Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, March 19,2011

Charlie Scott

Temple vs. San Diego St
Play: Over 125

San Diego St receives national attention for their stellar play on defense, but they don't receive a lot of attention for their ability to score on offense. With players DJ Gay, Billy White, Malcolm Thomas, and Kawhi Leonard, the Aztecs can score in the 70's vs any College team. Temple, a battle tested team out of the Atlantic 10, prefers to play at a little faster pace and can score in the high 60's, low 70's. In NCAA Tournament play, look to play Over low totals with teams that can score on offense and Coaches who will extend games & points at the end by fouling.

John Ryan

Kansas State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Kansas State +3

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that K-State will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a coaching angle that is difficult to dispute. Head Coach Martin is 12-1 against the money line making +11.5 units facing teams who average 6 or less steals per game on the season after 15 or more games as the coach of K-State. Consider an optional Parlay with the ‘OVER” and K-State for no more than a 5* amount.

Jim Feist

Charlotte Bobcats vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +11

It's been a successful trip for the Bobcats, beating Portland before they left then winning at Toronto. This is the end of that road trip and they take on an older San Antonio team that is in the second of a back to back spot. The Spurs are off a game that is far bigger than this one, playing state rival Dallas last night. Can't see the Spurs being as fired up for this one and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Play the Bobcats!

EZWINNERS

Kentucky Wildcats -3.5

The Cats survived a scare from Princeton in the opening round, while West Virginia beat Clemson to setup this rematch of last years tournament. This years West Virginia team still does the things that you expect a Bob Huggins team to do and that is rebound and play defense, but they can really struggle on offense at times. I expect the Wildcats to be able to get out and run and do a better job of shooting from deep this time around. Last year Kentucky struggled from the perimeter, but with Brandon Knight, Darius Miller and Doron Lamb, this Kentucky squad is the best three point shooting team in the SEC. Look for the Cats to avenge their loss to West Virginia in the Elite Eight a year ago. Lay the points.

Nelly

College of Charleston + over Cleveland State

Cleveland State caught some good fortune to win in the opening round of the NIT, getting a huge edge a the free throw line and hitting a few timely 3-point shots to beat Vermont despite being out-shot percentage-wise and being badly out-rebounded. The Vikings appeared to be the team to beat in the Horizon early in the year but this squad has been beset by injuries and faded down the stretch. Cleveland State is just 2-8 ATS in the past ten games including the failed cover against Vermont on Tuesday. College of Charleston was fortunate to get a home game as the worse seed against Dayton but the Cougars made the most of it in a 94-84 win. Charleston got 30 points from the free throw line and shot 54 percent but Dayton rates as a stronger foe than Cleveland State. Charleston is 10-6 this season in road and neutral site games and the defensive numbers over the last five games are vastly superior for the Cougars in comparison. Wofford acquitted itself well in the NCAA tournament so the Southern Conference may be a better league than most give it credit. Cleveland State did finish 17-2 at home this season and thusly is the favorite in this match-up but the enthusiasm for this game may side with the road underdog coming off a meaningful NIT win. Cleveland State has failed to cover in five straight home games and this game should go down to the wire.

Marc Lawrence

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

When the Grizzlies returns home to host the Pacers in a non conference clash this evening Memphis will take the court knowing it is an eye-opening 14-1 ATS against unrested opposition this season. Catching Indiana off a triple revenge upset win over the Bulls last night, we'll look for the Grizzlies to improve to 7-0 ATS in this series this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Memphis.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Cincinnati +4

The public is all over UConn following its Big East tournament title and blowout win over Bucknell and that's precisely where the books want them. The Huskies will have their work cut out for themselves here against Big East rival Cincy, which has won 2 of the last 3 in the series. Under Calhoun, UConn is just 19-31 ATS when playing away from home after a blowout win by 20 points or more. Also under Calhoun, the Huskies are just 20-33 ATS when playing away from home after 6 or more consecutive wins. It is also worth noting that the Huskies are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Bearcats, which completely shut down Missouri's potent offensive attack, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Cincy knows the UConn well, and it has the ability, as one of the best defensive teams in the dance, to hold Kemba Walker and company in check. Cincy lost the regular season meeting by 8 points, but it was minus-18 from three-point range as UConn made 4 more threes than its season average. I don't see that happening again, which means the Bearcats are showing decent value in the underdog role here. Take the points.

Matt Fargo

Kansas State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Kansas State +3.5

Kansas St. was able to withstand a Utah St. rally on Thursday and take out the Aggies to advance to the second round. The Wildcats did not play a very good game as they shot just 40.7 percent from the floor including 29.4 percent from long range but they made up for it with an 85.7 percent effort from the charity stripe and a similar effort from the free throw line would bean added benefit tonight. The Wildcats come into the tournament peaking at the right time and a bad game should reverse into a good game tonight. We can look for an opposite result from Wisconsin however. The Badgers won over Belmont as they shot 50 percent from the floor and that is more of an aberration than the norm. The Badgers were 12-22 from three-point land, led by Jordan Taylor’s 5-9 effort from behind the arc. Wisconsin is an above average three-point shooting team, hitting 37.7 percent on the season which is 43rd in the nation but we will not see another 54.5 percent effort like Thursday as the opposing defense will have something to say. If the Wildcats’ first-half defense against Utah St. was any indication, they have a great chance to put a strain on the sometimes inept Wisconsin offense. The defense is what carries them which is the case with the Badgers so the similar styles benefit Kansas St. and it is longer and more athletic than Wisconsin. While the Wildcats allowed more ppg than Wisconsin, it allowed a lower shooting percentage including a whopping six percent less in road games for both teams. The Badgers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after a game where they shot better than 50 percent from long range. Also, Wisconsin is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games away from home after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. Kansas St. meanwhile is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Jacob Pullen remembers the Badgers taking out the Wildcats in the Big Dance three years ago by 17 points and the Wildcats get their revenge for him. 3* Kansas St. Wildcats

Frank Jordan

West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Play: West Virginia +4

West Virginia is coming off a nice win over Clemson by eight points simply by out scoring them with 86 point game. Kentucky snuck by Princeton by a mere two points in a scare that no one seem would happen. In this one look for a higher scoring game like West Virginia scored then the lower scoring game Kentucky did as the offenses take over and West Virginia is the winner in the end. Play West Virginia

Cajun Sports

Temple vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State -6

The San Diego State Aztecs take the court in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament versus the Temple Owls. San Diego State is 33-2 SU on the season going 21-12 ATS over that span. Playing on the highway has not been a problem for this Aztecs team as they are an outstanding 19-1 SU and 13-7 against the number. In those games, they average 70.3 points per game shooting 46 percent while allowing their opponents just 59.8 points per game on 39.4 percent from the field. They are 5-0 SU their last 5 contests and 4-1 against the number. Temple has also played well this season with a record of 26-7 SU but only 17-15 against the spread. Their road record is not bad at 12-7 SU and 10-8 ATS. They enter tonight’s contest off a squeaker versus Penn State winning 66 to 64 as a two-point favorite and prior to that they lost a tough one to Richmond 58 to 54 as a four-point favorite. They step way up in class here against a solid overall Aztec team who can score the ball and defend which will allow them to control the tempo and pace of the contest. Temple after losing their last two games against the spread has gone 7-17 ATS and if they are now a road underdog, they are 4-13 ATS. Temple is a perfect 0-5 ATS in this price range during the post-season. We want to Play AGAINST CBB teams coming off a SU win and going Over as a favorite in their last game if they are now playing on the post-season road, these teams are 55-80-4 ATS. The Aztecs are 13-4 ATS coming off two ATS wins and now installed as a post-season favorite. If the Aztecs are coming off two straight up victories over non-conference opponents and are now a post-season favorite they are a perfect 5-0 against the spread. We want to Play ON CBB teams off an ATS win and going Under in their last two games if they are now playing in the post-season, these teams are 30-13-1 ATS. Lay the points as the Aztecs advance and send a decent Owls team home. Cajun Sports has dominated the college basketball hardwood the last ninety days going 50-30-4 ATS for +2985 Units of profit. Make sure you join the award winning team at Cajun Sports for another solid College Basketball Post Season.

Craig Trapp

Morehead State vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -4

Great upset in round one but remember the glue for UofL went down and most likely cost them a win. RICH on other hand has been on a roll the last month winning 9 of 10 both straight up and ATS. Best player on court is on our side as Anderson is so good and today he carries his team to another big win.

Rob Vinciletti

West Virginia vs. Kentucky
Play: West Virginia +4

Lets see if we can these free plays back on track, they have been mediocre this week. West Virginia is taking 3-4 points here today and we note that they are 12-2ats vs an opponent off a win in tourney action. Over the last 12 years #5 seeds have covered 13 of the past 17 times as a dog. Many will be on Kentucky just for the fact that they have tournament knockout revenge form last years J. Wall team. Both teams are not as talented as last year. Kentucky is the 4 seed and four seeds have lost 20 of 27 against the spread since 2003 in the second round. The SEC Conference has struggled as a favorite in this round failing 12 of the last 14 times heading into this season. Look for West Virginia to keep this one close and at the very least cover the spread.

TEDDY COVERS

UCLA @ Florida
PICK: Florida -5

UCLA’s complete collapse down the stretch against Michigan State leaves them in a precarious position heading into Saturday’s matchup with the Florida Gators. The Bruins did their absolute best to blow a 23 point lead in the final eight minutes against the Spartans, falling apart in every possible way. That leaves a team that wasn’t loaded with confidence to begin with searching for answers 2500 miles away from home against a superior foe.

This is a virtual home game for Billy Donovan’s squad, a team playing the ‘no respect’ card after getting abused by some talking heads on TV for their #2 seeding and their blowout loss to Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game. The Gators spent a good portion of the season struggling to put teams away, consistently unable to win by margin. But, over the final month of the campaign, Florida finally started covering spreads as a favorite, and they haven’t stopped: 5-0 SU & ATS in their last five tries as chalk of three points or more.

Let’s not forget that this Gators squad is 11-3 SU against other Big Dance entrants, while the Bruins are 0-5 on the highway against NCAA tournament caliber foes. UCLA might hang around for a while, but at some point, look for the Gators to pull away. 2* Take Florida

SEAN MURPHY

UCLA @ Florida
PICK: Florida -5

One of my biggest regrets in the first two days of this tournament was leaving Florida off of my dance card on Thursday. Perhaps no team in the field carries a bigger chip on its shoulder than the Gators.

Florida jumped ahead early and never looked back against Santa Barbara, clicking in all facets of the game en route to a dominating 79-51 victory. A much stiffer test awaits on Saturday, but I feel the Gators match up well with the Bruins, and there's no doubt Billy Donovan will have his team ready.

I mentioned that the Gators have a chip on their shoulder, and that's a product of their blowout loss at the hands of Kentucky in the SEC Tournament championship last Sunday. Last year's opening round loss to BYU also remains fresh in their minds. There were more than a few Florida doubters entering this tournament, and even after Thursday's win, some still remain.

I'm not sure how you can knock a Gators team that has won 11 of its last 13 games, and owns a 6-1-1 ATS mark over its last eight contests. In spite of last Sunday's no-show, this is a team that's playing some of its best basketball of the season.

The Gators are getting into the 70s on a regular basis, and I'm not convinced that UCLA can keep up for 40 minutes. It's worth noting that UCLA has scored more than 70 points in regulation time in only three of its last 13 games. Florida has broken 70 in five of its last six games, scoring 80+ in two of those. While it is easier to slow a game down than speed it up, if the Gators continue their hot shooting (49.5% over their last five games), the Bruins will be hard-pressed to do so.

The Bruins have been a nice money-maker for us this season, but I think their journey ends here. Thursday's win over Michigan State was somewhat concerning given the fact UCLA nearly squandered an 18-point halftime lead. The Bruins won that game by two points due in large part to a massive disparity at the free throw line. They got there 47 times while the Spartans made only 21 trips.

With this game being played in Tampa, it's essentially a home game for the Gators. UCLA has already exceeded most expectations by winning its tournament opener against Michigan State. Look for the Bruins to fall flat against a superior opponent on Saturday afternoon. Take Florida.