Tom Stryker
Michigan @ Ohio State
PICK: Ohio State -10.5
After barely escaping Northwestern on Friday, No. 1 seed Ohio State will look to crank things up a notch against rival Michigan on Saturday afternoon.
The Wolverines will give it their best shot to keep this one close too. UM checks in on a 10-1 ATS run and has quietly snarled straight up wins over Minnesota, Michigan State and Illinois in its last three games. Respect is given to that performance but it won't be enough to pull me off Ohio State.
Technically speaking, this is a tough spot for the Maize and Blue. According to my college basketball database, conference tournament underdogs in the semifinal round are a dismal 18-35-1 ATS provided they enter off a 3-0 SU and ATS run or better and they take the floor with revenge of any kind. If our pup is matched up agaiinst an opponent that scoots in off an ATS loss, this system bottoms out at 1-13-1 ATS!
When matched up against an opponent coming off two or more SU and ATS victories, the Buckeyes have been an outstanding investment notching a powerful 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS record including a sensational 18-2 ATS in this set priced as an underdog or a favorite of -11' or less.
OSU came out sluggish against the Wildcats yesterday. Fortunate to be here and with the rust knocked off, the Buckeyes will bring their A-Game this afternoon and cruise into Sunday's final. Take Ohio State.
Craig Trapp
San Diego St vs. Brigham Young
Play: San Diego St -2
BYU has struggled since losing Davies and tonight it costs them a championship. Davies was integral in both of the head to head wins this season and his rebounding and length can't be replaced by BYU. SDS is maybe the deepest team in CBB and today you will see that depth wear down BYU as SDS wins by 7.
Tony George
Connecticut vs. Louisville
Play: Connecticut +2
I do not like teams that rely on the 3 point shot in championship games on nuetral sites, you live and die by it, I like Ocomplete teams with length and talent across the board in championship games like this, as well as depth. U Conn deeply experienced and well coached, and they have this spot as a slight dog, I like them to beat the Cards today. U Conn also keeps their poise in tight games and have won their fair share of them, even in OT. U Conn DOUBLE REVENGE and tough to beat a team like U Conn 3 times in a season, they find a way to win gents.
Charlie Scott
Clemson vs. North Carolina
Play: Over 131
When these 2 teams met in the regular season the oddsmaker set the total at 139 for both games. 131 is a normal total for Clemson, However 131 is the lowest total of the season for North Carolina. PLAY OVER !
Vanderbilt vs. Florida
Play: Under 140
These 2 teams played in a high scoring game last week, expect the opposite in scoring Today. This is Vandy's third game in 3 days, expect Florida to set the pace (Slow).
Jack Jones
Houston Rockets +2
The Houston Rockets catch the San Antonio Spurs in a tough spot tonight. San Antonio will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their second of a back-to-back. The Spurs were able to squeak by Detroit and Sacramento at home, but they won't be so fortunate tonight. The Houston Rockets come into this game on 3 days' rest so they are clearly going to be the fresher team. The home team has won four straight in this series and I fully expect the Rockets to defend their home court tonight.
The Rockets are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Houston is 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The odds have been catching up to the Spurs of late as San Antonio is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Rockets are an offensive juggernaut this season, especially over the past month. Houston has scored 102 or more points in 13 of their last 14 games overall. They should not be an underdog at home considering how well they are playing and with the rest factor hugely in their favor. Bet Houston Saturday.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago Bulls -10
The Utah Jazz are reeling right now and have no chance of keeping this game close against the surging Chicago Bulls. The Bulls can grab a share of the Eastern Conference lead with a win over the Jazz on Saturday night. Not since Jordan and Pippen led the Bulls to their last title in 1998 has there been this much excitement in Chicago. The Bulls pulled within one-half game of conference-leading Boston after a 94-76 win over Atlanta on Friday, their fourth straight win overall and 10th in a row at home. The Jazz have dropped 10 of their last 13, including a 122-101 loss at Minnesota on Friday. It was the third-most points allowed this season by Utah, which gave up a season-worst 131 against New York on Monday. In the last seven games, the Jazz have allowed 111.3 points per game while allowing opponents to shoot 50.4 percent from 3-point range. Chicago has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. The Bulls are 28-4 at home this year, winning by 10.0 points/game. The Jazz are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Utah is 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games overall. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take Chicago and lay the points.
Freddy Wills
Harvard vs. Princeton
Play: Harvard -2½
These two teams split the season series, but Harvard seemed like the better team dominating at home and nearly beating Princeton on the road. Overall we will see a close game I believe but I believe Harvard is the better team and I look for them to pull out a victory.
Rob Vinciletti
Akron vs. Kent State
Play: Akron +1½
Akron has won 18 of 21 with 1 or less day of rest and 15 of 20 when the posted total is 130 to 140. They are 10-1 in tournament games and have won all 3 times this season with road loss revenge. In their last 9 games vs winning teams they are 7-2. Kent is under 500 this season vs winning teams. These two are evenly matched splitting the season series with each team winning on their home court. The line opened as a pick with Kent now bet up to a 1.5 point favorite. We will back Akron here in a very winnable game for them.
Joel Tyson
Kentucky vs. ALABAMA - at Atlanta, GA
Your comp play for Saturday will be to back Alabama to erase Kentucky in the SEC semifinals.
The Tide is "feeling it" right now, as they have captured 6 of their last 8 straight up, and are on a 9-3 spread run their last dozen games.
Alabama is also a positive 16-5 against the spread their last 21 in conference play, and that includes a January home upset win over Kentucky by a basket as the 4-point dog.
Kentucky is riding a 4-game winning streak, but they have not been able to cash in at the ticket window for their backers, as John Calipari's squad is on a 3-8-1 spread slide their last dozen - all in SEC play!
Alabama is still hearing overtures that they are a "bubble team" come selection Sunday. No more they are not!
Take the Tide.
3♦ ALABAMA
Michael Cannon
Vanderbilt vs. Florida (-3), at Atlanta, GA
Take Florida as the small chalk against Vanderbilt in the semifinal round of the SEC tournament.
The Gators beat the Commodores in both meetings this year and have won 17 of the last 22 matchups. Florida has also won nine of its last 10 overall after yesterday’s 11-point win over Tennessee.
Florida has great balance offensively. All five starters scored in double digits in yesterday’s win and center Vernon Macklin is so tough to defend inside that it opens things up on the perimeter for the other Gators.
I don’t think Vandy has what it takes to stay close here.
Lay the points with Florida for the win and cover.
3♦ FLORIDA
Karl Garrett
Clemson vs. NORTH CAROLINA - at Greensboro, NC
On to you free play for Saturday, and the thinking is that North Carolina received their "wake up" call in their come-from-behind win over Miami-Florida on Friday, but word has it that the Tar Heels real goal is to cut down the nets in early April, and not this Sunday.
Oh sure, you can count the outright Tigers wins in this series on your thumb over the last decade or so, but Clemson looked very sharp in their blasting of Boston College yesterday afternoon, and they did play UNC quite close in the teams meeting at Clemson, as North Carolina escaped with a basket win.
I have a feeling the Tigers stay inside of this impost, as the Tar Heels are only 3-4 against the spread their last 7 games - all as the favorite.
Clemson has covered the last 3 times they have been installed as the underdog, and they cover here.
Take the points!
2♦ CLEMSON
Derek Mancini
Michigan vs. Ohio State at Indianapolis, IN
Small play here on the Wolverines, as they battle the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Tournament Seminfinals. Few teams have shown the improvement and growth we've seen from Michigan as the season has progressed. A mid-season slump that saw them lose 6 straight games from January 5th to the 22nd served as a perfect teaching ground, and the Wolverines have responded in kind. Since then they've won at Michigan State, at Penn State, vs. Northwestern, almost upset Wisconsin, and have won 3 straight coming into this game.
True, Michigan is undersized upfront, and will have trouble containing Sullinger, but before you jump on the OSU bandwagon, consider how well the Wolverines have played the Buckeyes in two losses this season. Both were single-digit losses in which Michigan covered, and both saw Morris and Hardaway Jr. step up big-time. With Jordan Morgan having an awful game vs Illinois, I'm expecting a bounce back effort here from Michigan's best frontline player. Remember the Wolverined have managed to force Sullinger into an average of 5 turnovers per game in their two meetings this season.
Finally, consider what's at stake for the Wolverines. Sure, their win over Illinois was a big boost to their resume, but a strong effort here will go a long way. The Buckeyes meanwhile are sitting pretty and could be vulnerable against a highly motivated Michigan squad. Long story short, if you're still underestimating this Michigan team, its because you haven't been watching them lately.
1♦ MICHIGAN
Chuck O'Brien
Michigan vs. Ohio State, at Indianapolis
Now let’s move on to your complimentary college basketball selection, and note that I’m on a 10-4 roll with college hoops free plays. Today, take the points with Michigan against Ohio State in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament.
The Wolverines probably punched their Big Dance ticket with Friday’s impressive come-from-behind 60-55 upset win over Illinois, outscoring the Illini 37-21 in the second half. Michigan has now won three in a row and seven of its last nine, and the only two losses over this stretch were by a total of three points to Wisconsin at home (a game that ended on a bank-shot, buzzer-beating three-pointer) and Illinois on the road (54-52).
More impressively, with yesterday’s win as a three-point underdog, Michigan is now 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games, including eight consecutive spread-covers as an underdog. The Wolverines also cashed in both meetings with Ohio State this year, first nearly handing the Buckeyes their first loss of the season (Michigan fell 68-64 as an 11-point home pup), then dropping a 62-53 decision in Columbus three weeks later as a 16-point underdog.
As you can see by those two scores, Michigan’s deliberate pace of play gave the Buckeyes some problems – just like Northwestern’s similar style frustrated Ohio State yesterday (OSU barely escaped in overtime).
Last year in the Big Ten tournament, the Buckeyes needed a 45-foot buzzer-beating prayer from Evan Turner to escape with a 69-68 victory over Michigan, but the Wolverines cashed easily as a nine-point underdog. In fact, going back to the start of last season, Michigan is on a 5-0 ATS run in this rivalry. At the same time, Ohio State has failed to cash in six of its last eight postseason tournament games.
4♦ MICHIGAN
Michael Cannon
Michigan (+10') vs. Ohio State, at Indianapolis, IN
The Wolverines are playing so well for coach John Beilein and have been for some time now. They are finally understanding his system and know what he wants out of them on both ends of the floor.
Michigan has won nine of its last 12 games overall.
Ohio State was nearly upset yesterday by Northwestern, but found a way to pull it out in overtime. I personally think the Buckeyes are overrated and shouldn’t be laying this kind of number against an up-and-coming team like Michigan.
The Wolverines did lose both regular season games to Ohio State, but both were by single digits.
I like Michigan to stay within the number here.
Take the points with the Wolverines.
3♦ MICHIGAN
Bobby Maxwell
UConn vs. Louisville, at New York City
For my comp selection, UConn is ready to make history today and win five straight nights to capture the Big East tourney championship. This team has made all the right moves the last four nights, led by their superstar Kemba Walker. I’m not going against the red-hot team tonight. Play the Huskies.
Walker had 33 points and 12 rebounds on Friday night in a 76-72 overtime victory over Syracuse. The Huskies show great resiliency by blowing a six-point lead in the final 40 seconds and yet still responding with a big overtime period.
Louisville needed overtime to beat Notre Dame in the semifinals on Friday night, winning 83-77. The Irish didn’t play very well and yet Louisville still needed OT to secure the victory.
Walker is just six points away from recording the highest-scoring conference tourney ever. He has scored 26, 28, 24, and 33 points to this point. The Huskies come into tonight’s championship game on ATS runs of 7-0 on a neutral court and 22-8 after a straight-up win.
I’ll go ahead and play the Huskies tonight. UConn is on the verge of history and you know Walker and his mates will get it done one last time to secure the Big East tourney crown. Go with UConn.
4♦ UCONN
Stephen Nover
Memphis (+7') at MIAMI
I won my Friday NBA free selection with underdog Philadelphia upsetting Boston. I like Memphis to cover at Miami for my Saturday comp play.
The Grizzlies are one of the great 'dog teams going 20-5-1 ATS the last 26 times they've received points.
Miami is in a sandwich spot. The Heat finally won a big game defeating the Lakers at home on Thursday. Next up for Miami is a marquee home matchup on Monday against San Antonio, the team with the best record in the NBA.
The Heat are going through too many problems - matchup-wise and emotionally - to be laying this high of a number against a viable Western Conference playoff contender. Miami has won just two of its last eight games going 1-7 ATS.
The Heat are weak in the middle leaving them open inside to Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Miami hasn't been getting good bench play either.
Memphis has covered eight of its last 11 games. The Grizzlies have been idle since Wednesday. So a strong effort should be forthcoming.
1♦ MEMPHIS
Karl Garrett
Memphis (+7') at MIAMI
NBA comp play for Saturday, and just because Miami was able to get a rather large monkey off their backs on Thursday does not mean they are in the clear just yet.
Memphis is capable of giving another panic-attack to the South Beach faithful, as the Grizzlies have already edged the Heat in this season's first meeting in Memphis back in November and have won 5 of the last 7 overall meetings against the Heat.
The Grizzlies have proven their mettle on the road too, as Memphis is on a 19-7 spread run their last 26 when carry the suitcase.
As for Miami, I am sure you are well aware that their win over the Lakers snapped a season-high 5 game slide. The Heat is still just 3-9 against the spread their last 12 games.
Miami does have a big Sunday home showdown with the best-of-the-west San Antonio Spurs, so look for the Grizzlies to find back-door room this Saturday afternoon and stay inside of the generous spot.
3♦ MEMPHIS
Derek Mancini
Portland (+1) at ATLANTA
No way Atlanta can lose five straight, epsecially now that they're back at Philips Arena, right? WRONG! First things first, this line is begging you to play the Hawks, which in and of itself doesn't feel right. Portland is playing well, but to offer us the Hawks in almost a pick'em situation, at home, and desperate for a win seems to good to be true.
Its important to note that the Blazers already had their letdown - last night at Charlotte - following their big win at Miami. In other words, I expect they'll re-group here and we'll see a lot of the same instensity we saw in Orlando and the aformentioned Miami game.
How did Portland win those big road games? The same way they're going to win tonight - defense. Trail Blazers are allowing just 89 ppg over their L5 games, and that's bad news for an Atlanta offense that's struggling mightily right now. The Hawks are averaging just 85 ppg over the same 5-game span, and that includes just 79 point against a very shaky Knicks defense, and 76 points in their last one at Chicago. This is an offense that cannot be trusted at the moment, and it'll show tonight.
Bottom line, take the Trail Blazers to add to the Hawks misery tonight. The Hawks are in one of their mental tailspins right now, and facing a red-hot defense like that of Portland isn't going to help. Atlanta lacks the offensive discpline to beat this Blazers team. Take Portland plus the points over Atlanta Saturday.
3♦ PORTLAND
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers (+1) at DALLAS
For my comp selection, we all saw what happened to the Lakers at the end of the Miami game on Thursday night. They went ice cold and go outscored 6-0 to lose 94-88. What happened an hour after the game was amazing too when superstar Kobe Bryant came back on the court and had a personal shoot-around for more than an hour. Shows you how much he works, shows his team how much they need to work and shows me they are the bet tonight to get back on the winning track at Dallas.
The loss snapped the Lakers’ eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS). But they have won seven of the last 10 against Dallas, even though they lost back on Jan. 19, 109-100 as three-point favorites in Dallas. In this series, the underdog has cashed in eight of the last 12 meetings and the road team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13.
Los Angeles come into this one on several positive ATS surges, including 12-3 on Saturdays, 7-0 against the Western Conference, 5-1 on the road and 9-2 on the road against teams with winning home records. Dallas is on ATS skids of 1-4 overall and 1-4 as a favorite.
The Lakers let the Mavs shoot 55 percent from the floor in their first meeting of the year. That won’t happen tonight. This is a big game for Los Angeles to draw within a half-game of the Mavs for the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference. Play the Lakers tonight.
2♦ L.A. LAKERS
Craig Davis
LA Lakers at DALLAS (-1)
As for Saturday's free pick, I'll play Dallas over the LA Lakers.
I'm still scratching my head as to how the Mavs dropped a 93-92 decision at New Orleans the other night despite holding a 92-85 lead with around a minute to go. Of course I gave you the Hornets as a comp winners that night, too.
Dallas has the distinct advantage of beating the Lakers in their last two visits to the American Arilines Center and I see no reason why it can't happen again tonight.
Vegas has to be absolutely confused when they posted this line.
On one hand you have a Dallas team that wins a ton at home, has beaten the Lakers in the last two meetings there and is playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulders. The Mavs have dropped only 3 of their last 22 games, ALL BY ONE POINT.
They lost at Denver (despite having a 10-point lead with under two minutes to go) on a last-second shot from Aaron Afflalo. They lost to the Grizzlies on a last-second shot by Zach Randolph. And last but not least, they lost at New Orleans on three consecutive free throws by Jarrett Jack. Three losses by three points.
The Lakers, on the other hand, are impossible to figure out. They struggle heading into the All Star break, even losing to Cleveland, but then return with an eight-game winning streak before losing at Miami on Thursday by six. Granted, it was a near must-win situation for Miami, but you get my point.
This game means as much for Dallas as it does the Lakers and I expect it to go down to the wire. But in the end, the Mavs will get a much-needed home win, 100-94.
4♦ DALLAS
Scott Delaney
Detroit at DENVER (-8')
Right here I have a complimentary NBA play on the Nuggets, who should be able to pounce over a weary Pistons team that played last night in Oklahoma City and was kicked around by the Thunder.
Now, one night after losing by 10 to Oklahoma City, the Pistons are going to have problems in the Mile High City against a rested Nuggets squad that had the chance to take last night off after three road games.
Denver, which has won seven of its last nine games, have won five straight inside the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA with 107.4 points per game, and that'll spell trouble for the Pistons, who have been battling off-court distractions as well as their losing ways.
They rank last in defensive field goal percentage, so I suspect the Nuggets will get good looks all night, and run this one up before taking off for four more road games.
Lay the points.
3♦ DENVER
SPORTS WAGERS
Louisville –3 +100 over Connecticut
Each round of the tournament offers up different challenges. Thus far the Huskies have answered them all and then some. Five games in five days is another challenge but UConn is on a huge roll and can’t wait to get back on the floor to finish this thing off. Then there’s Kemba Walker. This guy refuses to lose. Every time the Huskies appear to be faltering, Kemba comes up with something spectacular. All UConn has done has whacked DePaul, then beat Georgetown, Pitt and Syracuse. Syracuse had a miracle comeback last night to send the game into OT and momentum was completely on their side. The Huskies dug down once again and made every play on both ends of the floor when it counted most. Having said that, the Orange made a lot more easy baskets than the Huskies did and that’s an area that Louisville will focus on. They also have much more balanced scoring than UConn, as any one of six guys can get hot and hurt you. The Huskies had a tough time finding their legs last night and they even had to play extra time. They could not hit a shot from beyond the arc and surely things are not going to be easier here. The Cardinals are an outstanding rebounding team and they’re very likely going to get plenty of second chances. So, kudos to UConn for an outstanding run but it ends here because the chances of Louisville allowing one guy to beat them are remote. Play: Louisville –3 +100 (Risking 2 units).
Info Plays
3* Rockets +1.5
Reasons why Houston will cover:
1) The Rockets come in well rested, having not played since Tuesday, while the Spurs are playing their third game in the last four days, and are on the second of a back-to-back.
2) Houston also comes in off a loss, which has been a great time to jump on the Rockets, as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
3) San Antonio won last night at home against the Kings, but are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Teddy Covers
Boise State @ Utah State
PICK: Utah State -6
This might be the best team that Stew Morrell has put together during his 13 year tenure at Utah State; every bit as good as the 30 win team from two years ago that took Marquette to the wire in the Big Dance. Boise State has shown no ability to match up with the Aggies whatsoever, in any recent meeting.
The results don’t lie. This year’s final scores were 77-49 and 68-59, Utah State winning and covering both at home and on the road against Boise. Last year, we saw Utah State win two of the three meetings by 22 points or more, and still won by five on the road at Boise.
The commonality in both of those wins is two-fold. First, Boise has shown no ability to shut down the Aggies precise offense. Utah State has gotten a whole host of backdoor cut layups against this team, shooting well over 50 percent from the floor in the last five meetings between these two teams, including both meetings this year.
Secondly, Utah State is simply bigger and stronger in the paint, winning the battle of the boards by margin in every one of those five wins over the Broncos in the last two seasons. The Aggies have a +15 rebounding margin in the two previous meetings this year, a factor that should help them pull away from Boise tonight and win this game by margin. 2* Take Utah State