averages 10.2 points. The Sun Devils shoot only 40.9 percent from the field at Wells Fargo Arena. Look for coach Ben Howland to make the proper defensive adjustments after Thursday's loss and also for the Bruins to shoot better as they cover the small number on Saturday. I'm laying the points with UCLA.
Chip Chirimbes
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech +2
The Big-12 has been good to us this season and we are going to the well once again in Waco were Texas Tech (10-11, #4-12) will host Oklahoma State (14-6, #9-5-1). Both teams have negative trends entering this contest as the Red Raiders are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games and the Cowboys are 5-11-1 in their last 17 road games. Still Tech is coming off back-to-back wins over Nebraska and Iowa State and get the money here. Take the RED RAIDERS!
Matt Rivers
BYU -3 at New Mexico.
Laying points at The Pit is a rare scenario as the Lobos at home are perennially a great team that has that Cameron Indoor type advantage when on their floor. But right now Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars are a legit Top 10 team at worst and I do not at all expect a letdown from this team after the quality victory over San Diego State.
BYU has been phenomenal all season long. They are 20-1 overall and have beaten some decent enough schools as the Cougs backcourt continues to wreak a ton of havoc on all comers. I'm not saying that the Lobos won't compete and stand toe-to-toe for awhile but in the end it's just not going to happen as Dave Rose' boys are just too freakin' good right now. Fredette very well may be thee single best player in the nation and Noah Hartsock, Jackson Emery and freshman Kyle Collingsworth are no joke as well. BYU is a well-coached and experienced team that will not just wet the bed being on the road. We saw that at UNLV and Utah as those games were really not even close.
New Mexico is 14-7 overall and 2-4 in the Mountain West. So far they just do not seem to be the team they have been over the last few seasons and have now lost three of the last four games. The Lobos are still pretty good and somewhat dangerous at home but it's just asking a ton in this spot against a clear cut better team led by a player who is on a mission and just cannot be stopped.
Fredette may not score in the 40's again but the guy will be great as always in leading the Cougs to a 7-10 point victory in the end.
MTi Sports
Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
The Mavericks are 0-13 ATS (-9.5 ppg) as a favorite when facing an Eastern Conference team they beat in their first match-up of the season, 0-5 ATS (-9.7 ppg) when they allowed at least ten points more than their season-to-date average for two straight games and 0-9-1 ATS (-7.3 ppg) at home after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. Atlanta is 7-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) as a dog after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. Take the Hawks.
Tom Freese
New Orleans Hornets at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets
Sacramento is 11-33 straight up this year. The Kings are 15-35-2 ATS their last 52 home games. The Kings are 8-20-1 ATS their last 29 games when their opponent scores 100 points. Sacramento is 3-12-1 ATS on Saturday and they are 2-10 ATS their last 12 home games. New Orleans is 31-16 straight up this year. The Hornets are 61-29-3 ATS on Saturday. New Orleans is 11-4 ATS their last 15 games over all. The Hornets are 6-0 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Hornets are 8-0 ATS their last 8 road games. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS their last 7 Conference games.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Charlotte Bobcats at LA Clippers
Love the Clips here as the return home off BB losses to host a Bobcats team that played last night in Golden State and won (outright) in overtime. The line is already moving, so you better get down quick! Lay the points.
Play on: LA Clippers
Tom Stryker
Colorado State @ Utah
PICK: Colorado State
After dropping seven straight, Utah has bounced back big-time in its last three games posting straight up underdog wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and TCU. Respect is given to that mini-run by the Utes. Unfortunately, it won't be enough to pull me off this visiting Colorado State bunch.
Technically speaking, this is the perfect spot to fade the University of Utah. Since the 1990-91 season, college basketball teams that enter off three consecutive straight up underdog victories are a dismal 83-132 ATS in their next game. Provided our "play against" side won their last battle by double-digits, this system crashes to a stunning 19-38 ATS! Finally, with those two parameters live and our go against squad facing an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .500, this technical gem slips to a stunning 10-30 ATS! The Utes apply to all three parts of this powerful situation.
Colorado State enters this contest off a hard-fought 69-66 home win over Air Force on Wednesday night and this game looms large for the Rams. On deck for CSU is a home game against San Diego State and the last thing State wants to do is go into that war off a straight up loss and in need of a victory.
Last year, CSU handled Utah with ease winning both games by finals of 65-50 and 76-67. The Rams are a force from the floor connecting on 49.7 percent of their shots and are currently ranked fourth in the country and first in the MWC in shooting percentage. It's never easy winning inside the Huntsman Center. However, State is catching the Utes emotionally spent right now off three consecutive straight up underdog wins and this is the perfect time to visit. Watch CSU's hot shooting forwards Travis Fanklin and Andy Ogide key this victory. Take Colorado State.
LARRY NESS
Colorado @ Baylor
PICK: Baylor -7.5
It's been a somewhat disappointing season for 13-6 Baylor, considering the Bears won 28 games and were one win away from a Final 4 appearance last year. Gone are the 6-10 Udoh (13.9-9.7) and the 7-0 Lomers (6.6-3.7), as well as PG Carter (15.0-5.9 APG). However, coach Drew still has plenty of talent. The 6-7 Acy (13.1-7.7) and the 6-10 Anthony Jones (8.7-5.5) have been joined up front by 6-11 freshman Perry Jones (13.8-7.1), who most believe will now be a first round draft pick next season. Senior Dunn (20.8-4.3) is having an expected big season plus sophomore PG Walton (8.9-3.6-5.3) has done a respectable job replacing Carter. However, the Bears have had a few notable 'flat spots.' Baylor could really use a strong run down the stretch to rekindle its at-large resume for the committee. Colorado (14-7) has been a nice surprise this season but the Buffs come into this game on a three-game losing streak. They surely have the backcourt depth to match Baylor, with big guards Burks (19.8-5.7) and Higgins (16.2-3.5) being joined by Knutson (11.5). The problem could very well lie up front, where the 6-7 Relphorde (11.7-4.1) and the 6-9 Dufault (8.2-4.6) may be overmatched. After road losses at Nebraska and Oklahoma, the Buffs lost a hard-fought home game to Kansas (82-78) and I'm not convinced this team is up to the challenge of winning or even keeping things close in Waco, where the Bears are 11-1 (lone loss to Kansas). Expect Dunn to rebound from his season-worst 4-of-17 shooting performance at Kansas St on Monday, as the Bears avenge a 78-71 loss last year in Boulder.
Tony George
Mizzou +7
Does the gravy train stop for Texas after waxing everyone in the Big 12 to date, including pounding Kansas last Saturday as a dog? Well, if anyione can play some defense and matcup against them I think the Tigers can. One of my gut feel games at night where against a good team it will not come easy in Austin tonight for Texas in my opinion. Mizzou can control tempo here and score in the paint, I like them to give Texas all they want tonight and cover the 7 points in a tight one. Mizzou 10-4 ATS last 14 Saturdays, and 7-2 ATS their last 9 games.
Stephen Nover
Xavier at RICHMOND (-4)
Xavier is a perennial Atlantic-10 power having won at least a share of the last four conference titles, but Richmond can't be overlooked this season.
The Spiders are off to their best A-10 start since joining the league in 2001-02.
Richmond returns 11 players from a 26-9 team that made it to the Big Dance last season. The Spiders have the height, home-court advantage and perimeter shooters to beat Xavier.
Xavier has six players who are 6-foot-8 or taller. The Spiders have some quality height, too, in 6-10 senior Justin Harper and 6-9 junior Darrius Garrett, one of the better shot-blockers in the Atlantic-10.
The Spiders aren't as physical as the Musketeers, but they are better shooters from the outside ranking 16th nationally and first in conference in field-goal percentage at 48.3. Richmond also leads the conference in 3-point shooting at 41.9 percent, which rates eighth nationally.
Richmond also has a top point guard in senior Kevin Anderson, the reigning league player of the year. Anderson is playing well again averaging 17 points.
The Spiders are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 league matchups. They've also covered in four of the last five meetings versus Xavier.
The Musketeers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games.
1♦ RICHMOND
Derek Mancini
Butler at VALPARAISO (+2')
Yes, I know the Crusaders are coming off a 63-61 home loss as an eight-point chalk to Wisconsin-Green Bay. But they had won 9 of their previous 10 games (7-2 ATS). The only straight-up loss in that span? At Butler back on New Year's Day. Don't for a minute think Valpo didn't get caught looking ahead to today's rematch, and that's understandable considering the visiting Bulldogs' reputation.
Reputation. That's the key word because that's the ONLY reason Butler is favored, laying 2 1/2 points as I write this, in today's rematch. The Bulldogs have lost two of their last three games, getting upset at home 86-80 in overtime by Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Sunday as a 14-point chalk, and falling 69-68 in their last road game on January 16 to Wright State 69-64 as a four-point favorite.
Butler backers have not been rewarded of late in Vegas as the Bulldogs have dropped three in a row to the oddsmakers, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They're also 1-2 SU in Horizon League play on the road, losing at Wright State, as noted above, and earlier in the month at Wisconsin-Milwaukee by a 76-52 count. That's right, they got drilled by 24 point in a contest they were laying 10.
Valpo is a tough defensive team. They're ranked 30th in the nation in field goal defense at 47.8 percent. They're holding their foes to just 30.1 percent from three-point range. And they're one of the top teams in the country at moving the ball as evident by their 15.7 assists per game.
Butler has won seven straight in the series, but this is NOT the 2010 version of the Bulldogs that gave Duke a run for its money in last April's title game. That's why you've got to take advantage of the points you're getting and back Valpo at home in front of another sellout crowd to pull the big upset in big revenge.
3♦ VALPARAISO
Joel Tyson
George Mason (-10') at WILLIAM & MARY
As for your college comp play release go right ahead and lay the road wood with the surging Patriots of George Mason as they visit nearby William and Mary.
George Mason has ripped off 6 straight wins, and 7 straight covers as they enter play this Saturday. The Pats have been able to cover some big numbers along the way, covering 4 straight when favored by 7 points or more.
William and Mary has won straight up just twice in their last dozen games, and they have now failed 8 of their last 11 lined home contests.
George Mason is looking for a little payback as well, as the Tribe scalped the Patriots last February snapping a 4 game George Mason series win streak.
With Mason surging, cannot buck them today.
Lay the road wood!
3♦ GEORGE MASON
Karl Garrett
Florida (-5') at MISS STATE
Billy Donovan has it going with his Gators right now, and after scrappy-gritty road wins at Auburn and Georgia their last 2 times out, the G-Man will look for Florida to take full advantage of a "down" Miss State team.
The Bulldogs let ranked Vanderbilt off the hook on Thursday night at home, and that dropped Rick Stansbury's Bulldogs to a money-burning 2-9-1 against the line their last 12 games at The Hump.
Florida is up to 16-4 this season and looking to improve their postseason stock with another conference road win. I feel sure Coach Donovan's team remembers the last time these teams met as Mississippi State knocked Florida out of the SEC Tournament.
G-Man is sure the Gators will have no qualms with handing the Bulldogs another home loss.
Go with the invading Gators in this one.
4♦ FLORIDA
Joel Tyson
Colorado at BAYLOR (-8)
Colorado fought hard last time out at home, but they took their first straight up home loss of the year at the hands of the Kansas Jayhawks. Now the Buffaloes must hit the Big 12 road, and the conference trail has not been a kind one to the Buffs.
Colorado has lost their last pair both straight up and against the spread on the Big 12 road, and today they are playing against a Baylor team that is looking to atone for a loss at Kansas State their last time out.
The Bears have been money at home this season, winning 11 of their 12 home dates thus far. They followed up their only home court loss - to Kansas - with a ringing win last Saturday over Oklahoma State, and I expect them to follow up their road loss to K-State with another ringing home win over a Colorado team that is just 2-6 against the spread away from home this year.
Baylor has won and covered the last 3 home games in this series, and they are on a 9-4 spread run the last 13 times these schools have laced them up.
Go ahead and lay the points as the Buffaloes struggle away from Boulder once again on the conference road.
2♦ BAYLOR
Chuck O'Brien
Indiana State (+5) at CREIGHTON
Strong value on the visiting Sycamores here as this line is depressed for three reasons: 1) Creighton has cashed in four straight, six of its last seven and nine of its last 11; 2) Indiana State is coming off consecutive losses to Wichita State and Evansville (which follows a six-game winning streak); and 3) the Sycamores barely beat Creighton at home two weeks ago (61-59 win as a four-point favorite).
Well, first off, Indiana State was a 12-point underdog at Wichita State, so no shame in that overtime loss. Secondly, Creighton has been an underdog in seven of its last 10 games, so that 9-2 ATS run is a bit skewed. Thirdly, with respect to the narrow two-point win over Creighton, Indiana State shot just 37% from the field and still found away to escape with a win.
The Sycamores are still 7-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference (inexplicably, they’ve lost twice to Evansville), and they sit two games ahead of Creighton, whose loss at Indiana State on Jan. 16 is part of a 1-4 SU slump. And while the Bluejays are on a 9-2 ATS roll, much of that damage has come on the road, where they’re 8-1 ATS on the season. At home, Creighton has cashed just three times in 11 lined contests.
Indiana State is on spread-covering hot streaks of 12-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 27-10 against MVC foes and 8-3 on Saturdays. And even though they’re coming off consecutive losses – including Wednesday’s three-point loss to Evansville as a seven-point favorite – note that the Sycamores haven’t lost three in a row or had consecutive non-covers since starting the season 1-3 SU and ATS.
The oddsmakers blew this one, as Indiana State should be the team that’s favored, and the Sycamores win this one 68-62.
3♦ INDIANA STATE
Stephen Nover
Wisconsin (-4) at PENN STATE
Penn State is one of the feel-good stories of the Big Ten Conference. But word is out on the Nittany Lions. No more sneaking up on teams.
Wisconsin's Bo Ryan is one of the top coaches in the country. The Badgers played Penn State with a great deal of confidence having won 12 straight times with a victory margin of 19.7 points per game.
The Badgers are 10-2 ATS during this span, including 6-0 ATS at Penn State.
Following an overtime loss to Michigan State, the Badgers have won three in a row. They are off their best shooting game of the season and playing with a great deal of confidence.
Wisconsin ranks third in the nation in scoring defense allowing just 56 points per game. The Badgers have limited Penn State to only 52.1 points per game during the past 12 meetings.
Penn State did have a breather in its last game, a 65-51 home victory against Iowa. Previous to that, however, the Nittany Lions had played at Purdue, at Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue. Those kind of physical games against the elite of the conference takes a toll.
2♦ WISCONSIN
Bobby Maxwell
BYU (-4) at NEW MEXICO
For my comp winner, there will be no letdown today for BYU as the Cougars head into the Pit for a Mountain West showdown against New Mexico. They upset previously unbeaten San Diego State on Wednesday but know they have to bring their best not to be upset themselves tonight. I’ll lay the points with BYU in this one.
Star guard Jimmer Fredette poured in 43 points against the Aztecs and he’s had three 40-plus point games in his last four contests and he’s averaging 27.4 points per game. BYU is 20-1 on the season and now are in the same place they were a year ago looking for win No. 21 when they were upset 76-72 by the Lobos.
New Mexico has lost three of its last four games and they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games. The Lobos lost their only other game against a ranked team, falling at home to San Diego State on Jan. 16, 87-77.
BYU is on ATS runs of 20-9-1 as a road favorite and 7-2 as a chalk of up to 6 ½ points. New Mexico is on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 0-5 at home against teams with winning road records, 2-6-1 on Saturdays and 2-7 in Mountain West games.
I’ll stick with the red-hot team in this one and lay the points with BYU at New Mexico. Play the Cougars.
5♦ BYU
Chuck O'Brien
Colorado St. at UTAH (PK)
For your second of two complimentary college basketball selections on Saturday, take Utah as a home favorite against Colorado State.
The records of these teams – Utah is 10-10 (8-10-1 ATS); Colorado State is 14-6 (11-6-1 ATS) – certainly suggest that the visiting Rams are the better value play. But in this instance I prefer to look at recent form, and Utah has no doubt come on strong the last two weeks, following up an ugly seven-game losing streak with three straight upset wins – and convincing upsets at that.
Two of those victories came on the road (68-51 at Wyoming; 75-62 at TCU), and sandwiched in between was an 82-72 home rout of New Mexico as a five point underdog.
Colorado State struggled to a 69-66 home win over Air Force on Wednesday, falling short as a 10-point home favorite, and that followed last Saturday’s 95-85 home loss to BYU as a seven-point underdog. The Rams are just 4-3 SU and ATS in their last seven, and only one of those wins (at UNLV) came away from Fort Collins.
Colorado State swept the Utes in two meetings last year (and did so convincingly with wins of 15 and 9 points), but prior to that, Utah had won five in a row in this rivalry (4-1 ATS).
The Utes have had a full week to rest up and prepare for this one (their last game was a week ago today), and they’ve come away with the cash in each of their last three Saturday contests, including last week’s 13-point road win at TCU. Make it four straight Saturday spread-covers – and four consecutive wins and covers overall – as Utah takes this one by seven.
3♦ UTAH
Craig Davis
Arkansas State at ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK (-4')
Today's free play is on Arkansas Little Rock over Arkansas State.
Some teams are really good at home, some are decent at home. Some are bad on the road... others are REALLY bad on the road.
Arkansas State is REALLY bad on the road, and they have very little chance to win this game. If this game were played a month ago, I'd say Arkansas State might have a shot, but the way they've been playing recently gives me absolutely no faith in them.
Arkansas State and Little-Rock have played a very similar conference schedule, and if you simply go by comparisons in those games... it's not even close. Little Rock should win this game by double digits.
But for me, it's more how the Wolves have been playing recently that leads me to believe they won't come close this evening.
They have lost seven straight road games by an average of over 10 points per game, with the lone win coming against lowly SE Missouri State back in December.
If you'll remember, I released the Denver Pioneers as a 40-dime winner a few weeks ago over Arkansas State, and the game was never close. Denver won by nearly 30 as the Red Wolves scored less than 40 points in 40 minutes. How embarrassing!!
Little Rock, on the other hand, has been playing much better at home recently, having won three straight and six of their last eight, with one of those losses being to SEC supposed power Mississippi.
The home team has win six of the last seven and after tonight you can make it seven of eight.
3♦ ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK
Derek Mancini
Atlanta (+5) at DALLAS
Bettors are hot and heavy against for Dallas, but buyer beware, this is a bad spot for the Mavericks. Why? the biggest reason is actually the suspension of Marvin Williams. My clients know I've been harping on the fact the Hawks are actually a more cohesive unit with Williams out of the lineup. Without him robbing shots from better players on this Atlanta team, the Hawks have a better shot of winning the game. They proved as much during his most recent injury, going 8-3 SU (6-5 ATS) in the 11 games he missed due to a back injury, and the improvement in chemistry was self-evident.
Second, I'm really not that impressed by the Mavericks recent win streak. So what if they beat the Nets, Clippers, and Rockets? They went just 1-2 ATS, and all 3 of those teams are bottom-feeders. Yes, they had a good game against the Lakers, but are you going to base your entire decision on one good game? I've been much more impressed with the Hawks recent play, despite a couple ugly losses. They're getting great production from Johnson, Horford, and Smith - and that's the key to their covering this game.
Finally, its important to note that the Mavs have not been playing the kind of basketball we saw early on, going 2-9 ATS over their L11 overall. And don't tell me its because they lacked Nowitzki, because he's been back for their last 7 games and their just 2-5 ATS over that span. Also, you may think the fatigue factor comes into play and you're right, except its actually a positive trend for this Atlanta team, going 9-5 ATS without rest. Look for another stong effort from this Atlanta team tonight. Take Atlanta plus the points tonight in Dallas.
2♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
New Orleans (-6) at SACRAMENTO
The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, including a 112-103 win at Golden State on Wednesday as 1 ½-point favorites. This New Orleans roster is damn good, and the starting five is about as good as any in the league. On Wednesday, Chris Paul had 18 points and 17 assists with mates David West and Trevor Ariza adding 22 and 19 points respectively.
Sacramento went to Los Angeles on Friday and upset the Lakers 100-95. But I’m not sure how much of that was the Kings’ skill or the Lakers looking toward Sunday’s showdown with the Celtics. Sacramento lost its last two home games, falling to Portland and then losing to Charlotte on Tuesday 94-89 as 1 ½-point favorites.
New Orleans is on ATS surges of 8-0 on the road, 11-4 overall, 4-0 after getting two days off and 61-29-3 on Saturdays. Sacramento is on ATS slides of 2-10 at home against teams with winning road records, 9-25-1 as a home underdog, 15-35-2 at home and 3-12-1 on Saturdays.
The Hornets have won three straight against the Kings and seven of eight in this series. Lay the points with New Orleans tonight.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Matt Fargo
Missouri vs. Texas
Play: Missouri +7
Texas does not seem to want to fold like it did at this point last season. Following a huge road win at Kansas, snapping the Jayhawks 69-game home winning streak, the Longhorns avoided a letdown by using a late first half run and eventually pulled away from Oklahoma St. for their fifth straight double-digit conference win. Two of Texas’ three losses came against Connecticut and Pittsburgh by a combined three points so it is playing exceptional. That means value going the other way. Following a tough overtime loss at Texas A&M, Missouri has won its last two games heading into a big showdown in Austin. The Tigers are 3-2 in the Big XII but all three of those wins have come against teams with losing conference records so this game against Texas is even more important. Missouri fought the Aggies hard in an unfortunate overtime loss while the other Big XII loss came at Colorado, which has surprised numerous teams this season. There will be no surprise here. Missouri is once again one of the nation's highest scoring teams as it is ranked sixth in the nation, averaging 85.0 ppg. The Tigers are also sixth in the country in assists at 18.0 per game, so not only do they score in bunches, but they do it with great efficiency, recording assists on 60 percent of their baskets. The Tigers have had eight different players lead the team, or tie for the team lead, in scoring which shows great balance and depth and that is what it takes to tackle a team like Texas. Missouri falls into a great situation here as well. Play against favorites that are coming off a road win by 10 points or more in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or greater. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Missouri is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing 60 points or fewer in its last game while Texas is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games after a conference win. The Tigers have played Texas only three times in three years but have won and covered all three meetings. 3* Missouri Tigers
BEN BURNS
Atlanta @ Dallas
PICK: Under 189
I won with the "over" in the Mavericks last game. Facing Houston, the Mavs exploded for 111 points, en route to a 111-106 victory. While that one finished comfortably above the total, I expect a much lower-scoring affair here.
I won with Atlanta last night. The Hawks shot 51.2% from the floor and won by a score of 111-102. That was at home though and it was against the Knicks, a teach which was off an "emotional" victory (over Miami) the previous night.
Looking at Atlanta's recent road games and we find that they've been much lower-scoring. The Hawks have played three road games over the past two weeks and all three finished with 190 or fewer points.
These teams faced each other at Atlanta back in November. That game had an O/U line of 192 and finished with 191 combined points. That's not really that noteworthy, as the final score was so close to the number. However, the fact that Dallas won that game is significant. That's because the Hawks have seen the "under" 11-6 the last 17 times that they were playing with "revenge." Looking back further finds the "under" at 58-42 (minus "pushes") the last 100 times that they were in that situation.
Its also worth noting that the Hawks have seen the "under" go a profitable 10-4 the last 14 times that they played the second of back to back games.
The last time that the Hawks traveled to Dallas, the teams combined for only 155 points. Including that result, the "under" is 5-1 the last six times that the Mavs were a host in this series, including 3-0 the past three seasons. Consider the Under
WUNDERDOG
Northern Illinois at Buffalo
Pick: Under 148
The Bulls have run-off straight wins as the team has begun to mature and the defense is beginning to step-up. The Bulls in their last three games have allowed just 63.3 points per game. They will face a Northern Illinois team today that is 7-11 on the season with just a pair of road wins. While the Huskies hung an 80 spot on the road vs. Western Michigan, that is far from their norm, as their previous five road games resulted in just 61.6 ppg. The Huskies have also played UNDER in six of their last seven following a win. While this one might have the look of a high-scoring game, I think Northern Illinois gets shut down here. With a high total, Buffalo won't get enough by themselves to push this one over. The UNDER is my call in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS TECH +120 over Oklahoma St.
The Cowboys need to establish some credibility on the road against quality clubs before they can be endorsed as road chalk. OSU played a weak non-conference schedule and they’re paying the price for that now. They opened the year 13-2 and their two losses were against the only two quality opponents in the Zags and Hokies. The Cowboys opened conference play with a solid win over KSU but then reality set in when the Cowboys dropped four of their next five conference games leading up to this one. They not only lost but were crushed by 23, 19 and 15 points respectively to quality foes, A&M, Baylor and Texas. The Cowboys only win over that stretch was a lucky OT victory over Iowa St. Now they’ll hit the road again where they have now won since beating Tulsa on Dec 8. Tech is not an easy team to beat by any stretch. Statistically speaking they do everything better than the Cowboys except rebound. The Red Raiders have now won two in a row over Nebraska and Iowa St, the latter on the road by nine. These two have the same 2-4 conference mark and in a game in which the Raiders should be -2 or -2½, the home team offers up some pretty sweet value. Play: #580 Texas Tech (Risking 2 units).
Texas A&M +111 over NEBRASKA
Wow, the Aggies get crushed in one road game in Texas and now they’re getting points in Nebraska? This is a situation that can be taken advantage of simply because the Aggies are for real and should absolutely whack the Huskers. The Aggies previous road game before the Horns blowout was in Oklahoma and they ruined the Sooners by 18. That road loss in Texas only makes them a better bet here because sometimes a loss is a good thing and that poor start and bad game will have them very ready here. The Aggies are a terrific defensive and rebounding club, they have balanced scoring and they have notable wins over Temple, Washington, Mizzou and K-State, The Huskers have notable wins over nobody and have now lost three of their last four games. Nebraska is favored here because they’re 13-0 at home and that’s nice but again, the quality of opposition is nothing close to the Aggies and once again the Cornhuskers will likely pay the price for scheduling games against the Grambling Tigers, Eastern Washington Eagles and Jackson State Tigers of the world. Play: #551 Texas A&M +111 (Risking 2 units).