Jack Jones
Rhode Island vs. Temple
Pick: Temple -3.5
Temple is far and away the best team in the Atlantic-10 conference and they prove it again Saturday with a big win over Rhode Island in the Semifinals. The Owls won both meeting with Rhode Island this season, winning by 22 at home and by 4 on the road. The Owls are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Rhode Island. Dating back further, Temple is 19-6 SU & 17-8 ATS in their last 25 meetings. Temple is 7-0 ATS in conference tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
This play also falls under a system that is 44-15 (75%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against neutral court teams (RHODE ISLAND) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. Take Temple.
Jimmy the Moose
Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Under 230
After playing very good basketball for a stretch the Raptors have really struggled of late. Their D has been bad and they have been losing games they should have won. Tonight look for a this team to show a lot more commitment to D and that will keep this game under the total. The under is 11-4 in the Raptors last 15 games vs. a team from the Western Conference. The under is 5-2 in the Raptors last 7 games as a favorite.
The Warriors have played under the total in 8 of their last 11 games vs. a team from the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 games played vs. a team from the Atlantic Division. The Warriors have played under the total in 10 of their last 14 games following an ATS win. Their last 5 games played on a Saturday have all played under the total.
Toronto needs to tighten up their D if they hope to make the playoffs and tonight they'll do just resulting in the under.
Scott Spreitzer
San Diego St. at UNLV
Pick: SDSU
Living in Las Vegas for years, and covering UNLV basketball on local radio has allowed me to pay extremely close attention to all-things Rebel. They have become quite predictable under Lon Kruger, especially this year's version. The only thing that surprised me about last night's win over BYU was the close margin. The Rebels were in control for most of the game, but only won by four points. I expected an 8-10 point win. BYU just doesn't matchup well with UNLV. They have lost eight straight times to the Rebels in Las Vegas, and were quite fortunate to win in Provo earlier this season when UNLV let one get away. But SDSU presents a completely different challenge for UNLV. The Aztecs, like New Mexico, play UNLV's style, but may be a little more athletic than the Rebels...and that is saying a lot. The Aztecs are loaded with offensive talent, and are not intimidated one bit when they take the floor at the Thomas & Mack. SDSU has won two of their last three over UNLV in Las Vegas. The teams split this season's tilts, each winning on their own floor. But UNLV's 76-66 win at home was quite misleading. Despite Billy White nursing an injury that night, the Aztecs led by six at the half, and were in a tie game midway through the second half. But UNLV caught fire down the stretch, SDSU went cold, and the Rebels won. SDSU returned the favor in the rematch in San Diego and a healthy Billy White led all scorers with 19 points. The Las Vegas native is playing well in the tourney for SDSU and goes unmatched in this one. The Rebels also don't matchup well with freshman Kawhi Leonard, who I expect to have a big game on Saturday. SDSU also hits UNLV where it hurts the Rebels the most...on the boards. The Rebels have had their problems on the glass this season, and SDSU has exploited that weakness, out-rebounding UNLV 42-30 and 37-22 in this season's two meetings. This is also a bigger game for the Aztecs. There chance of an at-large bid is probably 50/50 if they fail to win this game. Meanwhile, UNLV is a virtual lock for the Big Dance whether they win or not. UNLV could be a serious matchup headache for a couple of less athletic opponents in next week's field of 64. But the Aztecs are a major migraine for UNLV. I'm playing San Diego State in Saturday's MWC championship.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto –2 over GOLDEN STATE
This is a pivotal game for the Raps after that lifeless effort in Sacramento on Wednesday night. The Raps were cruising along before the break and were really in a strong position to make the playoffs as a four or five seed but now they’re fighting for their playoff lives after losing seven of its last eight. They’ve lost at home to Philly and were blown out by both Houston and Oklahoma City and there is just no way they don’t put forth a strong effort tonight. In fact, you could go as far as saying this is its biggest game of the year because they’re now at .500 and a loss here would likely result in them going 0-4 on this crucial trip when you consider they play in Portland tomorrow. They have to treat this one like a playoff game and they’re too good to keep losing to inferior teams and you can double that when you consider the importance of this game. The Raps have 10 guys that can all score, they have a superstar in Chris Bosh, they have two excellent guards in Jack and Calderon and this could very well be the defining game of its whole season. Play: Toronto –2 (Risking 3.06 units to win 2).
Mike Hook
Kansas St. +6 vs Kansas
This line is simply too low. We all know that these two teams are amongst the top 7 teams in the country. With that being said, i think the VALUE today is on Kansas St.
Kansas St. has nothing to lose, and everything to gain today. I love that this line opened up at 5.5 of course, as that's a clear indicator to me that K St. will be tough. I had this line personally at +6.5, but i told myself if this line came out LOWER than that, i would be all over the Wildcats. That won't change, as i love everything about the line movement regarding this game.
Kansas St. has the talent to be able to hang tough, especially with their guard play. What makes Kansas St. so good is the fact that their guards get them in the right situation time and time again. The Wildcats match up well enough to keep this a 1 or 2 possession game.
After watching these teams play twice this season, i'm convinced that the Wildcats can beat Kansas. I truly believe the Wildcats want this game more, and i think it will show today on the court. Just remember, this line came out the way it did for a reason. That reason is because Kansas St. is likely to win this game OUTRIGHT.
I'm backing KANSAS ST +6
GoodFella
MEM +2 vs DEN
This is my ONLY strong lean in the NBA & I really think the Grizz win outright- 3rd road game in 4 days for Denver--they have had just average games at best over Minny and New Orleans their last two. Grizz playing some of their best ball of the season right now & they have DOMINATED the Nuggs on the glass in both meetings this season & no K-Mart on the boards and his toughness and "D" will be missed tonight. Look for ZIBO and GASOL to have BIG games down low & look for the Nuggs outsides shots to falter in the 2nd Half. Grab the 2 pts with the GRIZZ as they win outright tonight. And of course, I am a big fan of the "trap" line set & the shady line movement thats going on here too.
Sac Lawson
Vanderbilt -2 vs Miss. St
Sorry guys I'm completely limited for time, and won't be able to have a writeup here. I love Vandy's size, they'll matchup well with Vernado down low. And although I like MSU's ability to knock down threes, I think Vandy's discipline is key, and I think Vandy's poise at the line will keep them on the winning side of a close game.
John Ryan
New Jersey Nets vs. Houston Rockets
Play: New Jersey Nets
5* graded play on New Jersey as they take on Houston set to start at 8:35 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that NJ will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 48-22 ATS for 69% winners since 2004. Play on any team that is a poor offensive team scoring between 88-92 PPG and facing a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 PPG and after a loss by 6 points or less. NJ is playing better as evidenced by covering 5 straight games. At least better than the public believed to be possible. I mentioned this over the past several weeks in the EDGE article and continue to believe that somehow they will get to 10 wins. NJ is also a perfect Play On - Any team (NEW JERSEY) - a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a loss by 6 points or less. Houston HC Aldeman is just 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) after 2 straight games being called for 5+ less fouls than opponent in all games he has coached since 1996. We also like a 1* amount on the money currently listed at +500 at most sports book venues. Take NJ.
Charlie Scott
San Diego State vs. UNLV
Play: Over 129.5
San Diego st has been playing at a faster pace this Tournament with both of their games going Over, and should be able to score inside on UNLV. UNLV is at home and is usually good for at least 70 points at home in the Mack. The Mountain West Tournament play has been physical and the refs have been calling alot of fouls, expect to see alot of free throws tonight. Although I think both teams are in the NCAA Tourney, both teams will play to the end of the game and foul the last couple of minutes to go Over this low total !
Hollywood Sports
Long Beach St. at Cal-Santa Barbara
Prediction: Long Beach St.
Long Beach State (17-15) were picked by many to be the preseason favorite to win the Big West conference. The 49ers embarked on playing the most difficult non-conference schedule in the country with games against Kentucky, Duke, Texas and Clemson to name a few. Long Beach State covered in the Duke and Kentucky games. They also have a nice win on their schedule against Utah State. But they faltered once entering Big West play in January. Yet now Long Beach State finds itself riding some momentum here in March. They have won five of their last six games. And they have covered five of their last six games coming off a win. Furthermore, the 49ers have covered five of their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%. UC-Santa Barbara (19-9) caught a break by playing a mediocre UC-Davis club yesterday, 76-62, as a 5-point favorite. The Gauchos are just 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games coming off a point-spread win. And UC-Santa Barbara is only 18-40-3 ATS in their last 61 games against teams with a winning record. Long Beach State will likely redeem themselves from an underperforming conference run by winning the Big West Conference Tournament. Take Long Beach State.
Info Plays
3* on Houston Rockets -9.5
Reasons why the Rockets cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams (NEW JERSEY) - off 2 covers where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in March games. This is a 36-12 ATS System hitting 75% since 1996.
2.) The Nets are on a second of a back-to-back and are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile, the Rockets have had 3 days off in between games. They have a huge edge tonight considering the Nets went down to the wire with the Thunder yesterday, only to lose by 2 points. New Jersey won't bring much energy to the floor tonight. Bet Houston at home.
Black Widow
1* on Purdue -3
Purdue made easy work of Northwestern Friday, while Minnesota needed overtime to get by Michigan State. That win took a lot out of the Gophers, and we don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to compete with Purdue Saturday. The Gophers are 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games off an upset win as an underdog since 1997. Purdue has won all 4 meetings with Minnesota over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota comes out sluggish after a huge upset win over the Spartans. Take Purdue and lay the points.
Dwayne Bryant
W.Virginia -2.5 vs Georgetown
Kentucky was my #1 play today. The only other strong lean that my gut kept telling me to play was West Virginia. I've been looking at this game over and over again all afternoon, and I just have to pull the trigger here.
Georgetown comes into this one having routed South Florida by 20, then upset Syracuse, and blew out Marquette by 23 in their last game yesterday. On the flip side, WVU comes into this one off a three-point win over Cincinnati and a two-point win over Notre Dame in their last game yesterday.
So G'town has upset Syracuse and had two blowout wins in this Big East Tournament, while WVU has narrowly escaped with two straight skin-of-their-teeth wins. Based on that info, the public has backed G'town to the tune of 64% of more than 17,000 reported bets. Yet the line has gone from WVU -1.5 to -2.5. It's pretty clear where the wiseguys put their money.
These two met in Morgantown on the first of this month, with WVU scoring a 13-point win despite getting outshot by the Hoyas 49% to 43%. The Mountaineers were +12 in turnovers in that one, and my research shows that WVU should once again win the turnover battle. WVU ranks 60th in offensive turnover percentage and 123rd in defensive turnover percentage. The Hoyas rank 206th in offensive turnover percentage and 226th in defensive turnover percentage.
Watch De'Sean Butler. He has scored 49 points combined in the last two meetings against the Hoyas. G'town has shot over 50% in each of their last two games and I don't expect them to be able to do that again tonight.
G'town should also be the more fatigued team in this matchup. The Hoyas have played three days in a row, while the Mountaineers have only played two days in a row. And WVU's games have been played at a much slower pace than the Hoyas' games.
Bottom line: This just looks too easy. G'town has upset Syracuse & hammered two other foes in this tourney. WVU has squeaked by two straight foes, yet you can get points with the Hoyas. Like I said, it's clear where the "smart money" went and I'll gladly follow. Lay the small number with West Virginia.