DAVE COKIN
UAB AT MARSHALL
PLAY: UAB +2
If you’re making out a list of surprise teams to date this season, Marshall probably should be included in that rundown. The Thundering Herd limped out of the starting blocks with six straight losses against pretty good competition. But since that rough beginning, Marshall has done well, and they now find themselves in a tie for the top spot in CUSA.
Today’s opponent for the Herd is the other first-place team, and UAB being in contention for the league’s top spot is no surprise. The Blazers were considered the consensus team to beat prior to the season, and they haven’t disappointed.
I guess one can make a case that UAB’s 17-4 record is not quite as gaudy as it appears. It’s not like this team faced much of a challenge in the non-conference portion of the campaign. But the fact remains the Blazers have been taking care of business all season, and I expect that to be the case again today.
As for the numbers, the head to head categorical comparisons favor UAB. In fairness, those edges are helped by the easier non-league slate faced by UAB as opposed to the caliber of competition Marshall challenged. Nevertheless, while Marshall probably has the better overall offense, the defensive advantage for the Blazers seems fairly clear.
I also see the big game atmosphere being a part of the mix today. There’s no doubt Marshall will be excited about this game and they fans should be totally revved up for their most important home game in at least a few years. But the team that’s more used to the spotlight is unquestionably UAB. Several of the Blazers who contributed greatly in their stirring run through the CUSA Tournament plus the opening round NCAA upset of Iowa State are still on hand, and that confidence of knowing how to get it done when it matters could be vital.
I would think this is going to be a terrific game, and I’ll be surprised if there’s anything resembling a lopsided result here. But I do feel as though UAB is the more proven entity and I like the matchup from a statistical standpoint. That’s enough to get me on UAB side today.
Bruce Marshall
UC Irvine -6.5
UCSB is downgraded slightly from recent editions, lacking the powerful inside presence that graduated F Alan Williams provided the past few seasons. Bigger UCI already took advantage of that situation at the Thunderdome two weeks ago in 9-point win when 6-10 sr. F Mike Best scored 20. Anteater HC Russell Turner is this season also squeezing more quality minutes out of 7-6 giant C Mamadou Ndiaye, the ultimate "goalie" and now on floor more than 23 minutes pg., posting career-best rebound numbers (7.2 pg; 13 caroms in first meeting) and also mostly staying out of the foul trouble that limited his court time in the past. Seven wins in a row have put UCI on top of the Big West table!
Stephen Nover
Virginia +6.5
When two very good teams meet, especially two that rank among the top 11 defensively, taking points isn't a bad way to go. That's especially the case here getting this many points with 11th-ranked Virginia against 16th-rated Louisville. It's the first time the Cavaliers are an underdog in 44 games, The last time the Cavaliers were a 'dog was last season against VCU on the road and they beat the Rams, 74-57.
OK, that was last season when the Cavaliers had the most efficient defense in the country. Virginia's defense isn't as stifling this season. But it's still very strong ranking 11th in the nation surrendering fewer than 62 points a game while also ranking No. 1 in defensive rebounding. The Cavaliers make up for their slight defensive decline with a very efficient offense. Virginia rates in the top 20 in field goal percentage and top 10 in turnover percentage. The Cavaliers commit the fewest turnovers per game in the Atlantic Coast Conference at 9.3. Louisville turns the ball over more than 10 of the 15 teams in the ACC.
Virginia has stepped up when asked going 3-0 versus ranked opponents. The Cavaliers held 15th-ranked Miami to 58 points in an eight-point home victory five games ago. The Hurricanes average more than 79 points on the season.
Current form and contrast in styles are factors, too, why Virginia should cover if not win straight-up. Sparked by a hot Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia has won three in a row shooting 52.7 percent from the floor during this span. Brogdon is averaging 23 points during the win streak. By contrast, Louisville hasn't been sharp defensively beating Virginia Tech, 91-83, and Georgia Tech, 75-71, during its past two games. The Cardinals are shooting only 44.7 percent from the field during their last eight games. Their season shooting percentage is 49.1. Louisville has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games.
Virginia's offense is predicated on patience working to get the best shot. That helps make the Cavaliers very tough in this point spread range as they are built more for covering as a 'dog than as chalk. The teams split last season with Virginia beating the the Cavaliers, 52-47, at home while losing at Louisville, 59-57. The Cardinals were a 2 1/2-point home 'dog in that game. So you can see the line adjustment from a year ago, which I believe is overcompensated way too much. Only once in their four losses have the Cavaliers lost by more than five points. Their average losing margin is by 4.5 points.
The Cardinals run more and rely on offensive rebounding. One of their keys is 6-foot-10 center Chinau Onuaku, who has to deal with Virginia's talented and tall frontline. Onuaku has had problems avoiding foul trouble and also has been sick this week. Note, too, that the Cardinals have a huge home game on deck when they host No. 2 ranked North Carolina on Monday.
Going back the past four seasons, the Cardinals have covered only 25 percent of the time as a single-digit home favorite averaging 64 points during these games.
Mike Lundin
Pistons vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -7½
This looks like a very rough spot for the Detroit Pistons. They suffered a 114-106 loss at home against the Cavs last night and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight playing on back-to-back nights. They'll face a white hot Toronto Raptors team coming off 10 consecutive wins and All-Star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have been terrific during the winning streak averaging 24 and 22.3 points respectively. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and off a 103-93 victory over the Knicks here at Air Canada Centre Thursday. They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven playing on one days rest and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine at home after a win as a home favorite.
Marc Lawrence
New Mexico vs. Boise State
Play: New Mexico +6
Edges - Lobos: 8-2 SU and 7-1 ATS versus .646 or greater opposition this season. Broncos: 0-5 ATS as favorites before facing Utah State; and 2-4 ATS after facing UNLV. With the visiting team 11-4 ATS in Boise State games this season, we recommend a 1* play on double revenging New Mexico. T
Heath Mac
Youngstown State vs. Valparaiso
Play: Over 145
We successfully backed the Penguins as small road dogs 2 days ago in their win over Illinois-Chicago, but they look as if they’re up against it here. Valpo have looked impressive this season, with a defense that keeps opposition sides to 59.6 ppg (2nd in the nation) and an offense that scores enough to win games, but is capable of putting up big points against the weaker teams. The Penguins are almost polar opposites of the Crusaders. They have no worries putting up points at around 75 ppg, but cant defend to save their lives, allowing 81 ppg overall and 85.9 ppg on the road. The Penguins last 10 games are averaging over 160+ ppg in total.
These sides met 2 weeks ago for a 31 point Valpo win, but the key point out of that game was that Valpo was able to put up 96 points while the Penguins put up 65 points and a total of 161 points against a total of 147 points. We’re getting a lower total here, most likely based on the Crusader’s league leading home defense, but the Penguins put up just as many points on the road and Valpo average a few points more at home anyway.
The spread here is 23 points at most books, which tells us this will be a blow out and we expect that to be the case. While this means we wont see any free throws or much clock stopping at the end of the game, we will see a drop off in defensive intensity as the result will most likely be decided in the first half and so we should see some easy garbage time points. The books have this one lined at a score of around Valpo 85 - Penguins 60 and we tend to agree, but as the Penguins allow an average of 85.9 points on the road against all teams, a good side like Valpo should hit 90 points again and with the result a likely blowout, the drop off in defensive intensity should account for a further 5-10 points and we think this one goes OVER again.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Youngstown State's last 9 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Valparaiso's last 5 games.
Scott Spreitzer
Sacramento vs Memphis
Play: Memphis -2½
Sacramento appeared to have turned its season around with a five-game winning streak but then came the double overtime loss at home against Charlotte on Monday and the Kings have yet to recover. They lost the following night 112-97 at Portland and then again 114-105 at New Orleans on Thursday. This will be the fourth game in six days for the Kings and third straight road contest. DeMarcus Cousins and Ben McLemore had 26 points apiece against the Pelicans but the Kings couldn't contain Ryan Anderson who scored 36 points. Memphis has won six of its last seven games and blew out Milwaukee 103-83 on Thursday. Jeff Green came off the bench to score 21 points and the Grizzlies held the Bucks to 36.7 percent from the field. Sacramento hasn't won in Memphis in nearly seven years and lost 103-89 to the Grizzlies earlier this season. Also, the Kings have missed Rudy Gay (eye injury). Gay may play tonight, but we'll back Memphis whether he plays or not.
Kyle Hunter
Texas-Arlington vs. UL-Lafayette
Play: UL-Lafayette -5½
The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns might have the most talented team in the Sun Belt. This is a weak conference overall, but Lafayette did a really nice job scheduling some tough teams in the non-conference portion of their schedule, which has them more prepared for conference play than most teams. Louisiana Lafayette is dominating teams on the boards thanks to Shawn Long and company in the frontcourt.
UT Arlington played great early in the season, but they had been showing signs of wearing down lately. The Mavericks got some really bad news when their leading scorer and best player, Kevin Hervey, went down with an injury. Hervey is out for the season. UT Arlington has lost 2 of 3 games since he went down with an injury.
UT Arlington is now in the middle of a 5 game road trip, while Lafayette is in the middle of a 5 game home stand. The price is a little more than I was hoping to pay, but the spot alone makes this a play.
Dave Price
Philadelphia 76ers +17.5
The Philadelphia 76ers have really been a great bet at the pay window here in recent weeks. They have gone 3-5 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They only lost by 10 to Cleveland as 16.5-point dogs, by 4 to Chicago as 8.5-point dogs, and by 6 to New York as 10-point dogs. They won outright as underdogs over the Blazers (+6) by 25, Magic (+7) by 9 and the Suns (-2) by 10 as well. Off two straight blowout home wins over the Spurs and Mavs, the Warriors are laying too many points on the road tonight against the 76ers. The same thing happened in Philadelphia last year. Golden State was a 15-point favorite and only came away with an 89-84 victory over the 76ers, failing to cover the spread by 10 points. The 76ers are certainly capable of staying within 17.5 points with the way they are playing right now. The 76ers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 12.5 points or more.
Jim Feist
Wizards vs. Rockets
Play: Wizards +5½
The Washington Wizards are rested with a strong offense, and the Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Washington has a winning record on the road. Houston is home but a bad defensive team, No. 27 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 26 in field goal shooting defense. The Rockets are 5-14 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference. Houston is in the second of a back to back spot, at Oklahoma City last night. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS playing on no days rest, plus 1-5 ATS at home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And when these teams clash the road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings and the Wizards are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Houston.
Art Aronson
Warriors vs. 76ers
Play: 76ers +17
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
For this particular selection, we're keeping it simple:
Letdown/look-ahead spot: The defending champs come into this one at 42-4 overall and having won five straight, including massive victories at Cleveland, at Chicago and then at home over the Pacers, Spurs and Mavericks. With a game in New York tomorrow night, it's obviously not too hard to imagine the Warriors coming into this one a bit complacent in facing the lowly 7-40 Philadelphia 76ers. And it almost also assuredly means that the Golden State starters are going to get some extra time off, so look for the home side to make a serious push in the second half.
Under the radar improvement: With a 4-17 home record, it's a little funny to say that the 76ers are actually looking like they're finally starting to play a little better, but with two wins in their last four games, that is in fact the case for Philadelphia (the 76ers are actually 6-4 ATS in their last ten games for bettors).
The bottom line: There definitely seem to be a lot of great situational factors working in favor of the home side in this particular matchup and when combined with what we feel to be an extremely healthy spread, we'll indeed recommend a second look at PHILADELPHIA tonight.
Ray Monohan
Sacramento vs Memphis
Play: Memphis -2½
The Grizzlies take on the Kings on Saturday and have value here as Sacramento is reeling. The Kings have dropped 3 straight after rattling off 5 straight wins as they’ve completely lost it defensively. Sacramento has allowed well above 100 points in each loss and this is not a good spot for them. Look for the Grizzlies to use Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol to slow down DeMarcus Cousins, which will leave the Kings with absolutely no answer offensively here. Memphis should be able to use their depth and contributions from the bench to take down the Kings Saturday. MEM are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games, and are 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Sacramento.
Andre Ramirez
Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan
Play: Western Michigan -2
Western Michigan is 3-0 at home against Eastern Michigan. Western Michigan has the edge in size, and can bully the inside in rebounds. Eastern Michigan is 5-8 ATS, while Eastern Michigan is 6-4 ATS when going head to head. I like Western Michigan by 8 points.
Jack Jones
Georgetown -2
The Georgetown Hoyas (13-8) are finally starting to play up to their potential. They knocked off Xavier on the road and Creighton at home, and played in tight losses to Villanova (by 5) and UConn (by 6) in their last four games. They are now 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.
But the Hoyas need to keep adding signature wins to their resume, and they have another great opportunity to do that today at home against Providence. While I like this Friars team, I believe they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here as only 2-point road dogs.
That respect has come from an upset win at Villanova on Sunday in overtime. But the Friars promptly laid an egg in their next game in a 7-point home loss to Xavier. Yet they're still getting treated like the team that beat Villanova from oddsmakers as only 2-point dogs here, when they should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 6-point dogs.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 6-2 SU in the last eight meetings. Georgetown is 9-2 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Providence. The Hoyas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Rob Vinciletti
Pistons vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -7½
Toronto has covered 5 straight at home off a home spread loss and they are 5-0 to the spread off a win. Detroit comes in with no rest off a home loss to Cleveland and they are 0-7 ats on the road with no rest off a home game. Non division home favorites that are off a home favored win and spread loss by 1-3 points like Toronto have covered over 80% if they scored 100 or more and their opponent was a home dog. The Raptors have rest and revenge here and the straight up winner in the Pistons games this year has covered every time.