DUNKEL INDEX
DUNKEL INDEX
Colorado vs. Baylor
The Bears look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games against Pac-12 opponents. Baylor is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-7 1/2)
Game 517-518: Kansas State vs. Syracuse (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 68.451; Syracuse 70.837
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 2 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 5; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+5); Under
Game 519-520: Gonzaga vs. Ohio State (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 66.652; Ohio State 76.000
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 9 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 7; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick Ohio State (-7); Over
Game 521-522: Murray State vs. Marquette (5:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 63.559; Marquette 70.496
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 7; 147
Vegas Line: Marquette by 5; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick Marquette (-5); Over
Game 523-524: Iowa State vs. Kentucky (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 66.464; Kentucky 79.227
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 13; 136
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 11; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-11); Under
Game 525-526: Vanderbilt vs. Wisconsin (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 72.765; Wisconsin 72.529
Dunkel Line: Even; 116
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 1; 121
Dunkel Pick Wisconsin (+1); Under
Game 527-528: Colorado vs. Baylor (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 62.201; Baylor 72.454
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 10 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Baylor by 7 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-7 1/2); Over
Game 529-530: New Mexico vs. Louisville (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 69.778; Louisvile 69.919
Dunkel Line: Even; 123
Vegas Line: Louisville by 1 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick New Mexico (+1 1/2); Under
Game 531-532: VCU vs. Indiana (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 64.561; Indiana 72.669
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 8; 144
Vegas Line: Indiana by 6; 139
Dunkel Pick Indiana (-6); Over
Game 533-534: Massachusetts at Seton Hall (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 61.960; Seton Hall 66.450
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 4 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 8; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick Massachusetts (+8); Under
Game 539-540: Georgia State at Mercer (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 61.381; Mercer 58.168
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 3; 132
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 1 1/2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick Georgia State (-1 1/2); Over
Game 541-542: Buffalo at Oakland (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 59.666; Oakland 61.477
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2;
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 165 1/2
Dunkel Pick Buffalo (+3); Under
Game 543-544: Robert Morris vs. Toledo (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 56.766; Toledo 53.590
Dunkel Line: Robert Morris by 3; 143
Vegas Line: Robert Morris by 2; 138
Dunkel Pick Robert Morris (-2); Over
Game 545-546: Drake at Rice (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 55.873; Rice 62.693
Dunkel Line: Rice by 7; 139
Vegas Line: Rice by 4 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick Rice (-4 1/2); Over
Game 547-548: Idaho at Utah State (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 55.753; Utah State 60.293
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 4 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Utah State by 6; 134
Dunkel Pick Idaho (+6); Under
Marc Lawrence
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
When the Spurs take on the Mavericks in Dallas Saturday evening San Antonio will take the court looking to avenge a 101-100 setback suffered here on Jan 29. With the Spurs in the right side of the money in eight of 11 games they've dressed up as dogs this campaign, and the defending champs mired in a 2-10 ATS slump in their last 12 games, the points become the play here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Antonio.
Rob Vinciletti
New Mexico vs. Louisville
Play: New Mexico +1.5
New Mexico is the 5 seed here today against 4th seeded Louisville in basically a pickem game. New Mexico has won 6 straight with 1 or less day of rest and a solid 12-1 vs teams who allow 65 or less points per game. The Lobos have won 6 of the last 7 in neutral court games and 15 of 21 vs winning teams. Louisville is 8-7 vs teams ranked in the RPI top 50 while New Mexico has a better 8-3 record vs these top ranked teams. Add in the 4-7 record Louisville has as a neutral court favorite of -3 or less and we will side with New Mexico here tonight.
Sean Murphy
Virginia Commonwealth @ Indiana
PICK: Virginia Commonwealth +6
We cashed with VCU in their tournament-opening win over Wichita State. That victory went down as an upset on paper, but I certainly didn't see it that way.
This isn't the same Rams squad that went to the Final Four last year, but it isn't far off. The cupboard is by no means bare, and much like we saw with Butler last year, VCU is more than capable of making another deep run in the tournament.
The Rams started 2012 with two losses in their first three games, but have dropped only one game since - a narrow one-point setback at George Mason back on February 14th. Since that defeat, they've gone a perfect 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS.
As we saw on Thursday night, this is a team capable of beating you at both ends of the floor. It's worth noting that despite that impressive performance, I still belive that the Rams can play better. Note that they had only nine assists compared to 11 turnovers in the game.
VCU isn't going to get out-worked, and certainly won't be out-coached as long as Shaka Smart is at the helm - even against Tom Crean's Indiana squad, which hails from a so-called 'power conference'.
The Hoosiers rolled past New Mexico State in their tournament-opener, and have now delivered the cash in five of their last six games overall. Of course the lone blemish over that stretch came in another big game, a 79-71 loss at the hands of Wisconsin in the Big 10 Tournament.
Indiana has enjoyed a terrific 2011-12 campaign to date, and I feel it has been an undervalued commodity for much of the way. However, I'm not sure that's the case any longer. The secret is out, so to speak, as they're now laying the same number against VCU that they did against what I considered to be an inferior New Mexico State team on Thursday.
It's also worth noting that more than one-third of the Hoosiers ATS wins this season have come in the underdog role. They're 11-7 ATS as a favorite, and 7-3 ATS as a 'dog.
The Rams have enjoyed similar success in the underdog role, and will certainly be comfortable with that billing again on Saturday. They've gone a perfect 4-0 ATS when catching points this season.
This has the makings of a competitive affair from start to finish. I believe VCU's defense presents a serious challenge, and will gladly take the points in this spot.
Teddy Covers
Colorado @ Baylor
PICK: Baylor -7.5
My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner with Colorado over UNLV on Thursday Night, as the Buffaloes jumped out to a 20 point lead and hung on late for the victory. But Colorado’s weakness down the stretch of that ballgame speaks volumes about their inability to compete in this ‘step-up-in-class’ contest on Saturday.
The Buffs are on quite an impressive run: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since the start of the PAC-12 tournament, winning outright four different times as an underdog. But there was one common denominator in all five of those wins. Colorado didn’t face a team with a strong low post presence at any point during that run. Now, this tired team (this is their sixth game since last Wednesday) must find a way to battle against Baylor’s dominant low post trio of Perry Jones III, Quincy Acy and Quincy Miller. The PAC-12 didn’t have a trio like that anywhere in the conference, leaving Colorado with some real matchup problems here.
Baylor can be a frustrating team to watch at times. They’ve got Final Four caliber talent, but their execution down the stretch of tight games has been downright miserable for a good portion of the season. That being said, I don’t expect Colorado to have the lead in the closing minutes, and the Buffs are a team that will foul, foul, foul and foul some more in the final minute – they’re not going to dribble out the clock. And the one thing Baylor does right during crunch time is making free throws, hitting at a 75% clip over the course of the season, among the Top 25 in the country in that department. Even if Baylor doesn’t pull away early, they’ve got a solid shot to cover this number late! Take Baylor.
Jack Jones
Colorado +8
The Colorado Buffaloes are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. Just because they play in the Pac-12 this team has not been getting any love. The perception of the Pac-12 is down, and as a result the Buffaloes are undervalued.
Colorado is now 24-11 on the season after winning the Pac-12 tournament, and then beating UNLV as a 5.5-point underdog in their first-round game of the NCAA Tournament. This team keeps feeding off momentum and disrespect, and they won't be an easy out for Baylor Saturday.
The Bears have been one of the most overrated teams in the country all season. Baylor is 28-7 on the year, but their non-conference schedule was as easy as it gets. their true colors showed as they lost three out of four games in Big 12 play during a stretch in February. They didn't even finish in the top three in their conference.
Colorado is 8-2 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season. The Buffaloes are 7-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. Baylor is 11-22 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Bears are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Baylor is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Bet Colorado Saturday.
Jimmy Boyd
Golden State Warriors +8
Motivated by last night's embarrassing 120-98 loss to Milwaukee, expect the Warriors to save face with a strong showing against the Jazz.
The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz, meanwhile, are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.
The Warriors are trying to fight through injuries as well as adjust to a few new teammates. Still, they should be motivated enough to keep this one close versus a Utah squad that will be without leading scorer Al Jefferson. We'll take the points.
Jim Feist
New Mexico vs. Louisville
Play: Under 128
Louisville didn't get to the Big Dance by shooting lights out. This team shoots .425% as a team, 225th in the nation. They got here by defense, winning the Big East tourney by allowing 50 and 44 points their last two games, then topping Davidson, 69-62, allowing 35% shooting. They are on an 8-1 run under the total and the under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 NCAA Tournament games. The under is 7-3 in the New Mexico Lobos last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, so look for another game with more defense than offense. Play New Mexico/Louisville under the total.
Dave Cokin
Robert Morris vs Toledo
Pick: Robert Morris
Robert Morris is better than Toledo both on the attack and when defending as well. They're also a good road team with away wins against teams like La Salle, Duquesne and a team still playing the Big Dance, as they knocked off Ohio at Oxford. Toledo has had a nice recovery this year but I see the Rockets going down here. Robert Morris minus the short spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ohio State -7½ over Gonzaga
7½-points may seem like a bit too much after what Gonzaga did to West Virginia. The Zags were a very small dog against the Mountaineers but came out on fire and put them away early. This isn’t the pedestrian Mountaineers. Truth is, the Zags are getting a little too much respect here by the public. The Zags have a strong reputation in this event (14 straight appearances) and that easy first round win has their stock much higher than it should be. Gonzaga finished second in the WCC to St. Mary’s. The Gaels are on the rail after losing to Purdue last night. The other team in this field from that conference was BYU, who lost by 20 to Marquette. The rest of the conference featured a bunch of cupcakes. The Zags lost to both BYU and St. Mary’s, not to mention losses to Michigan State and Illinois. Their record is impressive but their résumé is not. The Buckeyes are scary good. Jared Sullinger is an absolute beast on the low blocks who can't be stopped defenses. When foes choose to surround Sullinger, Ohio State's other two double-figure scorers (senior William Buford and sophomore Deshaun Thomas) are quite capable of making them pay. The Buckeyes played a tough out of conference schedule and an even tougher Big-10 schedule. OSU’s 19-point opening round win was not close to being their best. They came out flat and everyone outside of Deshaun Thomas was off their game. That they played badly and still won by 19 is a strong indication of what these Buckeyes are capable of. Play: Ohio State -7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Kansas State +4½ over Syracuse
Let’s not ignore the controversial calls that went the Orangemen’s way that had the entire betting world in an uproar. Syracuse survived a serious scare on Day 1 and many believe that those bad calls influenced the outcome. Syracuse is likely not going to get favorable calls today and a well prepared Wildcats team should be in good position to finish them off. K-State's strength this season has been Syracuse's Achilles' heel: rebounding. The Wildcats generate extra possessions on the offensive glass by rebounding 41% of their missed shots. The average team in college basketball grabs offensive rebounds at a 32% rate. The Orange, with and without Fab Melo, are giving up offensive rebounds at an alarming 40% rate because coach Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone defense extends its forwards out to defend the 3-point line. As a result, the basket is available for Jamar Samuels, Jordan Henriquez and Thomas Gipson to attack and create some scoring opportunities. The Wildcats are playing with confidence and they also play relentlessly on every possession of every game. They were close to having one of the best records in all of Division 1 after seven of their nine regular-season losses came after holding second-half leads. They can not only stay within range here but they could certainly win outright too. Play: Kansas State +4½ +100 (Risking 2 units to win 2).
Iowa State +11 over Kentucky
Kentucky is the favorite to go all the way. They’re also playing in its own backyard and what that has created is an inflated line and one we can take advantage of. ISU’s easy win over UConn was no fluke. This is one of the best #8 seeds this tournament has seen in quite some time. They have size, depth, experience and the ability to play any style the game dictates. Only once this season have the Cyclones lost by more than the points being offered here. They out-rebounded the Huskies by 19 on Thursday and when you combine that with the way they can shoot, defend and knock down treys, it’s evident that this is a team that is very tough to “put away”. The Wildcats are hugely talented but that doesn’t make them invincible. They’re inexperienced and there are always those early round slugfests that a team like this has to endure to get to the finals. This is one of those danger games against perhaps the most undervalued teams in the field. Overlay. Play: Iowa State +11+100 (Risking 2 units to win 2).
Accuscore Analyst Picks
Marquette -4.5 vs. Murray State
In my opinion Marquette has been one of the most underrated teams in the country by the general public. The Eagles aren’t a big team, but they are physical and play hard at all times for Buzz Williams. They have lost just three times since a 2-4 stretch around the New Year. Size will not be an issue against the Racers who I also like, just not in this game. AccuScore has gone just 9-18 ATS picking Marquette games this season meaning the computer has it underrated. I am fading the computer pick which has Marquette favored by just two points.
Gonzaga vs. Ohio State Over 134.5 Points
The computer sim total for this game is 138 points. The AccuScore record for totals in Gonzaga games is 19-10 (65.5 percent) and 19-11 (63.3 percent) in Ohio State games.
Toledo +2 vs. Robert Morris
There are also NIT games on Saturday just nobody will see them because of the NCAA tournament. This game however provides some nice value as the computer favors Toledo by a point at home. The computer has gone 4-0 ATS in Robert Morris games, and 17-9 (65.4 percent) in Toledo games.
MATT RIVERS
Now let's get to a free play for Saturday, and I will side with the Big East Conference over the Mountain West's Lobos of New Mexico.
Both teams have caught an updraft at the right time, as both are conference tournament winners from last weekend. New Mexico's win streak is at six in a row both straight up and against the spread, while Louisville is on a five game win and cover tear.
New Mexico is a little deeper, as nine players average 13-minutes or better for Steve Alford's team, but I prefer the talent that Rick Pitino has assembled with his Louisville team in a game that is priced right around a pick.
The Cardinals are now 11-5 versus the number away from Louisville this season, and at the end of the day if you give me the Big East conference priced near a pick versus the Mountain West conference, my choice will be the team that plays out of the "beast" from the Big East.
Stick with Louisville as the small favorite in this third round encounter.
4♦ LOUISVILLE
SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner for tonight takes you out to Portland, Oregon, in the Rose Garden, where the Mountain West's only team left, the New Mexico Lobos, will take on the Big East's Louisville Cardinals. With a matchup like this and the line where it is, I have to defer to the first game for both and determine which one looked more impressive.
Let's start with the Cardinals, the fourth-seed in the West Regional who held off a feisty Davidson team that fought off Louisville's defensive pressure to cut the deficit to 26-24 in the first half to keep things close. To the Cardinals' credit, they did go up 58-44 with 3:37 left in the game, but inside the next three minutes, the Wildcats scratched and clawed their way back to within five points, but Louisville as able to fend them off. Now, as impressive as Louisville's win might have looked, I don't think it wants to toy around with a team like New Mexico, the same way it did with Davidson.
Though neither squad led by more than six in the first half, the Lobos showed fight and plenty of heart in the second half, taking control of its first round game against Long Beach State. The 49ers pulled within 54-53 with 8:08 remaining, and they even took a 61-59 lead with 4:57 left in the game. But that's when the Lobos responded with a 9-1 run to regain momentum.
Now if you're wondering where the thought process is, since it appears Louisville had an easier time, and the Lobos were the ones who had to scrap for their win, well, that's the point. I think New Mexico was more impressive because it actually had to put in work for this win. The Lobos were in a battle, so when they come up against a team like Louisville, they're going to be battle-tested. On the flipside, I don't necessarily know if the Cardinals are expecting a good game from New Mexico, and just might underestimate Steve Alford's bunch.
Let's take a shot here with the underdog number on New Mexico.
1♦ NEW MEXICO
DEREK MANCINI
I'm laying it with Kentucky over Iowa State for Saturday's Free Play.
I gave you Iowa State outright over UCONN as my 40 Dime paid play winner on Thursday, so I know what this Cyclones team is capable of. Unfortunately for them this is a MUCH different match up for Iowa State, as unlike UCONN Kentucky can defend the 3-point line. Not to mention, after the barrage they put on the Huskies two days ago, there's no question Calipari will have his troops ready for Royce White and company tonight.
Speaking of White, he's going to have a hell of a time with the freakishly athletic Anthony Davis tonight. Moreover, the Cyclones simply don't have the size to match up with the rest of Kentucky's vaunted frontline. Although that didn't seem to be a problem against Connecticut, it will be tonight, as the Wildcats bigmen are far more athletic (and talented for that matter). The backcourt match up is just as lopsided with Lamb and Teague against this good, but not great Iowa State trio of Allen, Christopherson and Babb.
Finally, the oddsmakers know full well that the public is overreacting to the Cyclones upset over Connecticut. As I write this 60-65% of the action is coming in on Iowa State, which is just ridiculous. Just because they beat a Huskies team whom they had tremendous advantages against (UCONN 3-point defense is atrocious), doesn't mean that will translate into another cover here tonight. Sorry guys, but Iowa State gets exposed by a supremely talented Kentucky squad in this one. Lay it with Kentucky over Iowa State Saturday.
3♦ KENTUCKY