Brad Wilton
Free play winner for Saturday is the Golden State Warriors as the road favorite in Philadelphia.
No issue laying the road wood today, as the Warriors continue their quest for that 72-10 mark the Bulls posted in the 1980's. Golden State enters play today at 42-4, and they have had little trouble when installed as a -9 points or better favorite this season on the road, going 5-2 in that situation.
Philly has been playing better, but they are still a money-burning 2-9 their last 11 dating back to last year when catching +9 points or more on their home floor.
Golden State has not played since Tuesday night when they wiped their home floor with the Dallas Mavericks, 127-107, and while they will be in action on Sunday at the New York Knicks, I simply cannot see the 7-40 Sixers hanging inside of this impost.
Lay it with Golden State.
5* GOLDEN STATE
JOSEPH D'AMICO
Nevada vs. Utah State
Play: Nevada +5½
Nevada is quietly making their presence known in the MWC. Just in the past week, the Wolfpack beat both the Cowboys and the Rebels (both as an outright 'dog) and then had the League-leading Aztecs on the ropes at the buzzer. Utah State is ice-cold, dropping 5 of their L7, both SU and ATS. The best player on the floor is Guard, Marqueze Coleman (17.8 ppg) but the player who's been getting all the ink is Forward, Cameron Oliver, whose 51 blocked shots has made Nevada very tough in the defense of paint. The Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS their L5 vs. the MWC, while the Aggies are 2-5 their L7 vs. the MWC.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Memphis +10½
SMU aims to rebound from its first loss of the season Saturday when it hosts Memphis in American Athletic Conference action. The Mustangs were the lone remaining undefeated Division I team before falling at Temple last weekend 89-80. Temple enjoyed one of the program’s great long-range shooting games of modern times when they took apart SMU for forty minutes in the snow-delay special of last Sunday afternoon. Memphis snapped a two-game skid its last time out, defeating UCF by 11 behind a career-high 35 points from Shaq Goodwin. Tigers don’t have have the physical strength to stay under this number.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
St. Mary's vs. Pacific
Play: Pacific +11½
The ugly home dog theory is certainly at work here. St Mary's is, of course, the vastly superior team. But don't overlook what a big home dog is capable of especially when they are overlooked. In this case, since St Mary's has won all 5 meetings between these teams the last 3 seasons combined, I would not be surprised to see the Gaels look right past the Tigers as St Mary's has a much tougher game (at BYU) on deck. The Gaels enter tonight's match-up having failed to cover in four straight games despite shooting the ball very well. Of course that says a lot about how weak some other aspects of St Mary's basketball have been in recent weeks. As for Pacific, they come into this game having gone 3-2 SU in their last 5 games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 lined games. With that said, despite their poor overall record on the season, the Tigers have been moving in the right direction and this is a prime example of a situation where the betting markets haven't truly adjusted to where these teams are at right now. Look for the Tigers to make it 6 covers in a row while dropping St Mary's to a 5th straight ATS loss!
Dr. Bob
Opinion - ARKANSAS LITTLE ROCK (-7½) over Georgia State
Arkansas Little Rock is 18-2 with both losses coming on the road and my ratings favor the Trojans by 10 points against a struggling Georgia State team that’s lost 3 of their last 4 games and are just 6-10 ATS for the season (0-4 ATS recently). I’d have played this game as a Best Bet if not for a 77-32-2 ATS bounce-back situation that favors Georgia State. The line value favoring UALR is more significant than the situation favoring Georgia State so I’ll lean with Little Rock minus the points.
Opinion – St. Mary’s (-11½) over PACIFIC
Pacific is improved since leading scorer Alec Kobre joined the team after missing the first 6 games and St. Mary’s is no longer the most underrated team in the nation (they started the season 12-0 ATS). However, St. Mary’s is 56-30-3 ATS as a road favorite in Randy Bennett’s tenure as head coach and the Gaels tend to beat the teams that they are supposed to beat. In fact. St. Mary’s is now 75-28-2 ATS under Bennett if favored by 12 points or less against a team with a win percentage of less than .550. My ratings favor the Gaels by 12 ½ points, so there is still some line value, and I’ll lean with the Gaels at -12 or less based on the team trends.