Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday March, 10

DUNKEL INDEX

Marshall at Memphis
The Thundering Herd look to build on their 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 7 to 12 1/2 points. Marshall is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by only 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+10)

Game 519-520: Marshall at Memphis (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 63.361; Memphis 72.026
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 8 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Memphis by 10; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+10); N/A

Game 521-522: NC State vs. North Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 65.426; North Carolina 75.776
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 10 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-8 1/2); N/A

Game 525-526: Massachusetts vs. St. Bonaventure (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 60.987; St. Bonaventure 64.529
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 3 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 2 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick St. Bonaventure (-2 1/2); N/A

Game 529-530: Florida vs. Kentucky (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 66.188; Kentucky 78.620
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 12 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 8 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-8 1/2); N/A

Game 533-534: Wisconsin vs. Michigan State (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 72.180; Michigan State 74.120
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 2; 126
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 4; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+4); N/A

Game 551-552: Vermont at Stony Brook (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 54.225; Stony Brook 58.087
Dunkel Line: Stony Brook by 4; 123
Vegas Line: Stony Brook by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Stony Brook (-3); N/A

Game 555-556: McNeese State vs. Lamar (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: McNeese State 50.793; Lamar 58.783
Dunkel Line: Lamar by 8; 131
Vegas Line: Lamar by 5; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Lamar (-5); N/A

Marc Lawrence

Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

Portland continues its East Coast road wing when they invade the nation's capitol to take on the Wizards Saturday evening while looking to avenge an embarrassing 124-109 loss to Washington as 15-point home chalk a month ago. Helping matters is the Wizards' putrid 5-16 SU and 6-25 ATS mark the last two seasons in games when playing off a win. With Washington fat and sassy off Wednesday's home upset win over the Lakers, look for the Blazers to improve to 6-2 SU and ATS in same season loss revengers here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Portland.

Rob Vinciletti

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Dallas Mavericks

Golden St applies to a negative system that plays against home favorites off a home loss vs an opponent off a road favored loss at -4 or less. Dallas is playing their 3rd straight road game and with them losing the first 2 , we note that teams off back to back losses playing 3 straight are 6-1 ats this season. Dallas has covered 8 of 11 as a dog and and has won 3 of 4 here in Golden State. The Warriors do not come out to play on Saturdays going 1-4 to the spread. Look for Dallas to get the cash.

Ben Burns

Canadiens @ Canucks
PICK: Under 5.5

I won with the Canucks 'under' in their last game, a 3-2 win over Winnipeg on Thursday. This one figures to also be fairly low-scoring.

While the Canucks have a tendency to play high-scoring games (37 goals in L5 meetings, "over" is 13-6-1 L20) when facing the Leafs, the opposite is often true when they face Canada's other "Original Six" team.

The "under" is 11-8-1 the last 20 meetings between the Canucks and Canadiens, 3-1 the last four. Montreal's lone visit to Vancouver last season saw five goals produced, a 3-2 "upset" win by the Canadiens last February.

Playing in front of more than 50 friends and family members, Montreal goalie Carey Price, a native of British Columbia, was the first star in that game.

Afterwards, Price was quoted as saying: "I put a lot of mental preparation into this one. I remember last year and not getting the opportunity to play before that and it really meant a lot to me coming in here. I think everyone in this locker room realized that and really battled for me."

After getting the "winning puck," Price went on to say: "I really wanted that puck. That was the only one I've wanted all year. I've watched the Canucks my whole life being from B.C., and getting an opportunity to play against them and actually win here is pretty special."

Price is likely to get the call again and I expect him to again be highly motivated to deliver a strong performance. Of course, the Canucks can typically rely on solid goaltending, regardless if its Luongo or Schneider between the pipes.

Including last season's game here, the Canadiens have seen the "under" go a lucrative 48-24 (2 out of every 3) the past few seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Don't be surprised if we see another low-scoring affair. Consider the Under 5.5 goals.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators
PICK: Ottawa Senators

Buffalo is 31-29-8 (14-18-1 on the road). Ottawa is 36-25-8 (18-13-3 at home). The last time these teams played, Ottawa beat the Sabres 3-2 in Buffalo on January 31st, 2011.

The Sens are rolling right now, 9-3-1 in their last 13. Their latest victory was a big 4-1 effort over the Rangers on Thursday.

Ben Bishop made 25 saves. Jason Spezza had an empty netter to seal the victory, and has nine-goals and 13-assists during his team's streak.

Ottawa is getting balanced scoring, which has led to 51-goals over its last 13-games.

“I think we’ve had a balanced attack all year long,” coach Paul MacLean said. “The rhythm of our offense has been pretty good where there’s someone starts to go down someone gets hot, so that rhythm of our offense over the course of the season has allowed our offense to be consistent and that’s the sign of a good team and a growing team.”

Buffalo has been hot as well, going 7-2-1 in its last ten; it's coming off a 3-1 setback to Boston on Thursday though.

A big blow for Buffalo backers tonight is the absence of 20-goal scorer Thomas Vaneck, who suffered an upper-body injury during the third-period against the Bruins.

Sorry about the cliche, but the best phrase to describe how well the Sens are playing right now would be: "firing on all cylinders". Team chemistry is crucial at this time of year, and Ottawa clearly has it in abundance right now. Bishop has been a pleasant surprise, and is gaining more confidence with each outing.

The Sabres have been overachieving, and a continued tough road schedule, coupled with the injuries they are dealing with will be just too much for this team to overcome this evening.

Lay the very reasonable price!

David Chan

Philadelphia Flyers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers

The 38-21-7 Philadelphia Flyers storm into Toronto to take on the 30-30-7 Maple Leafs.

Ilya Bryzgalov is set to square off against Jonas Gustavsson between the pipes.

This is the first game of a back to back for both teams; the Flyers are in New Jersey on Sunday, while the Leafs are at Washington.

Philadelphia is 4-1 SU the last five in this series, most recently a 4-3 win at home on February 9th.

The Flyers are coming off a commanding 5-0 win over Florida on Thursday; Bryzgalov had 28 saves to earn his second shutout in his last three outings.

Five different players scored goals: Scott Hartnell, Brayden Schenn, Matt Read, Eric Wellwood and Jaromir Jagr.

Bryzgalov has finally found his "groove", and is 7-2 with a 2.10 GAA while making ten-straight starts.

Philadelphia is now just two-points out of fourth-place Pittsburgh in the Eastern Conference.

The Maple Leafs on the other hand continue their spiral down the proverbial crapper and are coming off a 3-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Wednesday.

Once again they let a lead slip away, falling to 1-2 since Randy Carlyle took over as coach following Ron Wilson's firing.

Already down defenseman Joffrey Lupul and Colby Armstrong, Toronto also lost the services of winger Mike Brown and defenseman Cody Franson in that loss.

The Flyers are finding a way to win without Chris Pronger, as the young players are mixing well with the veterans; and certainly Bryzgalov's enormously improved play has been a big difference.

Toronto has long lost any chemistry it may have had at the beginning of the year, and I just can't see it mounting much pressure on Philadelphia tonight.

As a result, consider laying the short-price on this hot team!

Jimmy Boyd

Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Grizzlies, winners of 5 in a row and 9 of 10, are rolling, and they'll be very focused tonight as they look to avenge a 2-point loss to the Suns in the season's first meeting. There's nothing wrong with laying points on Memphis. The Grizzlies are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 games as a favorite, 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite. Revenge has also been a valid angle to play on Memphis. The Grizzlies are an impressive 27-12 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by an average of 3.2 points in this situation. Memphis has had 2 full days to rest and prepare for this revenge game, and I like their chances. We'll lay the number.

Jack Jones

Bobcats/Thunder UNDER 199.5

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Charlotte Bobcats and Oklahoma City Thunder. These teams should combine for less than 200 points by game's end.

Charlotte is 3-0 to the UNDER in their last three games overall. They combined for 157 points with New Jersey in a 83-74 loss to the Nets last night.

Oklahoma City is 5-2 to the UNDER in their last seven games overall. They combined for 186 points with Cleveland in a 90-96 home loss to the Cavaliers last night.

The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Bobcats last 14 road games. The UNDER is 24-6-2 in Bobcats last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 8-1 in Thunder last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Steve Janus

Miami Heat -9

The Indiana Pacers are getting a lot of love from the media after a great first half, but this team is no where near the Bulls or the Heat in the Eastern Conference. They put together a nice six game winning streak, but those wins came against the likes of New Jersey, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Golden State. They followed up the winning streak with a 20-point loss at Chicago and then lost by 5-points at home to Atlanta as a 7.5-point favorite.

They really don't match up well with Heat and it's shown in their first two games this season. Miami won 118-83 at home on Jan. 4 and 105-90 at Indiana on Feb. 14. Most of the Pacers offense is ran through perimeter players, which is what the Heat defense specializes against. Indiana doesn't have the post players that can take advantage of the Heat's lackluster interior defense.

The Heat will be motivated to get this win after watching the Bulls drop a game on Thursday. Miami trails Chicago by 1.5-games for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The 9-point spread might seem like a lot to lay, but the Heat should easily win this game by double-digits.

The Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.

Dave Cokin

Wisconsin vs Michigan State
Pick: Michigan State

Wisconsin was on fire from deep in their win over shorthanded Indiana, canning 13/26 treys. That's not happening against Michigan State. The Spartans had it ridiculously easy against Iowa and should be the fresher team here against a Badgers squad that could bounce. I'll give the points.

Jim Feist

Mavericks vs Warriors
Pick: Over

Think the young home team will run at the defending champs? This is a bad situational handicapping spot for the defending champs, playing their third game in 3 nights. They are an aging team that has a losing road record and now they face the young, uptempo Golden State Warriors. Dallas has had some defensive concerns against young teams, going over the total in back to back games against the Hornets (a win) and the Jazz (a loss). The Warriors are rested, with two full days off, and on a 2-0 run over the total, beating Washington with 120 points but losing to Memphis allowing 110 points. Look for a run and gun attack by the home team, Play the Mavericks/Warriors Over the total!

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

MEMPHIS -10 over Marshall: Memphis gets this game at home and they have crushed conference USA opponents on their home floor this year. Including their first 2 games of this Tourney Memphis has 9 Conf USA home wins and 7 of them have been by at least 18 points, while for the year they have outscored their Conf USA foes by 20.2 ppg at home when they win the game. Now that's domination. Marshall though was one of the teams that they did not crush at home as they won by just 7 points in that game and that may have them a bit more focused here as they know this team is dangerous. This is Marshall's 4th game in as many days and after a 4OT game a couple days ago and a solid upset vs Southern Miss yesterday this team may not have a lot left, especially at the pace that Memphis will set. The Tigers have played great defense at home this year, where they allow just 57.7 ppg on 35.85 shooting, while Marshall allows 68.4 ppg on 44.7% shooting on the road. The Herd does average 67.6 ppg on the road, but they don't shoot all that well away from home (42.4%). Memphis, on the other hand, scores 73.9 ppg on a very solid 48.5% shooting on their home floor this year. Memphis has all the edges in this game and playing at home makes them all the more stronger here. They should win this one by 15+ points.

2 UNIT PLAY

Michigan State -4 over Wisconsin: My pick to win the Big 10 Tourney is the Spartans and I'm not gonna back down from them here. Wisconsin had a great game yesterday, but the fact is that this team is still not a great scoring team and they are going up against a much tougher defensive team than they faced yesterday. State has allowed 70+ points in each of their last 3 games, but prior to that they had allowed just 51.8 ppg in their previous 7 games. Now that's playing some defense. Wisconsin will not shoot as good as they did yesterday, while Michigan State has more than enough offense to score on this team. Sparty also see a window to a number 1 seed now that Kansas lost and that should have them even more focused here. I look for a close game to be broken open midway through the 2nd half as Michigan State moves close to the Big 19 tourney title.

James Patrick Sports

Hornets vs. Timberwolves

All-Star Kevin Love and talented rookie Ricky Rubio could both be sidelined Saturday night when the Timberwolves try to hand the visiting New Orleans Hornets a fifth consecutive defeat. The Timberwolves are already without backup guard J.J. Barea, who could miss a second straight contest with a sprained left ankle. The Hornets (9-11) have still won eight of their last (10) visits to Minnesota and the away team has won the last three meetings in the series. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday NBA complimentary selection is on New Orleans Hornets in action in the Association.

Bryan Power

New Orleans @ Minnesota
PICK: New Orleans

Yes, it's the Hornets, but this is a generous number to grab against a banged up and weary T'wolves squad. Both teams played and lost last night. New Orleans fell in Denver 110-97 and now looks to conclude a four-game West Coast swing with at least one victory. Favored Minnesota lost at home to the Lakers last night, but the bigger story was the potential loss of PG Ricky Rubio for an extended period of time after he banged knees with Kobe Bryant. Kevin Love also did not play Friday due to back spasms. This is simply too many points for a Minnesota team that is just 2-6 ATS its last eight times being favored to lay. Overall, this year they are just 3-10 ATS as a home favorite. Since the start of last season, New Orleans is 17-4 ATS in the second of back to back road games, provided they were an underdog in the first game. Yesterday, I cashed the Hornets Over on this page. Today I'm saying to take the points.