SPORTS ADVISORS
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ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at Atlantic City, N.J.)
Rhode Island (22-8, 11-15-1 ATS) vs. (17) Temple (27-5, 21-11 ATS)
Rhode Island has cruised into the A-10 semifinals with a pair of first-round blowout wins. On Tuesday, the Rams ripped St. Joe’s 87-76, but failed to cover as a 14-point favorite in a game played in their home gym. They returned to the court Friday and easily dispatched Saint Louis 63-47, cashing as a 3½-point chalk. Rhode Island started the season 19-3, but closed on a 2-5 SU and 2-6 ATS slump prior to posting consecutive victories in the conference tourney.
The Owls, who got a first-round bye after earning a share of the regular-season conference title and the No. 1 seed, blasted St. Bonaventure 69-51 as a 10½-point chalk on Friday to run their SU winning streak to eight in a row and their ATS winning streak to five in a row. Going back further, Temple has won 16 of its last 18, which encompasses a 15-2 Atlantic 10 record. It has also cashed in nine of its last 11.
Temple swept the season series from the Rams and has won the last three meetings in a row (SU and ATS). On Jan. 10, the Owls traveled to Rhode Island and stole a 68-64 overtime victory as a two-point underdog, then a month later in Philadelphia, they scored an easy 78-56 rout as a four-point home chalk. Temple is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings; the favorite has cashed in five of the last six; and the SU winner has covered the number in each of the last 13 series clashes.
Despite getting the money against Saint Louis on Friday, Rhode Island remains on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 16-33-3 in conference play, 1-6-1 on Saturday and 3-7 against winning teams. Conversely, Temple’s current 5-0 ATS run is aided by additional positive pointspread surges of 39-14-2 in conference, 38-17-1 versus winning teams and 7-1 at neutral sites.
Both teams are 3-0-1 “over” in their last four Saturday affairs. From there, though, the Rams carry “under” trends of 16-7 in league play, 5-0 at neutral sites and 3-0-1 versus winning teams, while Temple is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 4-0 at neutral sites and 3-0-1 against winning teams. Finally, these teams had played three straight “unders” before last month’s meeting at Temple landed right on the 134-point posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and UNDER
Richmond (25-7, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. (24) Xavier (24-7, 20-10 ATS)
Richmond moved on to the semifinals, but not before surviving a scare against UMass on Friday, holding on for a 77-72 victory but coming up short as a 10-point favorite. The Spiders built a 17-point lead against UMass that twice was whittled down to four points, but they hit key free throws down the stretch to seal their third win in a row and their 11th in their last 12 games. Richmond’s last five games have been decided by 4, 2, 4, 5 and 5 points, with two going into overtime.
The Musketeers had to stage a furious rally to get past Dayton last night, overcoming a 15-point deficit with 10 minutes left to not only steal a 78-73 victory, but cover as a 3½-point favorite. Xavier has won eight in a row (6-2 ATS) and 16 of 18 overall. The Musketeers have also scored five straight wins away from home, including a 12-point non-conference victory at Florida last month.
Richmond’s only loss since Jan. 20 came at Xavier two Sundays ago, and it was a heartbreaking 78-76 overtime setback, though the Spiders covered as a 7½-point underdog. Xavier has won seven of the last eight meetings, going 5-3 ATS.
Despite misfiring as a 10-point chalk against UMass on Friday, the Spiders are still 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games (all in conference). Also, they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at neutral sites this year. Xavier also has been hot at the betting window, currently on ATS runs of 35-16-2 overall, 35-16-1 at neutral courts, 9-3 in conference and 8-3 after a SU win.
Richmond is on a 5-1 “over” uptick, with its last three away from home hurdling the posted price. However, prior to yesterday, the Spiders had stayed under the total in their first three neutral-site games this season. The Musketeers cleared the total against Dayton on Friday, but they’ve still stayed “under” in 10 of their last 12 at neutral venues.
Finally, these teams topped the total on Feb. 28 at Xavier, making the “over” 5-2 in the last seven clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
Georgia Tech (21-11, 14-10-2 ATS vs. N.C. State (19-14, 16-13-1 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets, seeded seventh in this event, may have just played themselves into the Big Dance by virtue of their 69-64 quarterfinal upset of second-seeded Maryland as a four-point pup Friday. Georgia Tech shot a whopping 55.8 percent from the floor, including 66.7 percent from three-point range (8-for-12), while holding Maryland to 37 percent shooting, including a 4-for-21 effort from long distance (19 percent).
The Jackets finished the regular season on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid, but have since rebounded with a pair of SU and ATS wins in this tournament.
North Carolina State, a lowly 11th seed, is on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge after its second upset in as many nights in this tourney, dropping Florida State 58-52 as a 6½-point underdog Friday after stunning Clemson on Thursday. Last night, the Wolfpack forced the Seminoles into a dismal 3-for-18 performance from 3-point range (16.7 percent), while hitting 7 of 15 from long distance (46.7 percent) and 19 of 43 overall (44.2 percent).
Five weeks ago, Georgia Tech notched a 73-71 victory over N.C. State, but the ‘Pack easily covered as a healthy 9½-point road underdog. In fact, N.C. State has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), four of the last five and six of the last nine. Also, the underdog is on a 9-1 ATS tear.
The Yellow Jackets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven at neutral sites (4-0 last four) and are further ATS runs of 4-1-1 following a spread-cover and 13-6-1 after a SU win, though they remain in a 3-6-2 overall ATS rut (all in the ACC).
Meanwhile, along with their current 5-1 SU and ATS run (all in ACC play), the Wolfpack are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on neutral courts this year, allowing an average of just 54.2 ppg while scoring 61.8. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Georgia Tech entered the ACC tourney on a 4-0 “over” surge, but the under has hit the past two days and is 3-1 in the Jackets’ last four neutral-site starts. N.C. State is on “under” streaks of 7-1 overall (all in the ACC, 2-0 last two) and 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. However, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four meetings, and the over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.C. STATE
Miami, Fla. (20-12, 13-9-2 ATS) vs. (4) Duke (27-5, 18-11-2 ATS)
Miami, which ended the regular season on a 1-5 SU dive (3-2-1 ATS), has bagged a pair of mild upsets in the ACC tourney, pounding Wake Forest 83-62 Thursday as a 3½-point pup, then topping Virginia Tech 70-65 Friday, again as a 3½-point ‘dog. The ninth-seeded Hurricanes are a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on neutral courts this year, averaging 77.7 ppg on stout 49 percent shooting, while allowing just 63.3 ppg on 37.2 percent shooting.
Second-seeded Duke has won 10 of its last 11 games (5-4-2 ATS), opening tourney play Friday with a 57-46 victory over Virginia, but never coming close to covering as a 17-point chalk. It was a rare low-scoring effort for the Blue Devils, who average 78.4 ppg (23rd nationally) while allowing just 61.3, and Duke sports the nation’s No. 1 3-point defense, allowing just 27 percent shooting from long distance.
Duke is on an 8-1 SU roll in this rivalry, but has gone just 4-3-2 ATS in that span, pushing as a seven-point road chalk in an 81-74 win on Feb. 17, the only meeting this year. Miami, an underdog in all nine of those contests, is 2-0-2 ATS in the last four clashes.
The Hurricanes are on a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 6-2-2 overall (all in the ACC), 5-0-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 4-0 at neutral sites, 7-1 as a neutral-site pup and 14-6-3 on Saturday. The Blue Devils are on ATS upswings of 8-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 at neutral sites and 7-3-2 in the ACC, but they are 1-3-2 ATS in their last five coming off a SU win.
Miami sports a bundle of “over” rolls, including 6-2 overall (all in ACC play), 7-0 against winning teams, 4-0 after a spread-cover, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-0 on neutral floors and 6-1 as a neutral-site pup. The over is also on a 7-0 run for Duke against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high seven straight times. However, the Blue Devils are on “under” surges of 5-1 overall, 6-1 on Saturday, 5-1 at neutral sites and 29-11 in the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
(1) Kansas (31-2, 13-16-1 ATS) vs. (9) Kansas State (26-6, 18-8-1 ATS)
The Jayhawks, looking to lock up a No. 1 seed in the upcoming Big Dance, have rallied to win four straight (3-1 ATS) since getting blown out at Oklahoma State (85-77) as six-point favorite two weeks ago today. Kansas has cruised in the first two games of the Big 12 tournament at the Spring Center, dominating Texas Tech 80-68 but coming up short as a 17½-point favorite on Thursday, then rallying from a three-point halftime deficit in Friday’s quarterfinal and wiping out Texas A&M 79-66, getting the cash as a nine-point chalk.
Kansas State has rebounded since losing its last two regular-season contests, destroying Oklahoma State on Thursday 83-64 as a 4½-point favorite in the opening round of the tourney and then beating Baylor 82-75 in Friday’s quarterfinals, cashing as a two-point favorite. The Wildcats got 26 points from Jacob Pullen and 24 from Denis Clemente to beat a Baylor team that shot 54 percent from the floor.
The Jayhawks are 4-1 SU and ATS against the Wildcats in the last five in this rivalry, including two winners this season. Kansas went to Manhattan, Kan. and scored an 81-79 overtime win back on Jan. 30, coming up just short as a 3½-point favorite, then the Jayhawks crushed K-State on March 3, 82-65 and easily covering as an 8½-point home chalk. Kansas is 18-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings with the Wildcats, all as a favorite.
Kansas is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600, but the pointspread streaks tumble downward from there, including 4-9 overall (all in the Big 12), 2-6 after a straight-up win, 3-5 away from home, 1-5 on Saturday and 3-9 after a SU victory. Kansas State is on a host of positive ATS runs, including 17-6-1 overall, 12-5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 against winning teams at neutral sites, 15-5-1 versus winning teams and 40-19-2 on Saturday.
The Jayhawks are on “under” runs of 6-4 overall (3-1 in the last four), 11-4 at neutral sites, 30-13 after a SU victory and 19-7 following a spread-cover. The Wildcats have topped the total five straight neutral-site games, and the over is also 5-1 in their last six against winning teams and 9-4-1 in their last 14 on Saturday. Finally, when this month’s meeting at Kansas barely stayed low, it stopped a five-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Illinois (19-13, 13-18 ATS) vs. (5) Ohio State (25-7, 16-16 ATS)
Illinois took a huge step toward enhancing its Big Dance chances when it upset 13th-ranked Wisconsin 58-54 as an eight-point underdog at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Illini took a 29-20 halftime lead and led by as many 13 with less than five minutes to play but barely held on, snapping a three-game SU and ATS losing skid. Illinois is still just 2-5 (3-4 ATS) in its last seven games as it continues to struggle offensively, scoring 60 points or less in five straight games while averaging just 56.6 ppg on 38.1 percent shooting, including 30.1 percent from three-point range.
With his team trailing 68-66 with 2.2 seconds to go, Player-of-the-Year candidate Evan Turner took an inbounds pass, dribbled just past half-court and swished a running 35-foot shot at the buzzer, lifting the Buckeyes to a stunning 69-68 quarterfinal victory over archrival Michigan. Ohio State, coming off a nine-day layoff, fell behind early but took a 10-point halftime lead before stumbling down the stretch and failing to cover as a nine-point chalk. Turner led four teammates in double-digit scoring with 18 points as the Buckeyes won their fifth in a row.
Going back to mid-January, Ohio State has won 14 of 16 games overall, going 14-1 in Big Ten play (9-6 ATS). That includes a pair of wins and spread-covers over the Illini (72-53 as a two-point road chalk on Feb. 14 and 73-57 as a 9½-point home favorite in the regular-season finale on March 2). The Buckeyes are 7-2 in the last nine meetings (6-3 ATS), and the SU winner has covered the spread in nine of the last 10 clashes.
The Illini ended an 0-6 ATS neutral-site slump with yesterday’s upset of Wisconsin, but they’re still in pointspread funks of 1-3 overall, 3-8 on Saturday and 4-10 after a spread-cover. Ohio State has failed to cover in five of its last six on Saturday, but it is still 7-3 ATS in its last 10 at neutral venues, 4-1 ATS in its last four after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams.
Illinois has topped the total in five of six at neutral sites and four of five on Saturday, but it is also on “under” runs of 4-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-1 after a SU win, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 versus winning teams. Also, even though the Buckeyes soared over the total in Friday’s win over Michigan, they’re still on “under” stretches of 6-2 after a victory, 12-4 after a non-cover, 6-2 versus winning teams and 38-16-1 on Saturday. Finally, the under has hit in four of the last five in this rivalry, with both of this year’s battles staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Minnesota (20-12, 16-15 ATS) vs. (6) Purdue (27-4, 12-17-2 ATS)
Minnesota continued its late-season surge on Friday when the Golden Gophers upset 11th-ranked Michigan State 72-67 in overtime, cashing as a four-point pup, in the Big Ten quarterfinals at Conseco Fieldhouse. Minnesota has now won three in a row (SU and ATS) and six of eight overall, cashing in seven of those eight contests. Devoe Joseph led the way for the Gophers Friday with 17 points and six rebounds, though Minnesota shot just 39 percent from the floor.
Purdue used a big second half to rally past Northwestern on Friday, winning 69-61 and pushing as an eight-point chalk. The Boilermakers got 28 points from E’Twaun Moore and 22 points from JaJuan Johnson and held the Wildcats to 37.2 percent shooting to advance to this semifinal matchup. Purdue has won three straight (0-2-1 ATS) and 13 of 14 (5-8-1 ATS), but it hasn’t cashed a ticket since a Feb. 17 victory at Ohio State, going 0-5-1 ATS since.
The Boilermakers are on a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) streak in this rivalry, including a two-game sweep this season, prevailing 79-60 on Jan. 5 as 8½-point home favorites and 59-58 at Minnesota on Feb. 24, coming up short as a three-point road chalk. In this series, the straight-up winner is on a 9-1-1 ATS run coming into today’s contest.
The Golden Gophers are on ATS runs of 7-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-0 against winning teams, 6-2 on Saturday, 4-1 following a victory and 5-1 after a spread-cover. The Boilermakers are in ATS ruts of 3-11-1 as a favorite, 1-6-1 as a favorite away from home, 1-6 on Saturday, 1-3-2 at neutral venues and 0-3-1 versus winning teams.
For Minnesota, the “under” is on streaks of 13-5 against teams with a winning record (7-1 last eight against winning teams) and 42-19 on Saturday, but it has topped the total in its last four overall. Purdue is on “over” streaks of 6-3 away from home, 5-2 as a road favorite, but the Boilers also carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 7-1 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU win.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 11 of the last 12 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
(22) Georgetown (23-9, 16-12 ATS) vs. (7) West Virginia (26-6, 13-18 ATS)
Georgetown advanced to the Big East tournament championship game at Madison Square Garden after scoring 43 second-half points Friday en route to an 80-57 rout of Marquette, cashing as a 3½-point favorite. The Hoyas shot 53.6 percent from the floor, led by Greg Monroe’s 23 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists. After losing four of six to close the regular season (SU and ATS), Georgetown has rattled off four straight wins and covers.
West Virginia made it five straight wins overall (2-3 ATS) Friday, holding off red-hot Notre Dame 53-51 but coming up short as a 5½-point chalk. The Mountaineers shot 50 percent from the field and got 24 points and seven boards from Da’Sean Butler while holding the Irish to 34.1 percent shooting. Bob Huggins’ squad has won seven of its last eight games, but is just 2-4 ATS in the last six (failing to cover in both games in this tournament).
In this series, the Mountaineers have won two straight, including an 81-68 home win on March 1, cashing as seven-point favorites. West Virginia is 7-4 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Hoyas.
Georgetown has cashed in five straight neutral-site games, but despite the Hoyas first 4-0 ATS run in more than two seasons, they are still just 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games after a spread-cover. The Mountaineers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site contests (1-4 last five).
The Hoyas are on “under” runs of 6-2 after a straight-up win and 48-23 after a spread-cover. West Virginia has topped the total in four of five after a non-cover, but it is on “under” runs of 12-1 against winning teams, 5-1 after a straight-up victory and 4-1 at neutral venues.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
San Diego State (24-8, 16-13 ATS) at UNLV (25-7, 19-11 ATS)
San Diego State advanced to the Mountain West tournament championship game at the Thomas & Mack Center – and likely locked up a Big Dance berth regardless of tonight’s outcome – with a thrilling 72-69 upset victory over No. 8 and top-seeded New Mexico as a 2½-point underdog. The Aztecs, who barely survived a quarterfinal matchup against Colorado State on Thursday (71-70 victory), shot 52 percent from the field, going a blistering 10-for-16 from three-point range. Forward Billy White poured in a game-high 28 points and true freshman Kawhi Leonard added 15 points and 12 rebounds.
After San Diego State dispatched of the top-seeded Lobos, the Rebels took to their home court and gutted out a 70-66 victory over No. 2 seed BYU, cashing as a one-point favorite. Like the Aztecs, UNLV had a sensational shooting night, hitting at 55.6 percent (42.1 percent from three-point range), and they limited high-scoring BYU to 39 percent overall (9-for-25 from beyond the arc). The Rebels, pounded Utah 73-61 but came up just short as a 12½-point chalk in Thursday’s quarterfinal contest, are now 15-3 all-time in Mountain West tournament games played at the Thomas & Mack.
The Aztecs have won four in a row and 10 of 13 (all in the Mountain West), but it has followed up a 6-0 ATS spurt by failing to cover in four of its last six. Meanwhile, UNLV also has won 10 of 13 (all in conference), including the last six in a row (4-2 ATS).
Home court held serve in this rivalry in the regular season, with UNLV prevailing 76-66 as a seven-point favorite on Jan. 13 and the Aztecs getting revenge with their own 10-point win (68-58 as a 3½-point chalk) exactly a month later. San Diego State is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series meetings, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last eight clashes.
San Diego State opened the Mountain West season with consecutive road losses but has since gone 6-2 SU and ATS on the highway in league play (tournament included). Meanwhile, UNLV is just 5-5 ATS in conference home games.
San Diego State has gone over the total in its first two games of this tournament, and the over is 7-3 in its 10 Mountain West road/neutral-site games and 6-1-1 in its last eight against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rebels have stayed under the total in eight of 12 overall (4-3 “under” at home). Lastly, the over is 5-1 the last two days in the Mountain West tournament.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT
(at Los Angeles)
Washington (23-9, 13-18 ATS) vs. California (23-9, 19-12 ATS)
The Huskies bring a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) into the Pac-10 championship game inside the Staples Center after crushing Stanford 79-64 on Friday night, cashing as an 8½-point favorite. Washington held the Cardinal to just 30.6 percent shooting and got 19 points and seven boards from Quincy Pondexter and outrebounded Stanford 43-33. In their tournament opener Thursday, the Huskies topped Oregon State 59-52, but came up just short as a nine-point chalk – the team’s only non-cover during its six-game winning streak.
Cal also made it six straight wins (6-0 ATS) on Friday with a come-from-behind 85-72 win over UCLA in the semifinals, easily cashing as a 7½-point chalk. After trailing 39-35, at halftime, the Golden Bears outscored the Bruins 50-33 in the final 20 minutes to get the win. Cal shot a whopping 60 percent from the field and got 24 points and six assists from Jerome Randle and 20 points from Theo Robertson. With the win and cover, Cal improved to 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games (all in conference)
The home team scored blowout wins this season, with the Huskies pounding Cal 84-69 as a 2½-point favorite back on Jan. 16 and then the Bears cruising 93-81 as a 4½-point chalk Feb. 11. Cal is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series clashes.
Washington has failed to cash in four of six at neutral sites, but it is on ATS runs of 6-0 on Saturday and 4-1 after a SU win. Cal is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite, and the Bears are on additional pointspread surges of 6-0 on Saturday and 4-0 against winning teams. However, they’re still just 2-6 ATS in their last eight at neutral sites.
The Huskies are on “over” runs of 31-14 in Pac-10 action and 23-11 after a straight-up win, while the Bears have topped the total in six of nine overall, 16 of 21 at neutral sites and 37 of 55 in Pac-10 play, but the under is 6-1-1 in Cal’s last eight on Saturday. In this series, the over has cashed in six of the last seven battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville)
Mississippi State (22-10, 14-12-1 ATS) vs. (20) Vanderbilt (24-7, 16-13 ATS)
Mississippi State, the top seed in the SEC West, ended a two-game SU and ATS skid by opening the conference tourney with a 75-69 victory over Florida on Friday as a 1½-point favorite. The Bulldogs are 4-1 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 13 ppg (70.8-57.2), shooting 45.4 ppg while allowing just 37.9 percent shooting.
Vanderbilt, the No. 2 seed in the SEC East, opened tourney play with a 78-66 victory over Georgia on Friday as an eight-point chalk for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS). The Commodores have narrowly outscored opponents in five neutral-site starts this year, averaging 72.2 ppg on 43.2 percent shooting, while allowing 70.2 ppg on an even 43 percent shooting, going 3-2 SU and ATS in those contests.
Mississippi State has covered in the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU), after a 3-0 ATS run by Vandy. The Rebels are a solid 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
The Bulldogs are on ATS runs of 4-0 on neutral floors and 12-5-1 coming off a spread-cover, but they are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Saturday starts. The Commodores are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Saturday outings and 1-5 ATS in their last six following a spread-cover, though they carry positive ATS streaks of 10-4 against winning teams, 8-3 against squads with a win percentage above .600 and 12-5 at neutral sites.
The under for Mississippi State is on surges of 7-1-1 at neutral sites and 6-1 on Saturday, but the over has hit in the Bulldogs’ last four against winning teams and is 5-1 in their last six games following a SU win. Likewise, Vanderbilt is on several “over” tears, including 12-3 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1-1 at neutral sites, 7-2 on Saturday, 22-8 in the SEC and 8-3 after a SU win. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) Tennessee (25-7, 13-15-1 ATS) vs. (2) Kentucky (30-2, 16-14 ATS)
Third-seeded Tennessee has peeled off five consecutive wins (3-2 ATS), all in SEC action, including tourney wins of 59-49 over LSU on Thursday as an 11½-point chalk and 76-65 over Mississippi last night laying 2½ points. The Volunteers were outscored on the road this year by an average of about four ppg (67.6-63.9), but on neutral courts, the Vols are averaging 74 ppg and giving up 60 ppg, going 5-1 SU (3-2-1 ATS).
Kentucky tumbled 74-65 at Tennessee on Feb. 27 as a 2½-point chalk, but has since won three in a row (1-2 ATS), opening the SEC tourney with a 73-67 victory over Alabama, but falling short as a 9½-point favorite. The top-seeded Wildcats have gone 4-0 SU at neutral sites this season (2-2 ATS), averaging 70.8 ppg on 45.8 percent shooting, while holding foes to just 60.5 ppg with a defense that’s allowed just 35.2 percent shooting.
This is the third meeting between these rivals in the past month. Kentucky won 73-62 giving 9½ points at home on Feb. 13 prior to Tennessee’s aforementioned home win and cover. The Vols’ win halted a 5-0 ATS surge by Kentucky in this rivalry (4-1 SU). In addition, the SU winner is 10-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Vols are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 starts as a neutral-court pup and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 outings following a spread-cover, but they are on ATS rolls of 4-1 on Saturday, 4-1 against winning teams and 22-8-1 catching less than seven points. The Wildcats are in a 2-5-1 ATS rut as a neutral-site chalk, but they’ve gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover and 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday affairs.
Tennessee is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 19-7-1 overall, 4-0-1 at neutral sites, 5-0 on Saturday, 13-3 as a pup, 20-7-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 20-8-1 in conference play. Kentucky is on “under” surges of 6-1 on neutral floors, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 coming off a SU win. Additionally, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
The Warriors meet the Raptors at home Saturday with strong history and scheduling factors in their favor tonight. For openers, Toronto finds itself in the 3rd leg of a 4-game West Coast road swing knowing they are 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS away in games off a loss this season. On the flip side, Golden State is 13-3-1 ATS against foes off back-to-back losses this season, including 8-0-1 ATS as a pick or dog. With that, look for the Warriors to improve on their 5-0 SU and ATS mark as a host in this series here this evening.
Matt Fargo
New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas made it 12 straight wins with a come-from-behind win over New Jersey on Wednesday as it survived another win, no cover at home. The Mavericks host the Knicks Saturday which looks like another pushover but I have a feeling New York is not going to go away easily here. The first meeting this season has something to do with that as the Knicks were absolutely embarrassed in that game on January 24th as Dallas went into MSG and built a 53-point lead before “holding on” to win it by an even 50 points. Games decided by margins like that are obviously rare in the NBA as even the bad teams are not that bad but that first meeting simply got out of control. Egos were bruised and feelings got hurt and Knicks players have not forgotten about it. With the way Dallas is playing and with the Knicks on a current 7-22 run, we have a big line and one that is filled with value. The Knicks have been big underdogs on the road of late when playing the better teams in the league and this number didn’t stray from that. Dallas can take this game one of two ways. First, it can come in pretty motivated as it will know that the Knicks are going to be after some payback. Second, it can come in lethargic and with a lack of focus knowing what happened the first time. It is hard to predict what the mental state will be but I do know that New York will be more fired up for this one than the Mavericks will be and we all know how motivation plays such a large part in the NBA. A big problem with Dallas, if you can even say the second best team in the Western Conference has problems, is that it cannot put teams away at home. The Mavericks are a horrible 8-24 ATS at home including a 7-24 ATS mark as home favorites. They win but they don’t win big. Road revenge is a tough angle in the NBA but there are exceptions and this one certainly fits. 3* New York Knicks.
Play on: New York
VEGAS EXPERTS
Illinois at Ohio State
Now that Illinois got its much needed win vs. Wisconsin yesterday, look for them to be outclassed for a third time by top seed Ohio State. The Buckeyes did not play their best on Friday, but still beat Michigan and now face an Illini team that was 0-5 ATS in neutral court games this season before the Wisconsin win. Not to mention they blew Illinois out twice this year, by scores of 72-53 and 73-57. Lay the points.
Play on: Ohio State
Ben Burns
Ottawa @ Vancouver
PICK: Ottawa
While I successfully played against them in their last game, I like and respect the Canucks. They're a solid team. They're well-coached and they've got a very good goalie. They're also an impressive 23-7-1 at home this season. All that said, this is a very difficult scheduling spot for them.
The reason that I say this is a "difficult spot" is that they're playing their first game back home, after an extended road trip. That's often tough for teams. However, in case, the road trip has been going on for weeks, literally. Indeed, the last time that the Canucks played a home game was way back on 1/27. Since then, they've played a whopping 14 games away from home. That's an NHL record.
Granted, they did get to spend some time "at home" during the Olympic Break. Still, they've played six road games since that time, which is a fairly long road trip by itself. Playing their first game back home and with division rival Calgary on deck, I feel that they may have some trouble here.
Note that the Canucks are just 11-9 the last 20 times that they played the front-end of back to back games. That's 55%, which normally isn't too bad. However, when considering that they'll be heavy favorites here, it's actually not that good a record. Also, a closer look reveals that each of their last four wins, when playing the front end of a back to back situation, have ALL come by a single goal. That means that if they were laying -1.5 goals, the Canucks would actually be 0-8 the last eight times that they were in that situation!
The Senators already beat the Canucks earlier this season, at Ottawa. Looking back further and we find that Ottawa is 10-9-1 its last 20 games in this series, including 5-5 its last 10 here at Vancouver. Note that four of the last seven meetings were decided by a single goal.
If you're looking for a big underdog with a solid shot at an upset, Ottawa is worth a real look. However, in this case, with another 1-goal game being a real possibility, I'd consider laying the wood and grabbing the Sens at +1.5 goals.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Buffalo @ Detroit
PICK: Buffalo -1.5
With yesterday's super easy winner on the Lightning/Capitals "under" 7 total goals, we've now successfully cashed four "free play" selections in a row.
Tonight, Buffalo travels to take on the Wings at 7:00 ET, and for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is the Sabres on the "puck line".
It will be a home-coming for silver medalist Ryan Miller tonight; the Michigan native gets the start in net for the Sabres and he's going to hear some pretty loud cheers from the crowd (Miller played on Michigan State for two years).
Miller however has not fared well against the Wings over the years, but he'll be looking to get the Sabres back in the win column after a one-game hiatus. Patrick Lalime was in net Friday, where the Sabres three-game win streak was snapped by Minnesota.
The Sabres are two points ahead of the Senators, who play a tough one in Vancouver this evening.
On the other side of the rink: Goaltender Jimmy Howard stopped 21 to earn his 25th win of the season in a 5-1 rout of the Wild on Thursday.
Detroit has won four of six and is currently on the outside looking into the Playoffs; certainly a position this team is not used to being in this late in the season.
Bottom line: I expect this to be a close game.
Detroit is playing much better and seems to have turned a corner of late; better all around play on both ends of the ice.
That said, Buffalo is in a dogfight with the Senators and will be looking to get back into the win column.
I expect Miller to come out fired up in this one as well.
In a tightly contested affair, which could very well see OT, I'll lay the wood for the 1 1/2 here.
JIM FEIST
TORONTO RAPTORS / GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
TAKE OVER
The Toronto offense is improved with Chris Bosh back in the lineup. But, oh, is this defense awful, giving up 114, 109 and 113 points the last three games. The Raptors are on a 4-3 run over the total and have allowed 109 or more points in 6 of the last 7 games. Golden State has defensive problems of its own, on a 4-2 run over the total allowing the most points in the NBA (111 ppg). Have to look for an offensive show. Play the Raptors/Warriors Over the total.
EZWINNERS
Golden State Warriors +1.5
The Warriors and Raptors are both struggling, but I'll side with the home team in this contest. The Raptors are on a 1-8 slide against the spread in their last nine games and they have not won at Golden State since 2004. The Warriors have been playing small ball even more than they normally do with injures to their big guys Ronny Turiaf and Andris Biedrins and while this has not equated to many wins, the Warriors are still third in the NBA in scoring as they average over 107 points per game. Scoring and tempo will be the keys to Golden State winning this game against Toronto. The Raptors do not do well in fast paced games as they are only 13-35 this season when their opponent scored 100 or more points. Look for Golden State to pick up the home win.
James Patrick Sports
Clippers vs. Spurs
LA has had their problems on the NBA road with just (17) wins in the past (57) games and their series with the San Antonio Spurs has seen the favorite cash the winning ticket in (6) straight contests. The Clippers are win-less at (0-7) ATS in their past (7) meetings with the Spurs. The Big Man's Saturday selection in the NBA is San Antonio Spurs.
Karl Garrett
Detroit at ATLANTA (-12)
Friday free play winners on the Clippers, and Xavier, now 15-8-1 my last 24 comp play selections.
NBA "lumberjack" special this Saturday is to lay the lumber with the Atlanta Hawks as they take on a Detroit Pistons team that just played last night at home against Washington.
The Pistons simply don't win many games, and their spread mark when playing in back-to-back games is horrible at 4-13-1 against the line.
Atlanta is a solid 25-7 straight up at home this season, and 19-13 against the spread in those home games, and they are thinking revenge on a Detroit team that actually beat them, 94-88 way back in late November at Auburn Palace.
That Pistons win stopped an Atlanta 3 game win streak, and a 4 game Hawks cover streak.
With games at New Jersey and Toronto looming on the horizon, this is a stretch that should see the Hawks emerge in tact with wins in all 3 of those games.
First things first, a blowout on Friday night at Philips Arena.
2♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
Tennessee vs. Kentucky (-4), at Nashville, TN
I'm on a 65-36-3 streak with FREE plays and today I have a college winner for you on Kentucky as the Wildcats will get the win and cover agianst Tennessee in the SEC tournament semifinals.
Kentucky is battling for a top spot in the NCAA tourney and if they win their way through the SEC tourney, they’ll probably get that No. 1 seed. The Wildcats have the talent to win the championship this year, but it’s just a matter of getting them all to get on the same page.
They edged Alabama on Friday, winning 73-67, but falling short as a 9 ½-point favorite. The Wildcats have the two best players in the SEC with DeMarcus Cousins doing the damage inside while John Wall takes care of the pace and tempo. Cousins had just seven points and eight rebounds in the win over Alabama, while Wall had 23 points, seven rebounds and five assists.
Kentucky has won three of the last four series clashes with Tennessee and six of the last nine. The Wildcats have cashed in seven of the last nine, including a 73-62 home win back on Feb. 13, but they fell 74-65 on Feb 27 as a 2 ½-point road chalk.
The Vols have won five straight but alternated wins and losses at the betting window in their last eight contests. They are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 after a spread-cover. Kentucky is on ATS runs of 5-1 on Saturdays, 9-1 after a non-cover and the Wildcats are coming in with a mindset on winning the conference tourney.
Love the ‘Cats in this one, don’t worry about the chalk, Kentucky will win this one by 14.
4♦ KENTUCKY
Denver (-2') at MEMPHIS
I'm on a 65-36-3 streak with my FREE selections and I have an NBA winner for you tonight as I lay the small chalk with the Nuggets visiting Memphis to take on the Grizzlies.
This line is way too short as Denver has been beating up the opposition lately, scoring at least 102 points in each of its last five games, all wins and all by seven points or more.
The Nuggets are going on a back-to-back after having beaten New Orleans on Friday, 102-95 as a 5 ½-poitn favorite. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games and putting up 114.2 points a game and averaging 49.9 percent shooting from the field. Meanwhile, they’ve allowed just 101.4 points per game in the last five and they’ve shot just 39.9 percent.
Now I know that Memphis is red-hot as well, but the Nuggets have taken eight of the last nine series clashes (5-4 ATS) and needed 111 points last year in Memphis to squeak by 111-109 as a 6 ½-point road favorite. Denver has won three of its last five trips to Memphis and cashed in three of the five.
Denver is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. Southwest Division foes while Memphis is on ATS slides of 0-4-1 at home and 1-5 against Northwest Division squads.
Ride the hot hand, play Denver to win and cover in Memphis tonight.
5♦ DENVER
Chuck O'Brien
Tennessee vs. Kentucky (-4'), at Nashville
Take Kentucky and lay the points against Tennessee in SEC tournament action on Saturday.
I’m really not surprised Kentucky struggled with Alabama, with it being the first conference tournament game for the young Wildcats (who have a combined eight freshmen and sophomores, many of them key contributors). But after falling behind early, Kentucky’s talent bubbled to the surface in the second half and it dominated the Crimson Tide over the final 20 minutes.
Now that the Wildcats have a taste of what tournament basketball is like, I expect a much stronger, more focused 40-minute effort today against Tennessee. Certainly, the ‘Cats won’t lack for motivation, as it was the Volunteers who handed Kentucky one of their two losses on the season just two weeks ago in Knoxville. Consider that In their only other revenge situation this year, the Wildcats destroyed South Carolina 82-61 (Kentucky’s first loss came a month earlier at South Carolina, 68-62).
These teams actually split their regular-season series (Kentucky won 73-62 at home as a 9½-point favorite), so despite losing in Knoxville, they’re still 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Also, the winner has covered the pointspread in 10 of the last 11 meetings. To that last point, of Kentucky’s 30 victories this season, only four have been by fewer than five points.
4♦ KENTUCKY
Jeff Benton
I remain on runs of 36-19-1, 26-13-1, 23-12-1 and 17-9-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday’s freebie in college basketball, take Temple minus the points against Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 tournament
Lot to love about the Owls here. First and foremost, they’ve won eight in a row and 16 of their last 18, going 15-2 in Atlantic 10 play. They’ve also cashed in five straight games and seven of their last nine, all as a favorite, and for the season they’re a rock-solid 21-11 ATS.
Compare all that with Rhode Island. Despite consecutive wins in this tournament, including yesterday’s 16-point rout of Saint Louis, the Rams are just 4-5 SU in their last nine games and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 (2-7 ATS last nine). A couple of those SU losses were inexcusable, too, including to A-10 bottom-feeders UMass and St. Bonaventure.
Temple’s 15-2 conference record includes two wins over Rhode Island (by four points on the road and 22 points at home). In fact, the Owls have won and covered three in a row and five of the last seven in this rivalry.
Bottom line: I know this game means a lot more to Rhode Island (which is desperately trying to play its way into the Big Dance) than Temple (which is a lock for the big Tournament). But the Owls are vastly superior, and it’s especially evident on the defensive end of the court. Get this: Temple gives up 57.6 ppg overall and just 50.6 ppg over its last five games. The Rams surrender 70.8 ppg overall and 71.8 over their last five (and that includes yesterday’s 47-point effort against Saint Louis. Lay the chalk.
5♦ TEMPLE
Brett Atkins
I scored a free winner on Friday night in the Big East semifinals with Georgetown as the Hoyas clobbered Marquette for the easy winner. Today I have another college conference tourney winner for you, this time laying the chalk with Kentucky as the Wildcats will get the win and cover over Tennessee in the SEC semifinal.
Kentucky is going to be a No. 1-seed in the Big Dance next weekend and this is just one more step the Wildcats have to get past in order to get there. They looked good on Friday night, beating Alabama in the quarterfinals, but they didn't get anything really from big-man DeMarcus Cousins.
We know star John Wall is going to deliver, and he had 23 points in the win over the Tide, but it's Cousins that is the real barometer for this team. If he's getting it done inside, this team usually rolls to an easy win. If he struggles, the team struggles.
Kentucky is 9-1 ATS after a non-cover, while the Vols are just 3-9-1 ATS in neutral site games and 7-18-1 after a spread-cover. Love the Wildcats in this one.
4♦ KENTUCKY