Bruce Marshall
Tulsa -14
After missing 23 of 26 beyond the arc in Wednesday's loss at Houston, expect Tulsa to quickly regain its balance and pick up where it left off before arriving at Hofheinz Pavilion, as the Golden Hurricane had been unbeaten SU and vs. spread in five straight prior to visiting the Cougs. Remember, Tulsa shot much better 48% from floor when it carved up the soft Tulane defense in an easy 81-67 win and cover at New Orleans on Jan. 10. Speaking of shooting troubles beyond the arc, note that the Green Wave is connecting on only 29.7% of its triples as it has lost touch in recent games vs. American foes, losing and failing to cover its last four, never closer than 13.
Sleepyj
Denver +8
I really don't trust the Pacers to lay this kind of number...I also don't trust the Nuggets defense either...My number cam out -6 Indy..So grabbing an extra basket seems fine here...I'm not sold Indy can even win this game..The Pacer defense hasn't been that great over the last few weeks and they always let teams go on a run...Denver is a team that can run and they have plenty of players to keep this game within reach...A pure fade of Indy here tonight...If you have not watched the Pacers Miles Turner, you are going to see a player who will be very good in this league in a few years..The guy has all the talent and his upside is unthinkable IMO...Play the Nuggets here.
Larry Ness
Oklahoma at Louisiana State
Pick: Oklahoma
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One of the most anticipated games of the season tips off Saturday when No. 1 Oklahoma visits LSU in a non-conference showdown as part of the Big 12/SEC Challenge. Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield bypassed last year's NBA draft and returned to Oklahoma for his senior season to hone his game and compete for a national championship. LSU’s Ben Simmons is the latest “next great player” and is making a ‘pit stop’ at LSU this season (as a freshman), on his way to the NBA. “I can't wait for the Buddy Hield-Ben Simmons matchup," Hield told the Tulsa World. "It's a good game for college basketball, a lot of hype to it. Two of the best players in college are playing."
He’s sure right about that. Hield is averaging 25.9 PPG and 5.8 RPG, while the 6-10 Simmons averages 19.8-12.7-4.6. They currently rank as the top-two contenders for p-o-y honors and both will be highly sought after in the next NBA draft. However, the 17-2 sooners are a threat to win the national championship, while the 13-7 Tigers may not even make the Big Dance. It’s not as if LSU doesn’t have talent surrounding Simmons, as it does. Veteran guards Hornsby (13.2) and Quarterman (11.6-4.8-3.6) plus freshman Blakeney (9.7) comprise an excellent perimeter group and the 6-9 Victor (12.8-6.6) is a solid frontcourt partner to Simmons.
For Oklahoma, Hield and Cousins have formed a special bond over their first three seasons in Norman plus PG Woodard is more than just a ‘third wheel.’ Woodard (14.9-3.4-3.9) and Cousins (13.1-4.3-4.5) join Hield to give Oklahoma a backcourt to match ANY in college hoops, while the 6-8 Spangler (10.7-9.7) is averaging right at a double-double plus 6-9 sophomore Lattin (6.3-6.4) has become a solid player. On the coaching sidelines, this game is a total mismatch. LSU’s Johnny Jones often seems lost, while Oklahoma’s Kruger is one of the best in the business.
Lon Kruger took Oklahoma to the Sweet 16 last year, where the Sooners lost just 62-58 to Michigan St. So what else is new? Oklahoma is the FIFTH school that Kruger’s taken to the “Big Dance” and after going 15-16 in his first season at Oklahoma, last year’s Sweet 16 appearance was the school’s THIRD straight NCAA appearance, winning 20-plus games each year. Big 12 sources say Kruger believes this is perhaps his most unselfish team, which is saying something considering his three decades as a head coach, leading Kansas St, Florida, Illinois, UNLV and Oklahoma to NCAA bids.
I’m on the road favorite, the nation’s No. 1 team.
Hollywood Sports
Clemson at Florida State
Pick: Florida State
The Tigers (13-7) will be playing just their second game on the road since January 5th. Clemson begins a challenging three-game road trip with this contest -- and they are just 2-5 on the road while being outscored by -6.5 PPG. Florida State (13-7) returns home off a 72-62 win at Boston College. The Seminoles are 6-2 on their home court with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG. Florida State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Lay the points with the Seminoles.
David Banks
Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas A&M Aggies
Pick: Texas A&M Aggies -4.5
Looking at the matchup between 19th-ranked Iowa State and No. 10 Texas A&M might leave some scratching their heads. Who would have thought the Aggies would be unbeaten, in first place in the SEC, and ranked in the Top 10 at this point in the season? Who would have thought that the Cyclones would claim a win over the nation’s No. 1 ranked team (Oklahoma)?
Iowa State travels to College Station to take on the Aggies on Saturday. Texas A&M is among the bigger surprises this season. They are currently 17-2 and sport wins over Gonzaga, Texas, Baylor, and LSU. A date with perennial SEC power Kentucky looms, but the Aggies and head coach Billy Kennedy are for real. Jalen Jones leads Texas A&M in scoring and rebounding averaging 17.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. If Iowa State is to have a chance, they will have to take care of Jones.
The Cyclones are good and experienced. Georges Niang is a 6-8 senior who has won the Big 12’s Player of the Year award. He averages 19.3 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. He gets a ton of help from junior Monte Morris (15.2 ppg, 6.8 apg) and 6-9 junior Jameel McKay (13.2 ppg, 9.3 rpg). Iowa State is deep too as head coach Steve Prohm can go eight deep. Six Cyclones average in double figures. Texas A&M would be wise to not get into a shootout with the Cyclones, who average over 84 points a game.
BRANDON LEE
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Play: Texas Tech +5
This is all about the situation and which one of these team is going to want this game more. I believe that's going to be Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are desperate for a win after losing 6 of their last 7, but it's not like this team hasn't been competitive. Arkansas on the other hand is poised for a major letdown after their biggest win of the season just 3 days ago, as they handed Texas A&M their first conference loss in a 74-71 home win. Razorbacks are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an upset conference win as a home dog.
SPORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA +104 over West Virginia
The Mountaineers come in ranked #9 in the country but all that does is give West Virginia more credit than they deserve. We'll now look to take advantage of WVU's market appeal and high stock. The Mountaineers have played just five road games this season. They are 4-1 in those games but they had trouble with TCU, they went into double OT at K-State and they barely escaped Texas Tech winning by just four. At Oklahoma, the Mountaineers lost by just two but that is misleading too, as the Sooners shot a horrible 33% from the floor and a mere 29% from downtown, yet they still won the game. Had the Sooners shot even a little closer to their season averages, they would have defeated the Mountaineers by double digits. The “great defense” argument doesn't hold up either, as OU was missing open looks all game. Road games vs. strong foes are not where Bruce Weber earns his money, and bettors who choose visitors shooting 28% from three-point range against a good defensive home side figure to have a hard time earning theirs.
Florida's strength of schedule ranks 10th in the country. They come into this game with a 9-1 home mark with only loss coming against Florida State by a single bucket. The Gators are 5-3 in conference play and 4-2 over their last six games. Both of Florida's recent losses were by three and one point respectively at #15 Texas A&M and at Vanderbilt. The Gators may not be ranked but they are a top-10 rebounding outfit and rank highly in other defensive categories too. Gainesville has been one of the toughest venues in the nation over the past several years for a road team to waltz into and leave victorious. Now WVU will have to go to Florida and be hounded almost as much as they like to hound others and we don't trust the Mountaineers on the road to execute better than the host.
Vanderbilt +126 over TEXAS
With Texas boasting a higher strength of schedule and RPI than Vanderbilt, combined with its 10-1 home record on the season, it has plenty of appeal here. Furthermore, the 'Horns have had plenty of exposure lately with their near miss at Kansas last Saturday, where they led by five at the half and their win over West Virginia the game before Kansas. In their last game, the revenge-minded Longhorns whacked TCU, 71-54. There is also the angle of Vandy having to travel all the way to Austin for a non-conference road game in late January. All of the above sets up this nice sell-high scenario on Texas.
The 'Horns sole defeat at home came against UConn, a team also with a lower RPI and strength of schedule than Texas. There are stark differences between Vanderbilt and UConn. Vandy boasts the 29th strongest schedule in America to UConn’s 74th ranked schedule and to further complement this, Vanderbilt’s RPI is 56 to UConn’s 73. Texas was a -2½ point home favorite over the Huskies, yet they lost 71-66. Texas does have some thrilling victories this year that include an overtime win over Iowa State earlier this month and a remarkable two-point heist against top-ranked UNC in December, who were ranked #3 at the time of the match. The difference between those games and this one is that the Longhorns were not expected to win those games. The role of the favorite is a much different animal than the role of the home dog in conference play. The Longhorns have had a good run but in no way are we convinced it's going to last. This is a host that has these little guards running around and a couple of big stiffs at the 4 and 5 spots. Furthermore, the Longhorns play at #17 Baylor on Monday, so it is they, not the Commodores, that may be at a disadvantage in regards to this non-conference tilt in January.
We always pay attention to what the oddsmakers think. When Vanderbilt played Kansas, Vandy was a 2½-point pooch but when Kansas played Texas, the Longhorns were a 12½-point pooch. When you give four points for home court advantage it still leaves a big discrepancy between what the oddsmakers believed Vanderbilt was capable of against Kansas as opposed to what they believed the Longhorns were capable of.
Vanderbilt has had a very tough schedule without any notable wins, as they have lost to all five ranked teams that they have played (Kansas, South Carolina, Baylor, Purdue and Kentucky). Hell, the Commodores have also lost to LSU, Dayton and Arkansas. Losing to both LSU and Arkansas is rather shocking but again, we pay more attention to what the oddsmakers think than what the market thinks. All those losses do not bother the oddsmakers and to us, that sticks out big time. Call it a funk of sorts that the Commodores were in but make no mistake about it, Vanderbilt is a high quality outfit that plays with a chip on its shoulder. This precept is directly reflected in the Commodores virtually shutting down the three-ball, as they are one of the best in the country at doing so. In fact, the Commodores are among the best in making their opponents shoot poorly against them with an astounding 37.9%. Vanderbilt is also one of the best at shooting the three in the country, hitting over 40% of their shots beyond the arc. We can talk about all the intangibles but at the end of the day Vanderbilt has a clear-cut blueprint for success if they are able to execute. The 'Dores shoot better, they defend better, they're bigger and they're more desperate for victories. More importantly, the oddsmakers have set the tone here by making the Longhorns, a team that appears to be better on paper, a very appealing tiny favorite at home (Texas opened as a -1-point choice). That speaks volumes and instantly prompts us to buy low on the superior Commodores.
Old Dominion -3½ over FIU
Generally speaking, we're not in favor of spotting road points in conference play but there are exceptions to everything and this is one such exception. You see, the Monarchs are a weak 4-13 against the spread this year so the market is not anxious to get behind them right now, especially considering that both teams are 11-10 overall and that FIU (5-3) has a better conference mark than ODU (4-4). We couldn't care less because all that does is give us a sweeter price to beat. Fact is, the Panthers have played one of the easiest schedules in America, as their 337th ranked strength of schedule will attest to. FIU has defeated two Division II programs among its 11 wins. Other non-conference victories came against Tennessee Martin, LIU Brooklyn, Binghamton and Florida A&M. Four if FIU's five conference victories occurred against the teams at the bottom of the C-USA. The Panthers passive defense will give ODU good looks that haven’t been there lately and ODU’s team defense is several notches above the barely-there levels of D that FIU has faced in a string of games versus all of the above.
The Monarch's strength of schedule is well over 100 positions higher than FIU's. Old Dominion has faced Purdue, St. Joe's, VCU, Richmond and Rhode Island among others in its non-conference slate and didn't look a bit out of place in four of those tough games while picking up a victory over Rhode Island. Unlike the Panthers, the Monarchs conference schedule thus far has been against the top teams in C-USA, which include first place UAB, second place Marshall, third place, Mid-Tennessee and fifth place, Louisiana Tech. The Panthers reside in fourth and the Monarchs reside in sixth. This is a true case of extremely misleading records and talent going head to head. The Monarchs are going to look up and see FIU above them and what is going to follow is a correction in the standings and respective records. OD is coming off a win over Florida Atlantic. They stayed put in the region after a 12-point victory and we're suggesting that FIU won't even get that close.
Dave Essler
UNLV -4
Liked the Rebels here out of the gate last night - and with that total climbing (that I do not think is a setup, but I was wrong once before) that should be beneficial to the home team with the better offense. Hopefully we get the "good" Rebels - they're favored over 8-0 (Conference play) SDSU for a reason, IMO, and FWIW UNLV statistically #1 ranked two point defense in the MWC - and SDSU isn't going to beat you playing behind the arc.
Wunderdog
La Salle @ Dayton
Pick: La Salle +20
Dayton is flying high after holding St. Louis to 37 points the last game, but they face a La Salle squad that is going to slow the pace down. La Salle doesn't like to run, scoring 61 or fewer points in seven straight. That included a 61-57 win over this Dayton team as a +12 dog! Redshirt junior Jordan Price had 17 points in that game. Price is currently #20 in the nation in scoring at 20.8 points per game; he leads the Big 5 and is second in the Atlantic 10. They are better and deeper since as Rohan Brown, who missed seven games with a knee injury, returned to action on January 24 versus Saint Joseph's. He played 19 minutes against the Hawks and now gives La Salle eight scholarship players. Take the points on La Salle.
Bruce Marshall
Northern Arizona at Idaho State
Play: Idaho State -6.5
The Bengals have a few more highlights than their modest record suggests, with SU wins as a double-digit dog at Portland and Portland State, plus at Pocatello vs. Weber State. The last two of those came back-to-back within the past week and suggest ISU might be a team to watch, thanks largely to juco G Ethan Telfair (18.4 ppg for the season but 27.6 ppg last five; younger brother of Sebastian and cousin to Stephon Marbury). ISU now has three wins and covers in a row after Thursday's 87-68 romp past Southern Utah. Meanwhile, NAU continues to skid, with losses for the Lumberjacks in their last five and 13 of 14.
3G-Sports
Detroit Pistons vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -7.5
Toronto finally have got their complete package player in Kyle Lowry. They know who he is, and he does it perfectly for this team. This will be another game to showcase his skills. When the Pistons play defense they have drilled teams. But, Ersan Ilyasova seems to have recently forgotten how to cover his man, and that's going to hurt them tremendously here. Pistons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days rest and played a tough uptempo game last night against Cleveland PLUS they had to travel. Toronto wins by 15 tonight!
Andrew Lange
Austin Peay at Southeast Missouri St
Play: Under 142
Southeast Missouri first-year head coach Rick Ray has been through a lot this season. The RedHawks opened 0-10 and then 0-6 in OVC play. He's had to kick a few guys off the team and experiment both offensively and defensively in order to give his kids a chance to compete. Something appears to have clicked as Ray has his squad back to playing man-to-man defense and it's resulted in three straight wins and 61, 60 (OT), and 51 points allowed. The competition of a D2 and two lower-tier OVC squads helped, but it's a lot better than their four previous games in which they allowed 87.3 ppg and were blown out each time. Austin Peay classifies as lower-tier OVC with a 2-6 conference record and the 11th-ranked offensive efficiency. The Governors do defend a little as they held the two best offenses in the OVC, Tennessee Tech and Belmont, to 72 and 76 respectively. That suggests APSU should be able to handle a SEMO offense that ranks 341 nationally in offensive efficiency. In the end, if SEMO plays close to the type of defense it has in its last three games vs. its season-long numbers, there's a good chance the under cashes.
Raphael Esparza
Pascal / Kovalev Under 9.5
Heavy hands will be displayed Saturday night at the Bell Centre Montreal, Canada, and I don't see this fight going the distance. Jean Pascal has already tasted the mat against Sergey Kovalev last year when the champ TKO him in the 8th round. The champ Sergey Kovalev is 28-0, with 25 of those fights coming by knockout. Both fighters have heavy hands, but again I see the champ going to Pascal's body early then in the middle of the fight Kovalev will finish him in the either rounds 7 through 9. Sergey 'Krusher' Kovalev is just too good and Saturday night in Montreal the champ will go home the champ.
Strike Point Sports
Purdue (-12) over Nebraska
The Boilermakers have dominated opponents in West Lafayette this season, and that won't change when Nebraska visits Purdue this weekend. Matt Painter's program has already racked up home wins against Vanderbilt by 13, Michigan by 17 and Ohio State by 11. More of the same is likely against an even lesser road opponent in the Cornhuskers. Besides, Nebraska already earned their shock road win at MSU last time on the road, and I don't think they are consistent enough to find another upset win away from Lincoln.
Allen Eastman
Arkansas (-3) over Texas Tech
The SEC and Big 12 are having an interconference showdown on Saturday. There are a lot of big games and great matchups. This is not a matchup that is going to be on anyone's radar. But that is good news for us. This is a really experienced Arkansas team going up against a really young Texas Tech team. If Arkansas loses to A&M on Wednesday (they are home underdogs) then the Razorbacks will be nursing an 0-4 slide. They are in desperate need of a win. Texas Tech has lost five of six games and their only win came over TCU. This Red Raiders team has only played three road games all year. They have lost two. And Arkansas has one of the best home-court advantages in the South. Texas Tech plays No. 1 Oklahoma on Tuesday and then has a home game against Oklahoma State next week. In between is this game at Arkansas, and I don't think the young kids will play their best. I'm laying the short number here with Arkansas.