Jack Jones
Kansas State +11
I'll take Kansas State Saturday over Kansas in a huge rivalry game in Big 12 play. After such a brutal start to the season with one of the toughest schedules in the land, the Wildcats are finally starting to show solid value and it's going to pay off at the pay window. Kansas State has the talent to go on the road and beat a team like Kansas, they just haven't put it all together for 40 minutes yet this season. I feel they will do just that tonight and stay within double-digits of a Kansas team that has proven to be very vulnerable.
The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Those six contests include an overtime victory over Michigan, a 5-point win at Iowa State, a 3-point home win over Nebraska, an 11-point home loss to Texas and a 4-point road win at Colorado. Like I said before, Kansas is vulnerable and are very fortunate to only have on loss this season. Kansas State is 11-1 ATS after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls over the last 2 seasons. Kansas is 2-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game this season. Bet the Wildcats Saturday.
Cajun Sports
Cal St-Fullerton vs. Long Beach State
Play: Cal St-Fullerton +11½
Long Beach State will be seeking a measure of revenge against Fullerton on Saturday night as they recently suffered a two-point loss at the hands of the Titans. In that contest CS took full advantage of LBS’s defensive weaknesses with all Fullerton starters scoring in double-digits in the win. As the season has progressed, CS has developed a balanced offensive attack one in which the 49ers should have trouble matching up against once again in this contest. The Titans have won six of the last seven meetings between these two squads and the fact that they continue to get solid play from all of their starters makes this an easy call especially catching double-digits from the lines-makers in this particular situation. A check of the database supports our recommendation on the Titans with a league-wide system that tells us to Play AGAINST CBB home favorites of 10 or more points after going over the total by 30 or more points in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55 percent on the season. This system has posted a record of 16-4 ATS the last three seasons. CS is 12-2 ATS off a close road loss by 3 points or less since 1997. CS is 22-8 ATS in road games after a loss by 6 points or less since 1997. CS is 9-0 ATS in road games after having won two of their last three games over the last 2 seasons. LBS is 0-11 ATS in home games after three straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 47 percent or higher since 1997. Take the generous points here, as revenge will not be enough to help the 49ers defeat the Titans on Saturday night.
Info Plays
3* Wizards/Grizzlies OVER 197
Reasons why Wizards/Grizzlies will go OVER:
1) Play OVER - road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (Washington) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games, as its 25-6 since 1996.
2) Washington is 8-1 OVER when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.
3) Memphis is 51-30 OVER versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
OC Dooley
Montana State +2.5
These two rivals just met last Saturday when Montana (7-1 league play) won easily on their home floor by a 75-61 count, so this evening is a rematch. One would think the visiting Grizzlies should be laying more points since they are on a current 10-1 overall tear where the “spread” record (6-3) has also been solid. But the fact of the matter is that host Montana State is UNDEFEATED so far this season in front of their own HOME fans (8-0 SU/5-0 ATS) where the offense has lit up the scoreboard to the tune of 80 points per game. Odds are that Montana State will have a much better offensive showing that earlier this week when they lost on the road putting just 45 points on the scoreboard. The location of this particular contest is critical as Montana State is on a spectacular 8-0 ATS roll at HOME when up against a solid defensive opponent who is permitting on average less than 43% field goal percentage. In the past three years Montana State has shown tremendous resiliency going 9-1 ATS after “failing” to cover the spread in consecutive outings