Big Al
Washington vs. Houston
Pick: Washington
Last night, the Rockets dropped a road game at Oklahoma City, while the Wizards had the night off following their 4-point loss at home to Denver on Thursday. But I look for the Wizards to snap their 3-game losing streak tonight, as they'll be playing an unrested Rockets squad which will also be playing its 5th game in seven nights. And Houston's an awful 12-34 ATS at home when playing its fifth game in seven nights.
Jesse Schule
Sacramento vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis
Only three teams in the NBA have more home wins than the Grizzlies, and the Cleveland Cavaliers aren't one of them. That's right, the Grizzlies are money at home, but they still get no respect from bookmakers. Even though they have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 home games, they are just a slight favorite at home to the Kings on Saturday. The Kings are 8-14 on the road, and they've lost nine of their last 10 against the Grizzlies. They scored an average of just 92 points per game in those losses.
They've lost four straight at Memphis, and they've failed to score more than 90 points in seven of their last 10 games against the Grizzlies. The Kings come in as losers of three straight, and another road loss looms large here in Memphis. Rudy Gay has missed the last two games with an eye injury, and he's likely to sit out again tonight. The Grizzlies have won six of their last seven overall, and five straight at home.
MMA OddsBreaker
Barberena vs. Northcutt
Pick: Barberena
Okay, I'm sure some of you might be thinking I'm crazy. Bryan Barberena is a pretty hefty underdog coming into his bout against "Super" Sage Northcutt, the 19-year old phenom with a physique chiselled from marble.
Looks are one thing, but skills are more important. Barberena is a very physical and durable fighter. If he can keep this fight upright and make it a bit ugly in the linch or at close range, he has the tools necessary to not only hurt Northcutt but pick up the win. Northcuttt is quicker, more explosive and has the threat of the takedown, but Barberena comes from a great training environment at the MMA Lab and he has the skills to give the youngster fits.
Don't forget, Sage Northcutt lost the first round of his last fight just one and a half months ago before coming back with a guillotine choke submission. If Barberena can avoid making any major mistakes or getting off to a super slow start, he can pull this off.
Tony George
Bradley +10.5
Even though the Braves are a bad team, Drake has NO business laying double digits to anyone in the Mo Valley. Also there will not be a ton of scoring here which also brings into play double digits numbers. Yes Bradley is only averaging 53 ppg on the road which is scary but again this is about the line and I would never lay 10.5 points with a team who has 5 wins on the season. Battle of uglies here and I will take an ugly dog cover!.
Jimmy Boyd
Seton Hall vs. Creighton
Play: Creighton -5½
This is a huge bounce back spot for Creighton after giving away a road win in a 73-74 loss at Georgetown on Tuesday. The Bluejays had complete control of that game and let their foot off the gas. Those kind of losses don't sit well with a team and I expect an all-out effort here at home against Seton Hall.
Creighton already knocked off the Pirates on the road 82-67 and there was a noticeable gap between the execution of these two teams. While Seton Hall will be out for revenge, I just don't see Creighton overlooking this team after the way they lost last time out. The Pirates come in off a 79-60 win over St Johns (winless in Big East), but had lost 4 of their previous 5.
Blue Jays are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record, 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 conference games, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss.
Alex Smart
Pistons vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -7½
The Raptors enter this game on a 10 game winning streak, with their L/4 wins all coming by DDs as they seemingly are getting stronger. The Dinos also play well as home favorites and are bankroll expanding 21-10 ATS as home chalk for their betting backers. Meanwhile, Detroit enters this game on tired legs after a 114-106 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night, and in a natural letdown spot. Toronto has done extremely well against top tier rebounding teams like Motowns as is evident by a 8-0 ATS L/9 vs.sides that are outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game over the last few seasons winning SU by an average of 8.1 ppg.
Jeff Saad
Spurs at Cavs
Play: Under
Clash of styles as Cleveland under its new coach wants to run but San Antonio prefers a slow pace, No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed (90.6 ppg). The problem for LeBron and the Cavs is that they also played last night and the under is 5-1 when the Cavaliers are playing on no days rest. San Antonio will control the pace and they are 5-1 under the total playing on 2 days rest.
Mr. Vegas
Denver at Indiana
Play: Over
Denver heads to Indiana with a bad defense, No. 23 in the NBA in points allowed, No. 24 in FG shooting defense. Denver is on a 7-2 run over the total. They head to Indiana, a team that just came home from a long road trip and the offense clicked in a 111-92 rout of Atlanta. The over is 5-1 in the Pacers last 6 games playing on one days rest. The Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings and this shapes up as an uptempo offensive shootout.
Harry Bondi
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -5.5 over Miami-Ohio
Northern Illinois had won nine of 10 before losing 76-66 on the road to Akron Tuesday night, but that puts them in a nice situation here this afternoon since the Huskies are 15-5 ATS the last three years following a loss in conference. The MAC losses have been few and far between for Northern Illinois, which has covered five of seven in conference this season and is 29-13 ATS dating back to 2013. Miami-Ohio is clearly a team playing out the string. The team has lost 10 straight games straight up and has been a pointspread disaster, covering just five of 16 games overall this year, including a 1-7 ATS record on its home floor. Lay the points on the road!
Jimmy Moore
San Antonio Spurs -2.5
Have to love the Spurs here since they beat the Cavs in San Antonio a couple of weeks ago in a game that was not as close as the final score was. San Antonio is awesome on the road and they have covered 13 of their last 16 Saturday games. Cleveland is still feeling their way around with their new coach and they are trying to change their game which will have then out of sync here. Also a big edge from the schedule maker for San Antonio as they have had a couple of days off while Cleveland had to play in Detroit on Friday night. Take the Spurs here.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – Virginia (+5½) over LOUISVILLE
Neither of these teams has been playing up to expectations lately, as Virginia is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games while Louisville is on a 2-7 ATS run. I like Virginia in this game given their history of playing relatively better against better teams while Louisville tends to play relatively worse against good teams. Virginia is 18-4 ATS as a road underdog the last 5-plus years and the Cavaliers are an incredible 40-10-2 ATS against teams with a .700 or better win percentage (after at least 3 games) when not favored by more than 11 points – including 4-0 ATS this season with wins and covers against West Virginia, Villanova, Notre Dame and Miami. My ratings favor Louisville by 5½ points so the line is fair, and I’ll lean with Virginia plus the points given their great history against other good teams under coach Bennett.
Opinion – Boston College (+27) over NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina has won 11 consecutive games since losing at Texas but hosting a slumping Boston College team (7 consecutive losses all by double-digits) just 2 days before a big game at Louisville constitutes a letdown spot. Conference favorites of 14 points or more are just 48-102-2 ATS after 10 or more wins when facing a team off 2 or more losses and the Tarheels apply to a few more letdown situations. My ratings favor UNC by 27 points (with Robinson out for BC) without the standard letdown factored in, so the line is fair, and North Carolina is 0-5 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite in ACC games. I’ll lean with Boston College based on the situation.
Mid American Sports
Texas A&M -4
A&M is for real, having already thumped Baylor by 19 earlier this year. Aggies are coming off a disappointing loss, Iowa State coming off a statement win. Ags want to prove they are for real. They are. They get it done today.
Oklahoma -5
Lots of hype as Buddy Heild vs Ben Simmons. What I see here is that OU without Heild is still a Top 15 team, LSU with Simmons isn't even a TOP 25 team. LSU will have the home court advantage, which might keep this game close, but OU is simply way too much for LSU.
Texas Tech +5.5
This is an improved Tech team, and Arkansas coming off a big, big win could be ripe for a let down. I'm really liking the line movement here, too.
Kansas -4.5
KU could beat the Warriors in Allen Fieldhouse, but would struggle to beat a high school team on the road. Fortunately for the Jayhawks, the game is at Allen. KU by 10-12 in this one, as they pull away late.
Georgia +11.5
For the record, I am a Baylor alum. What I see here is that Baylor had a nice win Wednesday night at Okie State, and they have Texas (which for Baylor is a rivalry game) coming in for Big Monday. Kind of a sandwich spot for Baylor, they could be vulnerable to laying an egg today. Bears get the win, but it will be a struggle.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Dayton Flyers in-season revenge against the La Salle Explorers.
Somehow La Salle managed to upset the Flyers back on January 9th in Philly, 61-57 in a game the Flyers were favored by 12 points!
This one is going to turn ugly fast for the visitors, as La Salle is in the midst of a 5-game slide since their upset of Dayton, and all 5 of the losses have come by double-digits, including this week's 27-point thumping at Duquesne.
Dayton meanwhile has won all 5 of their games since that setback in Philadelphia, and they have covered in each of their last 4 wins.
The Flyers have won each of the last 4 series meetings at home against the Explorers, and they have covered in each of the past 3 on their home floor against La Salle.
It's a big number, but the Explorers are showing no signs of life right now, so lay away!
4* DAYTON
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over the LSU Tigers. At the time of this writing, the Sooners are laying 4 to 5 points in Vegas and offshore. As always, try to find the best number and do it early as I believe this number will continue to rise.
This is one of the most anticipated matchups of the entire basketball season because it features two candidates for player of the year.
Ben Simmons vs. Buddy Hield should be all we wanted it to be... but factor in these two players canceling each other out --- then what?
Then it comes down to defense, the supporting cast, and free throws. I give two of those three to Oklahoma and that's why I believe they'll cover tonight.
The Sooners are absolutely ridiculous from three point range and even if they get down by 9 points, a few shots from distance combined with a few stops and they're right back in the game.
Should be fun to watch, but in the end the Sooners should win this one by 8-10 points.
Take Oklahoma minus the points as your free play of the day.
4* OKLAHOMA
Brad Wilton
Comp play winner for the Saturday college card goes on Purdue to wake up at home and put a pasting on Nebraska in Big Ten action.
The Boilers were lucky to escape at Minnesota on Wednesday night, as Purdue won by four in a game they were favored by 14 1/2 points. Look for the home-cooking to have them back to their blowout ways, as Matt Painter's team has gone 12-1 straight up in West Lafayette this season, covering 6 of their 9 lined home contests. In fact, Purdue is now 17-8 against the spread their last 25 lined home dates.
Nebraska has traditionally struggled away from Lincoln, but are actually having a decent go of things away from home this season at 4-4 straight up.
The fact remains the Cornhuskers have lost 4 of their last 5 trips to Mackey Arena, and are 2-3 against the spread in those 5 contests.
Boilermakers are due for a blowout, and the Huskers happen to be in the gym in West Lafayette on the wrong day.
Boiler Up!
2* PURDUE