Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Albany vs. Vermont
The Catamounts look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Vermont is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Catamounts favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Vermont (-6 1/2)

Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 64.453; Memphis 67.135
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 2 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Memphis by 5 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+5 1/2); Over

Game 515-516: Alabama vs. Florida (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 61.722; Florida 76.720
Dunkel Line: Florida by 15; 112
Vegas Line: Florida by 12 1/2; 116
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-12 1/2); Under

Game 517-518: Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 68.685; Vanderbilt 61.668
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 7; 129
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 4; 133
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-4); Under

Game 519-520: NC State vs. Miami (FL) (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 69.306; Miami (FL) 68.257
Dunkel Line: NC State by 1; 140
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 2; 135
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+2); Over

Game 521-522: Maryland vs. North Carolina (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 62.649; North Carolina 71.372
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2; 140
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-3 1/2); Under

Game 523-524: Butler vs. St. Louis (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 65.682; St. Louis 67.516
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 126
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4; 122
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+2); Over

Game 525-526: Massachusetts vs. VCU (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 61.776; VCU 67.888
Dunkel Line: VCU by 6; 155
Vegas Line: VCU by 8; 150
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+8); Over

Game 527-528: Wisconsin vs. Indiana (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 68.820; Indiana 77.381
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 8 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Indiana by 6 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2); Under

Game 529-530: Michigan State vs. Ohio State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 72.736; Ohio State 75.416
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 2 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 1; 124
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-1); Over

Game 531-532: Kansas State vs. Kansas (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 67.459; Kansas 73.473
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 6; 130
Vegas Line: Kansas by 4; 133
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-4); Under

Game 533-534: New Mexico at UNLV (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 68.182; UNLV 67.927
Dunkel Line: Even; 132
Vegas Line: UNLV by 3; 126
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+3); Over

Game 535-536: Ohio vs. Akron (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 62.001; Akron 58.834
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 3; 135
Vegas Line: Ohio by 1; 140
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-1); Under

Game 537-538: Syracuse vs. Louisville (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 69.684; Louisville 77.332
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 7 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Louisville by 5; 123
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-5); Over

Game 539-540: Oregon vs. UCLA (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 67.766; UCLA 65.093
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 2 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Oregon by 1 1/2; 138
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-1 1/2); Under

Game 541-542: UC-Irvine vs. Pacific (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 55.326; Pacific 58.597
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 3 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Pacific by 1 1/2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-1 1/2); Under

Game 543-544: TX-Arlington vs. New Mexico State (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 54.635; New Mexico State 61.954
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 7 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 4; 124
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (-4); Over

Game 545-546: Weber State vs. Montana (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 58.605; Montana 54.853
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 4; 124
Vegas Line: Weber State by 2 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-2 1/2); Under

Game 551-552: Albany vs. Vermont (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 51.112; Vermont 60.297
Dunkel Line: Vermont by 9; 127
Vegas Line: Vermont by 6 1/2; 120
Dunkel Pick: Vermont (-6 1/2); Over

Game 553-554: Prairie View A&M vs. Southern (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Prairie View A&M 35.598; Southern 49.953
Dunkel Line: Southern by 14 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Southern by 12; 122
Dunkel Pick: Southern (-12); Under

Game 555-556: North Carolina A&T vs. Morgan State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 49.546; Morgan State 52.986
Dunkel Line: Morgan State by 3 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Morgan State by 2; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (-2); Over

Game 557-558: Northwestern State vs. Stephen F. Austin (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern State 54.615; Stephen F. Austin 58.501
Dunkel Line: Stephen F. Austin by 4; 129
Vegas Line: Stephen F. Austin by 4 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern State (+4 1/2); Over

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Anaheim vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: AnaheimFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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These teams have played twice this year. Anaheim won 6-5 in St. Louis on February 9th, and 4-2 at home on March 10th.
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Anaheim is coming off a 2-1 shootout win at Dallas on Thursday. Goaltender Jonas Hiller is 7-0-1 in his last eight outings: ''If you're fighting hard and doing the right things, things will go your way,'' said Hiller after the win.
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St. Louis is coming off a 3-0 win over Phoenix on Thursday. Jake Allen made 29 saves. Chris Stewart had two goals and an assist.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that Anaheim is 20-3-3 overall, and 9-2-3 on the road.
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Note that St. Louis is 15-10-2 overall, and 7-5-1 at home.
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Pick Analysis
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Anaheim is 7-0-2 in its last nine, and is an amazing 11-2-1 when its opponent scores first. For me this one comes down to goaltending though; great value on Hiller in this matchup. Consider a second look at the red hot Anaheim Ducks tonight!

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Montreal vs. New JerseyFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MontrealFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils have played together just once this season, and the Habs came away with the 4-3 win at home on January 27th. Montreal is 18-5-4 this year, and 9-2-2 on the road. Most recently the Canadiens are coming off a 4-3 OT win over Ottawa on Wednesday (Montreal is 5-2 this year when playing with two days of rest). New Jersey is 13-9-5, and 9-3-2 at home. It's coming off a 2-1 OT loss at Philadelphia last night (interestingly, New Jersey is just 4-5 this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent). The Devils come in with weary legs and continue to struggle with consistency, while the Habs resume their balanced play at both ends of the ice (note that Montreal has scored at least three goals in eight straight games). Great line value on the hot and rested visiting side.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Saint Louis -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Saint Louis is red hot as is evident by having won 13 of their L/14 games. They owned Butler in two meetings this season, winning 75-58 at home then coming in as road dog and taking out a Bulldogs team that was playing with revenge by a 65-61 count! Here in a neutral court , environment nothing is likely to change. Key trend: Billikens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio SpursFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a nice system cashing 72% since last season that plays against Same Season Non conference road dogs that have home loss revenge. The Spurs have covered 7 of 9 vs Central Division teams. All teams at San Antonio on the road with no rest are 0-9 and 2-7 ats if the Spurs were at home in their last game. In the Series the Spurs are 6-0 and 5-1 ats of late. San Antonio has 3 days off after this one and catch a tired Cavs team that spit the bit in Dallas last night and is likely to get blown out here. Take the Spurs.

Dave Cokin

Massachusetts vs Va Commonwealth
Pick: Va Commonwealth

I am finding Virginia Commonwealth fairly easy to handicap these days. It's really pretty simple. If VCU and its Havoc defense generates lots of turnovers, chances are the Rams are going to do pretty well. If Shaka Smart's troops run into an offense that takes good care of the ball, those teams are able to withstand the onslaught and end up with great looks that result in easy baskets. Patience and spacing is a huge key when facing this outfit. UMass has a tendency to be anything but patient. The Minutemen love to rev it up and we saw what happened playing that style in the prior meeting between these teams. Massachusetts was right there until a handful of minutes into the second half. That's when the Minutemen broke and from that point on, it was all VCU. If I thought UMass learned its lesson that day, I'd either be on them or would simply cross this game off as a no play. But the tendencies of the Minutemen are still largely the same, and I therefore see as this mostly a rerun of the first meeting. I'm expecting the Rams to eventually force UMass into way too many bad possessions, and will look for the collapse to take place at some point. If it goes that way, this won't be close, so I'll tab VCU minus the points as the choice today.

Jim Feist

Indiana at Philadelphia
Pick: Under

Indiana and Philly likes to slow the pace down and the Pacers had to play the Lakers last night. Indiana is second in the NBA in points allowed and the under is 9-3-1 in the Pacers last 13 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. Philly is a weak offensive team, preferring a slower pace for Doug Collins, and the under is 11-5-1 in 76ers last 17 vs. the Eastern Conference. And when these East rivals meet the under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia. Play the Pacers/76ers under the total.

JR O'Donnell

Butler +3.5

NOT THE MOST POPULAR PLAY ON THE BOARD AS FEEL A TON OF BILLIKENS LOVE .. not us ...#'s are on the Bulldogs side.. Huge edges on the glass and a big big key stat here for us is the Bulldogs ability to stroke the free throw down the stretch.. we all saw that Maryland Terps free throw performance last night as Duke was trying to get back in that ball game. Maryland Terps a smooth 10/10 straight free throws over the final two minutes last night Play these BullDogs + 3.5 line is way too cheap imo ...Power rated @ -1.1 points for the Billicans.

Jack Jones

Detroit Pistons +10.5

The Detroit Pistons come into this game Saturday with the Portland Trail Blazers way undervalued. That's because they have lost seven straight games coming in, which has the betting public looking to stay away from them. The Pistons should not be catching double-digits tonight.

A closer look at the Pistons' 7-game losing streak shows that five of those seven defeats came to current playoff teams, and five were on the road. The other two were against Dallas and New Orleans by a combined 8 points, which are two Western Conference teams that are underrated in my book.

With the way the Blazers have been playing over the past month, they have no business being this heavily favored tonight. They have lost 11 of their last 16 games overall to really put themselves in a terrible position of trying to play catch-up in the playoff race. This is not a playoff team folks.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years. In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 7 points or less. That includes a 108-101 home victory by Detroit on November 26th in their first meeting this season. The Pistons have now won their last two meetings with the Blazers dating back to last year.

Detroit comes in well-rested having last played on Wednesday in a 97-105 loss at Golden State as an 11-point dog. That's good news considering it is 31-13 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. The Pistons are also 41-21 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Blazers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the Pistons Saturday.

Jeff Alexander

Wisconsin +7

Wisconsin held Indiana to a season-low 37.0 percent shooting in a 64-59 victory at Assembly Hall during the regular season. That was Wisconsin's 11th straight victory over the Hoosiers. The Badgers have been playing excellent defense of late, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points or less. If they are able to hold Indiana down again, they'll have a great opportunity to keep this one within the number. I like their chances considering how well they have performed against top competition this season. The Badgers have won six of nine versus ranked foes on the season, and they have won their last two against teams ranked in the top 5.

BRAD WILTON

Your comp play winner for Saturday will be Alabama plus the double-digits against Florida.

I saw what Florida did to LSU on Friday afternoon, as the Gators sure showed plenty of bite in their 80-58 whitewashing of the Tigers, but I do not think Billy D's team will be able to run away and hide from today's foe.

Alabama recorded a stout defensive 58-48 revenge win over Tennessee on Friday afternoon, and their defense is what will keep them in Saturday's semi against Florida.

The Tide did lose by 12 at Florida back on March the 2nd, but they did at least stay inside of the number that afternoon as the +16 point underdog. Alabama in fact has gotten the bacon in the last pair of series meetings, as the dog is now on an 8-2 series run the past ten meetings.

Florida has won the past 6 series meetings straight up, so not to sure the Tide is able to pull the shocker on Saturday, but keep in mind that Florida's cover over LSU yesterday was just their 2nd in their last 7 games, while the Crimson Tide is now on a 4-1 pointspread uptick, covering ALL 3 in that stretch when getting points.

Take the points and Bama to at least stay close.

4* ALABAMA

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie is to take the Badgers plus the points as they play against the Hoosiers in the early afternoon Big Ten semifinal from the United Center.

Gotta give Wisconsin props for battling from double-digits down on Friday afternoon, as the Badgers dispatched a tough Michigan team 68-59 to advance to this round.

Indiana cruised by Illinois in their Friday affair, but the sledding gets tougher against a team that has been a definite thorn in their side in recent years.

The Badgers are owners of an 11 game series winning streak over the Hoosiers, and they are a solid 9-2 against the spread during their current domination.

Hard to argue 11-0, especially when you are getting the team riding the 11 game winning streak plus three baskets or so.

It may be a sucker play, but mark me down for a play on Wisconsin to continue to be a thorn in Indiana's side.

Take the underdog Badgers.

3* WISCONSIN

CRAIG DAVIS

Today's free play is in the NBA where I have the Washington Wizards over the Phoenix Suns.

For starters, yes, I'm fully aware the Wizards haven't beaten the Suns since December of 2006 when they forced overtime and wound up surprising Phoenix, 144-139.

But times are different and the Wizards enter tonight's game having won three of their last four games... and that's without the services of injured rookie Bradley Beal, who has been dealing with an injured left ankle.

During this mini-run, G John Wall has averaged 26 points and 11 assists and finished with a season-high 29 points in last night's nine-point win over New Orleans.

He's also shooting nearly 60% from the field and can seemingly do no wrong. While we obviously can't expect that to continue, he's also not facing a great defensive team so I don't expect it to stop tonight unless he just goes ice cold on his own.

The Wizards are 14-4 in their last 18 at the Verizon Center, which is ironic because they lost 13 of their first 16 in that same building. And Washington is beating everyone... not just the bad teams. They've beaten the Clippers and Thunder and Spurs and Grizzlies and Pacers, etc. So how can Phoenix stop them?

They can't.

Take Washington as your free play of the day.

2* WASHINGTON

Patrick Webb

Indiana -7

Indiana has three key advantages in this game- rebounding, eFG% and depth. Wisconsin won a game of attrition yesterday versus Michigan barely surviving a horrible first half where they trailed at one point 18 to 10 and scored only 17 points in the first half. Wisconsin heated up in the 2nd half and scored 51 which is completely uncharacteristic of the Badgers and they won't have that kind of half against an Indiana team that can match their defensive intensity and has too many scoring options for Wisconsin to hold down. I look for Indiana to grab an early lead and extend it throughout the game. Indiana 73 Wisconsin 59