Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday June, 9

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

The Twins and Cubs meet in Game Two of their three-game Interleague series Saturday afternoon when Scott Diamond opposes Jeff Samardzjia in the Twin Cities. Diamond has been a gem at home for the Twins this season where he is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA. Diamond is also in solid KW form with 23 strikeouts and 6 walks in his six starts this campaign. On the flip side, Samardzjia enters with a road ERA (4.45) that is 2.49 runs higher that his home ERA (1.96) this season. With that look for the Cubs to fall to 1-9 on Saturdays, their worst day of the week this season, here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

Jesse Schule

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, and despite the fact that I have been riding them hard during this hot streak, I didn't play them yesterday. I probably should have, because while Seattle's pitching staff combined to pitch a no-hitter, I ended up striking out at the ballpark yesterday.

Today the Mariners will start Jason Vargas, who has been solid lately, winning in his last two starts over the Angels and the Rangers. Vargas (7-4, 3.64) allowed four runs and eight hits, but struck out a season high eight batters in his last start versus the Angels. He has been superb in his career in interleague play, going 5-2 with a 1.95 ERA in seven starts. You would have to think the Dodgers will be a step down in comparison to his last two opponents, and I expect him to improve on those already solid numbers.

The Dodgers hand the ball to Clayton Kershaw, who was a 20 game winner last season. This season has been a different story, he is 4-3, with a 2.55 ERA, but is winless in his last three starts. He has reportedly been suffering from plantar fasciitis (a sore foot in layman's terms). If his recent performances are any indication, the foot troubles have really affected his pitching. "They're trying different tape and things at night to help it go away," said the Dodger's manager.

The way Seattle is hitting the ball lately, and with the play they are getting from their bullpen, they aren't likely to be very sympathetic to an opponent with a sore foot. I like Seattle here to win at home as an underdog.

Rob Vinciletti

Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Texas Rangers

The Rangers fit a solid 83% system that plays on road favorites off a road favored win at -140 or more with a total that was 8 or less and had 10 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a home dog loss and scored 2 or less runs. Texas is averaging over 5 runs per game on .310 hitting vs the National league and over 5 runs per game in day games. The Giants are scoring just 3.2 runs per game at home. Look for Feldman to bounce back here today and out pitch Voglesong.

Charlie Scott

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play:Los Angeles Dodgers

I don't play too many favorites in MLB, I generally look to cherry pick dogs or Totals. However, the Dodgers -135 seems like a cheap price for a winner. Look for the Dodgers to bounce back from being No-Hit Friday Night. Seattle hasn't had much to celebrate in Baseball the last couple of Years and could be a little Hungover Tonight. The Dodgers are the much better Team in this matchup and are due for some Hits.

Dave Cokin

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Drew Hutchison continues to impress for Toronto and Tommy Hanson has still not really found that sweet spot consistently as he returns from surgery. Good value on the dog at this price, so I'll be backing the Blue Jays.

Jim Feist

Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Last place Chicago has found a terrific arm in Jeff Samardzija, a former reliever who is 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA fanning 71 in 69 innings and only 24 walks. He faces a light hitting Minnesota offense here. The Twins are 16-41 in their last 57 home games and 3-8 in their last 11 games as a home favorite, as well as 3-9 in their last 12 games as a favorite. The Twins are 5-21 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play the Cubs!

SPORTS WAGERS

Kansas City +138 over PITTSBURGH

Price alone dictates the play here, as the Pirates are simply too risky to be spotting a tag like this one. James MacDonald deserves props for his 5-2 record and 2.14 ERA. McDonald has evolved into an effective three-pitch pitcher this season. He threw a slider just 5% of the time in 2011. This season, he is throwing it 19% of the time. His skill base has improved as a result but he’s been greatly aided by an 81% strand rate. His groundball/fly-ball split is an average 40%/40% and his xERA is 3.45. MacDonald is good but not this good and he also pitches for a team with a home AB of.214 BA. After facing the White Sox in relief and subsequently making his first start of the season, Vin Mazzaro shutout the A’s for six innings. He gets another to face another light hitting squad here, one that his strong 49% groundball rate should have success against. It’s a small 12 innings sample but this one isn’t about wagering on Mazzaro. The Royals can hit the ball while the Pirates struggle to do the same. That’s where the value comes in at this price range and we’re buying.. Play: Kansas City +138 (Risking 2 units).

San Diego +130 over MILWAUKEE

The Padres hung up a five in the opener last night against Shaun Marcum and the Brewers pen but the Brew Crew went deep four times and scored nine. Still, San Diego backers have to be encouraged by the 19 runs they’ve scored over their past four games against starters Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Marcum last night. They take a step down in class here when facing 26-year-old rookie Michael Fiers. Fiers has had success in the minors but does not project a strong skill set for this level. His fastball sits in the 88-92 MPH range but the knock on him has been that he does not have a swing and miss pitch. Andrew Cashner has worked out of the pen this year and makes his first start of the season in the more comfortable role of the starter. Cashner's arsenal includes a fastball that touches upward of 98 mph. He’s already struck out 29 batters in 26 frames and when they do make contact, he’s induced an elite 58% groundball rate. His only issue is control, as he’s walked 16 batters and if he can ever straighten that out, he’ll become relevant. Today he faces a Brewer team that has struck out 462 times, ranking them 27 out of 30 teams. Play: San Diego +130 (Risking 2 units).

Pass NBA/NHL

SPORTS WAGERS

Netherlands -1 +147 over Denmark

Holland Orange start their tourney versus rivals Denmark. Only being the first game of the group stage it may seem too early to label this game a must win for Holland but with Germany and Portugal in the same group three points today are hugely important. Leading the way for Holland is one of the most in form and prolific scorers on the planet in Robin Van Persie. He has a gifted supporting cast that includes striker Jan Huntelaar, who lead the German Bundesliga with 29 goals this season. This team is experienced at all positions and will be a major threat in this tournament. Denmark are no mugs and will play hard for 90-plus minutes. A major blow to Denmark was the news that first string keeper Thomas Sorensen will not play due to injury. This is not good news. Going with a backup at that position versus Holland today does not bode well. This game will more than likely see a few goals and we like Holland to outscore the pesky Danes. Play: Netherlands -1 +147 (Risking 2 units).

Germany +122 over Portugal

The Germans at a plus tag regardless of when or where they play is a solid choice. Sure they had a shaky few games prior to this tournament but they were missing key players. The Bayern Munich contingent who were absent will take up at least four starter positions for today’s match and three of those will be back four defenders. Also add key midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger, who is the straw that stirs the German attack and you have a much more dangerous German side moving forward. Portugal is an attack minded team but they can be guilty of relying on one or two players for team success, namely Cristiano Ronaldo and Luis Nani. Given the overall depth of the Germans and the return of Schweinsteiger to the team, success seems more than likely to bless the Germans today. Play: Germany +122 (Risking 2 units).

Ross King

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 while San Diego is 2-8.Milwaukee has won 6 of 8 meetings with San Diego at home.Milwaukee is going for their 5th consecutive win at home.San Diego as a road underdog of +125 to +150 currently 1-10 and 5-20 overall.Take Milwaukee as your freeplay winner as these teams continue heading into opposite directions and ride home field advantage against a bullpen pitcher making his first start.

Dave Price

Pittsburgh Pirates -145

The Royals are now just 5-16 in their last 21 interleague games, and I expect their struggles versus the NL to continue here. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 7 at home and are in good hands with James McDonald, who's 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA. He has been nearly unhittable lately with a 0.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. Also, he has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts. The Royals have dropped 5 of their last 7 in Pittsburgh. Bet the Bucs.

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -135

The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Kyle Lohse, who is 5-1 (8-4 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.21. Cleveland's Justin Masterson is just 2-5 (4-8 on the ML) with an ERA of 5.09. It is also worth noting that his ERA is 9.00 through 4 road starts. The Cardinals are 11-4 in Lohse's last 15 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in his last 8 starts as a home favorite. The Indians are 1-5 in Masterson's last 6 starts and 3-8 in his last 11 starts as a road underdog. In addition, the Indians are 8-20 in their last 28 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter while the Cardinals are 40-19 in their last 59 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. Besides having the advantage on the mound, St. Louis also has the edge at the plate. It's scoring 5.2 runs/game while batting .277 and the Tribe is scoring 4.5 runs/game while hitting .252. Take the Cards.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Boston/ Washington Over 8.5: Dice-K will be making his first start of the year for the Sox and i feel the nats will be able to hit him some. He did have a 3.49 ERA in 6 re-hab starts for Pawtucket this year, but it's interesting to note that he averaged less than 5 innings of work in those starts and you have to feel that since coming off injury he will be on a strict pitch count in this one. He will then be turning the ball over to a Boston pen that has a 4.19 ERA at home, so we should get some late runs here in this one. Dice-K has a solid winning record in this park (27-15), but with a high 4.73 ERA in his 52 starts here, along with a semi-high 1.43 WHIP. Washington is not a great offensive team, but they do score 4.2 rp/9 off of righty starters on the road this year. I expect at least 4 from them here. Gio Gonzalez hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's all year, but he hes yet to face a caliber of offense as this one and in a park like this one. Boston loves to hit lefthanded pitching at home as they come in hitting .284 at home vs southpaws, while scoring 6.6 rp/9 off of them in this park. Boston should get 4+ of their own in this one as well. This series has been a high scoring one to say the least. Dating back to 2001, the OVER has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, with each and every game hitting at least 9 runs. I look for that continue here as this one hits at least 11 runs like last night.

MINNESOTA -120 over Chicago Cubs: Hate to ask a bad team to win for me, but it just so happens that the Cubs are much worse that the Twins are right now. The Cubs are just 7-23 on the road this year, including 0-7 vs southpaws. The Cubs score just 3.5 rpg on the road, but vs lefties they hit just .203 and put up a mere 2.01 rp/9 off of them away from home. Not good numbers at all and they will be facing a tough leftiy today. Scott Diamond comes in with a 4-1 mark and a 1.86 ERA, while at home he has gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP. Jeff Samardzija has pitched well for the Cubs overall, with a 5-3 mark and a 3.13 ERA, but on the road he is 2-2 with 4.45 ERA and he has a high 1.67 WHIP away from home as well. Jeff puts too many runners on base away from home and that will cost hi here vs a Minnesota team that has really been playing well offensively of late. Since the return of Justin Morneau to the lineup the Twins have averaged 5.3 rpg (21 games), which compares to averaging under 3.8 rpg prior to his return. that's an extra run and a half. Both teams will likely end up in the basements of their divisions, but the Twins are the better team here, with the better starter and should make it 2 in a row over the Cubs here.

Arizona/ Oakland Over 9: I had this same play last night and I had an easy win in that one. I will look for the same tonight. Both of these offenses come into this one hitting pretty well as Oakland has averaged 6.4 rpg in their last 5 games, while Arizona has put up 25 runs in their last 3 games combined. Jarod Parker is in fine form with an 0.43 ERA in his last 3 starts, but 2 of those starts were at home and he does have a 4.30 ERA, with an average of 9 rpg scored in his road starts. Jarrod also has a 1.50 WHIP on the road this year, compared to his 1.21 WHIP overall. I know that just one bad road start has inflated his road numbers, but that one road start was in a NL Park (San Fran) and he allowed 6 ER's in just 2 innings, plus he is off of 105+ pitches in each of his last 2 starts meaning he may not go that long and that would mean turning the ball over to an A's pen that has a 4.37 ERA in it's last 10 games. Trevor Cahill has pitched very well on the road this year, but in this hitter friendly park he has a 5.16 ERA and he has allowed 4 ER's in 3 of his 4 home starts. Trevor has thrown 104+ pitches in each of his last 3 starts, so he may not be around much past the 6th in this one, and then he will turn the ball over to an Arizona pen that has a 4.34 ERA at home this year. The A's have allowed 4.1 rpg on the road, while Arizona has allowed 5.1 rpg at home. At worst we get a push here. LOL. Still I will call for around 12 runs in this one.

Jack Jones

Oakland A's +136

The Oakland A's are showing great value Saturday as a big underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have the edge on the mound today behind underrated Jarrod Parker.

Parker will be facing the team that drafted him in 2007, so he'll obviously be pumped up for this one. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in eight starts this year. He's in the midst of an 18-inning scoreless streak while going 1-0 with a 0.43 ERA over his last three starts.

The A's are 4-1 in Parker's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Trevor Cahill's last 4 home starts. Arizona is 3-11 in their last 14 vs. American League West opponents. Bet the A's Saturday.

Jeff Alexander

San Francisco Giants -105

The Rangers can't be trusted with Feldman on the mound. He's 0-4 with a 8.19 ERA in 5 starts, including 0-3 in his last 3 with an ERA of 12.65. He's also 0-2 on the road with an ERA of 19.50. San Francisco's Vogelsong is in much better form. He's 4-2 with an ERA of 2.38 in 10 starts with the Giants winning 7 of those. His ERA is an even more impressive 1.52 through 6 home starts. The Giants are 6-0 in Vogelsong's last 6 starts. The Rangers are 3-15 in the last 18 meetings overall and 1-11 in the last 12 meetings in San Francisco.