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Kyung Ho Kang -102 over Alex CaceresFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In a bout that was supposed to take place back in November, two exciting lightweights face off in the octagon. Known for his unorthodox fighting style and quirky personality displayed when he was on the Ultimate Fighter, Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres (8-5) comes into this fight the winner of three of his last four bouts. Caceres has shown that he has the ability to hit opponents with flashy strikes and while he has decent jiu jitsu, he has displayed that when taken down he can become vulnerable.
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Making his UFC debut, Kyung Ho Kang (11-6) is a well-rounded judo practitioner with excellent submission skills, having earned eight of his eleven victories by submission. Being the bigger fighter, look for Kang to use his size and wrestling/judo skills to implement takedowns and try to work for a submission to finish the fight. While Caceres is also comfortable fighting off of the ground, Kang’s skills simply outclass him.
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Yushin Okami +175 over Hector LombardFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Putting to rest the notion of a drop-in performance with a victory in his last fight, Yushin Okami looks to continue his winning ways against the dangerous Hector Lombard. Standing 6’2” to Lombard’s 5’9”, Okami (29-7) enters this fight with a nice height advantage. While Lombard (32-3-1-1 No Contest) definitely has the power to test Okami’s chin (which admittedly has looked questionable recently), we believe that Okami will be able to use his reach to keep Lombard at a distance and use his size to get Lombard against the fence, putting Lombard in his clinch and securing takedowns. Okami is a smart fighter. He knows that Lombard’s best chance of winning is on the feet and catching him with one his power shots. In what should be an ugly fight, look for Okami to grind out the victory and derail another possible title contender’s chances. At the price that Okami is being offered, he is definitely worth placing a wager on.
Brett Atkins
One of two free winners for tonight, I am siding with Marshall to get it done against Houston, as the Thundering Herd finish the regular season with two of its last three games on the road, starting today at Houston.
Marshall (12-16, 5-8 Conference USA) has had a week between games, so there's been plenty of time to recover from last Saturday's 52-48 loss to UAB. Nonetheless, Marshall was successful in its last road game, an 82-70 victory at Central Florida.
And even though the Herd is just 1-9 in true road games this season, I like its chances against the Cougars (15-11, 4-9 C-USA), who are in off a 63-53 loss at UTEP on Wednesday, their third consecutive defeat.
Look for an intense battle of the two best rebounding teams in the conference, both averaging 38.6 boards per game. What stands out for me, though, is how the Herd handled Houston in the second half of the first meeting.
After trailing by eight points at halftime back on Feb. 22, Marshall erupted for a 34-7 run to begin the second half and pull away for a 66-58 over Houston at the Cam Henderson Center.
I think that'll provide the confidence for Marshall, to be able to come in here and pull off an outright upset. And oh yes, coach Tom Herrion has never lost to Houston, with a 3-0 all-time record.
2♦ MARSHALL
Brad Wilton
Your Saturday comp play release is Duquesne plus the points at La Salle.
Let's not kid ourselves, the Iron Dukes are not going to win this game outright, but keep in mind that no one thought they were going to win outright the last time they journeyed from the Steel City to the City of Brotherly Love, as the Iron Dukes were able to win outright at Temple as the double-digit dog on February 14th.
The Explorers have likely locked up an at-large bid to their first Big Dance since 1992, but this is a game I can see them taking a little too lightly and having to scramble from an early deficit to come back for the win, but not the cover.
This is just a big number, and the Explorers are just 3-4-2 against the spread at home this season.
Duquesne has won and covered 3 of the last 4 series meetings, and the road team in this rivalry is 8-2 against the spread the last 10 times the schools have squared off.
La Salle is 19-7 on the year, and they will get win #20, however they will not cover in this spot.
Take the Iron Dukes plus the points.
2♦ DUQUESNE
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie is Memphis to take out some frustration on Central Florida.
The Tigers got started just a bit too late earlier this week at their 18 game win streak was halted at Xavier. That loss also was their first loss all season long on the road.
Expect Memphis which pounded UCF 93-71 in the first meeting to run their series win and cover streak to four in a row both straight up and against the spread.
The Tigers have claimed the victory in nine of the last ten series meetings, while sporting a 7-2-1 against the spread mark.
The Golden Knights do stand at 19-9 for the year, but they are on probation due to sanctions, so I am not so sure how motivated they will be if they fall behind early - which I expect since the Tigers will be itching to get out of the blocks fast after their slow start on Tuesday.
Josh Pastner's team really needs to win these last few games in convincing fashion, and today they do just that.
Tigers roll big.
5♦ MEMPHIS
Craig Davis
Your free play is on the Milwaukee Bucks over Toronto.
The Bucks have seemingly turned things around after losing seven of eight games by beating the Mavs and Rockets on the road over their last two games.
No, it's not necessarily a reason to get excited if you're a Bucks fan, but you have to be a little bit optimistic of a possible playoff seed if they can just play .500 the rest of the way. They are six games clear of the Sixers for the 8th and final seed in the Eastern Conference.
They are starting to get contributions from their bench and hitting more of their free throws, which was haunting them during those mini losing streaks.
As for Toronto, well, I guess it's just another one of those seasons despite recently having a five-game winning streak until just recently.
Indiana, New York, Denver, etc. Those were some of the teams they beat during that span, but things have quickly fallen apart again.
Losses to the Cavs and Wizards followed up by last night's 12-point home loss to Indiana gives me all I need to know.
They got hot for a small stretch but now are back to playing like themselves.
Milwaukee should dominate and I'm taking them as your free play of the day.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is going to be on William and Mary getting it done at home against James Madison.
Winners in four of its last five games, William and Mary closes out the regular season tonight by hosting host Senior Night at Kaplan Arena. And right after the Tribe honors its five member senior class of manager Ryan Brown, Brett Goodloe, Doug Howard, Andrew Pavloff and Matt Rum prior to tip-off, I suspect we're going to see a high-powered attack against its arch-rival.
James Madison won an 81-71 victory earlier this season in Harrisonburg. But make note last season, William and Mary defeated James Madison in Williamsburg, 68-61. The home team has won three straight meetings, but William and Mary has won three of the last five meetings overall.
And during its current 4-1 run, Bill and Mary is averaging 74.4 points per game over the stretch. Part of that streak can be attributed to the hot shooting from the perimeter, as the Tribe ranks 46th nationally in 3-point percentage (37.3) and 48th in field goal percentage (46.0).
I expect a well-rounded contest from William and Mary, so lay the easy chalk.
2♦ WILLIAM AND MARY
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the low chalk Vanderbilt Commodores, who have won three of their last four and are back on the road for their second meeting with the Auburn Tigers. The 'Dores knocked off Auburn back on Jan. 23 by eight, 73-61.
Vanderbilt (12-15, 6-9) has now won the the last seven games in the series, and should be in the right mindset for this game, after a thrilling, 63-62, win over Georgia on Wednesday night at Memorial Gym. Down by 12 at the half, the Commodores stormed back and used a Kevin Bright jumper with 0.8 seconds to come away with a rousing victory.
Auburn (9-19, 3-12), meanwhile, has lost six in a row - four of them by double digits. In getting hammered by Kentucky, Arkansas, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama, the Tigers have been outscored by 18.1 points since Feb. 9.
The Commodores have covered 20 of 27 after an ATS setback, and are on a 5-2 run versus the books - all in SEC play. Conversely, the Tigers are mired in ATS slides of 0-4 after failing to cover, 0-5 after failing to win and 2-7 with teams that can't win on the road.
Take the road chalk.
2♦ VANDERBILT
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Miami FL +6.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hmm. Duke, at Cameron Indoor Stadium where they are 63-3 SU L4Y, including 16-0 SU this year, off a loss, 73-68 at VA, and playing with 90-63 revenge for a Jan 23rd defeat in Miami. Seems like a no brainer. That is, unless you watch each of these teams play as much as I have. Duke is always better than its individual parts. With no disrespect to this year's roster, including Curry and Plumlee, it is the teaching of Coack K and his staff that has that program in the top 10 each season. But unless I've missed something, 2nd year Miami HC Larranaga is not far behind in this area. And clearly he has the better players. Scott and Larkin are the superior guard tandem. A healthy Johnson is a beast on the interior. Kadji is the country's best stretch 4, and veteran Gamble cleans up on the interior. Since ascending to top 5 status, the Canes have gotten a bit full of themselves, reaching their nadir in a 80-65 dump at Wake. But the feel good buffer came with 78-58 victory at home vs VA Tech. Only their three game league lead and overconfidence from 27 point earlier win, prevents this outright victory. But what quality team comes flat in Cameron.
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Rutgers at GeorgetownFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Rutgers +14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Georgetown Hoyas have been as good as anyone in the Big East, as they have caught fire late in the season, and have run off 10 straight wins. Georgetown is off of a huge physical, and emotional battle at UConn, where they came back from 7 down with 1:45 left in the second overtime to squeeze out a 1-point win. It will be very easy for this team to come out flat vs. a Rutgers team that won't get their juices flowing. Rutgers may be only 13-13 on the season, but this has been a competitive team in league play. Rutgers has suffered just one loss by more than 12 points in their last 14 conference tilts. Go with Rutgers.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Butler +7 over VCU: Both of these team have had nice years once again and both are in a battle for the A-10 title in their first years in the league. I know that VCU is at home where they have gone 13-2 on the year, but I don't feel that they should be a favorite of this much. Butler has just two losses on the year of more than 4 points and they are a solid 6-2 SU on the road. This team play s very hard and in this nationally televised game you can bet they will play hard once again and till the final buzzer. VCU does have the advantage on the offensive end, but Butler gets a slight edge on defense allowing just 62.6 ppg on 41.1% shooting, while VCU allows 63.8 ppg on 44.1% shooting. On the road the Bulldogs have been a bit tougher allowing teams to hit just 38.5% of their shots. Defense will be key here and I feel that Butler's defense will be enough to keep this one close.
Alabama +16.5 over FLORIDA: I know that Florida has outscored their opponent by a gazzillion ppg at home, but this is not a series that has had many blowouts over the years. In the last 10 meetings between these teams there has been just one game that decided by more than 11 points and 8 of those games have been decided by single digits. The Gators have the clear advantage on offense, but both of these defenses are very tough. The Gators come in having allowed just 53.5 ppg overall and they are 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency, while Bama has allowed 58.5 ppg overall, including a mere 51.8 ppg in their last 12 non-OT games. In those 12 games they allowed more than 56 points (58) just once. This team plays some lock down defense. In a game where the pace should be slow (both teams are 294th or higher in pace), limiting possessions and with two awesome defenses teams on the court we should get another tight ball game here with the Gators winning by no more than 8 or 9.
MTSU/ Western Kentucky Over 130: Neither team plays at a high tempo but these two teams are 1 & 2 in offensive efficiency in Sun Belt games this year. MTSU has been excellent on offense of late, having scored at least 66 points in each of their last 13 games, averaging 75.6 ppg over that stretch. On the road, MTSU has hit at least 66 points in each of their last 6 away from home, averaging 68 ppg over that stretch. Defensively MTSU is one of the best in the Sun Belt, but WKU's offense has been nearly unstoppable of late, averaging 80.4 ppg in their last 5 games. The Hilltoppers have scored 65 or more in 7 of their last 8 games and they have averaged 69.5 ppg at home. WKU's games have been very high scoring in their last 5 games and it isn't just due to their offense, but because of a defense that has allowed 75.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Both offenses are rolling right now and one team can play defense at all right now. I clearly expect both team to put up at least 65 in this one and overall I will call for at least 140 points scored.
More later
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SMU at UABFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UABFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UAB got off to a sluggish start to C-USA play in part because six of its first seven games were against the top five teams in the conference. During that span they were overwhelmed at times but towards the end of that stretch we saw some potential as the Blazers beat UTEP and lost to a quality Southern Miss squad by four. Once the schedule got softer, UAB was able to parlay those experiences and pointspread value into a current 5-1 SU/ATS run. Some of that value has worn off but the fact remains, this is a much improved team, playing its best of the season, at home, against a weak opponent.
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"If you plan it, I was planning a few more wins earlier in the year," Haase said. "This is the time to be playing the best basketball and that certainly is the case for us. We've been continuing to get better every year."
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SMU has been competitive in Larry Brown's first season but they don't have much of a track record on the road in C-USA play even against mediocre opponents with losses by 11, 9, 9, and 11. Their road wins were against Rice (5-22) and Marshall (the most schizophrenic in the country).
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Statistically, from a conference play perspective, there isn't much that separates these two teams. But, when we consider current form and venue, the modest price is worth a play on the home side.
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Ottawa +152 over PHILADELPHIA
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OT included. Since suffering the most key injuries of any team in the NHL, the Ottawa Senators continue to thrive. The Sens have picked up points in six straight games, winning five and losing just one in OT to the Bruins in Boston. Ottawa is receiving outstanding goaltending from Ben Bishop, they give you very little space out there and the Sens’ style is one the Flyers are not comfortable playing against. Philly much prefers those wide-open, high scoring games but chances are they won’t get that here.
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Ilya Bryzgalov has been inconsistent for Philadelphia and anytime a club has an edge in net, as the Sens do here, they have a good chance of winning. Among other factors that make the Flyers unappealing here is that they’re 1-5 in their last six games following a win. Philly is also 0-4 against the Northeast Division while the Senators are 4-0 this season when playing on one day’s rest. Current flows suggest that the Senators most certainly warrant a play.
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Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee BucksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Milwaukee BucksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bucks are trying to hang on to their playoff spot, which is gradually seemingly slipping from them. They have been playing feebly since the end of January. The Raptors defend the 3 ball well, which will be important, going against the 3 point assault of Milwaukee. Toronto has been awful on the road, which looks gloomy for them traveling to Milwaukee here. Even though the Bucks don’t play necessarily tough at home, but it will be enough, the Bucks can cause some turnovers, with their pressure D from Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, and of course, Larry Sanders in the paint with his big mitts.
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Youngstown State vs. Wright State
Play: Wright StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Youngstown St put up a valiant effort in their last game at Valparaiso as the Penguins only lost that game 73-64. They actually held a 7-point lead at the half, but couldn’t hold on to that lead. Youngstown St has played their last two games without leading scorer Kenrick Perry, and they’ve put-up back-to-back solid efforts. The Penguins are now in a letdown spot after losing a close game to the conference leader, and without Perry’s services for this game, we expect Youngstown St to throw in a clunker this afternoon. Wright St will be playing their final home game of the season, and the Raiders will come with a peak performance. They come into today’s game off back-to-back losses, including a loss in their most recent home game. Wright St has played well at home all season as they are holding opponents to just 59 points per game on their court. The Raiders also play at a slow pace which is the opposite of Youngstown St’s preferred fast-pace style. Wright St also holds an inside edge in this game which will allow them to get some easy baskets and also more free throw attempts; they hit 71.7% from the free throw line. We like the setup for this game so we’ll lay the points with the home team as they come with a strong effort and win this game by double digits.
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New Jersey -106 over BUFFALOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT Included. While struggling, the Sabres made an ill-advised coaching change and they subsequently lost their next two games. What followed that was a two-game trip to Florida, where Buffalo won a pair of games over the Panthers and Lightning. Suddenly things don’t look so bad anymore. Or so it seems. Those two wins are fool’s gold as the Sabres were completely dominated by both the Bolts and Panthers. Combined, Buffalo was outshot 74-46 and out-chanced by an incredible 42-15 count in that pair of wins. Chalk four points up to Ryan Miller but winning games when being so badly outclassed is unsustainable.
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The Devils come in here as hungry for a win as any team in the NHL. New Jersey has dropped five of six and that allows us an opportunity to buy low. Unlike the Sabres, the Devils are not getting outplayed. They’ve hit a bit of a snag in their offense but they continue to play a systematic, strong game night in and night out. New Jersey allows its opponents very few scoring chances and in order for the Sabres to win here they’re likely going to need another huge game from Ryan Miller. A disciplined and well-coached New Jersey club easily gets the call here against a team that remains in trouble.
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Anaheim +105 over PHOENIXFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Two seasons ago Mike Smith was Tampa Bay’s #1 goaltender. That didn’t last too long mainly due to his mediocrity and Dwayne Roloson became the Bolts’ top guy. Smith was subsequently dealt to Phoenix, where he was a contender last season for the Hart Trophy, a prize awarded to the player most valuable to his team. This season, he’s back to being Mike Smith, a career average goaltender that has had one great season in seven years as a pro. The Coyotes have lost three of their past four games. Against the offensively challenged Wild and Flames, Smith allowed four and five goals respectively. Against the Blue Jackets recently, the netminder allowed three goals on 20 shots and when the high-powered Blackhawks came in here in January, Smith allowed six goals on 16 shots. The Ducks offense has scored one less goal than Chicago’s in two less games.
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Anaheim is as good as its 15-3-1 record suggests. They’re an offensive powerhouse with solid goaltending and quick, puck-moving defensemen. The Ducks lost to Phoenix on March 31 last season by a score of 4-0. That’s after Anaheim was officially eliminated from playoff contention. Prior to that game, they Ducks beat the Coyotes, 4-1, 6-2, and 4-1 in the other three games played last season. This year, the Ducks are better, the Coyotes are worse and Mike Smith isn’t bailing out the host anymore
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Los Angeles +111 over VANCOUVERFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. These two have played one game against each other this year back on Jan 28 and the Kings won 3-2 in OT. That was when the Kings were not sharp. As an eight seed in last year’s playoffs against the top-seeded Canucks, it was a complete whitewash by the Kings as they disposed of these Canucks in five games. Now the Kings are hot again, having won six straight with most of those being in dominating fashion. Psychologically, physically and momentum wise, give a huge edge to the Kings, as they know they have this hosts’ number and there’s nothing Vancouver can do about it.
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The Canucks have dropped five of seven including an 8-3 loss to the Red Wings. They’ve now allowed 12 goals against in their past two and four goals or more against in all five of those losses. The Kings are 5-1 in the last six meetings and 4-1 in the last five in Vancouver. No reason to believe that is about to change here.
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Nashville +133 over SAN JOSEFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Following the Predators 5-1 loss at Anaheim on Wednesday, long time Nashville coach Barry Trotz was livid, saying it was the worst effort he’s ever had in the 13 years he’s been behind the Nashville bench. No team in the NHL has been as resilient as this Nashville group has been over the years. Every time the Predators are written off, they respond and we can almost assure you a strong and extremely focused effort tonight against this beatable favorite.
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San Jose has two wins over its last dozen games and one of those occurred in OT against the Avalanche at the Shark Tank. Over that stretch, the Sharks have scored one goal or less in eight of 12 games. For San Jose, the issues that has haunted them in the playoffs for years, that being the inability to perform under pressure, remains the same, only this season it has carried over to the fast-paced and pressure filled regular season. The Sharkies have no appeal as a significant favorite over a Nashville team and coach that is rested and in a very foul mood.