DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Murray State-Marquette matchup.
In this game, we have two offensive-minded teams.
Murray State averages 73.7 points a game, while Marquette averages 76.3 points a game.
To bolster those numbers, Murray State shoots 47.4 percent from the field, while Marquette shoots 45.9 percent. What is even more impressive is Murray State shoots 40.6 percent from three-point range.
Both teams are going to push the ball and it’s going to be a wide open game. The total at 142 ½ is a little high for an tournament game, but with the style of play here, it will not be that hard to get to that number.
Murray State may have the edge in long-range shooting, but Marquette has the inside edge with forward Jae Crowder, the Big East Player of the Year. He should have a big game inside.
The style of play here favors scoring on both sides and it’s not likely either side will try to slow it down.
Take the over.
3♦ OVER
CHUCK O'BRIEN
Last night I scored a huge free winner for you with Ohio getting it done outright over Michigan. That was a 1♦ winner on the free pick scale. Today I have something twice as strong, as I go against the Big 10 once again, taking the Gonzaga Bulldogs over the Ohio State Buckeyes, plus the points in this East Regional clash in Pittsburgh. I know the Zags didn't face much of a test Thursday night in their rout of the Big East's West Virginia Mountaineers, and a victory over the powerful Buckeyes will be much tougher. That all is a given.
But you do realize why they call games between West Virginia in Pittsburgh the "Backyard Brawl," right? It's because Pittsburgh is a home away from home for the Mountaineers, and the way the Dawgs tore through Bobby Huggins' crew was simply amazing to me. Especially when we're talking about a team that traveled from the Pacific Northwest to play a team that traveled 75 miles.
Point blank - seventh-seeded Gonzaga is pissed off about having its 11-year streak of being conference tournament champs in the West Coast Conference snapped, and came to play. So as far as I'm concerned, the No. 2 seed Buckeyes are going to have their hands full with this game, and won't be walking off the court with a touchdown or better winner. This game is staying within the 6-1/2 points.
Ohio State barely had a tune-up game, as it won in decisive fashion against No. 15 seed Loyola (MD). Using their size advantage, the Buckeyes doubled up on the Greyhounds, outrebounding them 46-23 en route to a 78-59 victory. Fact is, if Loyola played Gonzaga, I'd expect the same type of rout by the Bulldogs. Now the Bucks are stepping up in class, with a real thoroughbred, and Gonzaga coach Mark Few is no stranger to games like this.
Being a West coast resident, I'm naturally inclined to root for the Zags, who come into this one on ATS runs of 5-1 in neutral site games, 4-1 in non-conference games and 5-2 against winning teams.
I have an eerie feeling this one is going to come down to the end, and I just hope the ball bounces Gonzaga's way. The point spread, though, not even worried. This one will be close, and the dog will cover. Take the points.
2♦ GONZAGA
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free winner is on Ohio State over Gonzaga.
How many times in the second round have you seen a lower seeded team blow someone out, get a lot of accolades in the press, and then get pummeled in the round of 32? It happens every year... and this one is no different.
Gonzaga played great. They shot over fifty percent from the field and from downtown and actually did a great job on defense against a pesky West Virginia offense. They "looked" like one of the best teams in the country that night.
But it's one game!!!
Seriously? Why is the media jumping all over the Gonzaga bandwagon? They had a good season, but lost their conference tournament against St. Mary's (who just got beat by a low-level team in the Big 10 --- Purdue) yesterday, and now because of that one win against an average West Virginia team... all of a sudden they are the team to beat?
Nice try. I'm not buying it. Ohio State is better, bigger, more experienced and more hungry to get further. Sure, the Zags might keep this close for a while, but in the end the Buckeyes will prove too strong, winning by 12.
4♦ OHIO STATE
JEFF BENTON
The Syracuse bandwagon got smaller after starting center Fab Melo was ruled ineligible for the tournament. The remaining riders got off when the 'Cuse struggled past NC-Ashville on Thursday in their tournament opener. But that's okay because those factors have contributed to making the Orange a small 4 1/2-point favorite against Kansas State today in East Region play in Pittsburgh.
The Wildcats advanced to the second round with a 70-64 win Thursday against Southern Miss. But keep in mind they were down five with 13 minutes to play and needed a heroic 30-point effort from guard Rodney McGruder to dismiss the Golden Eagles.
Today McGruder is tasked with hitting his outside shots against Syracuse's 2-3 zone. Now it's not as strong as it was with Melo anchoring the middle, but it's formidable nonetheless. Plus, consider this: McGruder was on fire against Southern Miss, but the rest of the team went 0-for-7 from three-point land. And today those same K-State guards will be facing much more physical and athletic counterparts for Syracuse.
The Orangemen have been an awful play in Vegas of late, failing to cover 11 of their last 15 games, including seven of eight. If Melo was playing today, or if Syracuse didn't look so pathetic on Thursday, this line would undoubtedly be -7 1/2 today. The reduced price makes the favorite all the more attractive.
2♦ SYRACUSE
Vegas Experts
Virginia Commonwealth at Indiana
Play: Virginia Commonwealth
VCU's outright win over Wichita State on Thursday ran the Rams mark to 10-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games and once again they find themselves catching a generous number of points Saturday in a Round of 32 battle with Indiana. Indiana is missing one of its primary ball-handlers, who is also the third leading scorer. Playing for a second time in three days is not a good thing for these Hoosiers. VCU has won 18 of its last 19 with the only loss coming by one point. They haven't lost a game by more than six points since November.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Syracuse -4.5 over Kansas State: The Cuse really need to make a statement here. They got heir wake up call vs Ashevile and after what happened yesterday I don't expect any of the top seeds will take their opponents lightly. The Cuse is the deepest team in the field and they have had a game to further adjust to the loss of Melo, so they may not miss him as much in this game. Kansas State is a tough team and had a great year, but this is not a good time for them to be facing a Syracuse team that is out to make a statement.
3 UNIT PLAYS
VCU +6 Over Indiana--- When Indiana played NMSU the other day, they seemed to be playing a team that was overwhelmed by evewrthing that goes on at the Big Dance. The aggies just didn't have a clue and the Hoosiers took advantage and beat em up pretty good. The won't happen here with this VCU squad, as they have been here before and have done very well with a Final four appearance last year. They will not be intimidated. This is a very sound team as it is and hey should be able to keep this one close, or win it outright, Offensively Indiana has been hot, but the they may not be able to hold up to the pressure that the Rams will throw at them. This one will go down to the wire.
Wisconsin/ Vanderbilt Over 121: (Added) Vanderbilt Just played a defensive minded, slow down the pace ball club in Harvard and the two teams put up 149 points. Vanderbilt averages 73.1 ppg on the year and 72.2 ppg away from home, plus they shoot the ball really well as they have hit 46.1% of their shots, including a solid 39.1% from long range. Vanderbilt has been pretty solid on defense down the stretch, but they still allow 65.4 ppg overall and 68.4 ppg away from home, plus they did allow Harvard 70 points in their last game. Wisconsin has started to play better offensively as they have hit 70+ points in 3 of their last 4 games, after not hitting 70 points since back in mid January. Defensively we know how strong the Badgers are and they did play well vs Montana, but I really don't expect them to shut the door on this solid Vanderbilt offense. Both offenses are playing really well right now and that should make for a game in the 130's.
2 UNIT PLAYS
UMass +7.5 over SETON HALL--- Just too many points here for a team that can score as well as Umass. Seton Hall won their opener, but still struggled with Stony Brook and UMass is much better. Seton Hall is still not thrilled about being here and after today they may not have to worry about that any more.
Louisville/ New Mexico Over 129: (Added) Last night on the Radio show i Indicated that I was looking at the Under in this game, well upon further review I have gone the other way. Both of these teams can play excellent defense as the Lobos have allowed just 59.3 ppg on the year, while the Cardinals have allowed just 61.3 ppg, but I see the offenses having a good showing in this one. The Lobos come in hot offensively as they have averaged 76 ppg in their last 6 games, plus they average a solid 69.6 ppg away from home this year. Louisville's offense has been playing well of late as they have averaged 66.8 ppg in their last 4 games, compared to 54.8 ppg in their previous 5 games. This should be a close game through out with just a bit more offense that defense as both teams score in the mid to upper 60's in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Colorado/ Baylor Over 134: (Added) BAYLOR is 37-21 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 80%) over the last 2 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +115 over FLORIDA
These two have played three times this season with the Sabres winning twice and losing once by a 3-2 count. The Sabres are 9-2-2 over their past 13 games and can move within a single point of that final playoff spot with a win here. Time is running out quickly for every team on the outside looking in. After this game, Buffalo will have just eight games left and therefore you can expect to see the Sabres to bring it tonight. The Panthers stock is on the rise with three consecutive wins. Not only did Florida win but they won by scores of 2-0, 5-2 and 6-2. Those are all misleading scores, as the Panthers were not close to dominating that trio of Carolina, Toronto and Boston and one could argue that they weren’t the better team on the ice in any of those three. They ran into some weak goaltending by Jonas Gustavsson and Tim Thomas. Everything has been going right for the Panthers lately. They’re scoring goals at an unsustainable rate that is likely to end here against Ryan Miller. With their playoff lives on the line and getting a tag, the Sabres offer up the value in a game that could surely go their way. Play: Buffalo +115 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +170 over N.Y. RANGERS
Game is off the board at the time of this writing due to the unknown status of Henrik Lundqvist. Lundqvist is just getting over a flu bug but whether he plays or not, the Rangers are going to be a significant favorite and we’re stepping in (we’ll update when line is released). The Avalanche have not played at MSG since October of 2010. A trip here has to be exciting for the players but more than that is the Avs’ are on their game. They’re coming off back-to-back road games in Buffalo and New Jersey in which they picked up three out of a possible four points. Colorado has one regulation loss over its past seven games and that occurred in Nashville. The Avs’ are so dangerous with the emergence of rookie-of-the-year favorite Gabriel Landeskog, the return of star Matt Duchene, the outstanding play of Jamie McGinn since coming over from San Jose, not to mention a defense that has been getting better with each passing week. The Rangers are laboring. They’re coming off that high-profile game against Pittsburgh in Sidney Crosby’s return. They have the Devils and Red Wings on deck and they’ve lost four straight to playoff teams New Jersey, Ottawa, Chicago and Pittsburgh. The Rangers only two wins over their past six have occurred against the Islanders in OT and Carolina playing its third game in four days (the Canes are 0-9 in that situation this season). Colorado is in a playoff position right now and they’re playing like a high caliber playoff team. Big overlay here. Play: Colorado +170 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis -½ +113 over TAMPA BAY
It’s not customary for us to be laying road pucks but the fact that 42-year-old netminder Dwayne Roloson gets the call for the Lightning has us confident in doing so. Roloson has been sitting on the bench for weeks. When Mathieu Garon was hurt, Tampa elected to go with rookie call-up Dustin Torkoski. The kid has played decent but he’s their goaltender of the future and with such a poor defense, they don’t want to ruin his confidence playing at this level. Instead, they’ll let Roloson get embarrassed and if he continues to play, that’s exactly what will happen, just like we saw with Marty Turco last week. The Blue Notes are the stingiest team in the NHL and the best news is that they’re coming off back-to-back losses to Chicago and Carolina. The last time they lost three in a row came right around Christmas when they were beaten by Detroit twice and Nashville. It’s the only time all season they’ve lost three in a row. Incidentally, Cam Ward was sensational when he shutout the Blues last game. This Blues team hates to lose. They can’t wait to get back to work and there’s little chance that this washed up goaltender with his .881 save percentage and 3.76 GAA is going to stop them. The last two games Roloson started, Tampa lost them both by scores of 8-1 and 7-3. No luck of the Irish will be needed here. Play: St. Louis -½ +113 (Risking 2 units).
Andrew Lange
UMass at Seton Hall
Play: UMass +7
Early start here in the NIT and a matchup that will be won by who brings the most intensity. Seton Hall didn't look very sharp in its first round win over Stony Brook, escaping with a 63-61 win. Now they face a squad in UMass that requires 40 minutes of concentration. If not, the Minutemen will run the Pirates out of the gym – similar to what they did for much of the time in their win at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs finally woke up but it was too late as UMass (+6.5) won outright in overtime. Look for UMass's relentless press and tempo to cause problems for a potentially lethargic home side in this 11 am local start.
Free NCAAB Release For 3/17/2012: Syracuse -4.5 over Kansas State. With the public jumping on the Wildcats in this matchup, we see the value with the Orange in this line. Syracuse's Perception took a hit when they announced that Fab Melo will be ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. But this Orange team has so much talent, and one of the most balanced attacks in the Country. Look for seniors Kris Joseph and Scoop Jardine to step up big today. Statistically, the Orange outscore, outshoot, outdefend, and outbench the Wildcats. They've burned their backers lately, going just 1-7 at the window in their last 8. But we like them with the small spread. The Orange are 33-2 SU this year. The odds are pretty good that they'll win this one by 5 or better. In all games away from home this year, the Wildcats went 6-4 SU and outscored their opponents by an average of 1.8 points/game. The Orange went 9-1 away from home, outscoring their opponents by an average 9.8 points/game. Kansas State is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. We'll lay the 4.5 on the #1 seed today.
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NHL Predictions
Colorado Avalanche +165
The Avalanche are coming off a 1-0 shootout loss in New Jersey, but had won 5 of the previous 6 games. They now have won 5 of 7 with points in 6 of their last 7 games. The Avs are now 38-30-5 on the season which has them in 8th place in the Western Conference. Colorado is a respectable 17-15-4 on the road. The New York Rangers still sit in first place in the Eastern Conference, but have lost 4 of their last 6 games. Their latest was a 5-2 loss at home against Crosby and the Penguins. Their other losses came against playoff teams in Chicago, Ottawa and New Jersey, with their two wins coming against non-playoff teams in the Islanders and Carolina. The Rangers are 44-19-7 on the season and 24-8-2 on home ice. No goalie confirmation has been made for either team, but I handicapped this game with either Colorado goaltender vs Lundqvist. If Lundqvist is still sick with the flu that works in our favor. Varlamov is likely to get the start, even with JS Giguere coming off of the shutout. Varlamov has won 3 straight games and 8 of his last 10 starts. Colorado is 12-5 in their last 17 vs Eastern Conference opponents. Although you can’t look much at match ups between East and West teams, the Avs have won 4 of their last 5 meetings in New York and 9 of the last 11 meetings overall. With the way Colorado is playing right now, which includes solid goaltending, they have good value at +165 tonight. I’ll take the underdogs to surprise many.
Predators / Kings Over 5
The Predators are coming off a shootout loss, but have won 3 of their last 4 games. They have scored 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 7 games. Pekka Rinne has been good, but he has allowed 14 goals against in his last 5 games. The Los Angeles Kings have won three straight heading into tonight. They have scored 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 8 games, which includes 5 games with 4 or more goals. A Kings team that had a lot of troubles scoring has now gotten going, and the OVER is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games. The OVER is also 3-1-1 in the Predators last 5 overall. Note that Quick has let in 2+ goals in 7 straight starts – although not bad numbers overall, he hasn’t been perfect. These two teams have met 3 times this season, with 2 of the 3 games going OVER the posted total. We have seen totals of 7, 3, and 9 (the latest being the 9 goal game March 6th). Take note that the OVER is also 5-1 in their last 6 meetings overall dating back to last season. Take the OVER.
Hollywood Sports
Colorado at Baylor
Prediction: Baylor
The Bears (28-7) started slow against South Dakota State and trailed early on by 12 points before getting it together and cruising to a 68-60 win. That experience should help ensure that Baylor comes out better in this rematch against their former Big 12 foe. Led by 6'11" sophomore Perry Jones III, the Bears starting five is too talented for Colorado to keep up. Colorado has overachieved this season by winning the Pac-12 tournament -- but the question needs to be asked if this says more about the strength of the Buffaloes or the overall weakness of that conference this season. Colorado was able to nail 7 of their 12 shots from behind the arc (58.3%) in their 68-64 win over a UNLV team that played their best basketball months ago. They are unlikely to replicate that feat tonight. But there were a couple of worrisome elements to their win on Thursday. First, the Buffaloes took a 20-point lead at the 12-minute mark of the second half but then only scored five points over the next ten minutes of play. They cannot do that against Baylor. Secondly, they turned the ball over 23 times which is very worrisome when facing the talent, length and depth that the Bears will offer. Look for Baylor's talent to overwhelm this overachieving Colorado team. Lay the points.