Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 12,2011

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

As bad as Andrew Bogut and the Bucks have underachieved this season, there is one ray of light that shines in Milwaukee these dark winter days. No, its not the fact that spring is right around the corner. Nor is it that Wisconsin-Milwaukee stole the top seed in the Horizon League with a frenzied finish. Instead, it's the Bucks ability to make bucks for their backers in the role they will assume tonight. What radiates is Milwaukees record in Eastern Conference play against non-division foes where they are 43-20-1 ATS the last two years, including 27-6-1 ATS versus .520 or less opposition. That sets the table for tonights contest. With Philly checking in off a triple revenge win at home against Boston last night, it's time to break out the sunglasses and enjoy Milwaukees finest here. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Ben Burns

L.A. Lakers @ Dallas
PICK: Dallas -1

I successfully played "against" the Lakers on Thursday while also successfully playing "on" Dallas. This looks like another solid spot to "fade" the Lakers and to support the Mavericks.

Sure, this is a "big" game for LA. These teams could meet in the playoffs. The Lakers would like to bounce back from the Miami loss and to avenge an earlier loss here at Dallas.

That said, the Lakers will also be playing their fourth straight road game. They're off the "huge" game vs. the Heat AND they've got another really big showdown on deck, vs. Orlando on Sunday.

While most never expect the Lakers to lose consecutive games, it happens more often than many tend to realize. Note that the Lakers are 7-10 ATS off an "upset" loss and 12-16 ATS when off a game vs. an Eastern Conference team. They're also 5-9 ATS against teams from the Southwest and 11-13 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss.

The Mavs looked great on Thursday, as they destroyed the Knicks. They're now 21-10-1 ATS (21-11 SU) against teams with a winning record, including 8-2 ATS their last 10. They're also 13-7-1 ATS (17-4 SU) after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. Additionally, they're 11-4-1 ATS (14-2 SU) when coming off a double-digit victory.

Just as its a big game for LA, its also an important one for Dallas. Coach Rick Carlisle was quoted as saying: "It's the defending champs coming in your building, so it’s a big deal. To try and downplay it wouldn't be being honest. It's an important game..."

The Mavs have beaten the Lakers twice in a row. I feel they've got an excellent shot at doing it again. With the pointspread essentially a "non-factor, consider Dallas.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Lakers +1

Motivated by a loss at Miami last game and a loss to Dallas in the season's first meeting, expect the Lakers to find a way tonight. L.A. should actually be the fresher team, as this will be Dallas' 5th game in 7 days. Going to the numbers we find that plays against home favorites playing their 5th game in 7 days, provided they have won between 60-75% of their games on the season, are an impressive 111-67 ATS since 1996. The Lakers have been terrific all season on the road, where they are 24-12. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Lakers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus the Western Conference. Specific to this matchup, we find that the underdog is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and the road team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. L.A. avenged an earlier loss to San Antonio on this road trip to remind everyone that it is still the two-time defending champs. Expect the Lakers to send out another reminder tonight.

Ray Monohan

Vancouver Canucks vs. Calgary Flames
Play: Vancouver Canucks

Any time you can get the No.1 team in the NHL at a bargain basement price something smells fishy doesn't it? Nah. The books are inflating the Flames value here based on their home record, that's it. Calgary has won 10 of its last 14 games at the Saddledome. Calgary is a scrappy team and they will play hard for 60 minutes on Saturday night, plus Kiprusoff has posted an 8-1-1 mark with 3 shutouts during his last 11 starts. Impressive but not daunting by any means. Vancouver will look to complete a perfect 5-game road trip. The Canucks have excelled away from Van-City, with a 17-4-2 mark in their last 23 road contests, they will not be intimidated. Roberto Luongo (31-13-7, 2.22 goals-against average) will be in net for Vancouver after having the San Jose game off on Thursday night. The Canucks have won three of the 4 meetings between the Northwest division rivals. Trends I like for this one include, the Canucks are 4-0 in their last 4 road games, are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Flames are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Canucks are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Detroit Pistons +9.5

Odds makers are asking a little too much of the Nuggets tonight, considering Detroit has either won or lost by 9 points or less in 9 straight meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that the Pistons are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings with the Nuggets and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Denver. The Pistons are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Take the points.

Jim Feist

LA Clippers at Wizards
Pick: LA Clippers

The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games heading into Friday night's contest, coming off that impressive upset at Boston as a +10 dog. This is a big frontcourt with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, and they face a small New Jersey frontcourt. Newcomer point guard Mo Williams has added a reliable long range threat in the backcourt, so this young, hungry team has some talent. The Clippers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. They match up well against a weak Washington team and the Wizards are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Clippers are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the LA Clippers.

EZWINNERS

Miami Heat -7.5

The Heat came up with a big win against the Lakers in their last game to break their five game losing streak and I look for them to keep rolling in this game. This would normally be a let down spot, but I don't expect the Heat to be flat as they are seeking revenge for a loss against the Grizzlies earlier this season. Miami had a three-game win streak snapped with a 97-95 loss to Memphis in the last meeting on Rudy Gay's buzzer-beating jumper. Gay won't be around for the rematch due to a shoulder injury, but D Wade will be after missing that last meeting with an injured left wrist. Wade has averaged 31 points in his last three home match ups against the Grizzlies. Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

Lakers vs. Mavericks

The World Champion Lakers are (12-3) ATS in their last (15) Saturday games and are fresh off a loss at Miami in a game the referees gift wrapped for the Heat. This series has gone the way of the Road team at a (9-3-1) ATS in the last (13) meetings. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday NBA complimentary selection is Los Angeles Lakers.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +117 over MONTREAL

The Canadiens are still likely suffering a hangover from the “hit heard round the world” in which Tom Pacioritty was sent into another dimension. All the media wants to talk about is that and it has really taken the focus away from the game. That devastating hit has had an impact on everyone in the Canadiens locker room, as a teammate suffered a lot more than an injury. This is a career threatening injury but when he was being whisked away on a stretcher the thoughts were much worse. Let’s also not forget that Paciorrity is a very decent player too. In order for the Habs to win they have to be at their best. They have to outwork the opposition and they need breaks because rarely do they win on talent. They also need outstanding goaltending from Carey Price to win and when you add all those things up it equates to a very beatable hockey team. The Penguins are so tough. Here’s a team that was bitten hard by the injury bug yet they refused to go down. They’ve picked up points in five straight and that includes wins over Boston and the red-hot Sabres, not to mention taking three out of a possible four point in Toronto over the then very warm Maple Leafs. The Pens are slowly but surely returning to health and with the exception of Crosby and Malkin just about every other key member is back. The Pens stepped up big time when adversity struck and that has built a team with strong character that will serve them well for a long time. Pens plus anything against this fragile Habs club has to be considered a good wager. Play: Pittsburgh +117 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +210 over NEW JERSEY

Regardless of the outcome here, the Islanders are way too overpriced to pass on. They’re coming off a spirited effort over the Bruins last night in which they badly outplayed them for 60 minutes and got a deserving 4-2 win. The Islanders have picked up points in six straight games now and that includes a game with the Devils six days ago in which they lost 3-2 in OT. Over their last five games the Islanders have scored four goals or more in four of those five contests. All of a sudden the Islanders are back in the playoff race. If the Islanders win tonight, the Rangers lose tonight (they’re in San Jose) and the Isles beat the Rangers on Tuesday, the Isles will be six points out of a playoff spot. The Devils are hot and that’s why they’re such a big favorite but it’s not warranted by this much. They’re still struggling to score goals and in fact, have scored two or less in six of eight. That makes them a huge risk laying 2-1 and in terms of value here the Islanders offer up plenty. This tag is simply ludicrous. Play: N.Y. Islanders +210 (Risking 2 units).

Tom Freese

Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Philadelphia 76ers

Milwaukee is 25-38 straight up this year. The Bucks are 5-13-1 ATS their last 19 games as favorites of 0.5 to 4.5 points. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS when playing with two days of rest. Milwaukee is 2-6 ATS off an ATS win. The Bucks are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 Saturday games. Philadelphia is 34-31 straight up this year. The Sixers are 8-3 ATS their last 11 road games and they are 25-10 ATS their 35 games vs. a team with losing record. The Sixers are 36-17 ATS their last 53 games overall and they are 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 meetings with the Bucks.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Memphis Grizzlies at Miami Heat
Play on: Memphis Grizzlies

Think the Heat are bound to start cashing again now that they've beaten the Lakers? Not so fast, my friend. Memphis is 19-6 ATS as a road underdog this year and even more impressive is the fact that the Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite. Miami is just 10-20 ATS in the home favorite role. Take the points.

Tony Karpinski

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -2

Take the Bulls over the Jazz, by 9-15 points. The Jazz have struggled terribly on the road. The Bulls, at home are exceptional, and they win their games rather handily. Utah’s Paul Milsap and Al Jefferson are tough covers, but no one will keep Derrick rose in check in this game. Chicago won the last meeting by 5, and that was when Utah had Deron Williams. This Utah team is not even a playoff bound team and the Bulls have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA and roll in this game soundly.

Larry Ness

Virginia Tech @ Duke
PICK: Duke -7.5

With freshman Kyrie Irving (17.4-3.8-5.7), the Blue Devils were the best team in the nation. However, the freshman suffered a toe injury in Duke’s December 4 win over butler (defending champs opened 8-0) and he’s not expected back. However, even without him, the Blue Devils ain’t bad. Nolan Smith (21.1-4.7-5.1) will challenge for player-of-the-year honors and is now joined by Curry (9.4) in the starting backcourt. Dawkins (8.0) is the first off the bench. Up front, last year’s MVP of the Final 4, the 6-8 Singler (17.5-6.7), is a near-perfect player while the Plumlee brothers join him in the starting lineup. Mason averages 7.3 & 8.8 with Miles getting 4.4 & 4.7. First off the bench up front is the 6-11 Kelly (6.6-3.9). However, here is the rub. Nolan Smith may not play on Saturday. The ACC’s player of the year hurt the second toe on his left foot on a non-contact play in the second half of Friday's 87-71 victory over Maryland. "We're going to try to make a long run, with or without him," Krzyzewski said. "If he can't play (Saturday) -- and I'm not saying he won't play, because I'll find out later -- but if he can't, or we're risking something and we have to keep him out, we'll probably have until Friday if we go to Charlotte to get him with the right type of shoe and stuff like that. "To make a run in the NCAA, you need your players," Krzyzewski continued. "There's no question. Nolan has been a player of the year in our conference, so it's not just losing a player. It's losing an outstanding player, if we don't have him." Va Tech has suffered many a ‘nightmare’ on Selection Sunday in recent years but the Hokies have beaten Ga Tech (59-43) and Fla St (52-51) the last two days, giving them a 21-10 mark. Considering the Hokies beat then-No. 1 Duke 64-60 back on Feb 26 in Blacksburg, Seth Greenberg’s team should be a ‘lock’ in this one. His team also may be ‘out of gas,’ as Va Tech used just six players in Friday’s win which was only secured when Florida State's Derwin Kitchen’s buzzer-beater was waved off by officials following a replay review. Delaney (18.3-3.5-4.1) and Green (11.3) are an excellent backcourt duo plus 6-7 senior Allen (13.7-10.0) has been a stud since his freshman year. However, the Hokies, even if Smith doesn’t play or is limited, still can’t match Duke’s talent. "I have full confidence and the team has full confidence in the guys on the team," Singler said. "So when (Dawkins) came in and Seth was at the point, I felt comfortable and the team felt comfortable." Singler had 29 points vs Maryland while the Plumlee brothers combined for 20 points AND 20 rebounds (Kelly had 11 points off the bench). In the backcourt, Curry and Dawkins combined for 20 points. The Hokies have NEVER made the ACC final since joining the conference for the 2004-05 season. Why start here? Smith or no Smith, the Blue Devils roll.

Matt Fargo

Michigan State @ Penn State
PICK: Michigan State -2.5

Kudos to Michigan St. which punched its ticket into the Big Dance with a surprisingly easy victory over Purdue in the Big Ten Quarterfinals. The Spartans were on the bubble following a regular season finale loss against Michigan but another quality win pushed them over the top and at this point, they could be a team that peaks at the right time which has been the case for a lot of Michigan St. teams in the recent past. The close victory over Iowa in the first round is now a thing of the past.

Penn St. is coming off an equally big win over Wisconsin last night as it pushes a step closer to an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. The Nittany Lions were far from good however as the Badgers just happened to play worse. Penn St. scored 22 points in the final 33 minutes last night and was still able to pull out the victory in what was one of the ugliest games of the season. Penn St. will no doubt play better today but it also will not be facing an opponent that will play as equally as bad.

The Spartans defense has been the key to what little success there has been of late. In the eight games prior to Friday, Michigan St. had allowed just 40.6 percent shooting including 30.6 percent from behind the arc. Against the Boilermakers, the Spartans allowed just 37.3 percent shooting including 18.8 percent from three-point land and while some will chalk that up to a bad Purdue performance, it is more a case of consistency by Michigan St. and that defense continue to shine.

Penn St. and Michigan St. split their two regular season meetings with both teams winning on their home floor. The Spartans blew out Penn St. in the most recent meeting and that loss has been more of the norm for the Nittany Lions. Prior to the Friday upset, their most recent wins have come against Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern (twice) and Minnesota (twice) which is a weak résumé. The Nittany Lions are on a solid ATS run but they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing fewer than 50 points. 3* (535) Michigan St. Spartans